down to earth prediction for this year

Green Crazy · November 1, 2011

Being a big fan of the basketball team, but not having as good of grasp on our team or the belt as some on here, I wanted to know what everyones opinion was on our chances to win the belt this year. From what I've read our biggest challenges come from ULL and FAU. Can we beat them and get to the dance and what will our record be?

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Mean Green Matt · November 1, 2011

Being a big fan of the basketball team, but not having as good of grasp on our team or the belt as some on here, I wanted to know what everyones opinion was on our chances to win the belt this year. From what I've read our biggest challenges come from ULL and FAU. Can we beat them and get to the dance and what will our record be?

Disclaimer: In no way do I consider myself an expert on the basketball team.

These new players should have time to gel and get in the rhythm by the time Sun Belt play starts. I think the addition of Tony Mitchell will only help (and not disrupt), because realistically, they have been playing together all fall at the Rec Center, so it's not like he will be a stranger coming in. I could be completely wrong, but other than a few hiccups, the only team that really worries me in the SBC is WKU, because they have the same sort of recruiting class that will be making the same sort of progress throughout the year that we will.

kalebschumann · November 1, 2011

This could quickly become a "rebuilding and reloading year" if we don't grab some wins early.

FAU seems to be the Veteran favorite.

Ak St is the returning champs

WKU always seems to be there

These seem to be the teams that we will be contending with. I just hope our players grab JJ's system fast and we get rolling quickly!

Mean Green Matt · November 1, 2011

This could quickly become a "rebuilding and reloading year" if we don't grab some wins early.

FAU seems to be the Veteran favorite.
Ak St is the returning champs
WKU always seems to be there

These seem to be the teams that we will be contending with. I just hope our players grab JJ's system fast and we get rolling quickly!

I'm not sure that has a lot of bearing on a team this young. It is quite possible the season could have a rough start, but they are going to see conference play, and the addition of TM as a completely fresh start.

H-towngreen · November 1, 2011

My down to earth prediction is 100-0.

Censored by Laurie · November 1, 2011

Disclaimer: In no way do I consider myself an expert on the basketball team.

These new players should have time to gel and get in the rhythm by the time Sun Belt play starts. I think the addition of Tony Mitchell will only help (and not disrupt), because realistically, they have been playing together all fall at the Rec Center, so it's not like he will be a stranger coming in. I could be completely wrong, but other than a few hiccups, the only team that really worries me in the SBC is WKU, because they have the same sort of recruiting class that will be making the same sort of progress throughout the year that we will.

Difference between us and WKU is that if Patton and Franklin are both deemed eligible I'd expect us to only start 1 freshman (Chris Jones) and have just 1 other in the rotation (Jordan Williams)...not counting Mitchell as a freshman. WKU may well start 3 from day 1 (Gordon, Kaspar and Fant) and have 1 or 2 more in the rotation. I think they could have a lot more in the way of growing pains than UNT.

I'm not sure how anybody can overlook FAU. They went 13-3 in conference last season and return 7 of their top 8 scorers including the best backcourt in the conference. UNT may well have beat them in Hot Springs, but that's no reason what-so-ever to dismiss them. They're talented and well coached.

Even without Adams, ASU looks good.

MTSU is potentially loaded...so that means Kermit Davis will coach them to a .500 record.

MeanGreenTexan · November 1, 2011

Being a big fan of the basketball team, but not having as good of grasp on our team or the belt as some on here, I wanted to know what everyones opinion was on our chances to win the belt this year. From what I've read our biggest challenges come from ULL and FAU. Can we beat them and get to the dance and what will our record be?

my subjective answer: "We have a good shot to win the SBC"

my quantifiable answer: "We have a 20% chance to win the SBC. We have a 40% chance to win the west."

Compare that to the other teams in the belt...

The only team I would put ahead of UNT's chances to win the belt is FAU. S. AL will be good as well. AR St. will still be good without Adams and ULL will be good. Denver will obviously be good at home, and W. KY will be good as usual.

TheTastyGreek · November 1, 2011

I seem to be a pretty big Belt pessimist this year.

FAU is deservedly the pre-season favorite, but the loss of Royster is going to radically alter 1/2 of their game. They can't do what they've done in the past without potentially giving up a lot of easy points. They have to completely change their defensive alignment and intensity, and that's not going to be easy considering they (like we recently did) rely on undersized guards. If they can adapt, they'll continue to thrive. If they don't (and I don't think they can), they'll slip a bit (not that an 11 or 12 win conference season makes them a bad team).

