Fall Practice Is Not Yet Here...

The Fake Lonnie Finch · June 7, 2011

...but, I'm ready to make my 2011 season prediction anyway. Sue me.

Game #1 - @ FIU: Win. 1-0

In 2007, FUI had a new coach and we had a new coach. Now, in 2011, FUI has that same coach and we have a different coach. But, it's not that we just have a new head coach. We have a new defensive coordinator. And, we have a real special teams coach who wears pants for the special teams. FUI has excellent special teams, but our new coach will teach our guys to pants them.

Game #2 - HOUSTON: Lose. 1-1

This is the first home game at the new stadium. Houston has a surgically repaired QB and return their leading rusher and receiver. It will be too much. Just too much to ask of us.

Game #3 - @ Alabama: Lose. 1-2

Alabama is the same team as the Crimson Tide.

Game #4 - INDIANA: Win. 2-2

QB, gone. Top rusher, gone. Two of top three WRs, gone. I'm not really upset and crying about their losses. They are young and on the road for this one, their first game outside of Indiana with their new head coach and new offensive players. The only thing that won't be new to them is losing a game.

Game #5 - @ Tulsa: Lose. 2-3

Tulsa made a huge mistake by elevating Bill Blankenship to head coach after Todd Graham left for Pitt. But, there is enough talent returning on both sides of the ball - especially from a young 2010 defense that went on the road and beat Notre Dame - that even having Blankenship on the sideline won't hurt them in some games. However, I do feel there is a strong chance of a UNT "upset" here for head coaching reason alone.

Game #6 - FAU: Win. 3-3

Howard Schnellenberger is old, but rich; so, this loss to UNT won't really weigh on him too terribly much personally. His FAU team underachieved last year, and I think he may finally be on his last coaching legs at the age of 77. I really think this is his farewell tour. If not, FAU fans - all 16 of them - are going to have to get used to being upstaged annually by FIU in conference.

Game #7 - @ Louiana: Win. 4-3

I'm not really sold on ULL's pick for new head coach. Forgot his name already, didn't you? Mark Hudspeth. Yes, that Mark Hudpseth. The former Mississippi State pass game coordinator. He also coached a Division II team. To say that our hire was light years better than his is an understatement - it's like Obi Wan Kenobi versus the Stormtroopers asking Luke Skywalker questions in Tatooine.

Game #8 - ULM: Win. 5-3

I think at this point, being 3-0 and conference and having the new stadium will start to kick in. Our roll continues here. I like Todd Berry. But, look...they fired a coach who was better. Thankfully.

Game #9 - @ Arkansas State: Win. 6-3

They have a relatively new head coach who led them to a 4-8 record last year, and return Ryan Aplin, as good QB. But, really...they barely beat us last year (24-19) at a point when we were playing Chase Bain at QB. We were down to our third center and had injuries all around, and they still had to hang on to beat us. Dunbar racked them for 105 yards...Baine for 80! I'm sure our new coaching staff can handle this opposing group of coaches. I think about new DC Clint Bowen in these types of match ups.

Game #10 - @ Troy: Lose. 6-4

Troy is who we think they are - a team that recruits like an SEC team. Until someone truly knocks them out, they are the kings of the hill in the Sun Belt.

Game #11 - WESTERN KENTUCKY: Win. 7-4

This is a young team. I like their head coach. I just don't think WKU has the horses. We beat them last year with a terribly injury-riddled team on the road. I don't think their coach or coaching staff has the upside ours does.

Game #12 - MTSU: Win. 8-4

The Blue Raiders were as loaded as a Sun Belt team could get in 2010 and couldn't seal the deal. Part scandal and part choke, they'll be younger in 2011. We beat them last year on the road, and will do so again in 2011 to clinch the Sun Belt from Troy, who I predict will choke away their final game of 2011 on the road at Arkansas State to finish 6-2 in the Belt...one game behind our 7-1 mark.

