First Year Head Coach Wins Again At Ark St

Aquila_Viridis · October 20, 2011

Just a guess?

I agree with pretty much everything that Rick says, so I don't want to be counted as a detractor, but that was a good one.

FirefightnRick · October 20, 2011

Skimming through some old post over at The Den.

This is from our coaching search.
Hudspeth, as I said in another thread, isn't a bad choice, if you think the program needs a total overhaul.

My point being that ASU wasn't far from being pretty good and we needed to hire within. If Freeze's offense hadn't worked so well last year I would have been pushing very hard to get him at ASU.

Sorry Mark, but I read through your other post as well and I'm not sold on all of your explanation that our two programs were that far apart in player talent. We beat a Big 10 team after all this year with Dodge's recruits, and Indiana nearly pulled off a win over Penn State the week after. Not sure we expected a complete turn around this year but North Texas did have two years to recruit players with the state's newest stadium as a recruiting tool.

We didn't win very much last year but were not all that far from being GOOD either, and were actually COMPETITIVE with Dodges' recruits, who like your's and ULL's, were all recruited at the SUN BELT LEVEL.

With Dodge

We were a stupid celebration penalty and busted play from going in at half time tied with Clemson. Notice who's ranked 7th right now?

A 1 point loss to Rice.

A 4 point loss to FAU

A 1 point loss to ULL

And a 5 point loss to ASU

After Dodge

We won 2 of our last 5 games, including a win at bowl bound MTSU.

A 6 point loss to Troy.

And an 8 point loss to K State in which we had a decent lead in at one point and thought we were actually going to win it. Notice who's currently ranked 11th nationally?

I'm not saying we were world beaters or anything. But that's being competitive with like recruits. So considering we had one of our most experienced secondary's returning with a nationally ranked RB for a much more experienced and funded coaching staff to build around many here thought we would at least be competitive, and I think we have been in some key areas?

But back to the original reason for the thread. After it has been debated for years, and very recently here that it cannot be done, you guys and ULL and Brady Hoke at Michigan and Pete Lembo at Ball State(a team we beat only two years ago) are all proving this year that a new coach can, in the right situation, win with the previous guy's players. It happens every year somewhere. We were told here all Summer long, "Why Not North Texas", and many bought into it a bit.

No one here expected this to be that RIGHT SITUATION for North Texas in 2011 to the level of what Ark State is experiencing. Most expected it to be a rebuilding year, and I think everyone is pleased so far with the improvements we have seen in some areas with the team and all love Coach Mac's spirit. I certainly didn't expect him to do what y'all have done. But at the same time I won't fault anyone here for thinking otherwise before the season started and being disappointed when we are down by 25 to FIU in the first quarter.

Rick

Edited October 20, 2011 by FirefightnRick

MeanGreenHoops · October 20, 2011

We didn't win very much last year but were not all that far from being GOOD either, and were actually COMPETITIVE with Dodges' recruits, who like your's and ULL's, were all recruited at the SUN BELT LEVEL.

With Dodge

We were a stupid celebration penalty and busted play from going in at half time tied with Clemson. Notice who's ranked 7th right now?

A 1 point loss to Rice.

A 4 point loss to FAU

A 1 point loss to ULL

And a 5 point loss to ASU

After Dodge

We won 2 of our last 5 games, including a win at bowl bound MTSU.

A 6 point loss to Troy.

And an 8 point loss to K State in which we had a decent lead in at one point and thought we were actually going to win it. Notice who's currently ranked 11th nationally?

I'm not saying we were world beaters or anything. But that's being competitive with like recruits. So considering we had one of our most experienced secondary's returning with a nationally ranked RB for a much more experienced and funded coaching staff to build around many here thought we would at least be competitive, and I think we have been in some key areas?

Rick

You can't play that game since it's not the same team, which was ArkSt.'s point But since your playing anyway, i'd argue that if we had this coaching staff with last years team, We would have won at least two of the close games and had a chance at a bowl game last year because we would have been bowl eligible.

Problem with you argument is that this isn't last years team. We don't have a QB, any WR's making plays, or an offensive line doing much, so we can't score points. The defense has already made more plays than all of last year, but they aren't good enough yet to overcome a near anemic offense. It's not for lack of trying, we're just not there yet. Could be because we're young on offense, or because no depth, or barbecue not the right players yet, or a combo of all (my opinion) but the facts are we don't really score. If we had hired Nick Saban, I don't think we'd have done any better than we have so far. It sucks because it is frustrating to think we still have a long way to go, but the good news is you can actually see improvement something you never ever saw with Dodge's teams.

Edited October 20, 2011 by MeanGreenHoops

FirefightnRick · October 20, 2011

You can't play that game since it's not the same team, which was ArkSt.'s point But since your playing anyway, i'd argue that if we had this coaching staff with last years team, We would have won at least two of the close games and had a chance at a bowl game last year because we would have been bowl eligible.

