Handicapping the Sunbelt Hoops Field - One Cajun's Opinion

Coach Andy Mac · January 2, 2012

MT Blue Raiders - (odds) 1-2, Current Record 13-2 (2-0)

Be afraid of the Blue Raiders, be very afraid. The Blue Raiders are 13 - 2. Their only losses are on the road to a tough Belmont team and UAB. They beat UCLA and Ole Miss on the road by double digits. Kermit finally has things together. MT is shooting better than 50% from the field and 38% from the three. This may be the best Sunbelt team in the past 5 years. They also have a 4 man who will be better than the much acclaimed Tony Mitchell at UNT this year and is likely the SBC player of the year. If MT beats the Cajuns at home this week and avoids a loss to a talented FIU squad in Miami. They could very well be in the top 25 and be 20 - 2 when they travel to take on Vandy in late January. They also have two legitimate Division I head coaches assisting Davis. Win Case won two NAIA National Championships and former UNO head coach Monte Towe.

Denver Pioneers 4 - 1, 11-3 (1-1)

Denver returns everyone from last year's squad, plus added a talented Freshman who is the team's 3rd leading scorer. They shoot approx. 40% from the 3 (39.7) and over 80% from the FT line. They ended Utah State's home winning streak. They took a really bad home loss this week to UALR. This week is very important as they go on the road to stAte. If the Pioneers are going to win the West they have to take their show on the road. They play a tough to defend Princeton offense and are incredibly hard to beat in Denver.

UALR Trojans 15-1, 5 - 10 (2-0)

We learned from the Cajuns last year that non-conference record is not a good predictor of conference success. Well, the three win Trojans went on the road this past week and beat two of the better teams in the West Division. They have two very tough guards, who are not shooting the three very well, but at 5'10 they are both averaging double figures. One is averaging over 4 rebounds per game, the other is averaging 3.5. (Kadeem Coleby averages 4.5 rebounds per game). They also have a 6'10" newcomer from England who is their leading scorer. He also shoots 42% from the 3 and 80% from the line while grabbing 6 rpg. If it weren't for LaRon Dendy at MT, he would likely be Newcomer of the Year. **This may be a little high for the Troans, but winning the first two on the road in conference is impressive. Especially at Denver.***

UNT Mean Green 20 -1,, 8-7 (1-1)

Johnny Jones' team is still trying to find itself after losing a ton off of last years tournament runner up. 4 of their seven losses come to teams from the Big 12 or SEC. The Mean Green also have the most talented freshman (Tony Mitchell) in the conference who is still figuring things out after joining the team at semester. However, he is already shooting almost 60% from the floor and averaging 11 ppg and 7 rpg. And for a lesson in recruiting. UNT's three double digit scorers are all freshmen. With the amount of freshmen and the way Johnny Jones' teams play they could beat anyone or get beat on any night. However, if they could put it together they could definitely string some wins together in conference and will be a tough out in Hot Springs. If Tony Mitchell really gets it going, they could work themselves into an incredibly dangerous team.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 20-1, 7-8 (1-0)

The Cajuns started on the right foot with a conference win against FAU who was in the post season last year. However, FAU is struggling right now and it is difficult to determine how good that win really is. The Cajuns face a huge test this week in going to Middle and WKU. If they beat WKU (which is extremely possible, because WKU is in meltdown right now), they are playing with the house's money against MT on Saturday. An initial concern of mine at the beginning of the season was the Cajun's outside shooting, but as of late the Cajuns have been making enough shots to win and have been showing improvement. On most nights the Cajuns will need to hold their opponent under 65 points to win in conference, because I'm not sure how much fire power we have. If the Cajuns split this road trip they have a nice opportunity with two home games the following week to get to 4-1 in conference. Unfortunately, with the non-conference record it is likely Big Dance or bust for the post season. Although the non conference schedule did not include a lot of big names, no team the Cajuns lost to has a losing record as of today.

South Alabama Jags 20-1, 8-4 (0-1)

Return Freshman of the Year Augustine Rubit who is averaging a double-double. Beat a now hot LSU team early in the season and UAB. Had won 7 of their last 8 before dropping conference opener at Middle. Another scary thought is 5 of their top 6 scorers will return next year.

stAte RedWolves 35 -1, 7-8 (1-0)

Redwolves only go here because Brady is the coach. I know many think Brady was a terrible coach, because of what people said when he was at LSU. But X's & O's he is a great basketball coach once you get past the _____ly demeanor. The dismissal of preseason player of the year Martavious Adams will be too much for the Redwolves to overcome.