Game #13 - NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Don't know who we play, and don't care if we win. I'll just be glad we're going back again!

Edited June 7, 2011 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

Green2012 · June 7, 2011

I like it. I think FIU is the most important game of the season with indiana right behind. If we were to start off the season 0-3 this could kill the team morale. Indiana to me is the second most important game. I really hope we pull it out against houston. If we play like we did against Kstate its very possible. But, if we do lose to houston we must beat indiana at home to keep the fans. Just my 2 cents!

Edited June 7, 2011 by Green2012

greenminer · June 7, 2011

I can see RV waiving off any BCS attempt to interview D-Mac: These are not the coaches you're looking for.

We can beat Houston; Clint Bowen will line up Balrogs at DT.

ValleyBoy · June 7, 2011

Troy is who we think they are - a team that recruits like an SEC team. Until someone truly knocks them out, they are the kings of the hill in the Sun Belt.

Being from Alabama I would not say that Troy recruits like an SEC team. I would say that "Troy is able to recruit player head to head on a even playing field against non BCS football programs."

Yes, they are able to sign a few players that could play in the SEC, but there bread and butter is being able to recruit head to head against any Sunbelt, Conference USA, or MAC school.

Not every player can sign with a BCS team and Troy does a good job at signing these players.

If you check Troy roster almost every player listed is from either Alabama, Georgia, or Florida. If I counted correctly only 13 players listed on there roster are from other states.

untcampbell · June 7, 2011

Confession:

In the past, I have disagreed with the Fake. No news there. But I have to admit the guy was right more often, way more often, than not. Didn't always appreciate the presentation, but even I can now see much of his "don't shoot the messenger" diatribes regarding Dodge were spot on.

Fake, if you call this one right, I will deem you "Mean Green Genius" and more importantly, buy you many beers in New Orleans.

I look forward to meeting you at GMG.com 8.

GMG

The Fake Lonnie Finch · June 7, 2011

As stated before, my problem with Todd Dodge was never from the standpoint of him as a person. It was from the standpoint of him as a decision maker. But, that changed later in his tenure, even if the wins weren't coming.

I predicted a winning season for Dodge in 2010 because I felt he'd seen the light on what it takes to win at this level. He gave up the reigns - a huge sign that he wanted to win more than be considered an offensive genius.

By the end, I predicted he'd have another college coaching job when the dust settled. And, he does. Shockingly, with the head coach of one of my other alma maters - Tulsa - at a BCS school, Pitt! It's the weirdest turn of events I could have ever imagined for either of them.

Both BCS guys, former Texas high school success stories from a coaching standpoint, leading BCS teams that were nowhere near "busting" the BCS the way Utah and TCU had...and Pitt kicks out Dave Wannstedt for them?

Stranger, Tulsa elevates a coach with no college head coaching experience and only a couple of years of college assisting experience. Meanwhile, UNT hires a guy with bowls skins on the wall from several BCS-school stops. It's like TU and UNT are trading places in 2007!

As written last fall, I fully expect Dodge will be a head coach again, and perhaps at the pro level. It will do him some good to just work with the QBs. His genius will shine through. I just don't know if the gimmicky stuff Graham throws out there will stick in the Big East. As much as I like Tulsa, it's not like they were taking down giants.

I think TU only played 5 games against BCS schools when Graham was there, and they were 1-4, losing to OU twice, Arkansas and Oklahoma State once...and beating Notre Dame.

Pitt gambled. I'm happy for Dodge, but am probably as confused as the die hard Pitt fans who cheered for Dorsett, Hugh Green, and Dan Marino to see the hires.

I think time will show that our hire of Dan McCarney was better than any our Sun Belt foes made in 2010 or 2011. And, on his coaching staff are two guys I consider to be currently ready to be head coaches in Canales and Bowen. If we win the Belt in 2011, I'd bet Bowen is the first to be hired away. He's the guy who will have done the most with the least amount of returning talent.