Problem with you argument is that this isn't last years team. We don't have a QB, any WR's making plays, or an offensive line doing much, so we can't score points. The defense has already made more plays than all of last year, but they aren't good enough yet to overcome a near anemic offense. It's not for lack of trying, we're just not there yet. Could be because we're young on offense, or because no depth, or barbecue not the right players yet, or a combo of all (my opinion) but the facts are we don't really score. If we had hired Nick Saban, I don't think we'd have done any better than we have so far. It sucks because it is frustrating to think we still have a long way to go, but the good news is you can actually see improvement something you never ever saw with Dodge's teams.

I didnt think ArkStFan was comparing team vs team, he gave examples of players and recruiting classes.

And THIS TEAM has improved in some areas. Last year we were down to our 4th string QB by week 4. This year we played the number two team in the nation without giving up a sack, with Dodges' recruits and Dodges' offensive coordinator.

Rick

Edited October 20, 2011 by FirefightnRick

buff64 · October 20, 2011

In your honor:

Thanks for the movie Q, thats exactly what we need , some linemen like that Buff.

MeanGreenTexan · October 20, 2011

The biggest problem with comparing AKSt. to UNT is the fact that Aplin is a much better QB than Thompson (at least right now).

If Aplin were running this offense, I believe we would be at least 4-2.

Now, ULL? There's no excuse for them... but I believe something that is contributing to their attitude is their creampuff early schedule, and getting wins on the board early.

Army of Dad · October 20, 2011

Thank you. Even if I was begging for tickets (see previous post...I wasn't), is that not a good thing? Someone begging to go to a UNT game.....what a crazy idea. But let's belittle him for trying to have an opinion. That'll get em to the stadium.

As far as I can tell this is a long held tradition around here. Some of those supporting you have engaged in this behavior before and will do so again, just as sure as the sun will rise in the east.

Arkstfan · October 20, 2011

Sorry Mark, but I read through your other post as well and I'm not sold on all of your explanation that our two programs were that far apart in player talent. We beat a Big 10 team after all this year with Dodge's recruits, and Indiana nearly pulled off a win over Penn State the week after. Not sure we expected a complete turn around this year but North Texas did have two years to recruit players with the state's newest stadium as a recruiting tool.

We didn't win very much last year but were not all that far from being GOOD either, and were actually COMPETITIVE with Dodges' recruits, who like your's and ULL's, were all recruited at the SUN BELT LEVEL.

With Dodge

We were a stupid celebration penalty and busted play from going in at half time tied with Clemson. Notice who's ranked 7th right now?

A 1 point loss to Rice.

A 4 point loss to FAU

A 1 point loss to ULL

And a 5 point loss to ASU

After Dodge

We won 2 of our last 5 games, including a win at bowl bound MTSU.

A 6 point loss to Troy.

And an 8 point loss to K State in which we had a decent lead in at one point and thought we were actually going to win it. Notice who's currently ranked 11th nationally?

I'm not saying we were world beaters or anything. But that's being competitive with like recruits. So considering we had one of our most experienced secondary's returning with a nationally ranked RB for a much more experienced and funded coaching staff to build around many here thought we would at least be competitive, and I think we have been in some key areas?

But back to the original reason for the thread. After it has been debated for years, and very recently here that it cannot be done, you guys and ULL and Brady Hoke at Michigan and Pete Lembo at Ball State(a team we beat only two years ago) are all proving this year that a new coach can, in the right situation, win with the previous guy's players. It happens every year somewhere. We were told here all Summer long, "Why Not North Texas", and many bought into it a bit.

No one here expected this to be that RIGHT SITUATION for North Texas in 2011 to the level of what Ark State is experiencing. Most expected it to be a rebuilding year, and I think everyone is pleased so far with the improvements we have seen in some areas with the team and all love Coach Mac's spirit. I certainly didn't expect him to do what y'all have done. But at the same time I won't fault anyone here for thinking otherwise before the season started and being disappointed when we are down by 25 to FIU in the first quarter.

Rick

Indiana is terrible. They are 1-6 after firing their coach who went 5-7 last year. They weren't good last year. On the way to 5-7 they beat a 4-8 ArkSt team by 2 and and a 2-10 WKU by 17.

My point was UNT had less to sell to recruits during past recruiting classes other than the most recent, because UNT had a harder sell to convice recruits that the staff in place was capable of winning.

