So, What Happens Next Year?

GrayEagle · July 1, 2010

I have a feeling that expansion takes off much more next year than it did this current year.

When the Pac-10 went to 12 this year (and was willing to go to 16) I feel as if we will see a glut of 12-team conferences. Somehow, with the Big 10/12, SEC and Pac-12 at 12 teams, and a little less potent ACC also at 12, it may become necessary for an AQ team to be in a 12-team conference.

First, I believe that the Big XII will add two more next year. As long as Texas/Texas A&M/Texas Tech and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State remain together, that conference will no doubt remain an AQ conference. Someone jokingly said that they could add SFA and still retain AQ status and that's only a little far-fetched. While I'd expect the two additions to come from the MWC, I'd expect that it could be from any conference IF they thought that the team would be a player in a couple of years. By player I mean very competitive and potentially draw 50,000 average per game.

The Big East could face extinction as a football conference if they fail to act. The best case scenario for their four teams would be Notre Dame, East Carolina, UCF and Memphis. All are capable of 40,000 averages and of course Notre Dame sells out every game at 80,000. If they can somehow sell the Irish, who are already a member for their other sports, on full membership they will absolutely keep their AQ status.

Those actions would give all six AQ conferences 12 teams each and possibly freeze further expansion by the big boys.

If that happens, I believe that CUSA returns to 12 and the Mountain West also moves to 12. If the two Big XII fill-ins do come from the MWC that would mean five new schools added along with the three from CUSA that must come from the WAC or Sun Belt because no one in the MAC stands out from the rest except maybe Central Michigan. Some very likely candidates are Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Troy, and Temple but none are shoo-ins except Fresno.

If the above happened that would leave 10 teams (excluding Army and Navy) who must band together but they could be scattered from California to Florida and either the WAC or the Sun Belt would have to go.

Even if only part of this scenario happened, North Texas must win and have our best attendance average. If we fail at either we will put the program at great risk.

glick1980 · July 1, 2010

I think you are right on every point except Notre Dame. They aren't going to join a conference for full membership unless it is the Big 10(12). I don't see them associating themselves with the likes of Memphis, ECU, and UCF in any way. Even though they have been down lately, they are still Notre Dame and will not join a conference for full membership unless it is a great conference and for more cash than they get as an independent. I think they will stay independent personally which would mean that the Big East would take one more school opening up another slot in CUSA more than likely...

DeepGreen · July 1, 2010

I think you are right on every point except Notre Dame. They aren't going to join a conference for full membership unless it is the Big 10(12). I don't see them associating themselves with the likes of Memphis, ECU, and UCF in any way. Even though they have been down lately, they are still Notre Dame and will not join a conference for full membership unless it is a great conference and for more cash than they get as an independent. I think they will stay independent personally which would mean that the Big East would take one more school opening up another slot in CUSA more than likely...

That's the way I see Notre Dame.

TIgreen01 · July 1, 2010

I have a feeling that expansion takes off much more next year than it did this current year.
....
Even if only part of this scenario happened, North Texas must win and have our best attendance average. If we fail at either we will put the program at great risk.

The timing for closing down Fouts couldn't have come at a better time. Without that happening, I wouldn't have been shocked to see us struggle mightily to get just 15k avg. this year. During the middle of last season we had a couple of 11k games and it looked like all the losing had finally caught up to us....then Army came and saved the season average. I think the same thing is likely to happen this year....we're going to struggle in the middle of the season but should have great crowds for Rice and Kansas St.

I'm not sold on the winning happening, though.

akriesman · July 1, 2010

I totally agree with this thread. With the new stadium opening up next year, plus the potential for NCAA FB chaos, this upcoming FB season is one of the most important ever at NT.

When it comes to selling your school to a better conference, you need every edge you can get.

SilverEagle · July 1, 2010

The timing for closing down Fouts couldn't have come at a better time. Without that happening, I wouldn't have been shocked to see us struggle mightily to get just 15k avg. this year. During the middle of last season we had a couple of 11k games and it looked like all the losing had finally caught up to us....then Army came and saved the season average. I think the same thing is likely to happen this year....we're going to struggle in the middle of the season but should have great crowds for Rice and Kansas St.

