Why The West Can Still Be Won

[Mean Green Matt]

I finally got around to typing this up. This is going to be pretty long, but this is the situation we are in. This shows what can occur if we win out. That would mean we win our three remaining games at home, and then the two road games in Arkansas. ASU worries me significantly more than UALR, but that does not matter at this point. I am going to be working with the loss column a lot, and here are the current loss numbers for West Division contenders:

Denver - 4

Arkansas State - 4

ULL - 5

UALR - 5

UNT - 6

Now, if we win out, our final record will be 10-6, and by virtue of winning out, UNT would give losses to ASU, UALR, and Denver. Losses for contenders would then be:

Denver - 5

Arkansas State - 5

ULL - 5

UALR - 5

UNT - 6

There are many things that can happen, but this scenario ONLY considers what is completely in our control, which means our own games, as well as games between certain teams that guarantee there are losses to go around. These games are UALR @ ASU, ASU @ ULL (tonight), and Denver @ ULL. For this scenario we are assuming these teams win all other games they play. There are eight possible ways that these games can work themselves out, and I basically used sort of a binary system to do it.

(0) UALR @ (1) ASU

(0) ASU @ (1) ULL

(0) Denver @ (1) ULL

Using those 0's and 1's to show who wins, the eight scenarios are (from top to bottom): 1. 000 2. 100 3. 010 4. 001 5. 110 6. 011 7. 101 8. 111

Here are the outcomes of those scenarios:

1) Denver wins the west (11-5)...UNT, UALR, ASU tied for #2. UNT would be 4-0 head to head vs. those teams and would win the tiebreak. Bye #1: Denver; Bye #2: North Texas.

2) UNT, ASU, UALR and Denver all tied for SBCW title. UNT wins the tiebreak with a 5-1 record between the 3 other teams. Bye #1: North Texas; Bye #2: depends.

3) Denver wins the west (11-5)...UNT, ULL, and UALR tied for #2. UNT with a 3-1 record against those teams gets the second bye. Bye #1: Denver; Bye #2: North Texas.

4) All five teams tied for the title. UNT wins the tiebreak with a 6-2 record against involved teams. Bye #1 North Texas; Bye #2: depends.

5) Denver wins the west (11-5)...UNT, ASU, and ULL tied for #2. UNT wins the tiebreak with a 3-1 record against involved teams. Bye #1: Denver; Bye #2: North Texas.

6) ULL wins the west (11-5)...UNT, ASU, UALR, and Denver tied for #2. UNT wins the tiebreak with a 5-1 record against involved teams. Bye #1: ULL; Bye #2: North Texas

7) ASU wins the west (11-5)...UNT, ULL, and Denver tied for #2. All three teams are tied head to head, but UNT's 8-2 record vs. the west division wins it. Bye #1: ASU; Bye #2: North Texas.

8) ULL wins the west (11-5)...UNT, ASU, and Denver tied for #2. With a 3-1 record vs. involved teams UNT wins the tiebreak. Bye #1: ULL, Bye #2: North Texas.

If we win out, we are guaranteed a bye. The fact that almost all of our losses have come to the east division helps with tiebreaks, and if we win out, we will literally hold every tiebreak possible against every west division team. These scenarios also assume all involved teams win all of their other games. With certain breaks, it would be possible for UNT to go 4-1 in this stretch and still get a bye.

Once the ASU/ULL game tonight has been played, 4 of these scenarios will disappear. We are getting down to crunch time. For what its worth, of these scenarios, here are the potential west division champions:

Denver - 3 scenarios

North Texas - 2 scenarios

ULL - 2 scenarios

ASU - 1 scenario

Hope that wasn't too long for you guys. It will basically be cut in half tonight, and we could also get a boost from a UALR loss. Go Mean Green!

Edited February 17, 2011 by Mean Green Matt

[CMJ]

I sorta had a feeling that we were still in this given the schedule. However, I don't wanna dwell on any possibilities till we win another game.

[Mean Green Matt]

I sorta had a feeling that we were still in this given the schedule. However, I don't wanna dwell on any possibilities till we win another game.

Me neither. I just figured I would throw that out there to show that all is not lost quite yet.

[NT03]

However, I don't wanna dwell on any possibilities till we win another game.

