Worst Case Realignment

KoldBeer · January 19, 2011

Here's a story out of the San Jose paper on MWC expansion. It says SJSU is being looked at (I'm beginning to think none of the CUSA schools will change). If none of CUSA schools go MWC (maybe UTEP would consider it) then it could likely be SJSU, Utah St, and North Texas for the final two spots. You never know what will happen but if the MWC picks SJSU and USU. UNT would be shut out of CUSA (no membership changes) and MWC (no picked for expansion). At that point, do we stay with Sun Belt or join WAC since it could be loaded with former Southland members. There is no question that the WAC would be a worse conference but at least it would Texas schools. Another thought would be just to stay in Sun Belt because eventually there will be more realignment and you can move up then. Or you stay because the Sun Belt would be the better conference (although I don't know how much better it is $$$$ wise).

Without looking at numbers, my gut is that you would stay in the Sun Belt. The "new" WAC wouldn't have much travel but it is really watered down.

Story on MWC looking at SJSU

http://www.mercurynews.com/sjsu-spartans/ci_17131570?nclick_check=1

Story on WAC expansion

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2011/01/18/san-jose-state-to-the-mountain-west-its-on-the-table/

Under worst case this is what WAC could look like:

Idaho

New Mexico St.

La Tech

UTSA

Texas St

Lamar*

Sam Houston*

Cal Davis*

Cal Poly*

Non-Football

Denver

Seattle*

* Not currently in conference

Also, Montana and Montana St. are listed as potential schools.

PlummMeanGreen · January 19, 2011

San Jose State last I heard is hanging by a thread with their athletic program and being in California with its economic problems would hardly make them a viable candidate in my opinion. I know we're all placing all our respective schools in the MWC, but with the MWC already having a San Diego presence with the Aztecs, I think their next (larger) TV market could very well be the North Texas Metroplex, but we know not all makes sense with some of these re-alignment decisions from past history. too.

GMG!

Edited January 19, 2011 by PlummMeanGreen

ColoradoEagle · January 19, 2011

The story basically says that SJSU has talked with the MWC once, but that they're not an expansion candidate. The author is getting people's hopes up when there's nothing to indicate that he should be doing that. Part of the reason, if you believe the rumors, that the MWC is flirting with the idea of USU is due to advertising committing to contracts if USU is invited. What I've seen are mainly Nike and MGM. I doubt SJSU has this in place. This also completely ignores the idea that 1) Thompson (commissioner) has said they want a foothold in Texas and 2) that schools like CSU, UNM, and Wyoming probably don't want to see the balance of power move to the west. Top all of this off with SJSU bringing in 8,467 for their final game of the year against La. Tech, and I just don't see it.

To answer the question, though, should that incredibly unlikely event happen (SJSU to the MWC), we would stay with the SBC.

VideoEagle · January 19, 2011

The story basically says that SJSU has talked with the MWC once, but that they're not an expansion candidate. The author is getting people's hopes up when there's nothing to indicate that he should be doing that. Part of the reason, if you believe the rumors, that the MWC is flirting with the idea of USU is due to advertising committing to contracts if USU is invited. What I've seen are mainly Nike and MGM. I doubt SJSU has this in place. This also completely ignores the idea that 1) Thompson (commissioner) has said they want a foothold in Texas and 2) that schools like CSU, UNM, and Wyoming probably don't want to see the balance of power move to the west. Top all of this off with SJSU bringing in 8,467 for their final game of the year against La. Tech, and I just don't see it.

To answer the question, though, should that incredibly unlikely event happen (SJSU to the MWC), we would stay with the SBC.

Don't forget the state of California is broke. With the WAC having collapsed, I would be surprised if there is not pressure on them to drop football from the State of California. It's easier to sell forcing SJSU dropping football than laying off unionized state workers.

Coffee and TV · January 19, 2011

It would be worst case, but it wouldn't be completely awful. While the SBC ain't exactly blowing people away, anything that keeps us from going WAC or Independent is lateral.

DeepGreen · January 19, 2011

Under worst case this is what WAC could look like:

Idaho

New Mexico St.

La Tech

UTSA

Texas St

Lamar*

Sam Houston*

Cal Davis*

Cal Poly*

Non-Football

Denver

Seattle*

Surely we are smarter than joining this conference. If we do, I'm outta here! I've got better things to do with my time and money than to support UNT joining a conference like that.