Edited June 7, 2011 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

DeepGreen · June 7, 2011

Fake, I hope your predictions are correct. I just don't see it. Vito's article confirmed what I have thought for many years. Size-wise, UNT has always been on the short end across the board. McCarney confirms that. Sure, during any given season we may have had a some decent size FBS players on the roster, just not enough of them. McCarney sees the problem and will correct it, eventually. You know it's an issue when the upstarts like FIU are moving forward. I would be shocked and elated if we go .500.

BTW, where is Dave Wannstedt now?

UNT 90 Grad · June 7, 2011

BTW, where is Dave Wannstedt now?

Looks like he's with the Buffalo Bills.

Reedypoo · June 7, 2011

I hope your predictions are better than mine, but I just don't see that happening. Honestly, and realistically, I would be very happy with a 5-7 finish.

We got a new head coach, who I think has an opportunity to be one of the best we've had. I expect him to win a few SBC Championships before he hangs em up, but I'm not sold on this team yet.

Every time I think about the team my mind goes straight to the QB position. We don't have a proven QB and I think that could hurt us. I think every QB we've had since Scott Hall has been a dissapointment. Meager, Phillips, Wilson, Vizza (had a good year, but left the program), Dodge (who I liked, but couldn't avoid injuries), Tune (average).

And when was the last time we won the conference? With Hall. I know that's not the only reason we haven't won, but I think it plays a big role. I also know you don't have to have the greatest QB with #5 lined up in the backfield. I also know that Hall had #43 lined up behind him, but anyway...

That being said, I think we're lucky not to be 0-5 after the first five games. FIU is coming off a bowl win and we are playing at their house. That program is where we hope to be soon. Houston, Case Keenum was a Heisman candidate before his injury. He could be rusty, but I'd still take him any day. Alambama. Indiana might be the most winnable of the first five, but beating a Big-10 team isn't gonna be easy. Tulsa is also coming off a bowl win and we are at their place.

I would be extremely satisfied knocking off FIU and Indiana to start the year 2-3. Then if we could win 4 of the next 7 conference games that would put us at 4-6 wins. I think that's what we should expect, realistically.

I don't have the numbers infront of me, but we haven't won 4 games in a single season in at least five years??? I don't expect 8 this year. Maybe next year at the earliest.

But, who's to say we don't.

DeepGreen · June 7, 2011

"FIU is coming off a bowl win and we are playing at their house. That program is where we hope to be soon."

Sad that our aspirations are to be like a seven(?) year old FBS program.

GrandGreen · June 7, 2011

Not that I ever predict close, but next year is a real challenge. First year coach and new stadium and hopefully a new winning attitude. I don't think NT talent wise matches up with most of the fb division. However, I don't think that is true in the Belt; I think NT has at least average Belt talent. Add to that NT should have the best coaching staff in the Belt and the intangibles involved in a fresh start on a new field; and NT should challenge in the Belt. They were not that far off last year contending with the worst injury situation I have witnessed. I have a lot of confidence in Canales and his ability to make Thompson into a first rate QB.

My best prognostication now, is that NT will go 1-4 including an opening Belt lost to FIU in the first five games. NT will then go 6-1 and end up tied for the title at 6-2 with a season record of 7-5. A repeat of the DD hay days, with little oc success but the beginning of dominance of the Belt.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · June 7, 2011

And when was the last time we won the conference? With Hall. I know that's not the only reason we haven't won, but I think it plays a big role. I also know you don't have to have the greatest QB with #5 lined up in the backfield. I also know that Hall had #43 lined up behind him, but anyway...

.

And, here's where I think the key is - McCarney knows it's okay to win tough and dirty games. That is, it doesn't have to be pretty, just as long as it's a W. An ugly, "ground it out", defensive battle win is still a win. Many of our wins are going to be like that again.

Many of North Texas' caucasian fans believed that the Dodge Era would bring this slick, pretty passing game that would be unstoppable. The same crackers talked about how pity poor Darrell Dickey was for running, playing tough defense, and having good, reliable special teams.

