Bracketology

[MeanMag]

In a word...yes. Aside from the already mentioned historical advantage that 14 seeds enjoy (I believe by CMJ's numbers they are 3 times more likely to win than a 15), there's the difference in prestige. As sad as it is to the vast majority both nationally and locally we are assumed to be a 16 seed automatically. Getting a 15 looks like blind luck. A 14 might make some sit up and at least ponder the difference between their preconception and reality.

So true Emmitt.

This also sets the stage for UNT and for a lesser extent, the conference, next year. Please remember that we lose 1 starter, 2 guys total. We get back 2 contributors that were hurt almost the entire year in Dom. Johnson, and Kendrick Hogans. Things are looking spectacular for next year.

If we get a 14 this year, people take notice. When we make it back next year, people remember and may give preference.

[e-bone ver2.awesome]

In a word...yes. Aside from the already mentioned historical advantage that 14 seeds enjoy (I believe by CMJ's numbers they are 3 times more likely to win than a 15), there's the difference in prestige. As sad as it is to the vast majority both nationally and locally we are assumed to be a 16 seed automatically. Getting a 15 looks like blind luck. A 14 might make some sit up and at least ponder the difference between their preconception and reality.

Playing #9 vs. #8 makes no difference, but having several hundred fans(or more?) in attendance to help rally the team may actually make a difference. If someone wants to do some more research and compare success rates top ranked 15 seeds vs. lowest ranked 14 seeds(which I think will be the situation we face), as well as success rates for lower ranked teams playing within 200 miles of home, and show me that neither of those are factors in upsets then I may be convinced. But to me it is pretty obvious that you can't compare the lowest ranked 15 seed playing the #5 team in the country to the top ranked 14 seed playing the #12 team in the country. And if proximity doesn't matter then I don't understand why there is controversy every year over a lower ranked team playing closer to home than the higher ranked team they are playing.

Also, having the game close enough to allow more fans to travel builds support for the program for the future. Students and alumni who were able to go to some New Orleans Bowls are probably more inclined to care about the football team and the university now. Fans who may be able to make the 2.5 hour drive to OKC would probably be more inclined to continue to support North Texas basketball going forward, as well.

If the team was given the choice between playing in Buffalo against the #9 team in the country with 5 people wearing green in the stands or in OKC in front of a big contingent(including crazy students) against the #8 team in the country, I think we could all pretty much guess what they would chose.

Edited March 14, 2010 by e-bone ver2.awesome

[island eagle]

While it does look good for next year, replacing Tramiel will not be easy. Hogans, Holman and the new signee will really have to step up. Also, ASU looks to be quite a contender in 2011.

[e-bone ver2.awesome]

If we get a 14 this year, people take notice.

Really? Tell me what teams were the 14 seeds last year off the top of your head. You surely noticed and logged that away, right?

Nationally no one cares about who is a 14 seed vs. a 15 seed. Locally, all I am hearing is about how we are in our 2nd NCAA in 4 years. I'm not hearing about what seed we were in 07 and how much prestige a 14 seed will give us this year.

Edited March 14, 2010 by e-bone ver2.awesome

[CMJ]

They didn't start "ranking" the seeds within lines until acouple of years ago, so no such samples would really be large enough for anything. All I know is you have 15% chance of winning against a 3rd seed and a 4% against a 2.

Edited March 14, 2010 by CMJ

[e-bone ver2.awesome]

They didn't start "ranking" the seeds within lines until acouple of years ago, so no such samples would really be large enough for anything. All I know is you have 15% chance of winning against a 3rd seed and a 4% against a 2.

And if you go only by that then you are ignoring huge factors such as fan support, travel, match ups, etc... and that makes absolutely no sense to me.

[MeanMag]

Really? Tell me what teams were the 14 seeds last year off the top of your head. You surely noticed and logged that away, right?

Nationally no one cares about who is a 14 seed vs. a 15 seed. Locally, all I am hearing is about how we are in our 2nd NCAA in 4 years. I'm not hearing about what seed we were in 07 and how much prestige a 14 seed will give us this year.

I see your point. I can't tell you who was 14 last year, but I can tell you that I knew SFA made the tourney. But then, again, you can't tell me it wouldn't help out in conference prestige and seeding for next year. I am really hoping for OKC, but just so I can go watch them, not because it helps us win anymore. Non-invested fans will always cheer for the underdog, and UNT is a very easy team to like the way they are playing right now and the style of ball they play.

[CMJ]

I'll try and to the research for the 14s when I get some more time(I'm at work right now)

And if you go only by that then you are ignoring huge factors such as fan support, travel, match ups, etc... and that makes absolutely no sense to me.

This is based on info I've been able to glean.

Richmond(VA) over Syracuse probably took place in College Park Maryland. Probably a tons of Orangemen fans there. A decent turnout of Richmond fans likely

Santa Clara(Silicon Valley CA) over Arizona took place in Salt Lake City Utah. A long way for both fanbases, but AZ is known as a good traveling school.

Coppin State(Baltimore Maryland) over South Carolina took place in Winson Salem NC. Alot closer for the Gamecocks.

Hampton(VA) over Iowa State probably took place in Boise Idaho

I would venture to say all but maybe Hampton were massively outnumbered by the opposition fans. And Hampton probably wasn't just because ISU wouldn't have traveled well either

Edited March 14, 2010 by CMJ

[UNTflyer]

I'm shocked that our fans would rather face a #2 seed if it means they can go watch the game in OKC than have the Mean Green face a #3 seed in a far away city.

Our best shot at a win is to get a matchup with Purdue, a team that is hurting and scored just 11 points in the first half yesterday. That means probably a 14-seed in order to draw the Boilermakers.

