Official Texas Rangers Off-Season Thread

[Censored by Laurie]

2010 was one hell of a ride and with all of the young talent on the Rangers' roster I think it may be a bit too easy for Rangers' fans to fall into the assumption that playoff baseball will become the norm for the next 5 seasons. However, Major League Baseball is littered with one year wonders...so what questions/moves does Jon Daniels have to answer/make in order to keep this team atop the AL West?

1. Cliff Lee - obviously the biggest soap opera. Lee was a giant reason for the 2010 run, but he is going to cost...and in my opinion, cost more than the Rangers can/will offer. While there will be more money available via new ownership, TV contract, actual fan interest...I don't think the Rangers payroll will simply leap into Yank, Sox, Phil, territory and if they try to compete in the money whip of Lee, they may be doing so at the expense of other players who will be due significant raises in the near future. I'd expect the Rangers to go to around $100M over 5-6 years...but for Lee to command 120-135 over that time.

2. Internal payroll increases - The Rangers' payroll is going to make a pretty sizable jump up next season (and over the next couple) even before free agency or a Cliff Lee bidding war. Colby Lewis's salary jumps to $3M from $1.75M...C.J. Wilson is arbitration eligible and will get more than his $3.15M from 2010...Vlad has a mutual option at $7.5M (I think?), up from $5.5M...Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton are arbitration eligible and will get a HUGE raises from the $450K and $3.25M, respectively, they made this season...decisions will have to be made on veterans like Murphey, Molina, and Franceour...youngsters like Feliz, Andrus, Hunter and Ogando are still under cheap contracts through at least 2011, but I'd think efforts will be made to get some of these players locked up before they can go to free agency.

3. First Base - Mitch Moreland had a very solid post season and I think has probably solidified his spot as a starter entering next season. He works pitchers well, fields his position well and showed some power flashes during the regular season...but I think the Rangers would be right to hedge their bets at what is usually such a significant position for run production and power. Chris Davis is still controlled through 2011...but...Jorge Cantu's time in Texas was anything but impressive, but he has a track record as a productive MLB player...perhaps his late struggles will under-value him on the FA market, and if so the Rangers would be right to bring him back at the right price. Paul Konerko and Derrick Lee are both free agents, but wouldn't be platoon options and would costly. Troy Glaus and Xavier Nady could be good values.

4. Catcher - resign Molina? resign Treanor? Teegarden as back-up? Not much in the FA market...well, save for Joe Mauer...I think keeping Molina is probably the best option.

5. Ace, if not Lee - Lewis and Wilson are great number 2s, but if Lee walks I think the Rangers need another top tier arm...maybe not a true ace, but someone (or 2) with similar Lewis, Wilson stuff and numbers. Ted Lilly, Bronson Arroyo, Joe Blanton, Hiroki Kuroda, Brandon Webb, Chris Young and Carl Pavano are all free and the type of FA the Rangers may look at to boost their rotation.

[Censored by Laurie]

2011 Opening Day Roster without Cliff Lee

Rotation

1. Colby Lewis

2. CJ Wilson

3. Joe Blanton

4. Chris Young

5. Tommy Hunter

Bullpen

1. Neftali Feliz

2. Darren O'Day

3. Alexi Ogando

4. Clay Repada

5. Michael Kirkman

6. Frank Francisco

Catcher

1. Bengie Molina

2. Matt Treanor

Infielders

1. Mitch Moreland

2. Ian Kinsler

3. Elvis Andrus

4. Michael Young

5. Troy Glaus

6. Andres Blanco

Outfielders

1. Josh Hamilton

2. Nelson Cruz

3. David Murphey

4. Jeff Francoeur

5. Corey Patterson

6. Vlad Guerrero

2011 Opening Day Roster with Cliff Lee

Rotation

1. Cliff Lee

2. Colby Lewis

3. Tommy Hunter

4. Derek Holland

5. Scott Feldman

Bullpen

1. Neftali Feliz

2. Darren O'Day

3. Alexi Ogando

4. Clay Repada

5. Michael Kirkman

6. Mark Lowe

Catchers

1. Bengie Molina

2. Taylor Teagarden

Infield

1. Mitch Moreland

2. Ian Kinsler

3. Elvis Andrus

4. Michael Young

5. Andres Blanco

6. Chris Davis

Outfield

1. Josh Hamilton

2. Nelson Cruz

3. Julio Borbon

4. Craig Gentry

5. Brandon Boggs

6. Austin Kearns

[Censored by Laurie]

Interesting Scrap Heap guys:

OF Corey Patterson

IF/OF Fernando Tatis

IF Akinori Iwamura

OF Marcus Thames

SP Todd Wellemeyer

SP Jeff Suppan

RP Sergio Mitre

[Quoner]

Questions/comments:

The Rangers payroll is reportedly jumping to the mid-90s and that's before a World Series run. That gives us nearly $40M in wiggle room -- or enough to sign Lee for $25M a year and still work with $15M. The payroll is also likely to continue climbing in the next few years, probably to the $110-120M range. Why so down on the chance to break the bank for Lee?

