Mathematical Responsibilty Of Coach Dodge

[blackbird3]

Most people would reasonably agree with slight variation that football boils down to 40% offense, 40% defense, and 20% special teams. Now we can also agree that of these 40% for offense and defense that 80% of the value is starters, 20% second string. This is assuming that all positions are equal in value.

We can use these numbers to calculate how many games Coach Dodge should have to win based on the total value lost of his team.

So on offense we have lost:

6 First String: JJ Johnson, Nathan Tune, Conor Gilmartin-Donahue, Micah Mosley, Chris Bynes, Tyler Stradford

7 Second String: Derek Thompson, Nick Leppo, Greg Brown, James Hamilton, Breece Johnson, Riley Dodge, Benny Jones

On defense we have lost:

2 First String: Dewaylon Cook, Steven Ford

3 Second String: Jesse Desoto, Chris Neal, Konockus Sashington

Special Teams: Many of these players played special teams, but we can not determine accurately which of these players played. So worse case scenario none of them were of any value and we will keep the value at 20%.

On to some hardcore math.

So we can break down that the value of each unit(offense, defense, special teams) to be, a(.2) + b(.4) + c(.4) = 1, where 1 is a complete whole team and a = special teams, b = offense and c = defense.

Now we must break up a,b and c into their respective parts. A is 1, because we ass(u)me no loss to special teams. B is broken up into .8 for starters and .2 for second string. Therefore the equation for the total amount of players lost is ((.8*(6/11) + (.2*(7/11))). This comes out to be (.44 + .13) = .57. . x = .57, the number of players lost so 1-.57, or .43 is the value of offense we have left.

b = .43 players left out of 1

C is broken up into .8 for starters and .2 for second string. Therefore the equation for the total amount of players lost is ((.8*(2/11) + (.2*(3/11))). This comes out to be (.15 + .05) = .2. . x = .2, the number of players lost so 1-.2, or .8 is the value of defense we have left.

c = .8 players left out of 1

So now we must apply these numbers to our master equation for the total value of the team. ( a(.2) + b(.4) + c(.4) = 1). So the new equation is, (1*.2) + (.43*.4) + (.8*.4) = Z.

Z = .2 + .172 + .32 = .69

Therefore, assuming none of these players participated in special teams, and that none of the positions are valued different from each other and that the generous numbers given to second team, Coach Dodge should be responsible for winning 69% of the original 7 games expected from him which means 4.83 games, which you round down since you can't win .83 of a game.

My conclusion is that 4 wins would absolutely guarantee Coach Dodge should keep his job considering the circumstances that have arisen.

[CMJ]

Nice breakdown. Can't say I am on board, but I appreciate the time and effort it took.

[UNTflyer]

[forevereagle]

[THOR]

what you say makes perfect sense in a perfect world. unfortunately, injuries and the such are part of the game and rv said that 7 wins is a must. i don't think that rv would quantify the amount of injuries in the situation to present the less than 7 victory mandate.

great work and i get your math, but it isn't feasible in the world of college football.

[TheTastyGreek]

Most people would reasonably agree with slight variation that football boils down to 40% offense, 40% defense, and 20% special teams.

Already, I'm done reading.

[bstnsportsfan3]

there is a reason I'm a sports talk radio major.....I HATE MATH!

[TheTastyGreek]

there is a reason I'm a sports talk radio major.....I HATE MATH!

I love math.

This is timecube.

[Texas Stranger]

Two math geeks walk into a bar. One offers to buy the other a drink. The second turns down the offer, saying that he had some calculus homework to finish up. "Come on, just one for the road" says the first. The other replies "No thanks, I don't drink and derive".

[UNT90]

Most people would reasonably agree with slight variation that football boils down to 40% offense, 40% defense, and 20% special teams. Now we can also agree that of these 40% for offense and defense that 80% of the value is starters, 20% second string. This is assuming that all positions are equal in value.

We can use these numbers to calculate how many games Coach Dodge should have to win based on the total value lost of his team.

