North Texas Future In Football

[untjim1995]

With so much laying on the line for the 2011 season and beyond, I started thinking about where we will be in five years, based upon a presumed change at head coach after this season. The scenarios are just so varied, but I wanted to get everyone's thoughts on the future direction of the football program, after this season. See which one seems more likely to you.

1.Scenario One

We hire Dennis Franchione (or someone like him) as the new coach and he immediately wins. This would be interesteing as I believe that he might just stay here for a while, since he has been knocked back down the ladder. Very similar to the Hayden Fry hire/tenure at UNT.

2.) Scenario Two

We hire a Coach Fran type and we still keep losing. This is my absolute worst fear. We pay up for a name coach, who then comes here and does nothing at all. We stay at the bottom of the SBC, thus causing our school's administration to go back to its cheap view of football/athletics.

3.)Scenario Three

We hire an assistant with no head coach experience, who then succeeds greatly as a head coach (think Urban Meyer at Bowling Green). We have a great 2-3 years here, but then that first-time coach moves on and we have to keep the coaching carousel working to keep success here. Boise State has done it, but no one else jumps out at me as being successful steadily in this situation.

4.)Scenario Four

We hire an assistant with no head coaching experience, but he doesn't cost much and we get another Dickey-type hire, where we could have a winning season, but it isn't until about year 5 or so. This basically continues our current view of athletics at UNT.

What do you think the odds are at UNT, based upon all variables that we know of currently, that each scenario plays out? I think that Scenario one has about a 25% chance, Scenario two is at about 25%, Scenario 3 is at about 50%, while scenario 4 is at about 50%, too. Any thoughts?

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

Is Uncle Rico available?

[TheTastyGreek]

What do you think the odds are at UNT, based upon all variables that we know of currently, that each scenario plays out? I think that Scenario one has about a 25% chance, Scenario two is at about 25%, Scenario 3 is at about 50%, while scenario 4 is at about 50%, too. Any thoughts?

I think this is an interesting topic, and I don't mean to derail it. But your probabilities add up to 150%.

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

Um. Tasty...was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Edited October 5, 2010 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

[MeanGreenTexan]

I think this is an interesting topic, and I don't mean to derail it. But your probabilities add up to 150%.

What is this? Trigonometry or something? Go run your shady math on the Hobbit forum.

Back on topic: I think it depends on what happens with coach Dodge. Does he turn it around this year? Conventional wisdom says chances are slim to none. But, there's still a chance. So, I'll hope for that, and if it doesn't happen, I'll be glad to speculate on the other options.

[aztecskin]

I think this is an interesting topic, and I don't mean to derail it. But your probabilities add up to 150%.

Just means it is MORE probable.

[GoMeanGreen1999]

Back on topic: I think it depends on what happens with coach Dodge. Does he turn it around this year?

While we are discussing numbers, what are the odds of this happening?

[UNT90]

While we are discussing numbers, what are the odds of this happening?

[DeepGreen]

untjim1995 I think you should add another scenerio.

5. Hire a sucessful, proven head coach from a successful FCS(D1AA) program that has been at the top for several years.

Edited October 5, 2010 by DeepGreen

[Green P1]

I think this is an interesting topic, and I don't mean to derail it. But your probabilities add up to 150%.

Know how I know you're gay?

[NCMeanGreen]

Dude is on a roll...

[PlummMeanGreen]

With so much laying on the line for the 2011 season and beyond, I started thinking about where we will be in five years, based upon a presumed change at head coach after this season. The scenarios are just so varied, but I wanted to get everyone's thoughts on the future direction of the football program, after this season. See which one seems more likely to you.

1.Scenario One

We hire Dennis Franchione (or someone like him) as the new coach and he immediately wins. This would be interesteing as I believe that he might just stay here for a while, since he has been knocked back down the ladder. Very similar to the Hayden Fry hire/tenure at UNT.

What do you think the odds are at UNT, based upon all variables that we know of currently, that each scenario plays out? I think that Scenario one has about a 25% chance, Scenario two is at about 25%, Scenario 3 is at about 50%, while scenario 4 is at about 50%, too. Any thoughts?

