UNT Basketball-NCAA Tourney?

mgfan · July 27, 2011

I know its really early, and football season is around the corner (which I am excited about), but my friend and I were arguing about the basketball team. I claim we have an excellent shot at making the tourney this year, he claims there is little chance. I'm wonder what y'all (since I got a -1 for putting "you all" last time) think?

TheTastyGreek · July 27, 2011

I know its really early, and football season is around the corner (which I am excited about), but my friend and I were arguing about the basketball team. I claim we have an excellent shot at making the tourney this year, he claims there is little chance. I'm wonder what y'all (since I got a -1 for putting "you all" last time) think?

Short answer: Too early to tell. There are only 4 returning scholarship players... One of them missed all of last season on a medical redshirt, and the other three all had medical issues that nagged them or ended their year early.

We have no idea at this point how this team is going to come together. 3 months ago, the general consensus seemed to be that Tony Mitchell was going to play primarily on the wing to develop himself for a future as an NBA small forward. But then he played in the paint (and played quite well) in the U-19 tournament... So maybe we were wrong in assuming that he wouldn't take on a traditional post role for us?

Before yesterday, many of us thought Forrest Robinson was going to be so raw that he'd need a year to develop before we could expect any serious contribution from him. Then, he goes out in an all-star game and shows that he might be able to make a fast impact. Even if he is ready to take on a notable role right away... How does a 6'10" wing-oriented player fit in to our offense? How do two of them fit in, with Niko Stojiljkovic also appearing to have that mentality?

Back in September, a lot of people might have made the case that Trey Norris was our best incoming point guard. Then Chris Jones went out and put up a season that has some of our big basketball fans saying that he'll likely be the biggest impact player in the class; bigger than Jordan Williams. What is Norris going to do for us, and how much is he going to play?

We don't know if Roger Franklin is going to get a hardship waiver and get to play immediately. We don't really know what Brandan Walton is going to bring to the table. We don't know if we'll fill the one remaining open scholarship before the season starts, or whether whoever that might be would be able to play this year.

The lineup on November 9th is not going to look like the lineup on December 18th, and neither will probably look like the lineup on March 3rd.

All we know is that we've got a great pool of talent to work with, but no idea how they'll fit together or how quickly they'll cohere. Tough to make predictions when it's all such a big question mark.

Right now, if I had to put odds on our shot at postseason play... I'd put us at about a 20% to go to the NCAA tournament, 30% to go NCAA or NIT, 75% to play postseason somewhere, whether it's the 2 big tourneys or a CBI/CIT deal.

But that 20-30% shoots up dramatically if Franklin gets a waiver and/or the freshmen come in and start with a bang.

MDH · July 27, 2011

We have a good chance, depends how the team comes together by conference tournament time. While talented, this will be a very young squad. Before Tony Mitchell I would've said a worse chance this year than we had going into last year, but here's to Tony being the x-factor. If Tony sticks around for the 2012-2013 season? Watch out.

NT03 · July 27, 2011

Sweet 16

Censored by Laurie · July 27, 2011

Sweet 16

Lumps on the line?

UNT90 · July 27, 2011

I'd tap the brakes of Robinson being an immediate contributor. No one, and I mean NO ONE played defense in that game last night, so don't judge him by how many points he had. That just means he can hit an open jumper (which he did).

He was way slow to the boards and avoided the inside as much as possible and didn't get up and down the court very well. Could be that he was just loafing in an All-Star game and didn't want to get hurt.

Either way, that game is nothing to judge him by. I wonder if Cooley or any of the other basketball guys has seen Robinson play in AAU competition. I would be really interested to see if he shies away from contact or not.

UNTflyer · July 27, 2011

The Texas Fab Five are going to shock the world.

Bet the farm on it.

mgfan · July 27, 2011

Didn't bet the farm but i did put some money on it.... Come on MEAN GREEN BB!

TheTastyGreek · July 27, 2011

I'd tap the brakes of Robinson being an immediate contributor. No one, and I mean NO ONE played defense in that game last night, so don't judge him by how many points he had. That just means he can hit an open jumper (which he did).

He was way slow to the boards and avoided the inside as much as possible and didn't get up and down the court very well. Could be that he was just loafing in an All-Star game and didn't want to get hurt.

Either way, that game is nothing to judge him by. I wonder if Cooley or any of the other basketball guys has seen Robinson play in AAU competition. I would be really interested to see if he shies away from contact or not.

Let's define "contributor" a little more precisely, then.