I'm not sold on the winning happening, though.

That's why I would like to see us schedule a service academy every year if possible....mainly Army/Navy.

Arkstfan · July 1, 2010

My guess for what its worth.

Pac-10 is hamstrung. BYU is the best available with Texas off the table and there is no way a conservative religious school gets in the Pac-10. Just won't happen.

Take them off the table and pickings are slim. UNLV, great market little support. New Mexico, good market, little support. Texas was willing when they were going to have ample local teams in their division but TAMU has killed that option unless they have a change of heart.

Pac-10 is probably done.

Big 10 is at a point where two schools make sense. Notre Dame and Texas and unless something happens, neither is heading their way. As we saw a few years ago, Notre Dame got closer to joining ACC than the Big 10 when they approached the ACC out of the blue. That speaks volumes about who Notre Dame views as compatible. Unless the Big 10 is prepared to go on a raid of the ACC and seek out Maryland, UNC, Duke and then add either Clemson or Georgia Tech if Notre Dame doesn't blink, the Big 10 is probably done.

SEC would welcome any combination of UT, TAMU, and OU and then turn and look at VPI, Florida State and Clemson but based on where they are in their TV cycle, they've got no reason to expand unless its a blockbuster.

ACC just signed a new contract. They've got no reason to consider expansion unless raided by the Big 10 or SEC.

Big XII expansion makes no sense unless it enriches the conference. Adding two teams that don't bring a combined $30 million to the table before the title game loses money. BYU can bring that but Sunday play and travel is an issue. Arkansas could but why give up stability for a league that seems to be the opposite of stable? The next best options are Louisville and Cincinnati and I think its a push that they hit the required value. TCU won't bring that and they just ruffle the leaves in the hurricane that is UT and TAMU in the market. Houston? Not a chance.

Big East has a fundamental problem. Start making your list of potential teams and the ones that could play good enough football are schools that would not garner the votes of the basketball schools. DePaul isn't voting to give up a game with UConn to play East Carolina and Marqutte isn't voting to lose a game with Syracuse to play Central Florida. Villanova doesn't want another Philly team in Temple. All of them are bound to be leery of Memphis given that they've vacated two Final Four appearances for rules violations. That means looking at football only schools. Army and Navy bring nice TV value but they aren't going to be very competitive and their enrollment standards basically prevent that from changing. Memphis cannot afford to go football only unless they can get basketball in the Valley and despite the power of the league, you are asking fans to accept a situation where the football and basketball schedules look nothing alike. The Valley would likely be leery between the NCAA scandals and the prospect that they might be short-term if things change in the Big East. Central Florida has made a pretty good hoop investment and accepting A-Sun would likely kill that. East Carolina might accept football only, they likely understand that the odds are against them getting basketball past Duke, UNC, NC State, Wake Forest, and Charlotte. A low cost hoop option might be appealing in return for the chance to get football in the upper tier where there is greater growth potential in North Carolina. Temple would certainly accept and their situation is vastly improved over what it was before. They no longer share a stadium with the Phillies who bumped them more than once because of late season and playoff games and the new administration is putting money in football now. The Big East has a very small inventory of games for TV, so football only might resolve the problem. I think they'd still look at Army and Navy first and after that look at Temple and ECU.

Army of Dad · July 1, 2010

My guess for what its worth.

SEC would welcome any combination of UT, TAMU, and OU and then turn and look at VPI, Florida State and Clemson but based on where they are in their TV cycle, they've got no reason to expand unless its a blockbuster.

As a huge Gator fan I can tell you there is no way FSU ever gets in the SEC. That would make Florida's biggest in-state rival stronger, never mind that rest of the SEC probably doesn't want them either. Not going to happen.

Clemson is a different animal, nobody cares what South Carolina thinks and everyone else would welcome the chance to add another so-so football school to the conference (at least until they adjust to SEC football).