North Texas is going to have an "impact" new stadium and (if TD doesn't make it happen) we are going to need an "impact" name coach.

The left out factor of this is what state and metro area UNT is located.

(1) TCU's got it goin' on as about as good as they ever have even during the modern era of the SWC;

(2) SMU has a milion dollar coach (for now) and will probably go to some bowl game each year and then we have...

(3) CGU (Coaches Graveyard University--the last NCAA D1 HFC's job for any coach we've had in Denton since Jerry Moore.

The new Mean Green Stadium with the Name Coach can help us get over the "CGU" part very quickly IMHO. UNT's "Name Coach" is going to have to probably recruit next Fall's starting Mean Green QB with one who is presently a high school senior this Fall. (We can't do this QB thing to Riley Dodge any longer folks--we don't need him crippled and in a wheelchair with crippling arthritis due to multi breakage of bones by the time he hits age 30).

We all hope for the Hollywood ending and TDodge comes back, but that is probably not likely in light of the worst injured college football team I've seen or ever read about. Sometimes a change is not only good for said school--but for said HFC as well.

Coach Fran? This is still intriguing to me no matter how many of you think he has Aggie and Tide cooties. Yep! He screwed up those last 2 jobs in places you have little room to screw up, but this is where the UNT job may be the perfect fit for this guy because-------HE WANT'S TO PROVE HE STILL HAS THE RIGHT STUFF?

Coach Fran (while at TSU-SM) wanted the UNT HFC's job very bad when Dennis Parker got it on the whim of one of President Hurley's lietenants and no names mentioned since he is a friend.

Fact is IMHO our best shot at UNT is to do a another recycling job. UNT recycled Hayden Fry's career post SMU-firing in November of 1972 and instead of his going into selling insurance Coach Fry is now in the College Football Hall of Fame, ie, mostly based on his Iowa job but where did the Hawkeyes go to get their future Hall of Famer?

GMG!

Edited October 5, 2010 by PlummMeanGreen

[TheTastyGreek]

Know how I know you're gay?

Because I can count?

[TheTastyGreek]

North Texas is going to have an "impact" new stadium and (if TD doesn't make it happen) we are going to need an "impact" name coach.

The left out factor of this is what state and metro area UNT is located.

(1) TCU's got it goin' on as about as good as they ever have even during the modern era of the SWC;

(2) SMU has a milion dollar coach (for now) and will probably go to some bowl game each year and then we have...

(3) CGU (Coaches Graveyard University--the last NCAA D1 HFC's job for any coach we've had in Denton since Jerry Moore.

The new Mean Green Stadium with the Name Coach can help us get over the "CGU" part very quickly IMHO. UNT's "Name Coach" is going to have to probably recruit next Fall's starting Mean Green QB with one who is presently a high school senior this Fall. (We can't do this QB thing to Riley Dodge any longer folks--we don't need him crippled and in a wheelchair with crippling arthritis due to multi breakage of bones by the time he hits age 30).

We all hope for the Hollywood ending and TDodge comes back, but that is probably not likely in light of the worst injured college football team I've seen or ever read about. Sometimes a change is not only good for said school--but for said HFC as well.

Coach Fran? This is still intriguing to me no matter how many of you think he has Aggie and Tide cooties. Yep! He screwed up those last 2 jobs in places you have little room to screw up, but this is where the UNT job may be the perfect fit for this guy because-------HE WANT'S TO PROVE HE STILL HAS THE RIGHT STUFF?

Coach Fran (while at TSU-SM) wanted the UNT HFC's job very bad when Dennis Parker got it on the whim of one of President Hurley's lietenants and no names mentioned since he is a friend.

Fact is IMHO our best shot at UNT is to do a another recycling job. UNT recycled Hayden Fry's career post SMU-firing in November of 1972 and instead of his going into selling insurance Coach Fry is now in the College Football Hall of Fame, ie, mostly based on his Iowa job but where did the Hawkeyes go to get their future Hall of Famer?

GMG!

I don't know that I'd say Fran screwed anything up at Alabama. He went there, got blindsided by NCAA penalties from the previous regime, won anyway, and got the heck out of town when a Texas offer came along that got him out of Alabama's scholarship/bowl/probation hell.

