Worst Case Realignment

CMJ · January 20, 2011

San Jose State last I heard is hanging by a thread with their athletic program and being in California with its economic problems would hardly make them a viable candidate in my opinion. I know we're all placing all our respective schools in the MWC, but with the MWC already having a San Diego presence with the Aztecs, I think their next (larger) TV market could very well be the North Texas Metroplex, but we know not all makes sense with some of these re-alignment decisions from past history. too.

GMG!

What does San Diego have to do with San Jose? San Jose is clear on the other end of the state - pretty near San Francisco.

PlummMeanGreen · January 20, 2011

What does San Diego have to do with San Jose? San Jose is clear on the other end of the state - pretty near San Francisco.

TV market.

Addendum: 2 words: "TV market" merits 2 red numbers? I am amused with those who would give 2 red numbers for 2 words, ie, TV market?

Harry, you sure you want to keep this feature? To me its more a grading system on those who post the red numbers than the posts itself and might make some ask the question.............what's crawled up their arses to make them put red numbers on 2 words.........."TV market." Only at North Texas, folks, only at North Texas. There is a reason we are where we are and an over-abundance of progressive thinking alums is not one of them.

Edited January 20, 2011 by PlummMeanGreen

CMJ · January 20, 2011

TV market.

Again...San Jose is NOT in the San Diego TV market - so why mention it? You specifically said the MWC already has a presence in SD with the Aztecs, which is true. But SJSU would give you another area entirely. It's like saying a conference shouldn't want Houston because they have TCU. Doesn't make any sense.

PlummMeanGreen · January 20, 2011

Again...San Jose is NOT in the San Diego TV market - so why mention it? You specifically said the MWC already has a presence in SD with the Aztecs, which is true. But SJSU would give you another area entirely. It's like saying a conference shouldn't want Houston because they have TCU. Doesn't make any sense.

Now Courtland, lets read together the orignial post below (in italics) once again. I know the geography of California pretty well since I actually had relatives there (San Franciso) in the 60's who were visited by their Texas kin back in the day (Personally, I loved the city of Sausalito across the bay).

Also, I am not making any comparison with San Diego versus San Jose (region or TV markets) that you seem to see in my post below, either. I am saying that the MWC already has "a CA. presence w/o comparing any CA. TV markets at all--or Texas TV markets for that matter.

If there is anything else you are reading into my below post, let me know about that, too--who knows, there may be a TV sitcom idea between the lines somewhere. :rolleyes:

San Jose State last I heard is hanging by a thread with their athletic program and being in California with its economic problems would hardly make them a viable candidate in my opinion. I know we're all placing all our respective schools in the MWC, but with the MWC already having a San Diego presence with the Aztecs, I think their next (larger) TV market could very well be the North Texas Metroplex, but we know not all makes sense with some of these re-alignment decisions from past history. too.

GMG!

Edited January 20, 2011 by PlummMeanGreen

CMJ · January 20, 2011

How about this part.

San Jose State last I heard is hanging by a thread with their athletic program and being in California with its economic problems would hardly make them a viable candidate in my opinion. I know we're all placing all our respective schools in the MWC, with the MWC already having a San Diego presence with the Aztecs, I think their next (larger) TV market could very well be the North Texas Metroplex....

Again....What does the MWC having a TV presence in San Diego have to do with anything? If the MWC is in in Southern & Central (Fresno State) California, it is quite reasonable they'd like to be in Northern California as well.

Edited January 20, 2011 by CMJ

PlummMeanGreen · January 20, 2011

How about this part.

Again....What does the MWC having a TV presence in San Diego have to do with anything? If the MWC is in in Southern & Central (Fresno State) California, it is quite reasonable they'd like to be in Northern California as well.

How funny you are. Writing comedy out in the land of fruits and nuts now?

Courtland, what does the price of wheat have anything to do with anything, too? Enlighten us all and explain that one.

Get your DHS buddies together now, have some fun with some red ink (as usual) and lets pray for Mean Green basketball sucess. Wait a minute! What does Mean Green basketball have to do with anything?

CMJ · January 20, 2011

How funny you are. Writing comedy out in the land of fruits and nuts now?