So on offense we have lost:

6 First String: JJ Johnson, Nathan Tune, Conor Gilmartin-Donahue, Micah Mosley, Chris Bynes, Tyler Stradford

7 Second String: Derek Thompson, Nick Leppo, Greg Brown, James Hamilton, Breece Johnson, Riley Dodge, Benny Jones

On defense we have lost:

2 First String: Dewaylon Cook, Steven Ford

3 Second String: Jesse Desoto, Chris Neal, Konockus Sashington

Special Teams: Many of these players played special teams, but we can not determine accurately which of these players played. So worse case scenario none of them were of any value and we will keep the value at 20%.

On to some hardcore math.

So we can break down that the value of each unit(offense, defense, special teams) to be, a(.2) + b(.4) + c(.4) = 1, where 1 is a complete whole team and a = special teams, b = offense and c = defense.

Now we must break up a,b and c into their respective parts. A is 1, because we ass(u)me no loss to special teams. B is broken up into .8 for starters and .2 for second string. Therefore the equation for the total amount of players lost is ((.8*(6/11) + (.2*(7/11))). This comes out to be (.44 + .13) = .57. . x = .57, the number of players lost so 1-.57, or .43 is the value of offense we have left.

b = .43 players left out of 1

C is broken up into .8 for starters and .2 for second string. Therefore the equation for the total amount of players lost is ((.8*(2/11) + (.2*(3/11))). This comes out to be (.15 + .05) = .2. . x = .2, the number of players lost so 1-.2, or .8 is the value of defense we have left.

c = .8 players left out of 1

So now we must apply these numbers to our master equation for the total value of the team. ( a(.2) + b(.4) + c(.4) = 1). So the new equation is, (1*.2) + (.43*.4) + (.8*.4) = Z.

Z = .2 + .172 + .32 = .69

Therefore, assuming none of these players participated in special teams, and that none of the positions are valued different from each other and that the generous numbers given to second team, Coach Dodge should be responsible for winning 69% of the original 7 games expected from him which means 4.83 games, which you round down since you can't win .83 of a game.

My conclusion is that 4 wins would absolutely guarantee Coach Dodge should keep his job considering the circumstances that have arisen.

Fair enough.

Now, apply this same formula to last year when Coach Dodge himself said that the team had 5 wins in them.

Also, why would anyone ever round down with a .83 value?

Agenda?

[Denia Park Pedro]

.8 for starters and .2 for second string.

Therefore, assuming none of these players participated in special teams, and that none of the positions are valued different from each other and that the generous numbers given to second team, Coach Dodge should be responsible for winning 69% of the original 7 games expected from him which means 4.83 games, which you round down since you can't win .83 of a game.

Two problems. The assignment of .8 and .2 values is arbitrary. Why not .7 and .3 or .9 and .1? Nitpicky, I know, but math is like that.

Second, shouldn't we, if determining how many games a coach is responsible for winning, consider all games, not just 7? I know that Clemson and K-St were never very likely, but I do remember people saying that if things broke right we had a good chance at both.

Having said all of that, if a coach cannot even meet your meager expectations after several years of trying he needs to get gone as soon as we can get the door open so somebody else can give it a go.

[NT03]

Like the breakdown , but it's flawed with Conor Gilmartin-Donahue & Micah Mosley being listed w/ the starters.

[island eagle]

Like the breakdown , but it's flawed with Conor Gilmartin-Donahue & Micah Mosley being listed w/ the starters.

Yes....according to some accounts we have had 15 starters on both sides of the ball. The biggest flaw in this whole scenario is that special teams stank before the injuries took such a toll and the team made stupid mistakes and penalties before as well. In other words....it didn't look all that promising early on and now the chickens have really come home to roost. If we continue as is with the losses then this program is going to lose a lot of support.

[foutsrouts]

Where does the average number of D1A injuries per team fit into the equation, and shouldn't that number be floating based on games played:blink:?

[EagleGreen]

Where does the average number of D1A injuries per team fit into the equation, and shouldn't that number be floating based on games played:blink:?

I like the explanation based on your simple math and assumptions. No worries. Let's say that if Dodge wins 5 games (I rounded up like any other American would) then he can stay. OK? Now, let's start looking for a new coach in the mean time.

[Primo]

or

[UNTFan23]

or

I think this formula calls for:

[houstonmeangreen]

how bout.....6 is to 3.5 yrs as w 's are to L's = x solve for x x=fired.