He won immediately with a team that won 3 games the year before he got there, won a bowl his first year (Alabama's first bowl win over anyone since 1996), won 10 games against an SEC schedule and with no bowl due to penalties in his second year.

Seems like he was pretty successful there, in my opinion.

[TheTastyGreek]

Also worthy of note:

Franchione has been a head coach at 8 different stops. New Mexico and Texas A&M are the only places he didn't post a winning record in his FIRST YEAR. At those schools, he only managed to get there in YEAR TWO.

Of the 8 schools, the only one where he didn't post at least one 9+ win season during his tenure was at Texas State. He was only there 2 years and he did post winning records in both.

[Green Dozer]

With so much laying on the line for the 2011 season and beyond, I started thinking about where we will be in five years, based upon a presumed change at head coach after this season. The scenarios are just so varied, but I wanted to get everyone's thoughts on the future direction of the football program, after this season. See which one seems more likely to you.

1.Scenario One

We hire Dennis Franchione (or someone like him) as the new coach and he immediately wins. This would be interesteing as I believe that he might just stay here for a while, since he has been knocked back down the ladder. Very similar to the Hayden Fry hire/tenure at UNT.

2.) Scenario Two

We hire a Coach Fran type and we still keep losing. This is my absolute worst fear. We pay up for a name coach, who then comes here and does nothing at all. We stay at the bottom of the SBC, thus causing our school's administration to go back to its cheap view of football/athletics.

3.)Scenario Three

We hire an assistant with no head coach experience, who then succeeds greatly as a head coach (think Urban Meyer at Bowling Green). We have a great 2-3 years here, but then that first-time coach moves on and we have to keep the coaching carousel working to keep success here. Boise State has done it, but no one else jumps out at me as being successful steadily in this situation.

4.)Scenario Four

We hire an assistant with no head coaching experience, but he doesn't cost much and we get another Dickey-type hire, where we could have a winning season, but it isn't until about year 5 or so. This basically continues our current view of athletics at UNT.

What do you think the odds are at UNT, based upon all variables that we know of currently, that each scenario plays out? I think that Scenario one has about a 25% chance, Scenario two is at about 25%, Scenario 3 is at about 50%, while scenario 4 is at about 50%, too. Any thoughts?

Boise State, and very wisely, promoted from within when Hawkins left. Thus, they had continuity, which I think is what it takes to win year in and year out.

[PlummMeanGreen]

I don't know that I'd say Fran screwed anything up at Alabama. He went there, got blindsided by NCAA penalties from the previous regime, won anyway, and got the heck out of town when a Texas offer came along that got him out of Alabama's scholarship/bowl/probation hell.

He won immediately with a team that won 3 games the year before he got there, won a bowl his first year (Alabama's first bowl win over anyone since 1996), won 10 games against an SEC schedule and with no bowl due to penalties in his second year.

Seems like he was pretty successful there, in my opinion.

Upon further review, you are right, albeit I think what I was referring to with Coach Fran's short stay in Tuscaloosa was:

(1) He knew before he signed on that the Crimson Tide were fixin' to have some bad NCAA problems and...

(2) In spite of this, he told Alabama officials he would stay the course--but he didn't. So I guess he told a little white lie? That decision by Coach Fran does not make his situation a deal-breaker with us if he got an interview with UNT........IMHO; that is, if we have a job opening after this season.

GMG!

Edited October 6, 2010 by PlummMeanGreen

[Green P1]

Because I can count?

Because you did.

[Cr1028]

1.Scenario One

We hire Dennis Franchione (or someone like him) as the new coach and he immediately wins. This would be interesteing as I believe that he might just stay here for a while, since he has been knocked back down the ladder. Very similar to the Hayden Fry hire/tenure at UNT.

2.) Scenario Two

We hire a Coach Fran type and we still keep losing. This is my absolute worst fear. We pay up for a name coach, who then comes here and does nothing at all. We stay at the bottom of the SBC, thus causing our school's administration to go back to its cheap view of football/athletics.

3.)Scenario Three

We hire an assistant with no head coach experience, who then succeeds greatly as a head coach (think Urban Meyer at Bowling Green). We have a great 2-3 years here, but then that first-time coach moves on and we have to keep the coaching carousel working to keep success here. Boise State has done it, but no one else jumps out at me as being successful steadily in this situation.