Because he doesn't have traditional post skills or the standard weight that a post player at the D1 level carries, and because he played against lower level competition (2A? 3A? I can't remember; I think it was 3A)... A lot of people (myself included) didn't think he'd be a rotation guy this year. Some people, before Knox's departure, even floated the notion that Robinson might be best served by redshirting a year to prepare for a more standard post role.

I'm not saying one all-star game makes me think the guy is going to come in and start for us. But if he can shoot and hold up his end at that level, even if it's a no-defense all-star environment... I can see him potentially being ready to play a 10-12 minute per night role. Something between what we got from Edwards/Knox and what we got from Holmen. That's what I mean by "contributor".

It's not just the game performance, it's that we've got fellow players and the coaches saying that Robinson is a legit 3 point threat. One of the best on the roster, from the quotes in the articles.

I thought he could be a major player in a year or two, but didn't expect anything at all for this upcoming season. Now, I think he might be bringing something to the table right away. Not something huge, but at least something.

MeanMag · July 27, 2011

Let's define "contributor" a little more precisely, then.

Because he doesn't have traditional post skills or the standard weight that a post player at the D1 level carries, and because he played against lower level competition (2A? 3A? I can't remember; I think it was 3A)... A lot of people (myself included) didn't think he'd be a rotation guy this year. Some people, before Knox's departure, even floated the notion that Robinson might be best served by redshirting a year to prepare for a more standard post role.

I'm not saying one all-star game makes me think the guy is going to come in and start for us. But if he can shoot and hold up his end at that level, even if it's a no-defense all-star environment... I can see him potentially being ready to play a 10-12 minute per night role. Something between what we got from Edwards/Knox and what we got from Holmen. That's what I mean by "contributor".

It's not just the game performance, it's that we've got fellow players and the coaches saying that Robinson is a legit 3 point threat. One of the best on the roster, from the quotes in the articles.

I thought he could be a major player in a year or two, but didn't expect anything at all for this upcoming season. Now, I think he might be bringing something to the table right away. Not something huge, but at least something.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that it looks like he brings as much to the court as Holmen has in the past. If the 3 point threat pans out, maybe more.

I'm hoping to see Holmen develop the mid range and help defense roles.

TheTastyGreek · July 27, 2011

I don't think it's a stretch to say that it looks like he brings as much to the court as Holmen has in the past. If the 3 point threat pans out, maybe more.

I'm hoping to see Holmen develop the mid range and help defense roles.

Holmen looked better in the last few weeks before his injury than at any point in the previous year and a half. He seemed to be embracing an inside role. He was cutting down on the mental miscues and bad decisions... His injury came at a terrible time not just for the team, but for his personal development as a Mean Green player.

Green Crazy · July 27, 2011

I'd tap the brakes of Robinson being an immediate contributor. No one, and I mean NO ONE played defense in that game last night, so don't judge him by how many points he had. That just means he can hit an open jumper (which he did).

He was way slow to the boards and avoided the inside as much as possible and didn't get up and down the court very well. Could be that he was just loafing in an All-Star game and didn't want to get hurt.

Either way, that game is nothing to judge him by. I wonder if Cooley or any of the other basketball guys has seen Robinson play in AAU competition. I would be really interested to see if he shies away from contact or not.

Robinson seems like a black Dirk...he's Blirk.

meangreen · July 27, 2011

Short answer: Too early to tell. There are only 4 returning scholarship players... One of them missed all of last season on a medical redshirt, and the other three all had medical issues that nagged them or ended their year early.

We have no idea at this point how this team is going to come together. 3 months ago, the general consensus seemed to be that Tony Mitchell was going to play primarily on the wing to develop himself for a future as an NBA small forward. But then he played in the paint (and played quite well) in the U-19 tournament... So maybe we were wrong in assuming that he wouldn't take on a traditional post role for us?

Before yesterday, many of us thought Forrest Robinson was going to be so raw that he'd need a year to develop before we could expect any serious contribution from him. Then, he goes out in an all-star game and shows that he might be able to make a fast impact. Even if he is ready to take on a notable role right away... How does a 6'10" wing-oriented player fit in to our offense? How do two of them fit in, with Niko Stojiljkovic also appearing to have that mentality?

Back in September, a lot of people might have made the case that Trey Norris was our best incoming point guard. Then Chris Jones went out and put up a season that has some of our big basketball fans saying that he'll likely be the biggest impact player in the class; bigger than Jordan Williams. What is Norris going to do for us, and how much is he going to play?

We don't know if Roger Franklin is going to get a hardship waiver and get to play immediately. We don't really know what Brandan Walton is going to bring to the table. We don't know if we'll fill the one remaining open scholarship before the season starts, or whether whoever that might be would be able to play this year.

