Git Sum Presidentin' (Republican primaries)

[Green P1]

[UNT90]

Thank God Perry showed what a moron he is to the entire nation. This is what happens when someone tries to pretend they are a conservative. They hit issues that are far, far, far down on a true conservatist's list of priorities, thinking they are showing what a true conservative they are, when in reality they are just showing their behind.

Or in Pery's case, his true lack of understanding for what a conservative is.

Go back to the Democrat party, Rick. Deep in your heart, that is what you are, anyways.

[Coffee and TV]

You mean 57 states?

I don't like down-voting but I will say this: if I was going to its not because I can't laugh at the guy I voted for president. I would downvote you because THAT JOKE IS 3 YEARS OLD.

[Coffee and TV]

So if Romney wins Iowa its pretty much over with. Other candidates will split some more conservative states, but nobody will have the momentum nor the organization to keep up.

[UNT90]

So if Romney wins Iowa its pretty much over with. Other candidates will split some more conservative states, but nobody will have the momentum nor the organization to keep up.

Hardly.

Johnny Mac came in fourth place in 2008. Mike Huckaby won the caucus (too bad he didn't win the nomination). McCain Also was way down the list in 2000, with 5% of the vote, only to turn around and win New Hampshire to turn the republican race on it's head. Tom Harkin (who??) won in 1992, with Bill Clinton getting a whopping 3% of the vote.

The media makes much more of Iowa than the voters. A really long, long way to go.

I know this is your dream candidate (liberal light) for the republicans, but this is going to be a long, drawn out process this year.

I have never seen a candidate throw away such a huge advantage as Perry did this year. The only thing that kept him from being the next President was his own stupidity (Thank God).

[Coffee and TV]

Hardly.

Johnny Mac came in fourth place in 2008. Mike Huckaby won the caucus (too bad he didn't win the nomination). McCain Also was way down the list in 2000, with 5% of the vote, only to turn around and win New Hampshire to turn the republican race on it's head. Tom Harkin (who??) won in 1992, with Bill Clinton getting a whopping 3% of the vote.

You're more or less proving my point with this statement. If Iowa, which is generally a more conservative evangelical state (at least the Republican base) will vote for Romney, then no other candidate stands a chance in the rest of the states. Romney at first put little hope in Iowa and concentrated his resources more in New Hampshire. So long as he didn't do embarrassingly bad there, he could rebound nicely with New Hampshire. Now that he's leading in a lot of the polls, he's pushing to win or at least a strong 2nd. If Romney wins Iowa it will only solidify his position as the front-runner, especially after he perpetuates a smack down of everyone in New Hampshire a week later.

I know this is your dream candidate (liberal light) for the republicans, but this is going to be a long, drawn out process this year.

Listen dude, I don't know how else to spell it out, but I'll say it again: Mitt Romney is the biggest threat to an Obama re-election. There is a big difference between what I think will happen versus what I want to happen.

Edited January 1, 2012 by Coffee and TV

[FirefightnRick]

Santorum anyone? He was way off the radar a month ago and now showing wel in Iowa.

Rick

[Quoner]

Santorum anyone?

I'd be careful with that question.

[UNT90]

You're more or less proving my point with this statement. If Iowa, which is generally a more conservative evangelical state (at least the Republican base) will vote for Romney, then no other candidate stands a chance in the rest of the states. Romney at first put little hope in Iowa and concentrated his resources more in New Hampshire. So long as he didn't do embarrassingly bad there, he could rebound nicely with New Hampshire. Now that he's leading in a lot of the polls, he's pushing to win or at least a strong 2nd. If Romney wins Iowa it will only solidify his position as the front-runner, especially after he perpetuates a smack down of everyone in New Hampshire a week later.

Listen dude, I don't know how else to spell it out, but I'll say it again: Mitt Romney is the biggest threat to an Obama re-election. There is a big difference between what I think will happen versus what I want to happen.

What you continue to fail to recognize is that a majority of truely CONSERVATIVE republicans are looking for their candidate. They have yet to settle on one. When they do, I believe you will see that candidate win the nomination. Perry is out, Bachman is out, Cain is out (too bad), I think they are looking for any viable candidate that isn't named Romney. Will they find that candidate? Maybe not. Maybe they will have to settle for liberal light. That would be a disaster for the republican party and the nation as a whole. Pres. Obama would win re-election by a large margin. Either way, this process will not be quickly done.

You don't win elections by offering a candidate that has very little contrast to the opponent.

[Coffee and TV]

What you continue to fail to recognize is that a majority of truely CONSERVATIVE republicans are looking for their candidate. They have yet to settle on one. When they do IT WILL BE TOO LATE

Fixed your post for you.

I think they are looking for any viable candidate that isn't named Romney.

And they've been accepting of whatever johnny-come-lately conservative there is, and then have seen that they all carry major, major flaws.

You don't win elections by offering a candidate that has very little contrast to the opponent.