Courtland, what does the price of wheat have anything to do with anything, too? Enlighten us all and explain that one.

Get your DHS buddies together now, have some fun with some red ink (as usual) and lets pray for Mean Green basketball sucess. Wait a minute! What does Mean Green basketball have to do with anything?

Point of fact, I didn't even graduate DHS. More to the point, other than Emmitt, I didn't goto High School with anyone on this board that I'm aware of?

(But if anyone who might read this board and went to Ryan High School in the mid 90's with me & wants to say howdy, I'd appreciate it.)

Again...you are not answering my question, and instead sought to joke by bringing up commodities or something. Why bring up markets that San Jose is nowhere NEAR? This isn't like TCU/NT/SMU being in the same market and saying one influences the fortunes of the other. SDSU has no effect on SJSU other than maybe the fact they both are in the same Cal State system.

Edited January 20, 2011 by CMJ

shaft · January 20, 2011

San Jose State would be the MWC's 5th choice. #1 is Utah State, #2 is UTEP, #3 Houston, #4 SMU.

Houston and SMU aren't going to give up a comfortable divisional schedule for the MWC.

So to answer the thread original question what would happen if all the CUSA schools stayed put and the MWC took two teams from the WAC?

The WAC would die and the SBC would add LA Tech and one from the grouping of NMSU/UTSA/TXST to get to 12.

ColoradoEagle · January 20, 2011

It's late and I'm going to put on my oversized tinfoil hat. First, a timeline of MWC events, interspersed with our own.

June 11, 2010 - Boise State joins MWC.

June 17, 2010 - Utah joins the PAC 10

July 14, 2010 -

August 19, 2010 - First rumors of TCU to the Big East appear.

August 19, 2010 - Nevada and Fresno State join the MWC.

August 31, 2010 - BYU goes independent in football, joins WCC for all other sports.

September 23, 2010 - Chuck Neinas' assessment of North Texas is complete.

October 20, 2010 - Todd Dodge fired as North Texas HC.

November 29, 2010 - TCU joins the Big East.

November 30, 2010 - North Texas hires Dan McCarney.

December 11, 2010 - Hawaii joins MWC as football-only member.

January 19, 2011 - FOI reveals North Texas has eclipsed the coaching budget under Dodge (~$950,000) with new coach McCarney (~$1,735,000).

I was thinking about this timeline in general while taking a long walk in the cold with my dog tonight. Getting this out of the way first, obviously none of this may be related. It could simply be that Dodge was in his last year and headed out the door, and we have more money, so we spent more on McCarney. End of story.

The conspiracist in me, though, thinks there's more to it than that. First is the timing of our hiring of Neinas. At this point, we already know that we have more money coming into the program once the student fee kicks in, so do we really need to bring someone aboard to tell us to pay our coaches more? I remember the rumors of us hiring a consultant started sometime in June, right before the upheaval began within the MWC. As isolated as we feel sometimes, I think it's fair to say RV has contacts. Neinas could have been hired because RV felt like an opportunity might present itself for us in CUSA and/or the MWC, or it could have been at the request of one or both of those conferences as that keeps the motivation behind the hire more discrete.

Along the same lines, the rush to fire Dodge was a bit surprising. Obviously it wasn't surprising that he was fired so much as the ultimatum set down by RV that he wanted to have his new coach by the Kansas State game (-ish). Almost one month later, TCU joins the Big East and North Texas makes a hire the next day that isn't too far off from doubling its previous staff's salaries. This is just a couple weeks before the MWC adds Hawaii in football to go to the very awkward scheduling number of 10.

I'm not saying there has been a grand master plan on the part of CUSA or the MWC. What I am saying, however, is that while we like to joke about the athletic department sitting back and watching all of this go by, it seems like at the very worst they're being proactive, and at the very best they've been in contact with one or both conferences on what we can do to make ourselves more palatable for the topic of expansion in the MWC or filling a hole in CUSA should one open up.

Disclaimer: I'm not drunk, but a bit euphoric about the Mavs ending their skid tonight against the Lakers.