The lineup on November 9th is not going to look like the lineup on December 18th, and neither will probably look like the lineup on March 3rd.

All we know is that we've got a great pool of talent to work with, but no idea how they'll fit together or how quickly they'll cohere. Tough to make predictions when it's all such a big question mark.

Right now, if I had to put odds on our shot at postseason play... I'd put us at about a 20% to go to the NCAA tournament, 30% to go NCAA or NIT, 75% to play postseason somewhere, whether it's the 2 big tourneys or a CBI/CIT deal.

But that 20-30% shoots up dramatically if Franklin gets a waiver and/or the freshmen come in and start with a bang.

Indeed.

KoldBeer · July 27, 2011

Tasty - What does Sun Belt look like this year. I agree that it's asking a lot of a team this young to have more than 25% shot at getting into NCAA. But if Sun Belt is as bad as last year then we probably have as good of chance as anybody. Now if it gets back to traditional levels it will be harder.

TheTastyGreek · July 27, 2011

Tasty - What does Sun Belt look like this year. I agree that it's asking a lot of a team this young to have more than 25% shot at getting into NCAA. But if Sun Belt is as bad as last year then we probably have as good of chance as anybody. Now if it gets back to traditional levels it will be harder.

Wide open, tough to predict. My grim expectation is that we're not going to be much better overall than we were last year, at least in terms of talent. Hopefully better RPI, assuming schools like ASU and Denver actually give a damn in OOC. ULL will be RPI improved (not exactly going out on a limb with that one...)

UALR looked like a strong favorite, but one of the reasons I liked them so much was a great lineup of bigs: Neighbor and Javes (incoming recruits) going alongside Gus Leeper. But Leeper is probably out for the year due to an offseason injury... So they won't have the frontcourt advantage I thought they would. Still should be a top 2 or 3 team in the West, and if I had to pick one team to win the regular season West, it would probably be them.

ASU doesn't bring in anyone that impresses me much. They should be down from last year... Weaker at PG, with the rest of the cast the same as the ones that couldn't get it done last year or the year before.

ULL continues to improve under Marlin, but I don't think they brought in any difference makers, either. They'll get some OOC wins (unlike last year), probably get 9 or 10 SBC wins, too. Put it this way... They won't be as bad as they were in OOC last year, and they won't be as good as they were against the SBC, either. Better overall, not good enough to win the conference on their own. A couple of teams will have to fumble it for the Cajuns to win (like we did last season).

I don't think Denver is a threat in the division, and ULM is a complete disaster. Last year was atrocious, this year may look like an intramurals squad.

In the East, WKU is practically a mirror image of our situation. Lost all their stars, brought in a lot of great talent (including a late pickup of a Turkish PG named Kaspar who could be the most critical addition of all). If they hit the ground running, the young talent is good enough to crush the rest of their division.

MTSU- does this sound familiar? Another year of JUCOs and D-1 transfers. The transfers are better than usual (LaRon Dendy and Torrin Walker), and there's talent already there. But guys like Dendy (JUCO to Iowa State to MTSU) are frequently more trouble than they're worth. Just ask WKU fans about Juan Patillo and whether his stats made them a better team than they were without him. And, of course, nobody in the league does less with more than Kermit Davis. I expect another year of bad OOC, uptick for SBC regular season, and a quick exit in the tournament.

FAU brings back pretty much everyone but Brett Royster, and their solution for replacing him seems to be throwing scholarships at every Florida community college student 6'9" and above. They've got excellent talent there, and Jarvis is a good coach... But nobody in the league was more critical to how their team could play, specifically in terms of player deployment and defensive approach, than Brett Royster was to FAU. That guy was a one man post defense. He kept Kore White from being a liability, and he allowed the undersized guards to defend tighter on the outside. With Royster as shot-blocking security blanket camped out in the paint, nobody had to worry much about giving up a lane to the basket if they happened to get beaten on the perimeter. Now, everyone has to defend differently and work harder just to maintain at the same level. As much as everyone here thought we needed someone to replace Tramiel... "Replacing" Royster will be 5x harder and more critical. Don't take my word for it, though- CBL should be along shortly to sing his praises. All in all, FAU is still the likely favorite in the East, but they won't be as formidable as they were last season.