You don't win elections by nominating someone who is too far right of the mainstream to flip 2008 blue states. Tell me, if Republicans nominate Newt or Santorum, what states suddenly go red tomorrow that wouldn't with Romney or Huntsman? None of them.

After tomorrow night Bachman, Newt, and maybe Perry don't hang around much longer. If Romney wins Iowa the only chance conservatives have is by coalescing around Santorum (doubtful), and after he wins New Hampshire by double digits (maybe 20 points) it'll be too late. They might pick up South Carolina, but Romney will already have momentum going into bigger states like Michigan and Florida. Santorum or any other conservative better hope for a HUGE money dump if they want a chance in the later primaries. Hell, nobody but Romney and Paul even made the ballot in Virginia.

[UNT90]

Fixed your post for you.

And they've been accepting of whatever johnny-come-lately conservative there is, and then have seen that they all carry major, major flaws.

You don't win elections by nominating someone who is too far right of the mainstream to flip 2008 blue states. Tell me, if Republicans nominate Newt or Santorum, what states suddenly go red tomorrow that wouldn't with Romney or Huntsman? None of them.

After tomorrow night Bachman, Newt, and maybe Perry don't hang around much longer. If Romney wins Iowa the only chance conservatives have is by coalescing around Santorum (doubtful), and after he wins New Hampshire by double digits (maybe 20 points) it'll be too late. They might pick up South Carolina, but Romney will already have momentum going into bigger states like Michigan and Florida. Santorum or any other conservative better hope for a HUGE money dump if they want a chance in the later primaries. Hell, nobody but Romney and Paul even made the ballot in Virginia.

Blue states that will flip back red if given a clear contrast to Pres. Obama are Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada. Possible other states that could go red (depending on the economy) are MI, WI, CO, NM, PA, and MN. Obviouly, the big ones in there are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, North Carolina, and PA.

Give conservatives a candidate they aren't excited about, and watch voter turnout among republicans go in the tank. If the economy is bad enough, Romney may pull out a narrow victory. If you give voters a clear alternative, and the economy is bad, Pres. Obama will lose in a landslide. My fear is that the republicans will/have failed to present a viable conservative candidate and will hand this election to Pres. Obama because of their own ineptness.

I don't think Santorum, who couldn't get re-elected to his senate seat, is the answer, but he is better than Washington Newt. Who knows, maybe conservatives settle on him as their last resort. If so, he will get a huge boost in not only Iowa, but also New Hampshire. It's pretty clear that there is a 20-30% swing of conservative voters out there that keep trying on candidates, only to be severely disappointed every time. If they can find a candidate and stick with that candidate, Romney doesn't stand a chance for the nomination.

Romney's terrible health care legislation as governor will severly hurt him with conservatives, cost the republican party Florida (which they have to have to win the election), and drive down the republican party's base turnout for the election. Absent a double dip recession starting sometime in 2012, Romney will not win the White House if he gets the nomination.

Put it in 3 inch headlines.

EDIT: Also, since you bring up Huntsman (who appears to be yet another Rhino trying to dress in conservative clothing), surely you know that he has foregone participation in the Iowa Caucus and concentrated his early campaigning in New Hampshire, right? I guess he didn't get the memo the nomination process is over if Romney wins Iowa.

,

Edited January 3, 2012 by UNT90

[SCREAMING EAGLE-66]

Hardly.

Johnny Mac came in fourth place in 2008. Mike Huckaby won the caucus (too bad he didn't win the nomination). McCain Also was way down the list in 2000, with 5% of the vote, only to turn around and win New Hampshire to turn the republican race on it's head. Tom Harkin (who??) won in 1992, with Bill Clinton getting a whopping 3% of the vote.

The media makes much more of Iowa than the voters. A really long, long way to go.

I know this is your dream candidate (liberal light) for the republicans, but this is going to be a long, drawn out process this year.

I have never seen a candidate throw away such a huge advantage as Perry did this year. The only thing that kept him from being the next President was his own stupidity (Thank God).

---We now know why Perry would not participate in a debate for Governor.

--He has met the enemy and it was him. (apologies to Pogo)

Never has a political party had such a bad collection of candidates. The decent possibilities can't get the attention of the extreme right who want to cut more taxes and put us into an even worse national debt (the last cut did that but was supposed to help the economy...how did that work out? ) . I still am not completely convinced that the final nominee has appeared..... surely not. ---no I don't like taxes... I also don't like paying my electric bill but have to in order to have services.

Edited January 3, 2012 by SCREAMING EAGLE-66

[Coffee and TV]

Blue states that will flip back red if given a clear contrast to Pres. Obama are

Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio,

Possibly, but the chances are higher that a more moderate candidate would have a better chance.

Florida,

Doubtful.

Indiana,

It was already unlikely Indiana would be blue again.

Iowa, Nevada.

Very doubtful.

MI, WI, CO, NM, PA, and MN

Not a chance.