Mean Green 93-98 · July 1, 2010

As a huge Gator fan I can tell you there is no way FSU ever gets in the SEC. That would make Florida's biggest in-state rival stronger, never mind that rest of the SEC probably doesn't want them either. Not going to happen.

The SEC tried to get Florida State back in the 90's, and FSU turned them down.

untjim1995 · July 2, 2010

I have a feeling that expansion takes off much more next year than it did this current year.

When the Pac-10 went to 12 this year (and was willing to go to 16) I feel as if we will see a glut of 12-team conferences. Somehow, with the Big 10/12, SEC and Pac-12 at 12 teams, and a little less potent ACC also at 12, it may become necessary for an AQ team to be in a 12-team conference.

First, I believe that the Big XII will add two more next year. As long as Texas/Texas A&M/Texas Tech and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State remain together, that conference will no doubt remain an AQ conference. Someone jokingly said that they could add SFA and still retain AQ status and that's only a little far-fetched. While I'd expect the two additions to come from the MWC, I'd expect that it could be from any conference IF they thought that the team would be a player in a couple of years. By player I mean very competitive and potentially draw 50,000 average per game.

The Big East could face extinction as a football conference if they fail to act. The best case scenario for their four teams would be Notre Dame, East Carolina, UCF and Memphis. All are capable of 40,000 averages and of course Notre Dame sells out every game at 80,000. If they can somehow sell the Irish, who are already a member for their other sports, on full membership they will absolutely keep their AQ status.

Those actions would give all six AQ conferences 12 teams each and possibly freeze further expansion by the big boys.

If that happens, I believe that CUSA returns to 12 and the Mountain West also moves to 12. If the two Big XII fill-ins do come from the MWC that would mean five new schools added along with the three from CUSA that must come from the WAC or Sun Belt because no one in the MAC stands out from the rest except maybe Central Michigan. Some very likely candidates are Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Troy, and Temple but none are shoo-ins except Fresno.

If the above happened that would leave 10 teams (excluding Army and Navy) who must band together but they could be scattered from California to Florida and either the WAC or the Sun Belt would have to go.

Even if only part of this scenario happened, North Texas must win and have our best attendance average. If we fail at either we will put the program at great risk.

IMO, there are three scenarios that could play out over the course of the next 3 years that will affect UNT:

1.) Best Case: The Big XII takes BYU and Memphis, while the Big East adds ECU and UCF. The two best non-AQ leagues have openings and the MWC then invites Fresno State, Nevada, UTEP, and UH to become a 12 team league. CUSA now has five openings and it has left behind most of its eastern schools. Marshall decides that the MAC makes sense again, so they now have six openings. To fill that void, CUSA invites La Tech, UNT, MTSU, WKU, FAU, and Arkansas State to fill the void. UNT then has a division that is made up of us, SMU, Rice, La Tech, Tulsa, and Tulane and the other division is USM, UAB, MUTS, WKU, FAU, and ASU.

2.)Worst Case: The above scenario occurs, but we don't get the bid for the CUSA spot, due to politics and on-field performance, or some team don't leave CUSA (i.e.,Marshall). However, the other SBC schools mentioned above do leave. Then, we have an SBC that looks like this: FIU, Troy, ULL, ULM, us, South Alabama (who moves up in a few years), UTSA, Texas State, and possibly, NMSU. This is just about conference hell--our newer version of SLC I-AA purgatory. If this happens, then 28k seating for our next stadium is probably TOO BIG for decades to come.

3.)Realistic Case: Everything stays pretty much the way it has been for the last decade. We stay in the Belt with the teams we got because CUSA doesn't lose anyone, nor does any other league. ULM drops down because the price of poker gets too high and the SBC then adds La Tech eventually because they cannot afford the WAC and they cannot afford to be independent, as well as USA and the other schools looking to move up (TSU-SM and UTSA). We get 12 teams and set up East/West divisions. The division for UNT is then: us, UTSA, Texas State, ULL, La Tech, and Arkansas State. Not bad, but not what everyone dreams about for us, either.