PlummMeanGreen · January 19, 2011

Lets not forget that the Big East is not done with expansion and the only likely target is CUSA unless they go after one of the Sun Belt, which is VERY unlikely.

I would expect UCF to go Big East to get them to 10. Then the real hand wringing will take place.

East Carolina or Memphis? Except I think Louisville would black-ball the Tigers from getting in.

I can't imagine any school from the SBC since we still seem to be looked on as the lepers colony of FBS football.

I take that back...North Texas would be a great traveling partner for another Big East school in the vicinity; of course, a little bit of bias working here on that one! :rolleyes:

GMG!

Edited January 19, 2011 by PlummMeanGreen

Daddy Dumpsalot · January 19, 2011

Surely we are smarter than joining this conference. If we do, I'm outta here! I've got better things to do with my time and money than to support UNT joining a conference like that.

Quitter.

I've stayed with the Belt surely you can withstand this. After-all don't we support our school no matter what conference we're in???

:thumbsd:

golfingomez · January 19, 2011

If UCF goes the CUSA will have to make some real hard choices. Either they shift the balance of power of the conference more towards the west and leave ECU and Marshall as outliers or they have to pick up someone else in the SE. The choices really are not that great for CUSA in that regards.

If ECU goes then MTSU actually becomes a legit option to CUSA.

I still think that there will be some pretty large conference movement that will see the Big 12 capture ND and another school, the Big East snag UCF, then UH and the MWC grab SMU/UTEP and USU. That leaves the CUSA with some pretty large holes and very little recourse but to go after Latech, UNT and MTSU. This would really shift the alignments of the non-BCS conferences and probably kill the WAC completely.

Notre Dame... if they were forced to join a conference... would not join the Big 12...

basically, any big time program will not want to join the Big 12... DeLoss Dodds scares all those programs away

also, if the MWC picks UTEP, I'm still not sure we would have that great of a shot to go to C-USA

ColoradoEagle · January 19, 2011

also, if the MWC picks UTEP, I'm still not sure we would have that great of a shot to go to C-USA

The only way this is true is if they decide to shift the conference east.

golfingomez · January 19, 2011

my deal is... who wants UNT in C-USA if that happens?

maybe an outside shot of Rice? or UH?

risinggreen · January 19, 2011

Here's a story out of the San Jose paper on MWC expansion. It says SJSU is being looked at (I'm beginning to think none of the CUSA schools will change). If none of CUSA schools go MWC (maybe UTEP would consider it) then it could likely be SJSU, Utah St, and North Texas for the final two spots. You never know what will happen but if the MWC picks SJSU and USU. UNT would be shut out of CUSA (no membership changes) and MWC (no picked for expansion). At that point, do we stay with Sun Belt or join WAC since it could be loaded with former Southland members. There is no question that the WAC would be a worse conference but at least it would Texas schools. Another thought would be just to stay in Sun Belt because eventually there will be more realignment and you can move up then. Or you stay because the Sun Belt would be the better conference (although I don't know how much better it is $$$$ wise).

Without looking at numbers, my gut is that you would stay in the Sun Belt. The "new" WAC wouldn't have much travel but it is really watered down.

Story on MWC looking at SJSU
http://www.mercurynews.com/sjsu-spartans/ci_17131570?nclick_check=1

Story on WAC expansion
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2011/01/18/san-jose-state-to-the-mountain-west-its-on-the-table/

Under worst case this is what WAC could look like:

Idaho
New Mexico St.
La Tech
UTSA
Texas St
Lamar*
Sam Houston*
Cal Davis*
Cal Poly*

Non-Football
Denver
Seattle*

* Not currently in conference
Also, Montana and Montana St. are listed as potential schools.

Didn't even know that Sam has begun the process of going FBS. If that is true, Stephen can't be too far behind. Wouldn't be surprised if there are tougher move up rules on the horizon. Guess it will all be irrelevant if (when) the big boys go the superconference route. I'm afraid that all these move ups will probably tend to hasten that super conference creation, and that might not be too good for our situation if we suddenly end up on equal footing with most of our old SLC mates. Time to start winning.

ColoradoEagle · January 19, 2011

my deal is... who wants UNT in C-USA if that happens?

Houston, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa. Not sure what Rice's view would be, and I think it's pretty obvious Marshall and ECU would push for an eastern team.

DeepGreen · January 19, 2011

Quitter.