4.)Scenario Four

We hire an assistant with no head coaching experience, but he doesn't cost much and we get another Dickey-type hire, where we could have a winning season, but it isn't until about year 5 or so. This basically continues our current view of athletics at UNT.

If I were going to bet the house.

1. <5%

2. <5%

3. 40%

4. >50%

[PlummMeanGreen]

Boise State, and very wisely, promoted from within when Hawkins left. Thus, they had continuity, which I think is what it takes to win year in and year out.

That continuity of assistant coaches hiring from within came from a winning Bronco football program by each predeccessor, too, as I recall.

In Peterson's 1'st year at Boise, I remember counting back then that they had had 4 or 5 HFC'ing hires in the space of about 10 or 11 years which I think phenomenal how they kept the thing going with each coach. (The Broncos also stayed in the Top 25 most or all of that time of coaching turnovers, too).

GMG!

Edited October 6, 2010 by PlummMeanGreen

[NT80]

Also worthy of note:

Franchione has been a head coach at 8 different stops. New Mexico and Texas A&M are the only places he didn't post a winning record in his FIRST YEAR. At those schools, he only managed to get there in YEAR TWO.

Of the 8 schools, the only one where he didn't post at least one 9+ win season during his tenure was at Texas State. He was only there 2 years and he did post winning records in both.

Sounds like Fran's the Man, if he's game. Seriously, where is he now?

As for the scenarios, I'll take door #1, hire the former winner and hope he can repeat it. Odds are greater that a previous HC winner can repeat faster than a newbie can learn how to be a HC and win.

[TheTastyGreek]

Sounds like Fran's the Man, if he's game. Seriously, where is he now?

Lost out on a job to Brady Hoke two years ago, lost out on the UNLV job to Bobby Hauck last year.

He's still cashing A&M checks at least through the end of this year.

The UNLV job he went after paid Hauck $350k in base money and an incentive heavy $150k in potential bonuses for a max of $500k with all incentives being met, in case anyone was wondering.

Can we afford that sort of wage for our next coach? Well... My guess is yes, we almost certainly can. Why? Because of what I read in USA Today back when Dodge was hired:

Dodge's contract, which runs until the end of August 2012, would be worth an average of more than $400,000 a year if he meets all incentives, Villarreal says.

So, four years ago, with no student fee and no additional new stadium revenue... We managed to put together a base pay and incentive package that could have paid Dodge more than $400k per year. Now, in 2010, can we afford a contract that pays a maximum of $500k per year to lure in Franchione?

I think we can.

If nothing else, we can schedule another "paycheck game" in basketball. A decent paycheck game in basketball can run from $75-100k. Even a relatively crappy payday for a poor team generally grosses $40-60k.

Let me put it this way... I care for my family. I'm fond of my fiancee. But over the past few years, I've come to realize that I LOVE Johnny Jones and North Texas basketball. My greatest fear (after death and bees) is that we'll lose the man because we can't afford to give him a raise if/when he leads us to another NCAA berth this year. I don't want anything to happen that could potentially derail what that man is building with that program.

But if getting Franchione meant one more Kansas game every year in basketball, I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.

Edited October 6, 2010 by TheTastyGreek

[PlummMeanGreen]

Lost out on a job to Brady Hoke two years ago, lost out on the UNLV job to Bobby Hauck last year.

He's still cashing A&M checks at least through the end of this year.

The UNLV job he went after paid Hauck $350k in base money and an incentive heavy $150k in potential bonuses for a max of $500k with all incentives being met, in case anyone was wondering.

Can we afford that sort of wage for our next coach? Well... My guess is yes, we almost certainly can. Why? Because of what I read in USA Today back when Dodge was hired:

So, four years ago, with no student fee and no additional new stadium revenue... We managed to put together a base pay and incentive package that could have paid Dodge more than $400k per year. Now, in 2010, can we afford a contract that pays a maximum of $500k per year to lure in Franchione?

I think we can.

If nothing else, we can schedule another "paycheck game" in basketball. A decent paycheck game in basketball can run from $75-100k. Even a relatively crappy payday for a poor team generally grosses $40-60k.

