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Pomeroy's Projections Up

CMJ

By CMJ
in Mean Green Basketball

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CMJ Grand Master

CMJ

Posted
Posted

For those of you who don't know...Ken Pomeroy is a bit of a stats geek who breaks down teams/schedules by varying metrics. His formulas tend to get better by around January, since right now he's using data that is out of date because he has a tough time working in newcomers into his stats.

Nonetheless, this is his preseason projection for us.

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=North%20Texas

untbowler Grand Master

untbowler

Posted
Posted

this season really depends on our big 3 being eligible (Patton, Mitchell, and Franklin) none of the 3 are officially eligible yet to my knowledge. If/when they become eligible then I think this is easily a 20+ win team again and should contend for the Sun Belt Title and if a good draw maybe a one win tournament team.

CMJ Grand Master

CMJ

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Well as he said...

Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.

Hence why the different win totals.

GrandGreen Grand Master

GrandGreen

Posted
Posted

Pomeroy is based on returning players and past records. There is no way with any accuracy for a computer to project effects of newcomers on the season. However, I do think NT would do better than this even without Franklin, Patton and Mitchell. Like all computer ratings, Pomeroy will get better as games are played and a season pattern is developed.

Mean Green Matt Veteran

Mean Green Matt

Posted
Posted

As I said....his site will be a lot more valid to reference in about a month.

Why are we just giving this Pomeroy guy a free pass? Sure, he may not have the best info at his fingertips yet, but he is a great statistician with skins on the wall. He should be able to get the accurate predictions now with what he has.

  • Upvote 1
MeanGreenTexan Grand Master

MeanGreenTexan

Posted
Posted

Why are we just giving this Pomeroy guy a free pass? Sure, he may not have the best info at his fingertips yet, but he is a great statistician with skins on the wall. He should be able to get the accurate predictions now with what he has.

last year's teams all graduated some pretty impressive seniors, so I think his cupboard was bare.

  • Upvote 2
emmitt01 Grand Master

emmitt01

Posted
Posted

Why are we just giving this Pomeroy guy a free pass? Sure, he may not have the best info at his fingertips yet, but he is a great statistician with skins on the wall. He should be able to get the accurate predictions now with what he has.

I'm upset with him. He brought in a computer that had belonged to another statistician and has experience projecting records to backup his home PC. Then, when his home PC went down, he just plugged in a brand new computer from Fry's and ran with it.

  • Upvote 2
MeanMag Rising Star

MeanMag

Posted
Posted

Why are we just giving this Pomeroy guy a free pass? Sure, he may not have the best info at his fingertips yet, but he is a great statistician with skins on the wall. He should be able to get the accurate predictions now with what he has.

I don't think you understand probabilistic outcomes when you only throw stats for 3 players into the model, and 1 of those hasn't played in 2 years.

Maybe he does have an accurate prediction? Why don't we wait and see? You're sentencing a man to death with no evidence yet. In fact, the only hard evidence at this point, would be on his side.

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