I've stayed with the Belt surely you can withstand this. After-all don't we support our school no matter what conference we're in???

Nice. I'm not into spending my money on basically an FCS conference. And if you are at the Club Seating donation level or higher, we can talk about at the first game in the new stadium. If not, then there is no need to discuss.

Edited January 19, 2011 by DeepGreen

ColoradoEagle · January 19, 2011

In this case, there's smoke but there's no fire. From the Boise State beat writer:

http://voices.idahostatesman.com/2011/01/19/ccripe/mountain_west_may_move_boise_statetcu_football_game_boise_league#ixzz1BVnxUtky

A report in the San Jose Mercury News indicated San Jose State could be an expansion target. Thompson said the only conversation with the Spartans was when the school called him to ask that it be considered.

Also of interest in that article:

Only UNM, CSU, Wyoming, AFA, UNLV, SDSU, and Boise State have voting rights when it comes to expansion.
Thompson isn't ruling out the possibility of changing network affiliations for TV.

golfingomez · January 19, 2011

The Big 12 would be the only conference that ND could still have the ability to create their own network with and that does not have equal revenue sharing. There really isn't very many options for ND outside of the BE, B12 and B10. Using ND to anchor the N with the inclusion of a BYU would give the Big 12 a legit media deal for the conference all the while providing those schools that want and can sustain a network the option.

This is a combination of the SEC model that allows the team to control the local rights and the best parts of the Big 10 model that provides an independent platform that specializes in just their conference.

2 years will tell the tale so to speak. If this works how it is intended, expect the OU alone, A&M, TT, Baylor and OSU as a group, and the B12 N schools as a group to all follow suit. This would lay the ground work for the Big 12 to accept ND and BYU.

but what is the motivation for ND to join the Big 12? (or any conference for that matter)

they have much more built in rivalries with Big Ten/Big East schools and truly have great deal already in place...

so unless the BCS falls apart (3 years) and Super Conferences are formed (outside shot at 5 years) ND is extremely content with where it is at.

Edited January 19, 2011 by golfingomez

TheTastyGreek · January 19, 2011

If we don't get a bid to move up in the conference world, then we need to do whatever keeps us in a league with Western Kentucky.

They are the only program with legitimate expectations of success and the support to see it through. They strive for excellence, not presence and adequacy, and having them as a stalking horse is invaluable. Either we match their program's commitment and improve, or at least we'll be losing to a school that actually does athletics right.

If WKU is in the Belt, we should stay in the Belt. If they go elsewhere, we should try to stick with them.

Unless we get to move up, we need to align ourselves with schools that actually give a damn and put forth the effort and resources to succeed. Geography is less important to me (assuming we're not flying to Alaska or Hawaii to play water polo) than administrative competence and alumni support/expectations.

1) MWC

2) C-USA

3) Stick with WKU and challenge each other to new heights

eppy4life · January 19, 2011

Nice. I'm not into spending my money on basically an FCS conference. And if you are at the Club Seating donation level or higher, we can talk about at the first game in the new stadium. If not, then there is no need to discuss.

After all, Deep Green will only speak to his equals. I hope one day I'll make enough money to get a 5 minute conversation with him.

But then again, by that point we may be in the WAC and he'll be known as Deep Violet in Ft. Worth.

Daddy Dumpsalot · January 19, 2011

Nice. I'm not into spending my money on basically an FCS conference. And if you are at the Club Seating donation level or higher, we can talk about at the first game in the new stadium. If not, then there is no need to discuss.

:thumbsu:

Ahh great point. I forgot that since you spend more than everyone else you have different rights. Why don't you come down to the economy section at the first game in the new stadium and we can discuss it there?

Censored by Laurie · January 19, 2011

After all, Deep Green will only speak to his equals. I hope one day I'll make enough money to get a 5 minute conversation with him.

I've been trying to marry into that family for years.

DeepGreen · January 19, 2011

:thumbsu:

Ahh great point. I forgot that since you spend more than everyone else you have different rights. Why don't you come down to the economy section at the first game in the new stadium and we can discuss it there?

Look, if I want to watch UNT play FCS football we should just join the Southland and call it a day. FWIW, I plan on having a seat in the bottom bowl section. The Club Level was to help do my part in getting that new stadium built. A stadium that I would prefer to watch FBS caliber football rather than the likes of UT-San Antonio, Cal-Davis or Lamar.