You played Clemson even for a half in the opener last year. Clemson finished 6-7 last year, sure they are ranked this year, but they didn't sniff the polls last year and won by 25. ASU played its open against eventual national champion Auburn as close as Arkansas, Ole Miss and South Carolina did and it was a two score game halfway through the third quarter. Auburn won by 26. We lost our openers by an average of 25.5 points but I think a 26 point loss to an eventual 14-0 team carries more style points than a 25 point loss to an eventual 6-7 team.

Playing the ifs and buts game.

Last year Arkansas State beat ULM UNT, FAU, and MTSU (televised rout).

For the BUT games:

@Indiana determined on missed FG on next to last possession.

@Louisiana Aplin picked off at ULL 17 on drive that could have tied or given ASU the win.

@Troy goes 67 yards in 28 seconds to take the lead and the win with 17 seconds left.

Western KY the Red Wolves leading by 7 with 45 seconds left face 4th down at the WKU 49. Bad snap to the punter gives WKU the ball at the ASU 22. They tie, ASU scores on first play of OT, WKU answers and runs trick play for 2 and the win. Adding intrigue, players had discussed the week before the game that a loss ends Roberts time at ASU.

@FIU Hilton scores in final two minutes and FIU converts two-point conversion for 7 point win

Arkansas State was that close to going 9-3 last year.

UNT had a unique situation last year. You got to replace a coach the players apparently had lost confidence in, they got a semi-fresh start and lost at home by 8 to a team ASU lost to on the road by 7 without a semi-fresh start. You beat MTSU by 6 in Smurfland we beat them the week before by 26 in Jonesboro. Your semi-fresh start got you a 12 point loss in Monroe, ASU beat them by 14 in Jonesboro with the same-old-same-old.

ASU returned its record-breaking QB and three receivers who had five TD receptions and added Josh Jarboe at receiver. ASU returned 10 starters on defense.

ASU placed 4 on the Phil Steele pre-season Sun Belt first team, UNT placed 2 if you count the kicker. ASU 5 on the second team, UNT 4 if you count second team kick returner. ASU 5 on his 3rd team, UNT 3.

The Sun Belt named five ASU players all-conference compared to two for UNT.

Phil Steele and the league coaches didn't agree with the assertion that UNT handed McCarney enough talent to be immediately competitive.

One last point. Sure as you say ASU and ULL's players "were all recruited at the SUN BELT LEVEL."

But ASU recruited two classes to that level coming off 6-6 seasons. ULL recruited three classes to that level coming off 6-6 seasons. UNT recruited 5 classes coming off nothing better than three wins. Surely you think that makes a difference in generating recruit interest.

MeanGreenWithEnvy · October 20, 2011

Didn't someone say FIU would lose at least 2 times in conference while everyone else was predicting an undefeated season?

Oh ya, that was me.

The opening game loss to them looks worse and worse as the season progresses

I was one of the folks thinking FIU could go undefeated after watching them in person in Miami. There's more parity in the Belt than I believed.

FirefightnRick · October 21, 2011

Indiana is terrible. They are 1-6 after firing their coach who went 5-7 last year. They weren't good last year. On the way to 5-7 they beat a 4-8 ArkSt team by 2 and and a 2-10 WKU by 17.

My point was UNT had less to sell to recruits during past recruiting classes other than the most recent, because UNT had a harder sell to convice recruits that the staff in place was capable of winning.

You played Clemson even for a half in the opener last year. Clemson finished 6-7 last year, sure they are ranked this year, but they didn't sniff the polls last year and won by 25. ASU played its open against eventual national champion Auburn as close as Arkansas, Ole Miss and South Carolina did and it was a two score game halfway through the third quarter. Auburn won by 26. We lost our openers by an average of 25.5 points but I think a 26 point loss to an eventual 14-0 team carries more style points than a 25 point loss to an eventual 6-7 team.

Playing the ifs and buts game.
Last year Arkansas State beat ULM UNT, FAU, and MTSU (televised rout).
For the BUT games:
@Indiana determined on missed FG on next to last possession.
@Louisiana Aplin picked off at ULL 17 on drive that could have tied or given ASU the win.
@Troy goes 67 yards in 28 seconds to take the lead and the win with 17 seconds left.
Western KY the Red Wolves leading by 7 with 45 seconds left face 4th down at the WKU 49. Bad snap to the punter gives WKU the ball at the ASU 22. They tie, ASU scores on first play of OT, WKU answers and runs trick play for 2 and the win. Adding intrigue, players had discussed the week before the game that a loss ends Roberts time at ASU.
@FIU Hilton scores in final two minutes and FIU converts two-point conversion for 7 point win

Arkansas State was that close to going 9-3 last year.

UNT had a unique situation last year. You got to replace a coach the players apparently had lost confidence in, they got a semi-fresh start and lost at home by 8 to a team ASU lost to on the road by 7 without a semi-fresh start. You beat MTSU by 6 in Smurfland we beat them the week before by 26 in Jonesboro. Your semi-fresh start got you a 12 point loss in Monroe, ASU beat them by 14 in Jonesboro with the same-old-same-old.

