Managing Expectations

Harry · February 21, 2011

http://www.gomeangreen.com/forums/blog/1/entry-38-managing-expectations/

Mean Green 93-98 · February 21, 2011

Good thoughts. I wouldn't go so far as to say I'm not concerned about the record the next year or two, because recruits may not be as understanding. And if we just feed to ball to Lance, with some good Chico change-ups on offense, we ought to be able to go 4-4 in conference easily.

UNT90 · February 21, 2011

Good article, although I think the lack of JUCO recruits has a lot more to do with the UNT staff not being able to convince top notch JUCO players (especially defensive tackles) to come to UNT (understandable with the short time to recruit), not a grand plan of recruiting high schoolers. I think Coach McCarney will take talent where ever he can find it right now.

Also, can we please stop calling 8 point games "down to the wire"? They aren't. We played well against K State, but the game was never in doubt in the last 10 minutes.

Edited February 21, 2011 by UNT90

Mean Green Matt · February 21, 2011

Also, can we please stop calling 8 point games "down to the wire"? They aren't. We played well against K State, but the game was never in doubt in the last 10 minutes.

That really depends on your personal optimism level...mine was too high.

TIgreen01 · February 21, 2011

Good article, but I just don't see this team producing anything less than they already have the last 6 years. There is no question that the loss of Shavod and K. Jackson is going to be huge, but listening to our new DC we're going to use the depth in our secondary to run a scheme filled with creative blitzes. I have no idea how that translates to stopping the run, esp. on short yardage, but HOW CAN WE MANAGE OUR EXPECTATIONS TO BE ANY LOWER THAN THEY ALREADY HAVE BEEN!!!?!

Todd Dodge has one of the 20 (not percentile, btw) worst head coaching records of ALL TIME, and we just sat through it.

Seriously, my expectations for the team are entirely wrapped around how well our QB plays. If someone steps up and is just average without being a turnover prone mess, our offense should be able to run on anyone on the schedule (outside of Bama). I realize we lost 3 good oline starters, but only one of them started in the group that absolutely demolished KSU. We add JJ back to that line, several good youngsters, and Andrew Power to TE. I expect that we'll be able to run the ball, and if not it will be a MASSIVE disappointment.

Our defensive performance is going to be all over the place. I think they will turn in some good games, but also get absolutely killed in a few. Our special teams should continue to improve with Olen and Atterbury returning. So really, if we can run the ball and control the clock, we should be in more games than we're not. Whether or not we actually win them? That's another story entirely. Dodge's teams never figured it out. I expect that Mac's teams eventually will.

Edited February 21, 2011 by TIgreen01

UNT90 · February 21, 2011

Personally, I think expectations should be raised, from the fans, to the players and coaches, and to the administration.

This is the Sun Belt. Coaching matters. If this staff is everything we believe it to be, 6 wins is not out of the question next year.

DallasGreen · February 21, 2011

Personally, I think expectations should be raised, from the fans, to the players and coaches, and to the administration.

This is the Sun Belt. Coaching matters. If this staff is everything we believe it to be, 6 wins is not out of the question next year.

I agree thoroughly with your comment. Never underestimate the ability of a great coach to "coach up" the talent that he inherits. The cupboard was not bare when Coach Mac arrived. A good new strength coach and coordinated position weight program will make a huge difference in linemen not to mention more 6" 4" recruits than I ever remember. The new coaches found our linemen to be mushy and blubbery. They don't want anyone whose waist is broader than his shoulders. Take a relook at some of the departing JUCOS under this standard and you'll see why even though we could get penetration on the rush we were too slow to pursue to make the sack, i.e. Atkinson,etc. We had barely escaped with one win the year before Hayden Fry took over, and Fry finished 5-5-1 in his first year and won the co-championship of the Missouri Valley Conference. Will there be rough spots such as a 'Bama blow out ? Of course, but don't underestimate the inspiration and new look that comes with the new staff. Do I wish that it could have come a year earlier? Hell yes, but the fact is it took a year to educate the BOR what a real D-1 coach and staff cost in these times. This puts us in a position to compete and win now and that's all any coach can do---put his players in a position to win. Coaches Mac and Chico guarantee that is possible now.

SilverEagle · February 22, 2011

All I have EVER expected from my North Texas teams is that they ALWAYS show up with an ATTITUDE and their "I DIDN'T COME HERE TO LOSE" t-shirts on under their uni's. The win/loss record will take care of itself after that.