My fear is that the republicans will/have failed to present a viable conservative candidate and will hand this election to Pres. Obama because of their own ineptness.

My point exactly. You can dream up a great conservative that could woo enough independents the way GWB did, but that person doesn't exist in the current context.

I don't think Santorum, who couldn't get re-elected to his senate seat, is the answer, but he is better than Washington Newt. Who knows, maybe conservatives settle on him as their last resort. If so, he will get a huge boost in not only Iowa,

Santorum would give Obama 35 states.

but also New Hampshire.

Even a boost wouldn't be enough. If he wins or does well in Iowa he'll need a miracle in New Hampshire. He might get 10% if he's lucky.

It's pretty clear that there is a 20-30% swing of conservative voters out there that keep trying on candidates, only to be severely disappointed every time. If they can find a candidate and stick with that candidate, Romney doesn't stand a chance for the nomination.

Too late. That candidate doesn't exist. Might as well be like liberals in 2004 and get behind Romney the way they did Kerry. He almost pulled it off.

EDIT: Also, since you bring up Huntsman (who appears to be yet another Rhino trying to dress in conservative clothing), surely you know that he has foregone participation in the Iowa Caucus and concentrated his early campaigning in New Hampshire, right? I guess he didn't get the memo the nomination process is over if Romney wins Iowa.

Huntsman is running for 2016.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Coffee and TV

[UNTFan23]

Why even have elections when according to some no Republican has a chance?

In my opinion, what I think many card carrying Republicans should worry about is someone sucking away votes from the Republican presidential candidate allowing Obama to win a second term. Both Ron Paul (who has said at this time has not ruled out running as an independent) or Donald Trump (who has said would run as an independent if the GOP puts out a crappy candidate) have left the door open to run as independents for the presidential election.

Edited January 3, 2012 by UNTFan23

[UNT90]

Why even have elections when according to some no Republican has a chance?

In my opinion, what I think many card carrying Republicans should worry about is someone sucking away votes from the Republican presidential candidate allowing Obama to win a second term. Both Ron Paul (who has said at this time has not ruled out running as an independent) or Donald Trump (who has said would run as an independent if the GOP puts out a crappy candidate) have left the door open to run as independents for the presidential election.

Paul would draw the same tiny vote that he has drawn before running as a libertarian. Trump would draw less, and drop out once he got the publicity he was seeking (so he wouldn't be embarrassed by the actual vote).

[Coffee and TV]

Predictions:

Romney - 25%

Santorum - 23%

Paul - 21%

Gingrich - 14%

Perry - 9%

Bachmann - 5%

Huntsman - 2%

Others - 1%

Bachmann might drop out, although she doesn't need much money to continue just being a loudmouth buffoon. Huntsman will rebound nicely in New Hampshire. Santorum will claim victory as the highest conservative but won't win any other states. Newt might linger along and win South Carolina but will ultimately drop out before Super Tuesday in March. Perry will do the same but not win any states.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Coffee and TV

[FirefightnRick]

Romney wins by 8 votes.

Even though the Iowa Caucas has predicted only 50 percent of Republican primary winners over the years, tonight shows you why you don't count anyone out.

I know Santorum doesn't have much money to compete but seeing his campaign launch to the front tonight out of nowhere was fun to watch.

Rick

Edited January 4, 2012 by FirefightnRick

[Coffee and TV]

Bow. Bow to your predictions master.

[Harry]

I was impressed with Santorum's speech last night.

[UNT90]

I was impressed with Santorum's speech last night.

Liked everything but the "game on" comment. Why do politicians think awkward use of pop culture terminology is imperative in A campaign, I'll never know.

Santorum may be where conservatives land for good. He has some concerns for conservatives (earmarks being among the most concerning), but, unless there is a surprise looming (a la Herman Cain), I don't think it's anything that conservatives can't live with (and transfere frankly, don't have much of a choice but to live with). Santorum has also stated these votes were mistakes.

All in all, much easier to live with than liberal light Romney. Romney will win New Hampshire, but I think Santorum will make it closer than expected. The nomination comes down to South Carolina. If Romney wins there, it may be game over. I would be shocked if this happens. I would expect a Santorum victory if he unites the conservative vote. Then the nomination is anyone's to win.

[UNT90]

Bow. Bow to your predictions master.

Wow. You managed that prediction the night of the vote after final polling was published? Shocking.

For your next feat, why don't you predict New Hampshire... Today

[Coffee and TV]

For your next feat, why don't you predict New Hampshire... Today

Before Perry and Bachmann officially drop out? Ok. I'll try. H8ter.

Romney - 46%

Paul - 22%

Huntsman - 13%

Santorum - 10%

Gingrich - 8%

Other randoms - 1%

[DeepGreen]

Give me your reasons for wanting to keep Obama in office for another term as President.

[Coffee and TV]

Give me your reasons for wanting to keep Obama in office for another term as President.

Give me a million dollars.

[DeepGreen]

Give me a million dollars.

Thanks for you thoughtful input.