Recruiting remains hit or miss proposition

[Harry]

On national signing day, every college coach, every recruit and every friend and family member is an incurable optimist, and what's the harm in that?

At this point, every recruit who signs on the dotted line Wednesday has a chance to excel along the lines of Pro Bowl quarterback Andy Dalton of Katy High School, and some may attain the potential Hall of Fame status of LaDainian Tomlinson of Waco University High School.

For most, however, the chance to be a multiyear letterman at a Football Bowl Subdivision school will be the best that major college football will offer. Many likely never will start a college game, and a double-digit proportion never will letter or enroll.

That's the probable fate of the 2012 recruiting class, based on an examination of entering recruits from 1997 through 2006 at the 10 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision schools in Texas. That group includes about 2,200 high school and junior college players who completed their college eligibility by 2010 and were eligible for the NFL draft by 2011.

If patterns continue, nearly one-half of Wednesday's signees could letter three or four years at their colleges.

Perhaps as many as one-third will line up as starters for at least two seasons.

One or two will attain All-America status, and a half-dozen will get a golden ticket in the NFL draft.

More than half never will spend an entire season as a starter.

One-quarter either won't enroll or never will earn a varsity letter.

Truth be told, men who have been following the inexact science of recruiting for many years think those numbers sound optimistic.

Read More: http://www.chron.com/sports/college-football/article/For-all-of-the-scouts-efforts-recruiting-2798839.php

[UNTLifer]

The best analysis of any class is always three, four or even five years down the road.

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

Also, you've got to recruit for what you need. Look at Bob Stoops and Mack Brown, they occasionally lose players because they sign too many to one position.

Just this season, OU had four former 4-/5-star running backs leave the program. A walk-on was their leading rusher. UT had some QBs transfer and are, surprisingly, struggling there.

I think when you look at our returning starters, who we had redshirting, and then look at who we are signing, you can easily come to the conclusion that McCarney has recruited to needs and is building up depth in key areas.

My only concern thus far is at DT. Had the two we signed last year panned out, I wouldn't be concerned. We will sign two this year, but that still leaves only five on the roster.

Funny, we now will have 7 tight ends on the roster and only 5 defensive tackles. I'd feel much better if the numbers were switched. Other than that, I've got no complaints.

Edited January 30, 2012 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

[Harry]

Also, you've got to recruit for what you need. Look at Bob Stoops and Mack Brown, they occasionally lose players because they sign too many to one position.

Just this season, OU had four former 4-/5-star running backs leave the program. A walk-on was their leading rusher. UT had some QBs transfer and are, surprisingly, struggling there.

I think when you look at our returning starters, who we had redshirting, and then look at who we are signing, you can easily come to the conclusion that McCarney has recruited to needs and is building up depth in key areas.

My only concern thus far is at DT. Had the two we signed last year panned out, I wouldn't be concerned. We will sign two this year, but that still leaves only five on the roster.

Funny, we now will have 7 tight ends on the roster and only 5 defensive tackles. I'd feel much better if the numbers were switched. Other than that, I've got no complaints.

Don't be surprised to see some guys that we recruited at defensive end to play DT. I think red shirt Austin Orr fits that category.