Final Week Seeding Scenarios

Mean Green Matt · February 20, 2011

Well, ULM is definitely not the one I expected to lose if we did drop one, but it is what it is, and the scenarios resulting from it are not good, but could be worse. Absolutely nothing went our way tonight in the other games, but there is still some hope (it is just dwindling).

Here are the things that must happen for us to get a bye:

1. WE MUST win all three of our remaining games. (@ASU, DEN, @UALR) That means we finish with a 9-7 record.

2. UALR MUST WIN @ASU next Saturday.

3. The Loser of the DEN/ULL game must lose their 1 other game...this could mean: 1) Denver loses vs. USA tomorrow. OR 2) ULL loses @ULM next Saturday. If the loser of the DEN/ULL game wins their other game, we are eliminated from bye contention.

Depending upon which team wins the DEN/ULL game, this scenario would leave us tied with UALR, ASU, and DEN/ULL. If UALR happens to lose vs. USA on thursday, they would not be involved in the tiebreak. Regardless, UNT would win that tiebreak and receive the #2 seed, and a bye.

Unless I am missing something obvious (please tell me if I am), this is the only way we can still get a bye. I'm not saying I expect this to happen, in fact it is highly unlikely, but at least we know who we need to root for. The good news is that we will know going into the UALR game exactly what we are playing for, so if need be we can just conserve energy and prepare for Hot Springs.

I wish I had better news guys , but despite it all, Go Mean Green!

EDIT: I made a mistake...the change is in red above.

Edited February 20, 2011 by Mean Green Matt

CMJ · February 20, 2011

Well, ULM is definitely not the one I expected to lose if we did drop one, but it is what it is, and the scenarios resulting from it are not good, but could be worse. Absolutely nothing went our way tonight in the other games, but there is still some hope (it is just dwindling).

Here are the things that must happen for us to get a bye:

1. WE MUST win all three of our remaining games. (@ASU, DEN, @UALR) That means we finish with a 9-7 record.

2. UALR MUST WIN @ASU next Saturday.

3. One of the folliwing must happen: 1) Denver loses vs. USA tomorrow. OR 2) ULL loses @ULM next Saturday.

Depending upon which team wins the DEN/ULL game, this scenario would leave us tied with UALR, ASU, and DEN/ULL. If UALR happens to lose vs. USA on thursday, they would not be involved in the tiebreak. Regardless, UNT would win that tiebreak and receive the #2 seed, and a bye.

Unless I am missing something obvious (please tell me if I am), this is the only way we can still get a bye. I'm not saying I expect this to happen, in fact it is highly unlikely, but at least we know who we need to root for. The good news is that we will know going into the UALR game exactly what we are playing for, so if need be we can just conserve energy and prepare for Hot Springs.

I wish I had better news guys , but despite it all, Go Mean Green!

Thanks buddy. I appreciate these.

THOR · February 20, 2011

thanks for the updates. good job at doing them and keeping us abreast of the situation....breast!

Texas Stranger · February 20, 2011

if need be we can just conserve energy and prepare for Hot Springs.

It looks like that has been happening for over a month now.

Mean Green Matt · February 20, 2011

****UPDATE****

With the pretty much shocking loss by Denver to USA earlier, the scenarios have become even simpler. Regardless of what happens in the Denver/ULL game, our hopes for a bye will continue to Saturday (unless we lose @ASU). Obviously, these scenarios assume that we have won out and we end with a conference record of 9-7. Here are the two scenarios split by the result of the DEN/ULL game.

Scenario 1:

IF Denver loses to ULL on Thursday, we receive a bye if we win out, AND UALR wins @ Arkansas State on Saturday

Scenario 2:

IF Denver defeats ULL on Thursday, we get a bye if we win out and these two things happen....1) ULM defeats ULL on Saturday AND 2) UALR defeats Arkansas State on Saturday.

Edited February 20, 2011 by Mean Green Matt

Mean Green Matt · February 24, 2011

Here is the bracket heading into tonight. We have the possibility of being seeded anywhere from W2-W5. If we get seeded W2 (the least likely) we will play the winner of ULM and WKU/MTSU. If we do not get a bye, our first round opponent will likely be either Troy, USA, or FIU, although if WKU collapses late, they could be a first round opponent as well. The teams in Red are locked into their seed. In my opinion, the W5 seed has the easiest path of any non-bye seed right now.

Edited February 24, 2011 by Mean Green Matt

BonfireBrian · February 25, 2011

Here is the bracket heading into tonight. We have the possibility of being seeded anywhere from W2-W5. If we get seeded W2 (the least likely) we will play the winner of ULM and WKU/MTSU. If we do not get a bye, our first round opponent will likely be either Troy, USA, or FIU, although if WKU collapses late, they could be a first round opponent as well. The teams in Red are locked into their seed. In my opinion, the W5 seed has the easiest path of any non-bye seed right now.

That was my thought as well. You avoid both Arkansas schools (who have more of a homecourt than anyone), and you have WKU and FAU on the other side of the bracket. Of course, all of that could quickly change tonight.