AND THAT STARTS TONIGHT MOFO's !!!!!

GMG !!

[CMJ]

Me neither. I just figured I would throw that out there to show that all is not lost quite yet.

Definitely not. Just need to get a couple of wins to get some confidence and see what happens from there. Even with fewer teams in the mix, the East is bunching up at the top too. Don't sleep on WKU - they're very much in play for a bye as well.

Edited February 17, 2011 by CMJ

[greenminer]

Really Really hope we get enough turned around to secure a bye.

[SUMG]

Good work, Matty.

And the schedule does favor us a bit....in that we have two easily winnable home games in a row....and if we win those, get some confidence back....I think the toughest remaining obstacle would be the game in J'boro. Because I think if we can get on a roll....we can beat Denver at home and UALR in LR.

Go Mean Green!

[Green Lantern]

One of the Bball Forum OG's really needs to start a proper "Huge 5 game stretch" thread. We've gotten away from that this year when our heads all got swelled with the great start to the season. This team and JJ obviously feel like there wont be consequences for losses and that's led to complacency. I really like to hear from the masses what they think the consequences for losing games going forward should be (starting tonight!).

We've really let the team down by not doing our part this year.

[Uh Paul in uh]

Good stuff, it starts tonight with a win

[CMJ]

Can we get an update on this when you get the chance Matt?

[Mean Green Matt]

Can we get an update on this when you get the chance Matt?

Working on it right now.

[Mean Green Matt]

Ok, here we go. After the Saturday games I will start a new "last week" thread for these scenarios, but for now it can just get added on to here:

The big things tonight were ULL beating ASU, and WKU beating UALR (its not a huge deal, but does give UALR an extra loss in case something wacky happens). With the Cajuns victory, 4 of the scenarios above are eliminated. The scenarios that are still alive are numbers 3, 5, 6, and 8. The remaining scenarios below have been changed to take into account the UALR loss, and once again take into account ONLY what is in our control, or inevitable (if two teams play, one has to lose). Here are the 4 scenarios:

1) If Denver wins @ ULL...and UALR wins @ ASU: Denver wins the west (11-5)...UNT and ULL tied for #2. UNT wins the tiebreak by virtue of a better record vs. all west division teams. Bye #1: Denver; Bye #2 North Texas.

2) If Denver wins @ ULL...and ASU wins vs. UALR: Denver wins the west (11-5)...UNT, ULL, and ASU tie for #2. UNT wins the tiebreak with a 3-1 record vs. all involved teams. Bye #1: Denver; Bye #2: North Texas.

3) If ULL wins vs. Denver...and UALR wins @ ASU: ULL wins the west (11-5)...UNT and Denver tied for #2. UNT wins the tiebreak with a better record vs. all west division teams. Bye #1: ULL; Bye #2: North Texas.

4) If ULL wins vs. Denver...and ASU wins vs. UALR: ULL wins the west (11-5)...UNT, ASU, and Denver tied for #2. UNT wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record vs. all involved teams. Bye #1: ULL; Bye #2: North Texas.

So, as long as we keep winning, we WILL get a bye. It seems funky, but because ULL beat ASU, we now need help to get the west division title. It is not impossible though. There are also a couple games on Saturday that could hand losses to a couple of these teams:

ASU @ Troy - ASU has not looked great on the road and Troy is playing well of late.

WKU @ ULL - The toppers can help us out a lot with a win on Saturday.

After those two games, the help is pretty much gone, and we need to take care of business ourselves. Once I get some brainpower back, I'm going to try and see if there is anyway to still get a bye if we drop 1 of these last 4. My initial guess is that it would be nearly impossible.

Go Mean Green!

[Mean Green Matt]

So I went back and tried to figure out the scenarios for if we lost one more game (particulary one of the two in Arkansas). There are way too many scenarios to figure out at this point (I think there are 64, but it may be 128), but it IS possible to still get a bye even if we lose 1 more. The picture is going to become much more clear after tomorrow...

Let's just say that Troy beating ASU, and WKU beating ULL are very important, if not imperative to our chances of getting a bye if we do not win out.

REMEMBER THOUGH...all of this is a non-issue if we do win out. Win out. Get a bye. That simple.

Go Mean Green!