Chris Young does not need to be in a rotation with Tommy Hunter. Did the playoffs not teach us the need for strikeout guys and not BABIP innings eaters? They are great for regular season, but not against locked in hitters raising their game.

Why do so many guys we have under contract vanish in each of your scenarios? Does CJ overdose if we resign Lee? Do we decline arbitration? Does Mark Lowe die if we resign Frankie? Scheppers could be a good winter/camp away from joining the opening roster as well.

I hope we keep Molina, but this also brings up the idea of crazy player workouts. Davis has been working out as a catcher and Hamilton has said he'd be open to playing 1st to avoid wear and tear. I think that's a year or two away, but Moreland's flexibility as an infielder and outfielder makes it somewhat feasible.

Vlad has a $9M option. If he comes back, it's going to have to be on a discount. Young is ready to DH, but does he get on board with the move? I wanted Inge at 3rd, but could this be another chance for Davis to try to put it together unless we land a big fish at this position?

As for Holland, he was a mixed bag in the postseason, but he had his bright spots and had to have at least proved something to himself on some level. I feel like it's all between the head with him up here and getting him regular work might be what helps him figure it out. At the very least, he, Beltre and others are still prime trade chips if ol' Greinke or Josh Johnson is on the market.

[Censored by Laurie]

Questions/comments:

The Rangers payroll is reportedly jumping to the mid-90s and that's before a World Series run. That gives us nearly $40M in wiggle room -- or enough to sign Lee for $25M a year and still work with $15M. The payroll is also likely to continue climbing in the next few years, probably to the $110-120M range. Why so down on the chance to break the bank for Lee?

Chris Young does not need to be in a rotation with Tommy Hunter. Did the playoffs not teach us the need for strikeout guys and not BABIP innings eaters? They are great for regular season, but not against locked in hitters raising their game.

Why do so many guys we have under contract vanish in each of your scenarios? Does CJ overdose if we resign Lee? Do we decline arbitration? Does Mark Lowe die if we resign Frankie? Scheppers could be a good winter/camp away from joining the opening roster as well.

I hope we keep Molina, but this also brings up the idea of crazy player workouts. Davis has been working out as a catcher and Hamilton has said he'd be open to playing 1st to avoid wear and tear. I think that's a year or two away, but Moreland's flexibility as an infielder and outfielder makes it somewhat feasible.

Vlad has a $9M option. If he comes back, it's going to have to be on a discount. Young is ready to DH, but does he get on board with the move? I wanted Inge at 3rd, but could this be another chance for Davis to try to put it together unless we land a big fish at this position?

As for Holland, he was a mixed bag in the postseason, but he had his bright spots and had to have at least proved something to himself on some level. I feel like it's all between the head with him up here and getting him regular work might be what helps him figure it out. At the very least, he, Beltre and others are still prime trade chips if ol' Greinke or Josh Johnson is on the market.

1. I'm down on the Rangers' chances of re-signing Lee b/c I know what the Yankees are going to bring...I've seen it first hand for years...they can bump up their payroll $50M w/o skipping a heartbeat...especially if it means they can tell their fans the top of their rotation is CC and Lee. Add to that the idea that the Rangers beat the Yankees this year for Lee...I don't see that organization letting their fan base think it happened twice.

2. Young was just a name...not a specific want. How about Ted Lilly? I think if Lee leaves Daniels can get 2 veteran #2 like starters to balance the rotation...one who could be expendable if you need to start Holland at AAA to get his head right.

3. If the Rangers go to arbitration number goes to $8M are the Rangers committed to his contract or can they opt to let him go to FA? I honestly think that if the bank is broken for Lee that those kind of decisions will have to be made.

4. I hadn't heard about Davis as a potential catcher...that's intriguing. I think Bengie is back no matter what.

5. I knew Vlad jumped, didn't realize that much. I don't think you do that again at $9M...Lee or no Lee. There are productive bats available...especially if the Rangers are ready to consider Young or Hamilton at DH

6. Holland is going to need to prove something before now before he could be offered for a Greinke or Johnson. His stock has gone down since his MLB debut and would probably have to be a #2 in an offer including Martin Perez.

[MEANGREENMAN!]

Does CJ overdose if we resign Lee?

What would he OD on? Phiten?