Green Mean · January 20, 2011

San Jose isn't a bad market. It is surprising that SJSU struggles that much in football and it's finances since they are in the hub of so many tech companies. I still say the MWC needs to go after UNT and UH assuming UH doesn't get the Big East invite. You are getting two big markets and catering your conference to about 12-14 million people. USU and UTEP being picked over us and UH would be a disastrous choice I think.

ColoradoEagle · January 20, 2011

San Jose isn't a bad market. It is surprising that SJSU struggles that much in football and it's finances since they are in the hub of so many tech companies.

The problem is SJSU is in the position we are, except worse. For it to be that bad for us, SMU and TCU would have to be replaced by UT-Austin and A&M, we'd have to bring in another NFL team that plays in Ft. Worth, set up another MLB team in Southlake, and virtually triple the interest in UT-Arlington basketball.

They may be in a big market, but unlike UNT, they never stand a chance of gaining any traction unless both Cal and Stanford start pumping out 0-12 seasons, the Raiders get moved, the A's are relocated somewhere other than San Jose, and SJSU starts putting up conference championships and tournament appearances. They had 8,500 people at their last game of the year.

CMJ · January 20, 2011

The problem is SJSU is in the position we are, except worse. For it to be that bad for us, SMU and TCU would have to be replaced by UT-Austin and A&M, we'd have to bring in another NFL team that plays in Ft. Worth, set up another MLB team in Southlake, and virtually triple the interest in UT-Arlington basketball.

They may be in a big market, but unlike UNT, they never stand a chance of gaining any traction unless both Cal and Stanford start pumping out 0-12 seasons, the Raiders get moved, the A's are relocated somewhere other than San Jose, and SJSU starts putting up conference championships and tournament appearances. They had 8,500 people at their last game of the year.

Don't forget the Sharks - who have a very loyal fanbase.

PlummMeanGreen · January 20, 2011

Point of fact, I didn't even graduate DHS. More to the point, other than Emmitt, I didn't goto High School with anyone on this board that I'm aware of?

(But if anyone who might read this board and went to Ryan High School in the mid 90's with me & wants to say howdy, I'd appreciate it.)

Again...you are not answering my question, and instead sought to joke by bringing up commodities or something. Why bring up markets that San Jose is nowhere NEAR? This isn't like TCU/NT/SMU being in the same market and saying one influences the fortunes of the other. SDSU has no effect on SJSU other than maybe the fact they both are in the same Cal State system.

"The answer my friend is blowin' in the wind. (Move on....I have).

GMG!

Mean Green Matt · January 20, 2011

It would be really great to not be in the Sun Belt...

but I think the worst case scenario is any scenario that ends with UNT being a member of the WAC. Obviously we would have to bring that upon ourselves, but if the MWC or CUSA do not work out, we need to just stay put.

Aquila_Viridis · January 21, 2011

It would be really great to not be in the Sun Belt...

but I think the worst case scenario is any scenario that ends with UNT being a member of the WAC. Obviously we would have to bring that upon ourselves, but if the MWC or CUSA do not work out, we need to just stay put.

NT ain't going to the WAC. I think both the WAC and CUSA as we know it will fall apart. We should get best of CUSA and Belt plus La Tech together and make a new conference and just get it over with. Losers in the WAC and SBC going back to FCS. Staying put NOT an option. South Alabama? In an era of sustainability, this is not sustainable. The landscape is shifting, we HAVE TO move and we CAN influence.

I don't know why all the hate by others for La Tech. This should be a regular opponent for us. LSU keeps ULs down - makes the media use Lafayette city name etc., a stigma not shared by La Tech. They at least have tradition, the bobcat do not have that, LT should not have to suffer the same fate.

Yellow Snow · January 21, 2011

but what is the motivation for ND to join the Big 12? (or any conference for that matter)

they have much more built in rivalries with Big Ten/Big East schools and truly have great deal already in place...

so unless the BCS falls apart (3 years) and Super Conferences are formed (outside shot at 5 years) ND is extremely content with where it is at.

If ND joins a conference it will be the Big 12. As was stated earlier, the Big 12 allows their own TV deal, has unequal revenue sharing, etc. They would have everything they have now, and then some.