Nobody better illustrates "more than the sum of the parts" better than Royster and his impact on FAU. His personal stats don't quantify it. There are a lot of bigger star players in this conference, but absolutely no one was more essential to his team's success and how they were able to approach the game defensively than Royster was.

FAU isn't going to suck or anything, but I don't think they'll be able to go beyond last year's overall record, and I think they may struggle to match it. That still makes them the best team in the league... But there's a weakness that didn't exist last season.

To put it in North Texas terms... The impact of losing Eric Tramiel is a shadow of the impact to FAU from losing Royster. Anyone who thinks our conference struggles last year were primarily due to Tramiel's absence... I think Royster's departure is a much, much bigger deal on the court for FAU.

And CBL probably thought he had the biggest Royster man crush in the world...

MeanGreenTexan · November 1, 2011

I seem to be a pretty big Belt pessimist this year.

FAU is deservedly the pre-season favorite, but the loss of Royster is going to radically alter 1/2 of their game. They can't do what they've done in the past without potentially giving up a lot of easy points. They have to completely change their defensive alignment and intensity, and that's not going to be easy considering they (like we recently did) rely on undersized guards. If they can adapt, they'll continue to thrive. If they don't (and I don't think they can), they'll slip a bit (not that an 11 or 12 win conference season makes them a bad team).

Nobody better illustrates "more than the sum of the parts" better than Royster and his impact on FAU. His personal stats don't quantify it. There are a lot of bigger star players in this conference, but absolutely no one was more essential to his team's success and how they were able to approach the game defensively than Royster was.

FAU isn't going to suck or anything, but I don't think they'll be able to go beyond last year's overall record, and I think they may struggle to match it. That still makes them the best team in the league... But there's a weakness that didn't exist last season.

To put it in North Texas terms... The impact of losing Eric Tramiel is a shadow of the impact to FAU from losing Royster. Anyone who thinks our conference struggles last year were primarily due to Tramiel's absence... I think Royster's departure is a much, much bigger deal on the court for FAU.

And CBL probably thought he had the biggest Royster man crush in the world...

I thought CBL loved Trey Finn? So you're saying CBL had a wandering eye?

TheTastyGreek · November 1, 2011

I thought CBL loved Trey Finn? So you're saying CBL had a wandering eye?

CBL has been hot for Royster since he was still playing in high school. I still remember hearing CBL talk him up during Royster's freshman year SBC tournament game in Mobile.

He was way ahead of the curve on Royster.

mgfan · November 1, 2011

This is a pretty good summary

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2011/11/01/college-basketball-preview-sun-belt-conference/

MeanGreenTexan · November 1, 2011

This is a pretty good summary

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2011/11/01/college-basketball-preview-sun-belt-conference/

Sorry Fox News, but without Bozeman, UALR is, at best, a middle of the pack team. S. Alabama = dead last?? What a horrible write up.

mgfan · November 1, 2011

http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1277

this might be a better write up.

did any one else see this? Maybe I have been focusing on FB too much. Sorry if already posted.

"Because of poor Academic Progress Report numbers, Louisiana-Monroe is ineligible for the postseason."

Edited November 1, 2011 by mgfan

dahbeed · November 1, 2011

http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1277

this might be a better write up.

did any one else see this? Maybe I have been focusing on FB too much. Sorry if already posted.

"Because of poor Academic Progress Report numbers, Louisiana-Monroe is ineligible for the postseason."

if they only had more blanquitos...

Censored by Laurie · November 1, 2011

if they only had more blanquitos...

Your board has been boring. You should swing by here more frequently.

Royster was so frustrating because he was from Arlington...I even tried to speak with his mom in Mobile and talk her in to getting him to transfer back home. His loss to FAU is certainly big...I think what you'll see less of from the Owls as a result is the Tucker-Taylor-Gantt back court...not sure you can get away with such a small back court without that defensive and rebounding presence. That will mean more minutes for the likes of Mavin and Bertone and Richardson and Grier, though...and these are good players.

dahbeed · November 1, 2011

Your board has been boring. You should swing by here more frequently.

no board with me as a member is 'boring'...

possibly stoopid...but not boring...

anyhooooo.....we're suffering 'battered wife' syndrome (honest to god not minimalizing that in real life)

we've been told mcdonald has found heyzeus (not literally...figuratively) and now he's gonna 'focus' on fundamentals and hard play and defense.

i axed if we ran across a 'basketball for dummies' book and this was some awakening style event. whodathunk to teach those things to a college basketball team. we need to pay the guy that came up with such a novel concept.

i guess his pattern before was get as many 6'4 swingman type players that can't dribble or shoot but can jump through the roof and win. we all know how well that worked last year.