[Army of Dad]

2010 was one hell of a ride and with all of the young talent on the Rangers' roster I think it may be a bit too easy for Rangers' fans to fall into the assumption that playoff baseball will become the norm for the next 5 seasons. However, Major League Baseball is littered with one year wonders...so what questions/moves does Jon Daniels have to answer/make in order to keep this team atop the AL West?

4. Catcher - resign Molina? resign Treanor? Teegarden as back-up? Not much in the FA market...well, save for Joe Mauer...I think keeping Molina is probably the best option.

Mauer signed a long term contract last off season. He will be a Twin for the next several years, if not forever.

[TheColonyEagle]

I hate to be greedy here but KC is looking for prospects. And we're not as young as many believe. (Josh, Nelly, CJ, Cliff, Colby, Mike are all going to be 30+ next year) I think we have a solid 5 year window here where we're going to be a serious contender every year in the AL.

I say go get Greinke. He's available. He's (I believe) 26-27?, pitched 220 innings in his "down" year and still is a top 5 starter in the AL. He's signed for 2 more years I believe. Can you imagine our rotation with Cliff at the #1 and Greinke at #2? His past issues have been mental but he wouldn't have the weight of the whole franchise on him here like he does in KC.

There aren't too many clubs with the amount of prospects we have. I think we're part of only a handful of teams with the ability to give KC what they want.

How does

1) Lee

2) Greinke

3) CJ

4) Colby

5) Hunter/Feldman

Look?

Who do you want to give up? Would KC take Holland, Davis, Teagarden, Perez, other prospects, etc?

Would you offer up Moreland? (I would hate it but...)

OH, and I still think Lee comes back to TX.

Edited November 2, 2010 by TheColonyEagle

[MEANGREENMAN!]

I don't want Greinke for what it would take to get him. Teagarden and Davis are virtually worthless and offering players of the Holland/Beltre/Scheppers/Perez for someone who is not all there in the head is not good. Also people in the area are greatly overrating this farm. It may not even be a top 10 going into 2011.

Edited November 2, 2010 by MEANGREENMAN!

[UNTflyer]

I read that the Rangers signed a new TV deal starting in 2012 that will really bump up revenues. Between that and what is sure to be higher ticket sales next season, why not try to keep Lee and grab another ace?

[Green Mean]

The reality is that Cliff Lee isn't replaceable. And if everyone things he's going to get $150 million I highly doubt it. He is already 32 and probably won't get more than 6 years and 20 million a season. I anticipate the most he will get is around $130 million. Re-signing Lee gives the Franchise credibility. He is just that dominant and good. Is there a risk? Sure there is some but again I say if you try and put a formidable product on the field it will pay for itself. Remember we are a top 5 market with only one MLB team.

If the Rangers want the Yankees and everybody else shit bricks they will re-sign Lee and trade for Greinke. I know it is a complete fantasy but imagine a starting rotation of Lee, Greinke, CJ, Lewis and the 5th guy being Holland perhaps? Wow my sports pants are going nuts just thinking about that possibility. Right now the Rangers are in credibility mode...they are saying the right things but they have to go out and do it. There is no reason why this team cannot support a $150 million payroll when it is all set and done.

I am 75/25 on bringing Vlad back. I think he meant such a whole lot to the lineup and I think he really influenced the other Latin players. With that being the case I wouldn't mind taking up on the option and maybe we will better utilize him during the season like more days off etc. After next year we can get rid of Vlad and make Young our Paul Molitor and keep him the DH.

I know the jury is still out on Moreland but man I really think we have found a full time player for the next 10-12 years in a Rangers uniform. I think that position is Moreland's job to lose. The only way I see someone else playing first base is if management decides to make Hamilton the first baseman and work with him like hell this off season and teach him the position. I love Hamilton in the outfield but if he is going to be a major injury waiting to happen then we need to consider him at first base. He is such a natural that he would probably learn how to dominate that position as well.

For catcher...I am really not opposed to bringing Molina and Treanor back. They have been awesome for this team and I think another year with decent pay and they will both come back. If one or both move on then I think Teagarden should make the roster next year. I think he does have something but all the catchers we had just didn't put it all together but it seemed that Teagarden was starting to figure things out when he came back up in Aug/Sep. Another option is to bring Pudge back...I know he is 38 but he can still play and he can share time with another catcher such as Teagarden, Treanor or Molina and I believe this is his last year of his original 2 year deal he signed with the Nats last off season.

As for Holland...I think the guy has the "It" factor. Even this season how much did he really pitch? I feel that he was getting yanked around for the likes of Harden and Feldman. Young pitchers will go through ups and downs but if you keep on yanking them like that then they will never develop. I think it is critical he is permanent on the starting rotation next season. And guys like Ted Lilly are nice but they are number 3 or 4 starters on teams that are ready to make runs at championships.