ASU returned its record-breaking QB and three receivers who had five TD receptions and added Josh Jarboe at receiver. ASU returned 10 starters on defense.

ASU placed 4 on the Phil Steele pre-season Sun Belt first team, UNT placed 2 if you count the kicker. ASU 5 on the second team, UNT 4 if you count second team kick returner. ASU 5 on his 3rd team, UNT 3.

The Sun Belt named five ASU players all-conference compared to two for UNT.

Phil Steele and the league coaches didn't agree with the assertion that UNT handed McCarney enough talent to be immediately competitive.

One last point. Sure as you say ASU and ULL's players "were all recruited at the SUN BELT LEVEL."

But ASU recruited two classes to that level coming off 6-6 seasons. ULL recruited three classes to that level coming off 6-6 seasons. UNT recruited 5 classes coming off nothing better than three wins. Surely you think that makes a difference in generating recruit interest.

1. So Indiana is now terrible, yet they beat a team last year as you said that was full of recruits who were brought to Jonesboro based on a 6-6 record and could have gone 9-3 the same year? Seems if they were recruited at the Big 10 level, and beat your group of 6-6 cultivated phenoms last year then that should stand for something this year?

2. I seem to remember Ricky Bustle being on the coaches hot seat list for several years, much longer than Dodge? Bustle in my opinion had a much tougher sell than Dodge ever had till maybe his very last class?

3.How does "Semi-fresh start" qualify the players any differently in how they were recruited? It doesn't because it discounts the aspect of good coaching. Seems to me, if the players under Dodge were sorry recruits before, then it seems they were after? Yet Canales took over the same recruits who were there under the same recruiting circumstances as before and simply got more out of them, and did so with a 4th string quarterback that had to come in and play from the 4th week on with a cast on his non throwing hand and elbow damage in his throwing arm.

I understand your point your making. I'm just not completely buying into the fact that Dodge's recruits and talent were that far off from ASU. They certainly didn't play like it in many games last year, and under Dodge we had our highest rated class ever, and our highest rated recruit ever.

Rick

untcampbell · October 21, 2011

our highest rated recruit ever = 4th string quarterback

(ironic to those that don't know the backstory)

GMG

Arkstfan · October 21, 2011

Rick, I'd agree that its simply a matter of ASU and ULL having hired a better coach this year than UNT did and not attribute it to recruiting, because that makes my school look better.

Back in 2003 Harry was complaining to me that Dickey had let recruiting fall apart and until this class I heard near annual complaints from him about players ASU was getting in the Metroplex that UNT wasn't. I don't track recruiting so I take his word for it.

By objective measures, Arkansas State has placed more kids on the all-conference teams than UNT.

ASU has had a player drafted by the NFL each of the past five drafts, UNT hasn't had a player drafted since 2004. ULL has had two taken since the last UNT player.

Maybe ASU and ULL are doing well because we all have equal talent and those two guys are doing a better coaching job. Maybe way back when UNT did some bad recruiting and has a hard time recovering because UNT hasn't won more than three games any of the past six seasons.

If people think UNT has the talent to contend for the Sun Belt title this year, that's their opinion and they are free to have it. Just not sure what that opinion is based on other than the ever deadly score comparison game.

Edited October 21, 2011 by Arkstfan

FirefightnRick · October 22, 2011

If people think UNT has the talent to contend for the Sun Belt title this year, that's their opinion....

Again, I don't think anyone here in their right mind expected NT to contend for the Sun Belt title. I certainly did not, and still don't. But as soon as we were down 24-0 in the first quarter, and from that point forward, it was argued as an excuse that a first year coach just cannot win or even be expected to be semi competitive. Then ASU, ULL, Ball State and Michigan come along giving me the chance to point out that it is possible.

Rick

Edited October 22, 2011 by FirefightnRick

Greendylan · October 22, 2011

I think most people would agree that ASU had a greater shot than UNT at immediate success coming into the 2011 season. For what it's worth though, per Rivals, the recruiting rankings don't show a wild disparity of talent entering each program:

Sun Belt Rivals Rankings

2008

UNT #3 ASU #7

2009

UNT #5 ASU #4

2010

UNT #5 ASU #6

2011

UNT #6 ASU #4

And, in case it's of interest to anyone, current (2012) rankings show UNT #2 and ASU #3. So, over the course of the last four recruiting classes, UNT's incoming players have actually had a slightly higher ranking than ASU. Now, our ability to retain and develop those players has clearly been lacking, and ASU seems to have done pretty well in that area. It will be interesting to see how the 2012 class materializes and if the current coaching staff will be able to get the most from that talent.