USA, I'm not sure what happened to that team. They lost Martino Brock, who transferred to USF. Rubit is back, but they're planning on guys like Antoine Lundy playing major roles. Lundy, for anyone who remembers USA's trip to the Pit last year, was the guy who spent most of warmups screwing around and jacking up long distance 3 pointers from out of bounds. They spent most of April signing period biting their nails and hoping that a JUCO point guard named Trey Anderson would sign with them. Anderson is the critical part of their class, and I don't know that he's a better recruit than Brandan Walton (our early period JUCO signee, the one that had most of us underwhelmed and scratching our heads). Last year, I thought USA was going to be a contender. But they melted down, it looked like Arrow lost control of the team and/or just stopped giving a damn, and then they lost Brock on top of it all. This year could be the end of the line for Arrow.

FIU still has Isiah. Their roster last year proves you can't just throw highly ranked recruits on the floor and win. Isiah's bizarre coaching in the SBC tournament (if we didn't have a shot clock, their games would have had single digit scores) shows... I don't know what it shows. That program is a revolving door of suck. I don't see them challenging for the title with Thomas on the bench.

Troy had another head scratching recruiting class. They seem to just be killing time until their new arena opens up. Not sure what's going on with them.

greenminer · July 27, 2011

I like this thread.

TheTastyGreek · July 27, 2011

One more note on who might win the SBC autobid to the NCAA Tournament-

The last time a school won the SBC Tournament with an OOC record below .500 was before the year 2000.

UALR was very unusual last year in that they were one game below .500 against D1 OOC opponents. They were 8-7 overall, 6-7 against D1 schools. Other than a ULL team (that doesn't really count, because they vacated the records and their championships in 2004 and 2005), every other SBC rep since 2000 has been .500 or better against D1 OOC opponents.

Coaches who blow off OOC and try to peak for conference play and the SBC tournament haven't gotten rewarded with NCAA appearances.

Once January rolls around, look at which teams are .500 or better in OOC. History says those are your SBC Tournament contenders.

UNT90 · July 27, 2011

Let's define "contributor" a little more precisely, then.

Because he doesn't have traditional post skills or the standard weight that a post player at the D1 level carries, and because he played against lower level competition (2A? 3A? I can't remember; I think it was 3A)... A lot of people (myself included) didn't think he'd be a rotation guy this year. Some people, before Knox's departure, even floated the notion that Robinson might be best served by redshirting a year to prepare for a more standard post role.

I'm not saying one all-star game makes me think the guy is going to come in and start for us. But if he can shoot and hold up his end at that level, even if it's a no-defense all-star environment... I can see him potentially being ready to play a 10-12 minute per night role. Something between what we got from Edwards/Knox and what we got from Holmen. That's what I mean by "contributor".

It's not just the game performance, it's that we've got fellow players and the coaches saying that Robinson is a legit 3 point threat. One of the best on the roster, from the quotes in the articles.

I thought he could be a major player in a year or two, but didn't expect anything at all for this upcoming season. Now, I think he might be bringing something to the table right away. Not something huge, but at least something.

I agree that he may be able to take on a Holman-esqe role, but I don't believe it because of that All-Star game. We really don't know if he can move his feet on the defensive end and get in the right position. That is where I think he may be a huge liability his first year and what may keep him from playing those 10-12 minutes that may be needed from him.

All that said, we just don't know right now. I would love to see him play in a competetive situation, or hear from someone who has seen him in that situation. That All-Star game just brought up a couple of red flags for me for his contributions this year. Long term, I think he has the chance to be a great player.

GrandGreen · July 27, 2011

I think most of you of underplaying the talent that NT has coming in this year. It doesn't take long to be a big factor in BB, in fact most star BB players are very good their freshmen year. Last year was a big disappointment with a very experienced team. Yes there were injuries and a very short bench. Basketball is not football it doesn't take years to rebuild.

I have little doubt that Mitchell will be as good as there is in the Belt a few games after he steps on the court. Add to that Jones and Williams who are as good high school recruits as NT has had in decades. I feel much better about Robinson and feel he has great upside. Granted none of the returning players are going to get anyone too excited although all could have breakout years. The jucos I expect are better than they have shown on paper, but I think they will be ultimately back up players.

Mitchell could be as good as NT has ever had. Jones is very underrated on the national scene, remember he was chosen as the second best player in the Metroplex above everyone but the OK State signee who was rated best in the state. Williams and Jones have played on the highest high school level and it should not take them long to adjust to college ball. Franklin is an unknown, a great high school scorer who just didn't click at OSU.

It may be JJ most challenging year because everything is up in the air, but in a typical year NT would be counting Walton and Norrris as their best recruits. It is early but I think this team by year end will be a lot better than last year and their conference record should reflect that. With Mitchell, JJ doesn't have the luxury of waiting even one year for this team to gel, as he could very well be gone after this season.