It is MY EXPECTATION that we never, ever, have a head coach who says to a group of fans "I hope that when Dr. B looks up at the scoreboard tomorrow she remembers how much we're getting paid for this game". :angry:

untjim1995 · February 22, 2011

Usually, it takes at least two years to get a program turned around. Now, SMU was able to do it quicker with June Jones in 2009, as was Dennis Franchione when he went to TCU back in 1997, but generally it takes a while. Cristobal had to build up his program at FIU and now they are bowl winners. I just think that this year's record is kind of a mulligan. Just like Cristobal at FIU, McCarney is having to take over an absolutely beaten down program and its gonna take time just to convince them that they can be winners here. That sounds like we aren't raising expectations, but I do believe that year 2 is when we should expect a winning record and to compete for a bowl berth. Coach Mac is going to have to find and develop a QB and entire defensive front. Other than the OLine, those other two areas on your team are the hardest to build. Its gonna take some time.

My guess is that we will probably go 0-fer in OOC again, but we will be able to win 4-5 SBC games. Right now, ULL, WKU, and Ark State are games I think we win, and I think we will win at least another game against the next tier up in the SBC (FAU, MTSU, ULM). I think games at Troy and at FIU are probably out of reach right now, but, just as I want to see in the OOC games (sans Bama) is being able to compete. We might get beat by UH and Tulsa in OOC, but hopefully we can be competitive. At this juncture, I think that will help recruiting just as much as moving up a tier in the SBC would.

All About UNT · February 22, 2011

Good points ..... guys...why does everyone forget about Indiana and how

1.) They sucked last year...

2.) They are rebuilding with a new HC as well

3.) They are playing in our house...and it will draw a crowd

This is our strongest chance of winning an ooc game in 2011

NCMeanGreen · February 22, 2011

...And if we just feed to ball to Lance, with some good Chico change-ups on offense, we ought to be able to go 4-4 in conference easily.

So, our season goes the way Lance Dunbar goes? Eggs in one basket, huh? What happens if Lance gets injured??

Edited February 22, 2011 by NCMeanGreen

greenminer · February 22, 2011

So, are season goes the way Lance Dunbar goes? Eggs in one basket, huh? What happens if Lance gets injured??

Lance is pretty dang good, but our backups have shined when given the chance. I think we would be fine.

All About UNT · February 22, 2011

Lance is pretty dang good, but our backups have shined when given the chance. I think we would be fine.

Our backups are awesome...it's just that Hambone got injured and didn't get anywhere near the number of carries that LD did. Combine the backups with two freshman who should be able to compete right away...and we have an RB corps that I wouldn't trade for the world.

Mean Green Matt · February 22, 2011

We play in the Sun Belt. There is absolutely no reason in my mind why we whould not be competing for a bowl bid this year. I'm not saying we will get it, but I'm pretty sure that stealing one or two in OOC, and then winning 4 or 5 games in the Sun Belt is doable. 6 wins is all it will take. If this staff is as good as we think they are, they should be able to take the players we have right now and put a significantly imporoved football team on the field in September.

untjim1995 · February 22, 2011

We play in the Sun Belt. There is absolutely no reason in my mind why we whould not be competing for a bowl bid this year. I'm not saying we will get it, but I'm pretty sure that stealing one or two in OOC, and then winning 4 or 5 games in the Sun Belt is doable. 6 wins is all it will take. If this staff is as good as we think they are, they should be able to take the players we have right now and put a significantly imporoved football team on the field in September.

I read that line "We play in the Sun Belt" often, which I take as "this league is up for grabs every year". The only problem with that line of thinking is that it is fairly inaccurate. The bowl teams from the SBC have been: Troy, MTSU, and F_U over the course of the last 5 years. FIU just got their first bid this year, while FAU dropped off (could be similar to UNT's drop to oblivion in 2005 if the Owls aren't careful). I know that ULM and ULL have had years of late where they finished at that SBC Fabulous overall record of 6-6, but they each got no bowl invite. Maybe 6-6 UNT would get a bowl bid, but I am more focused on the idea that I want to see us get to 4 wins in a season, which would mark the first year above 3 wins since 2004. "We play in the Sun Belt", but I think we have a ways to go to get to where 6 wins is achievable, much less 7 or more, which is what the SBC champ will have. Troy, FIU, and MTSU will still be good teams in the SBC. I know we beat MTSU at their place last year, but I don't think that we will be favored against them this year, with our QB situation and DLine issues at play right now.

I don't doubt for a second that this staff is the best UNT has ever had in the last 30 years, and I think we will see big improvements as the year goes on, as well as on the recruiting front, but I also think that if we finish 4-8 or 5-7, that will be serious progress around here. I hope that folks don't lose sight of this, even with a brand new stadium finally at hand.

UNT90 · February 23, 2011

I don't doubt for a second that this staff is the best UNT has ever had in the last 30 years, and I think we will see big improvements as the year goes on, as well as on the recruiting front, but I also think that if we finish 4-8 or 5-7, that will be serious progress around here. I hope that folks don't lose sight of this, even with a brand new stadium finally at hand.

I don't consider 1 win a big improvement.