One thing people keep overlooking about this thing is that Notre Dame will have to fill a schedule. All of these traditional rivalry games may not be possible going forward with BOTH the Big 10 and Pac 12 going to 9 game conference slates. Now teams like Michigan State, USC, Michigan, and such will be forced to drop a non-con game. Conventional wisdom says that with the added conference games, these schools won't keep playing ND. Strength of schedule and bowl eligibility issues... Why should they keep the ND game? Nostalgia? If it comes down to going to bowl games regularly or keeping nostalgia alive, bowl games will win.

If ND joined the Big 12, they'd completely alleviate any of their scheduling problems PLUS be in an AQ conference (most likely in the North) they would have a reasonable shot at winning. In addition, they are free to broker any TV deal they want... AND keep all the cash (exactly what they have now). It's a win/win. Frankly, I'm not sure why they wouldn't want to join, other than because they are stubborn.

Texas ain't going anywhere now that they are burning c-notes to light their cigars... they certainly aren't going independent... see the Notre Dame argument above, same thing applies. Only ND has the benefit of a national RELIGIOUS following. They are a nationwide sellable product. Texas... no offense to you Texans... but nobody really cares outside of Texas for the most part. They are interesting to college football fans because they are a player on the national stage, but seriously, would any of you tune in to Trojan TV, or Roll Tide TV? I wouldn't. The only reason I'd watch Bevo is because we play them.

Anyhoo... to sum it up.

Big 12 - not going to die

Notre Dame - not going to join a conference other than the Big 12 (if they join a conference)

Texas - Has more money than God

USC - sucks donkey parts

Oklahoma is announcing the formation if it's own TV network... Big 12 north schools are in talks to team up and produce their own TV thing... Everybody's happy... Everybody has more money than before… Nebraska and Colorado are gone… Things are good… This Big 12 disintegration talk makes no sense.

Yellow Snow · January 21, 2011

The Big 12 would be the only conference that ND could still have the ability to create their own network with and that does not have equal revenue sharing. There really isn't very many options for ND outside of the BE, B12 and B10. Using ND to anchor the N with the inclusion of a BYU would give the Big 12 a legit media deal for the conference all the while providing those schools that want and can sustain a network the option.

This is a combination of the SEC model that allows the team to control the local rights and the best parts of the Big 10 model that provides an independent platform that specializes in just their conference.

2 years will tell the tale so to speak. If this works how it is intended, expect the OU alone, A&M, TT, Baylor and OSU as a group, and the B12 N schools as a group to all follow suit. This would lay the ground work for the Big 12 to accept ND and BYU.

This is exactly the truth

Very, very well said my friend.

golfingomez · January 21, 2011

If ND joins a conference it will be the Big 12. As was stated earlier, the Big 12 allows their own TV deal, has unequal revenue sharing, etc. They would have everything they have now, and then some.

One thing people keep overlooking about this thing is that Notre Dame will have to fill a schedule. All of these traditional rivalry games may not be possible going forward with BOTH the Big 10 and Pac 12 going to 9 game conference slates. Now teams like Michigan State, USC, Michigan, and such will be forced to drop a non-con game. Conventional wisdom says that with the added conference games, these schools won't keep playing ND. Strength of schedule and bowl eligibility issues... Why should they keep the ND game? Nostalgia? If it comes down to going to bowl games regularly or keeping nostalgia alive, bowl games will win.

If ND joined the Big 12, they'd completely alleviate any of their scheduling problems PLUS be in an AQ conference (most likely in the North) they would have a reasonable shot at winning. In addition, they are free to broker any TV deal they want... AND keep all the cash (exactly what they have now). It's a win/win. Frankly, I'm not sure why they wouldn't want to join, other than because they are stubborn.

nope... your off on points here...

yes, texas has their own network, but they will only have one game on that network, the conference will still be tied to a network (ABC/ESPN almost undoubtedly) as far as the Big Ten(+2) they are still staying with an 8 game conference schedule, much like the Big 12 had.

Noter Dame can still schedule their friends in the Big Ten and play the service academies... along with throwing a few games at other punching bags, don't be mistaken though, anybody in the country would be more than happy to play ND because its a guaranteed sellout...

Noter Dame likes where they are at, and would only join the Big Ten if they are forced to... they have no desire to be in a conference where UT would outshine them...