McCarney's Iowa State teams were always smaller than their Big 12 foes with few exceptions. They in no way out-recruited Iowa in state. But, they were coached to win with a strong run game, a tough defense, and a good special teams.

Basically, what we are going to see in 2011 is UNT football 2001-2004, but with a more experienced group of coaches.

Also, I've got to be true to what I've said all along so as not to be hypocritical - climbing out of the Sun Belt hole ain't like crawling out of the Big 12 hole.

Look, we took down Middle Tennessee State last year in their imitation football stadium. They were one win away from sharing the Sun Belt title. One game. And, yet, our gimped up team with an interim head coach went in there and beat then. That, my friends, is the Sun Belt Conference.

I look at the other coaching hires in the Belt from 2010 and 2011, and there's really no comparison. We've got guys with all sorts of bowl and BCS-bowl experience - McCarney, Bowen, Canales, Riddle, Grant, Nelson, Quartaro, Simmonds, Wintrich. All of these guys helped BCS schools to bowl games. McCarney, Bowen, Riddle, and Grant helped schools to BCS bowl games.

The experience we have on this staff is nuts compare to what we've had in the past. Bowen, Riddle, and Grant alone are ridiculously experienced. Quartaro at the heart of K-State's rise with Bill Snyder? Nuts.

When you look at what we had with Dickey and Dodge, you can see that we now have an embarrassment of riches in experience.

We said we wanted experience, and to his credit, Rick Villareal went out and got us experience. There won't be a Sun Belt coaching staff these guys face that will compare to what they've already seen in the SEC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, and Pac-10. The only BCS AQ conference any of these guy haven't coached in is the ACC.

They've spent their careers working with, for, and against guys like Hayden Fry, Bob Stoops, Bill Snyder, Mack Brown, Les Miles, Urban Meyers, Gary Barnett, R.C. Slocum, Mike Stoops, Mike Bellotti, Tom Osborne, Tommy Tuberville, Nick Saban, Bo Pelini...it's crazy! Cray-zee that we have this much experience and talent assembled at humble, little UNT. Mark Hudspeth, Hugh Greeze, and Todd Berry aren't going to pull anything out of their hats that these guys haven't already seen - or done themselves!

So, when I make my prediction, I don't make it in a vacuum. You all know from history that I don't drink the kool-aid. We've been given what we wanted - real coaches working in a real stadium with real facilities all around.

If there was ever a group to truly move us upward and onward, it's this group. If there ever was a time to do it, it's now. There's no time like now, there's no place like our new home to do it in. It's time to go out and be that rags-to-riches story we've seen South Florida, TCU, and Connecticut become.

Edited June 7, 2011 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

Harry · June 7, 2011

Love the gospel according to Fake Lonnie but I think Reedypoo hit the nail on the head in terms of the quarterback position. We have no I-A experience heading into this season and that for me is a major concern. Scott Hall was one of our best QB's ever in my opinion and a future Hall of Famer, however in his first season he was running for his life most of the time. I think the talent level under Dodge fell so far down that it will take a couple of years to build it back up. Next year we will have a couple of QB's with I-A experience and the talent pool will start to show.

greenminer · June 7, 2011

Get a good line and a solid RB, and you can snap it to your grandma and win.

UNT90 · June 7, 2011

Get a good line and a solid RB, and you can snap it to your grandma and win.

Mean Green 93-98 · June 7, 2011

The only BCS AQ conference any of these guy haven't coached in is the ACC.

Tutoring quarterbacks has been a Canales forte as he left USF in 2001 to join North Carolina State as quarterbacks coach and pass game coordinator. While at NC State (2001-2002), he coached Phillip Rivers and also helped develop future NFL receiver Jericho Cotchery.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · December 6, 2011

...but, I'm ready to make my 2011 season prediction anyway. Sue me.