FIU Golden Panthers 50-1,

Very, very talented. Very, very inconsistent. Beat Coastal Carolina and WKU in Diddle by 20. Lost to a non-D1, Alabama State and Arkansas Pine Bluff. Two words will prevent FIU from winning the Sunbelt Conference...Isaiah Thomas. Like UNT could beat anybody or lose to anybody at anytime.

WKU Hilltoppers 100-1, 5-10 (1-1)

The Toppers are shooing below 40% from the field and below 30% from the 3. Also, their 16 man roster features 11 Freshman or Sophomores. McDonald is barring a miracle almost assuredly out as the head coach by season's end. It seems an odd year when the neither the Jags, Cajuns or Toppers (or recently the Green) are considered favorites to win the league.

Troy Trojans 150-1, 5-8 (0-2)

Coach Maestri is going to zone you and chunk 3's. If they are making shots they can be tough to beat. But it hasn't brought a Sunbelt championship yet, and it won't this year either. Although I do like PG Will Weathers.

FAU Owls ??? 4-10, (0-1)

I have a lot of respect for Jarvis. They have a team with a good number of upperclassmen. They were in the post season last year, and this year is a mystery. They have played a tough schedule but a home loss to SIU-Edwardsville is baffling. They have perennial slump buster ULM at home on Thursday though.

ULM Infinity-1 1-14 (0-2)

Although they can't even play in post season due to APR issues that might be a blessing. Richard is actually a really good guy. I don't believe they are playing with a full compliment of scholarship players either. On one miraculous night they actually beat Nicholls in Thibodaux, only to have Nicholls return to Monroe later and beat them by double digits. They lost to a non-D1 at home. It is entirely, completely conceivable and possible that they finish the year at 1-28. They lose their leading scorer after this season. Although, Darshawn McClellan's brother Stephen is doing a nice job there.

Bottom Line anyone besides MT or Denver would be a surprise champion IMO.

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greenminer · January 2, 2012

How untimely is it for UALR to be facing UK next? They finally start getting things going then have to travel to a top-5 program. What a kill joy?

MeanMag · January 2, 2012

Fair assessment at this point, but I don't think UALR is really better than us. That game made me really angry.

Green Lantern · January 2, 2012

Fair assessment at this point, but I don't think UALR is really better than us. That game made me really angry.

Totally agree. It's maddening, but it's not the first time we fallen into the UALR trap head first. As CMJ pointed out early in the thread about the UALR game, they are always a tough game for us.

CMJ · January 2, 2012

I believe UALR has a 17-7 all time record against us.

MeanMag · January 3, 2012

They also have a 4 man who will be better than the much acclaimed Tony Mitchell at UNT this year and is likely the SBC player of the year.
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really?

Andrew · January 3, 2012

really?

J.T. Sulton?..... who the heck knows!?!?!?

NT03 · January 3, 2012

I believe it's LaRon Dendy. And at this point , yeah he's better than TM

If he was talking about Torin Walker , then he has no idea what he is talking about. Decent player , but not a POY canidate

Edited January 3, 2012 by NT03

MeanGreenTexan · January 3, 2012

I believe it's LaRon Dendy. And at this point , yeah he's better than TM
If he was talking about Torin Walker , then he has no idea what he is talking about. Decent player , but not a POY canidate

It's weird to see this, then look to the left at your avatar... :blink:

You must not be a real Tony Mitchell fan.

Mean Green Matt · January 3, 2012

He wouldn't be a Lafayette fan if he didn't take a jab at NT and Tony Mitchell. Rankings seem fair at this point though. It will be interesting to see how long the British kid is out for UALR. He is a heck of a player.

NT03 · January 3, 2012

You must not be a real Tony Mitchell fan.

Is this keeping it real a hip hop thing ?

Mean Green Matt · January 3, 2012

This is an honest question, as I've not seen them play. Is MTSU as good as advertised? They have a great record, but RPI seems pretty low for how good the record is.

CMJ · January 3, 2012

MTSU is pretty good.

NT03 · January 3, 2012

Mtsu is good , but they always seem to lay an egg in Hot Springs.... Might Have someting to do with players staying out too late....

MeanMag · January 3, 2012

I think MTSU is as good as advertised, but I kinda saw them as being a solid team top to bottom, not necessarily one guy who is just killing it. But, I've only watched them play a couple of times on TV.