Yellow Snow · January 21, 2011

nope... your off on points here...

yes, texas has their own network, but they will only have one game on that network, the conference will still be tied to a network (ABC/ESPN almost undoubtedly) as far as the Big Ten(+2) they are still staying with an 8 game conference schedule, much like the Big 12 had.

Noter Dame can still schedule their friends in the Big Ten and play the service academies... along with throwing a few games at other punching bags, don't be mistaken though, anybody in the country would be more than happy to play ND because its a guaranteed sellout...

Noter Dame likes where they are at, and would only join the Big Ten if they are forced to... they have no desire to be in a conference where UT would outshine them...

Big 10 is going to a 9 game conference schedule. Iowa plays Iowa State in the non-conference every year and that contract is being re-negociated (or dropped all together) due to both teams going to 9 game schedules in the future. Each team, Iowa and ISU need 7 home games minimum. We both can't get that playing each other home/home in the non-conference as well as playing a 9 game conference slate. Cyclone fans have been debating the merits of this ad nauseum. We know what we are talking about on this one.

Anyway, I don't know what year the 9 game thing starts for the Big 10, but it's coming. The Big 10 has no advantage over the Big 12 when it comes to Notre Dame, other than the history of the rivalries. Ohio State would outshine them in the Big 10 just as easily.

My money is on them joining a conference as a scheduling necessity when the Big 10 goes to a nine game schedule. Of course teams would schedule them for the sell out, but they wouldn't be marquee teams in AQ conferences. Teams like Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State make enough extra money they don't NEED the sell out. It's not worth the potential loss.

golfingomez · January 21, 2011

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/38490/non-aq-offseason-to-do-list

untjim1995 · January 24, 2011

Big 10 is going to a 9 game conference schedule. Iowa plays Iowa State in the non-conference every year and that contract is being re-negociated (or dropped all together) due to both teams going to 9 game schedules in the future. Each team, Iowa and ISU need 7 home games minimum. We both can't get that playing each other home/home in the non-conference as well as playing a 9 game conference slate. Cyclone fans have been debating the merits of this ad nauseum. We know what we are talking about on this one.

Anyway, I don't know what year the 9 game thing starts for the Big 10, but it's coming. The Big 10 has no advantage over the Big 12 when it comes to Notre Dame, other than the history of the rivalries. Ohio State would outshine them in the Big 10 just as easily.

My money is on them joining a conference as a scheduling necessity when the Big 10 goes to a nine game schedule. Of course teams would schedule them for the sell out, but they wouldn't be marquee teams in AQ conferences. Teams like Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State make enough extra money they don't NEED the sell out. It's not worth the potential loss.

I completely agree with your assessment here. Notre Dame wants nothing to do with the Big Ten, for whatever reasons. Their alumni are vehemently against joining that league. I don't know if it is due to the other schools in that league being close competitors or because most of the Big 10 is publically funded. If the the Bevo Conference were to add BYU (which I completely believe will happen), they will court Notre Dame on three huge facets: 1.) You get to keep your NBC deal to yourself + share in funds from conference earnings. 2.)You will be the in a conference that gives you the Midwest to yourself within the conference(basically) but opens up the fertile Texas recruiting grounds even more to you. 3.) You will be in a conference with the largest Mormon school and the largest Baptist school in the country--faith based institutions that may not have much in common theologically, but certainly have common traits in higher learning. BTW, all Notre Dame is scheduled to play both schools in the next few years already.

ColoradoEagle · January 24, 2011

If the worst case is in fact here, and the MWC has chosen USU and SJSU, then there is no movement in CUSA and so no movement for us out of the SBC. At that point, would the SBC add pick two of NMSU/La Tech/Texas State-San Marcos and call it a day?

Edited January 24, 2011 by ColoradoEagle

UNTFan23 · January 24, 2011

If the worst case is in fact here, and the MWC has chosen USU and SJSU, then there is no movement in CUSA and so no movement for us out of the SBC. At that point, would the SBC add pick two of NMSU/La Tech/Texas State-San Marcos and call it a day?

I see the Sun Belt adding NMSU and maybe LaTech if they beg enough but not Texas State.