It's about results. We no longer have a high school coach, and should expect this staff to produce immediately. I would hope this coaching staff expects the same thing.

Just sayin...

Yellow Snow · February 23, 2011

I don't consider 1 win a big improvement.

It's about results. We no longer have a high school coach, and should expect this staff to produce immediately. I would hope this coaching staff expects the same thing.

Just sayin...

I get where you are coming from, but the win/loss record isn't the only measure of improvement. No doubt the coaches agree with you that it's all about results, but you might be setting yourself up for disappointment if you expect to see a drastically better record in the first year.

There is a reason UNT has struggled recently, and I don't think it can ALL be put on coaching. You need to have the players... recruiting is definitely part of coaching, but I'm not sure it is fair to expect Mac and staff to take players that haven't exactly torn up the Sun Belt and go bowling. I'd expect to see clear improvement on the field, but without knowing your roster, I don't know if it is fair to assume the improvement in play will result in more wins. I'd hope so, but wouldn't get all bent if it doesn't happen.

You need to have the players. No matter how well a guy is coached he still needs to get to the ball carrier in order to tackle him. It was kind of funny when Mac took over at Iowa State... us fans were really impressed that our defense wasn't missing a gajillion tackles any more. Now our guys were putting the ball carrier down. On his call in show when asked about it, Mac pointed out that the reason we didn't miss many tackles was because we weren't getting anywhere near the ball carrier in the first place. Funny, but true. You can't miss a tackle if you don't get within 5 yards of the guy. We simply weren't fast enough. Coaching can only take a guy so far. Not saying that coaching won't IMPROVE the play on the field next fall, but maybe not enough to effect the record as much as everybody would like.

Early in Mac's tenure, i looked for the little things. We quit having receivers running wild and free through our secondary while our db's covered each other. When we DID get to the ball carrier, we tackled him on the first try. We quit turning the ball over. We quit giving up crazy huge return yardage among other improvements. We still lost a lot of games at first but I could see improvement every game. The recruiting picked up, and suddenly these small improvements turned into consistent winning. It took time though.

Did Dodge leave Mac a bowl quality roster? I don't know, but if he did, he must have been completely inept last year. No matter how hard Mac tries to fix it, he's pretty much dealing with Dodge's roster this coming fall. So it is what it is for now.

Anyway - just throwing my 2 cents out there.

Yellow Snow · February 23, 2011

We play in the Sun Belt. There is absolutely no reason in my mind why we whould not be competing for a bowl bid this year. I'm not saying we will get it, but I'm pretty sure that stealing one or two in OOC, and then winning 4 or 5 games in the Sun Belt is doable. 6 wins is all it will take. If this staff is as good as we think they are, they should be able to take the players we have right now and put a significantly imporoved football team on the field in September.

This isn't the first place I have read it, so not picking on you... I just don't understand what you mean by this. All of the other teams in the Sun Belt also play in the Sun Belt. It seems to be a zero sum argument to me.

Mean Green Matt · February 23, 2011

This isn't the first place I have read it, so not picking on you... I just don't understand what you mean by this. All of the other teams in the Sun Belt also play in the Sun Belt. It seems to be a zero sum argument to me.

How would it be zero sum? With a new coaching staff we should be significantly improving on a team that competed pretty well despite terrible injury problems and an inferior (not all of them) coaching staff. Yes we will have some problem areas, but we are competing against Sun Belt teams. It's not like we have to run the conference gauntlet against the SEC. Even under the circumstances, I personally (I don't speak for everyone) think we have lowered the expectations way too much if we do not go into a game against say....ULL, or ULM and not expect to win. I think the same goes for FIU and Troy even though they are very much improved.

Thing is, to get to a bowl game, we only need to win 6 games (probably). If we can't win one of Houston, Indiana, or Tulsa, and then 5 in the SBC, I admit I will be disappointed. I won't be upset, because I know we have a lot to overcome, I still, for some reason feel that we need to expect more even out of a first year coach because: 1) he does not have a bare "pantry", and 2) we play in the SBC. Having a good game plan, Lance Dunbar staying healthy, and just having a defense that has been taught how to tackle should get us 4 wins in the SBC. We just need to find the other two wins somewhere.

Yellow Snow · February 23, 2011

How would it be zero sum? With a new coaching staff we should be significantly improving on a team that competed pretty well despite terrible injury problems and an inferior (not all of them) coaching staff. Yes we will have some problem areas, but we are competing against Sun Belt teams. It's not like we have to run the conference gauntlet against the SEC. Even under the circumstances, I personally (I don't speak for everyone) think we have lowered the expectations way too much if we do not go into a game against say....ULL, or ULM and not expect to win. I think the same goes for FIU and Troy even though they are very much improved.