TennesseeBoyintheRockies · January 19, 2011

The story basically says that SJSU has talked with the MWC once, but that they're not an expansion candidate. The author is getting people's hopes up when there's nothing to indicate that he should be doing that. Part of the reason, if you believe the rumors, that the MWC is flirting with the idea of USU is due to advertising committing to contracts if USU is invited. What I've seen are mainly Nike and MGM. I doubt SJSU has this in place. This also completely ignores the idea that 1) Thompson (commissioner) has said they want a foothold in Texas and 2) that schools like CSU, UNM, and Wyoming probably don't want to see the balance of power move to the west. Top all of this off with SJSU bringing in 8,467 for their final game of the year against La. Tech, and I just don't see it.

To answer the question, though, should that incredibly unlikely event happen (SJSU to the MWC), we would stay with the SBC.

You are exactly right. The only reason why the Mountain West is looking at San Jose State is to determine the market value of San Jose against El Paso and Dallas-Fort Worth. About your point saying that Craig Thomspon is pushing the Mountain West to keep a foothold in Texas? You are right again. The MWC has affirmed its desire to stay in the Lone Star State, and it is trying its darndest to get UTEP, but they are also looking at North Texas. I have reason to believe that UNT will wind up in the Mountain West before San Jose State unless the league is able to pull in UTEP which is still at the negotiation table despite what the Miner fans are saying.

There's a reason why the Sun Belt hasn't just reached out to invite New Mexico State like many have wondered. It's because Wright Waters knows that there's a good chance that the league footprint's western most point could be Lafayette, Louisiana after 2012. For that reason, there is no justification for the SBC to expand more to the West.

VideoEagle · January 19, 2011

You are exactly right. The only reason why the Mountain West is looking at San Jose State is to determine the market value of San Jose against El Paso and Dallas-Fort Worth. About your point saying that Craig Thomspon is pushing the Mountain West to keep a foothold in Texas? You are right again. The MWC has affirmed its desire to stay in the Lone Star State, and it is trying its darndest to get UTEP, but they are also looking at North Texas. I have reason to believe that UNT will wind up in the Mountain West before San Jose State unless the league is able to pull in UTEP which is still at the negotiation table despite what the Miner fans are saying.

There's a reason why the Sun Belt hasn't just reached out to invite New Mexico State like many have wondered. It's because Wright Waters knows that there's a good chance that the league footprint's western most point could be Lafayette, Louisiana after 2012. For that reason, there is no justification for the SBC to expand more to the West.

I still have serious doubts about NT's chances of joining the MWC this time around.

But wouldn't it be ironic if La Tech gets invited to the Belt to replace NT!

TennesseeBoyintheRockies · January 19, 2011

I still have serious doubts about NT's chances of joining the MWC this time around.

But wouldn't it be ironic if La Tech gets invited to the Belt to replace NT!

Belt doesn't need to add La Tech. Without them, the league is at ten members (plus South Alabama). If UNT is invited to another league, the Sun Belt is at nine members (plus South Alabama) which is even better for football conference schedules. Another reason why the SBC isn't jumping on the expansion train right now. No, I think Louisiana Tech will stay in the more Central Time Zone-friendly WAC.

Edited January 19, 2011 by TennesseeBoyintheRockies

PlummMeanGreen · January 20, 2011

You are exactly right. The only reason why the Mountain West is looking at San Jose State is to determine the market value of San Jose against El Paso and Dallas-Fort Worth. About your point saying that Craig Thomspon is pushing the Mountain West to keep a foothold in Texas? You are right again. The MWC has affirmed its desire to stay in the Lone Star State, and it is trying its darndest to get UTEP, but they are also looking at North Texas. I have reason to believe that UNT will wind up in the Mountain West before San Jose State unless the league is able to pull in UTEP which is still at the negotiation table despite what the Miner fans are saying.

There's a reason why the Sun Belt hasn't just reached out to invite New Mexico State like many have wondered. It's because Wright Waters knows that there's a good chance that the league footprint's western most point could be Lafayette, Louisiana after 2012. For that reason, there is no justification for the SBC to expand more to the West.

:blink: Have you followed San Joses' program the last decade? It sucks like no other and if there is a school that truly cannot pull in their own market it would be San Jose State.

I know we are all speculating on this MWC business, but I don't think Craig Thompson's league is giving 2 iotas of mental energy toward the direction of San Jose, CA.