we have lost a TON OF FANS due to the 'basketball reset' engineered by ransdell and company. some of our biggest posters from haven (who are also big givers irl) didn't renew in protest.

on the opposite end of the spectrum i just bought season tickets for the second year in a row after a 15 year hiatus. i got the cheapest ones and figure i can sit wherever i please.

gone are the prima donnas. that's not to say there is no talent in the incoming class but you don't win with 7 freshmans and 1 sophomore juco and chumps returning. but i'll be up close and personal to witness some hustle for the first time in 2 years.

call me a homo...call me an illiterate...just don't call me boring.

cwb · November 1, 2011

Dahbeed, do we need to send your basketball team a map with directions to Denton?

dahbeed · November 1, 2011

Dahbeed, do we need to send your basketball team a map with directions to Denton?

send one to wright waters.

it's located somewhere in the north part of texas isn't it?

MeanGreenTexan · November 1, 2011

...
To put it in North Texas terms... The impact of losing Eric Tramiel is a shadow of the impact to FAU from losing Royster. Anyone who thinks our conference struggles last year were primarily due to Tramiel's absence... I think Royster's departure is a much, much bigger deal on the court for FAU.
...

Oh, so you're saying that FAU is a heavy favorite to win the conference with some fantastic all-conference experience returning, only they will meddle in conference and only win half of their games, get a crap seed in the tournament, turn it on, beat some great teams on their way to the championship game, only to lose in the waning moments to a team that was picked to finish in the middle of the pack and has a bona-fide game-changer to hit a clutch shot?

I see where you're going here... and I like it! :thumbsu:

greenminer · November 2, 2011

Our JJ team meddled?

meangreenacct · November 3, 2011

This is a pretty good summary

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2011/11/01/college-basketball-preview-sun-belt-conference/

That just might be the craziest ranking I have seen yet. I guess they just looked at who won the tournament last year to determine who would be picked first? Despite all the newcomers I still have a hard time seeing WKY being the worst team in the conference behind Troy and ULM.

I think the rankings will probably look something like this -

East

1. FAU

2. MTSU

3. South Al

4. WKY

5. FIU

6. Troy

West

1. ULL

2. Denver (Assuming the win a few more road games)

3. NT (tie)

3. ASU (tie)

5. UALR

6. ULM

I think the west side is very fluid with any of the top four team having the ability to finish first. For us it will be a question of how quickly we can get everyone integrated. I do think we will start off a little slow, but will be playing our best basketball come tournament time.

dahbeed · November 3, 2011

That just might be the craziest ranking I have seen yet. I guess they just looked at who won the tournament last year to determine who would be picked first? Despite all the newcomers I still have a hard time seeing WKY being the worst team in the conference behind Troy and ULM.

I think the rankings will probably look something like this -

East
1. FAU
2. MTSU
3. South Al
4. WKY
5. FIU
6. Troy

West
1. ULL
2. Denver (Assuming the win a few more road games)
3. NT (tie)
3. ASU (tie)
5. UALR
6. ULM

I think the west side is very fluid with any of the top four team having the ability to finish first. For us it will be a question of how quickly we can get everyone integrated. I do think we will start off a little slow, but will be playing our best basketball come tournament time.

believe the fox rankings for western. though i would flip flop us and south al. i have us dead last in the conference. dead last...even behind 'i can't coach a lick thomas' and 'big lots u' (ulm)

we have the second worst coach in the conference. thomas owns that in perpetuity. our returning scoring and rebounding is a JOKE.

i can see us winning a few games against ulm and possibly little rock. everyone thought i was sandbagging last year when i picked against us but i pretty much showed everyone i was right on that. mcdonald is a terrible coach and the administration chose to keep him because of fear they would lose this class.

all of that said...i bought season tickets just to see the new guys.

bono · November 3, 2011

I don't know much about the rest of the teams in the Sun Belt honestly, but i will still take a shot. I am very familiar with Tony Mithchell's game, and I have also seen Chris Jones and Jordan Williams a decent bit. I know a lot about the rest but have not seen them much.

The first few games will be very interesting, as UNT has some quality opponents but will be without Tony. I expect for Tony to play vs LSU, and that will be the best test for the full team.

I would not necessarily "expect" but at least hope to go to the NCAA tourney. Jones has a strong track record and UNT will have the best player in the league in the tourney, surrounded by other quality talent.

Once a team is in the NCAA tourney anything is possible. I don't know that anyone can expect anything, just get in and hope to make a run.

In summary - I think 20 wins and NCAA might be optimistic to some with so many new players, but is a reasonable goal. It is not easy to win any tourney, but UNT has a good a chance as anyone in the Sun Belt imo.

Edited November 3, 2011 by bono