I think the bullpen will be very critical to address this off season. Main thing is I think we definitely need to bring back Frankie because his presence was sorely missed and I really see him as a Ranger for a long time. He has great stuff and if he gets healthy...he needs to come back to a 2-3 year deal and our 8th inning guy will be taken care of. I love Scheppers as much as the next guy but lets leave him in the minors and season him even more. I don't want us to rush guys with huge upside only to get screwed in the majors.

[Censored by Laurie]

The reality is that Cliff Lee isn't replaceable. And if everyone things he's going to get $150 million I highly doubt it. He is already 32 and probably won't get more than 6 years and 20 million a season. I anticipate the most he will get is around $130 million. Re-signing Lee gives the Franchise credibility. He is just that dominant and good. Is there a risk? Sure there is some but again I say if you try and put a formidable product on the field it will pay for itself. Remember we are a top 5 market with only one MLB team.

In 2005 Johnny Damon became a free agent after making $8.25M in the final year of his contract with Boston. The Red Sox wanted very much to bring back one of the more popular players in the Boston area and a huge player in the 2004 historical comeback against the Yankees and World Series victory...but they also recognized that Damon was already 32, had some injury issues and his main weapon was his speed...a threat that deteriorates quickly with age. Theo Epstein decided to set a value on Damon and to not let emotion play in to his decision as to whether or not to bring Damon back. They offered Damon 4 years, $40M...with mutual options in the subsequent 2 seasons.

The Yankees offered 4 years, $52M.

Was Damon still a really good player? Yes. Was this move solely a baseball move? Absolutely not.

The Yankees focused on Damon in free agency, yes, to add a high average, high OPS, speedy outfielder to an already potent line-up...but much more so to give a giant middle finger to Boston.

The Yankees have spite money...and considering the circumstance around Lee coming to Texas, they're going to use it. The Rangers stole Lee, at least that is the perception, from the Yanks at the trade deadline...then he goes out and carries the Rangers past Tampa and throws a gem in Yankee Stadium.

This will not just be a baseball decision made by the Yankees. It will be a message. I would love for Lee to stay in Texas (or go to Boston...) but I think the only way it happens is if Lee simply doesn't want to pitch for NY...because they are going to bring the biggest contract offer and I really do not think it is going to be close.

Edited November 3, 2010 by Censored by Laurie

[Green Mean]

In 2005 Johnny Damon became a free agent after making $8.25M in the final year of his contract with Boston. The Red Sox wanted very much to bring back one of the more popular players in the Boston area and a huge player in the 2004 historical comeback against the Yankees and World Series victory...but they also recognized that Damon was already 32, had some injury issues and his main weapon was his speed...a threat that deteriorates quickly with age. Theo Epstein decided to set a value on Damon and to not let emotion play in to his decision as to whether or not to bring Damon back. They offered Damon 4 years, $40M...with mutual options in the subsequent 2 seasons.

The Yankees offered 4 years, $52M.

Was Damon still a really good player? Yes. Was this move solely a baseball move? Absolutely not.

The Yankees focused on Damon in free agency, yes, to add a high average, high OPS, speedy outfielder to an already potent line-up...but much more so to give a giant middle finger to Boston.

The Yankees have spite money...and considering the circumstance around Lee coming to Texas, they're going to use it. The Rangers stole Lee, at least that is the perception, from the Yanks at the trade deadline...then he goes out and carries the Rangers past Tampa and throws a gem in Yankee Stadium.

This will not just be a baseball decision made by the Yankees. It will be a message. I would love for Lee to stay in Texas (or go to Boston...) but I think the only way it happens is if Lee simply doesn't want to pitch for NY...because they are going to bring the biggest contract offer and I really do not think it is going to be close.

You may be right but I don't think the new Steinbrenners are into sending any more messages. If they were anything like Dad then I doubt Cliff Lee would have came to Texas instead of NY. Fortunately for New York they realize that the true core of that thing is aging and aging very quickly. I don't think they will be able to buy championships so to speak because once the core 4 especially have lost everything or retire because George tried that during the 80's and it didn't quite work out. I really think Hal and Hank are really smart and sure they will offer Lee a good contract but I don't think it will be astronomical. In fact after hearing and reading industry guys, Lee may even be lucky to get $120 million mainly because of his age.

I sort of think that this playoffs was a wakeup call for the Yankees in the sense that they need to look at the future and not mortgage their whole future for maybe 2-3 more great years. They have a pretty good farm system right now and the reality is that their dynasty in the 90's came from their farm and they added pieces to that. That is what I think the Rangers have in place to do if they keep the core guys here and those guys turn out to be what they are supposed to be like Elvis, Feliz, maybe holland and the rest of the gems in the minors.