Game #1 - @ FIU: Win. 1-0
In 2007, FUI had a new coach and we had a new coach. Now, in 2011, FUI has that same coach and we have a different coach. But, it's not that we just have a new head coach. We have a new defensive coordinator. And, we have a real special teams coach who wears pants for the special teams. FUI has excellent special teams, but our new coach will teach our guys to pants them.

Game #2 - HOUSTON: Lose. 1-1
This is the first home game at the new stadium. Houston has a surgically repaired QB and return their leading rusher and receiver. It will be too much. Just too much to ask of us.

Game #3 - @ Alabama: Lose. 1-2
Alabama is the same team as the Crimson Tide.

Game #4 - INDIANA: Win. 2-2
QB, gone. Top rusher, gone. Two of top three WRs, gone. I'm not really upset and crying about their losses. They are young and on the road for this one, their first game outside of Indiana with their new head coach and new offensive players. The only thing that won't be new to them is losing a game.

Game #5 - @ Tulsa: Lose. 2-3
Tulsa made a huge mistake by elevating Bill Blankenship to head coach after Todd Graham left for Pitt. But, there is enough talent returning on both sides of the ball - especially from a young 2010 defense that went on the road and beat Notre Dame - that even having Blankenship on the sideline won't hurt them in some games. However, I do feel there is a strong chance of a UNT "upset" here for head coaching reason alone.

Game #6 - FAU: Win. 3-3
Howard Schnellenberger is old, but rich; so, this loss to UNT won't really weigh on him too terribly much personally. His FAU team underachieved last year, and I think he may finally be on his last coaching legs at the age of 77. I really think this is his farewell tour. If not, FAU fans - all 16 of them - are going to have to get used to being upstaged annually by FIU in conference.

Game #7 - @ Louiana: Win. 4-3
I'm not really sold on ULL's pick for new head coach. Forgot his name already, didn't you? Mark Hudspeth. Yes, that Mark Hudpseth. The former Mississippi State pass game coordinator. He also coached a Division II team. To say that our hire was light years better than his is an understatement - it's like Obi Wan Kenobi versus the Stormtroopers asking Luke Skywalker questions in Tatooine.

Game #8 - ULM: Win. 5-3
I think at this point, being 3-0 and conference and having the new stadium will start to kick in. Our roll continues here. I like Todd Berry. But, look...they fired a coach who was better. Thankfully.

Game #9 - @ Arkansas State: Win. 6-3
They have a relatively new head coach who led them to a 4-8 record last year, and return Ryan Aplin, as good QB. But, really...they barely beat us last year (24-19) at a point when we were playing Chase Bain at QB. We were down to our third center and had injuries all around, and they still had to hang on to beat us. Dunbar racked them for 105 yards...Baine for 80! I'm sure our new coaching staff can handle this opposing group of coaches. I think about new DC Clint Bowen in these types of match ups.

Game #10 - @ Troy: Lose. 6-4
Troy is who we think they are - a team that recruits like an SEC team. Until someone truly knocks them out, they are the kings of the hill in the Sun Belt.

Game #11 - WESTERN KENTUCKY: Win. 7-4
This is a young team. I like their head coach. I just don't think WKU has the horses. We beat them last year with a terribly injury-riddled team on the road. I don't think their coach or coaching staff has the upside ours does.

Game #12 - MTSU: Win. 8-4
The Blue Raiders were as loaded as a Sun Belt team could get in 2010 and couldn't seal the deal. Part scandal and part choke, they'll be younger in 2011. We beat them last year on the road, and will do so again in 2011 to clinch the Sun Belt from Troy, who I predict will choke away their final game of 2011 on the road at Arkansas State to finish 6-2 in the Belt...one game behind our 7-1 mark.

Game #13 - NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Don't know who we play, and don't care if we win. I'll just be glad we're going back again!

Well, although I made my season prediction the first week of June, I was still wrong. Happy we broke even in the Belt and had a winning record at home. But, I'm as optimistic now for 2012 as I was in June for 2011 despite the 5-7 finish.