Thing is, to get to a bowl game, we only need to win 6 games (probably). If we can't win one of Houston, Indiana, or Tulsa, and then 5 in the SBC, I admit I will be disappointed. I won't be upset, because I know we have a lot to overcome, I still, for some reason feel that we need to expect more even out of a first year coach because: 1) he does not have a bare "pantry", and 2) we play in the SBC. Having a good game plan, Lance Dunbar staying healthy, and just having a defense that has been taught how to tackle should get us 4 wins in the SBC. We just need to find the other two wins somewhere.

That makes perfect sense now. Basically, the difference between UNT and the rest of the Sun Belt (including conference favorite) is pretty small, so any improvement on UNT's behalf has the potential to really, really, effect the standings at the end of the year. The incremental improvements needed by UNT to move up the standings is pretty achievable relative to the potential of the other schools in maintaining status quo.

I agree with you on that one. Good point.

UNT90 · February 23, 2011

I get where you are coming from, but the win/loss record isn't the only measure of improvement. No doubt the coaches agree with you that it's all about results, but you might be setting yourself up for disappointment if you expect to see a drastically better record in the first year.

There is a reason UNT has struggled recently, and I don't think it can ALL be put on coaching. You need to have the players... recruiting is definitely part of coaching, but I'm not sure it is fair to expect Mac and staff to take players that haven't exactly torn up the Sun Belt and go bowling. I'd expect to see clear improvement on the field, but without knowing your roster, I don't know if it is fair to assume the improvement in play will result in more wins. I'd hope so, but wouldn't get all bent if it doesn't happen.

You need to have the players. No matter how well a guy is coached he still needs to get to the ball carrier in order to tackle him. It was kind of funny when Mac took over at Iowa State... us fans were really impressed that our defense wasn't missing a gajillion tackles any more. Now our guys were putting the ball carrier down. On his call in show when asked about it, Mac pointed out that the reason we didn't miss many tackles was because we weren't getting anywhere near the ball carrier in the first place. Funny, but true. You can't miss a tackle if you don't get within 5 yards of the guy. We simply weren't fast enough. Coaching can only take a guy so far. Not saying that coaching won't IMPROVE the play on the field next fall, but maybe not enough to effect the record as much as everybody would like.

Early in Mac's tenure, i looked for the little things. We quit having receivers running wild and free through our secondary while our db's covered each other. When we DID get to the ball carrier, we tackled him on the first try. We quit turning the ball over. We quit giving up crazy huge return yardage among other improvements. We still lost a lot of games at first but I could see improvement every game. The recruiting picked up, and suddenly these small improvements turned into consistent winning. It took time though.

Did Dodge leave Mac a bowl quality roster? I don't know, but if he did, he must have been completely inept last year. No matter how hard Mac tries to fix it, he's pretty much dealing with Dodge's roster this coming fall. So it is what it is for now.

Anyway - just throwing my 2 cents out there.

Again, this is the Sun Belt, not the Big 12. Not near the mountain to climb. Plus, you didn't have the benefit of seeing how poorly coached this team was the last 3 1/2 years.

It would be nice to coach without expectations. Just ask Todd Dodge about his 1st 3 years here. Those days need to be over. Now.

PlummMeanGreen · February 24, 2011

I don't consider 1 win a big improvement.

It's about results. We no longer have a high school coach, and should expect this staff to produce immediately. I would hope this coaching staff expects the same thing.

Just sayin...

No matter where our coach came from and one with D1 HFC experience is what some of us have only been waiting for for about 30+ years now; but no matter who our coach is......if our 2011 Mean Green football squad's team speed and lineman play is not even of upper division SBC quality, it will be a tough year. Talented football teams with good overall team speed have been known to make a fair coach turn from good to a great one.

The UH Coogs will have more team speed than North Texas because that is what CUSA schools know they have to recruit toward annually and come 3'rd or 4'th quarter of our new stadium's debut I'm afraid it will show on the scoreboard but still......that is why they play the game. Of course, the mighty college football game upset still gives all reasons to hope. From another era long gone by, I guess that is what happened in Knoxville, Tennessee, circa 1975, since we were hardly favored to win that game, either.

Traditionally on GMG.com, there will be much green kool-ade consumed (as there should be) between now and September 10'th, the date of our stadium debut game, but I sure wish Coach Mac and this staff could have coached our previous 2 season's football teams. For certain it would have given us a 2 year head start on where I believe Coach Mac will take Mean Green football but as said about such things "it is what is is" and we'll go with it as it is.

Patience may yet have to be another virtuous path for us to follow even with this staff because even the great Saint Hayden Fry :rolleyes: in his 2'nd year in MG Country had a 2-7-1 record so one just never knows with these new coaching regimes; but what we need from Coach Mac is a very solid foundation to be built that will eventually take us places (and rankings) never before seen in Mean Green Country. So.....the first 3 years from our most promising new coaching staff may frustrate some of our (understandably) very impatient elect could very well be the moral of this post.