Let me put it this way... I care for my family. I'm fond of my fiancee. But over the past few years, I've come to realize that I LOVE Johnny Jones and North Texas basketball. My greatest fear (after death and bees) is that we'll lose the man because we can't afford to give him a raise if/when he leads us to another NCAA berth this year. I don't want anything to happen that could potentially derail what that man is building with that program.

But if getting Franchione meant one more Kansas game every year in basketball, I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.

And TTG hits on the other part of this that also ran past my mind: Coach Fran could probably pay North Texas to coach here because he's so well vested from recent stops. He might take a UNLV type of arrangement at first, though, but later the money will have to be laid out on the table if he takes us to the next level, ie, Top 25? And don't forget, we're talking about a coach with Fran who wanted the North Texas job when our powers that be pulled off yet another "no brainer" hire with Dennis "where is he today" Parker. (Wonder if North Texas ever turned down a job resume' from Knute Rockne in our illustrious football hiring past)?

Seriously, if TDodge doesn't hit his 6 or 7 but if he did, I would be perfectly happy with him pulling off such a miracle and get a chance to have a fresh new "recruiting start" at the new stadium which he was a chief inspiration for UNT to build but...............if we have to hire another, I don't know if Coach Fran is the man or not, but I have had an intrigue with him when all this got started and that was basically after the Rice loss.

Like Deep Green posted and I liberally paraphrase, we "must" be dead on right with this hire==we cannot afford to do what we've been doing forever in Denton in hiring the wrong person again. The new stadium makes the stakes much higher now and aren't we really all glad for that?

I did have a TCU'er very, very recently tell me Coach Fran lied but I'm guessing that was probably one of the many "sports lies" most HFC's or sports types have told once or twice in their careers that we've all been a victim to at one time or another? I mean they got Gary Patterson off Coach Fran's TCU staff so why should it matter for TCU'ers who might be still hacked off with Coach Fran for choosing the, uh, BCS Series bowl guaranteed Crimson Tide over TCU (who has to hope all the stars in the universe are in perfect alignment and, uh, one more thing....has to win "every" game on their schedule to get a BCS bowl)? At any rate, it's not a fair arrangement for TCU or any of the rest of us, quite frankly; but we are a few years from having to worry about all that for now.

Sports Lies? You know em' well...like when an NFL General Manager gives his HFC the dreaded vote of confidence and then you know his man is usually a goner--sometimes by the next week? Like when a college HFC says he wants to stay "forever" at his "dream" job and then an Alabama Crimson Tide-type program comes along and changes his mind? Sports Liar! Sports Liar! Pants On Fire!

Many of us who were around in the 70's loved the great Hayden Fry for those short (but very productive) 6 years he was in Denton, but recently when he said he'd stayed at UNT if his fine teams had only gotten rewarded with bowl games? Well, I don't know of or have ever heard of any coach in NCAA D1 who turns down any Big 10 job to stay at an outpost such as our beloved Denton and the (then) venerable ol' Fouts Field as home field--do you?

It's about brighter lights, larger crowds, more national attention (more money?) and no NCAA D1 HFC will turn that down for long. (You really think Peterson will stay at Boise forever--I don't)? Yes oh yes...the dreaded sports lie alright. It can easily be detected but it will sneak up on you when you've lost all unbiase toward any HFC at your respective alma mater that you emulate; that is, who you think would never pull off such a thing as...........the sports lie.

GMG!

Edited October 6, 2010 by PlummMeanGreen

[untjim1995]

quote name='Cr1028' date='05 October 2010 - 07:31 PM' timestamp='1286325105' post='514881']

If I were going to bet the house.

1. <5%

2. <5%

3. 40%

4. >50%

Edited October 6, 2010 by untjim1995

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

For the record, I don't think June Jones stays at SMU much longer. In fact, after he takes them to another bowl game this year, I think Pac-10 schools with vacancies are going to be ringing him up.

I still say we need a proven program builder. In that regard, I'd put guys like Franchione, Glen Mason, Steve Logan, and Jeff Bowers at the top of the list. Those guys will have ties for good assistants and recruits all over the country.