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There is no guaranteed formula that "x" NIL $ = "y" wins.
Plenty of NIL-aplenty programs had marginal or losing seasons.
Wisconsin 5-7, Mich St. 5-7, UCLA 5-7, Okla St. 3-9, OU 6-7, Kentucky 4-8, etc.
These Brands have a LOT of NIL to spend.
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