I know we all want to go watch this game, but the bigger priority is a win. We need to draw a team that we can beat, and a 15 seed means we will probably get West Virginia or Ohio State. We don't want those guys.

[TheTastyGreek]

We have 20 years of history to look at. Fifteen seeds have a four percent chance of winning. Fourteens have a 15% chance. So a little over once every two seasons a 14 wins in the 1st round. Fifteen seeds win once every 5 years on average.

Seems obvious. Better to be a 14 in Alaska than a 15 in Dallas.

It's actually a little better than once every two years (15% is higher than 1/8, or 12.5%) for 14 seeds.

It's actually a little worse than once every six years (4% is less than 1/24, or 4.17%) for 15 seeds.

[NT03]

I'm shocked that our fans would rather face a #2 seed if it means they can go watch the game in OKC than have the Mean Green face a #3 seed in a far away city.

Our best shot at a win is to get a matchup with Purdue, a team that is hurting and scored just 11 points in the first half yesterday. That means probably a 14-seed in order to draw the Boilermakers.

I know we all want to go watch this game, but the bigger priority is a win. We need to draw a team that we can beat, and a 15 seed means we will probably get West Virginia or Ohio State. We don't want those guys.

If it's Purdue we are talking about , then yes I agree with you. I wouldn't care if they sent us to Japan on that one. But , if we are talking about playing a Villanova vs a Ohio State I'd just assume play the higher seed if it meant playing in OKC. We will be big underdogs vs 80% of the field , including Purdue

Who knows , say we land in OKC and can get a big crowd on national t.v. That could help lead us to future considerations when it comes to a NIT birth or a Bowl bid.

Edited March 14, 2010 by NT03

[CMJ]

It's actually a little better than once every two years (15% is higher than 1/8, or 12.5%) for 14 seeds.

It's actually a little worse than once every six years (4% is less than 1/24, or 4.17%) for 15 seeds.

Yeah, I was just doing rough figures in my head, shoulda fixed it this morning when I realized(which I did)

[TheTastyGreek]

So, respectfully...

Can I count on seeing pictures or reading in-person game reports from all the people saying that they want us to get a 15 seed and play in OKC or New Orleans?

[MeanMag]

So, respectfully...

Can I count on seeing pictures or reading in-person game reports from all the people saying that they want us to get a 15 seed and play in OKC or New Orleans?

OKC, yes. New Orleans - not so much. I don't know how many people would make that trip on a thursday. OKC is a little more do-able. 2 hr drive.

If we get the 15 I want OKC. If we get a 14 I will take that over the 15 any day.

[NT03]

So, respectfully...

Can I count on seeing pictures or reading in-person game reports from all the people saying that they want us to get a 15 seed and play in OKC or New Orleans?

OKC , maybe

NO , probably not

[Green P1]

So, respectfully...

Can I count on seeing pictures or reading in-person game reports from all the people saying that they want us to get a 15 seed and play in OKC or New Orleans?

Boom Roasted.

[NT03]

Rivals has us as a 15 , # 58 overall

rivals.com

I guess being 20-14 & 7 - 9 in the MAC is 1 slot better than being the SunBelt champions ?

Edited March 14, 2010 by NT03

[Green P1]

Rivals has us as a 15 , # 58 overall

rivals.com

[MeanGreen61]

Both ESPN and CBS Sportsline's latest bracketology have us in Milwaukee vs Ohio State.

ESPN

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

CBSSportsline

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/13055215?tag=coverlist_active;coverlist_footer

RealTimeRPI's latest is now up and shows us in Jacksonville vs Perdue

http://realtimerpi.com/bracketology/bracketology_Men.html

Edited March 14, 2010 by MeanGreen61

[UNTflyer]

Apparently a 19-17 Houston team who lost to Tulane (8-22), San Diego (11-21), and SMU (14-17) is better than a 24-8 UNT team.

[MeanMag]

Doesn't it make you wonder what kind of respect we'd have gotten if the Sun Belt had normal tiebreaker rules?

[Censored by Laurie]

Doesn't it make you wonder what kind of respect we'd have gotten if the Sun Belt had normal tiebreaker rules?

Would not have made an ounce of difference

[NT03]

Apparently a 19-17 Houston team who lost to Tulane (8-22), San Diego (11-21), and SMU (14-17) is better than a 24-8 UNT team.

Looks like the blown call by the refs when UofH def wKu may cost us a 14 seed

[e-bone ver2.awesome]

So, respectfully...

Can I count on seeing pictures or reading in-person game reports from all the people saying that they want us to get a 15 seed and play in OKC or New Orleans?

Sure, as long as I can count on those who want a 14 seed regardless of factors such as match ups, travel and fan support to provide the same from Buffalo, NY, Milwaukee, WI or where ever you want the team to play.

I want our guys to have the best chance to win. If that means playing the #8 team in the country rather than the #9 team in the country and the guys only have to travel to OKC and will have a good crowd backing them, then that is fine with me. But if some of yall feel that playing a team that is ranked 1 spot lower and having our guys travel half way across the country with no fan support will give them a better chance, then that is your opinion and you are welcome to it. But think about it from their perspective first and what will give them the most confidence. Because it doesn't matter who we will play in the first round, if our guys don't come out and play over their heads then it doesn't matter anyway. I want them to have the best chance of doing that.

[TheTastyGreek]

Sure, as long as I can count on those who want a 14 seed regardless of factors such as match ups, travel and fan support to provide the same from Buffalo, NY, Milwaukee, WI or where ever you want the team to play.

I want our guys to have the best chance to win. If that means playing the #8 team in the country rather than the #9 team in the country and the guys only have to travel to OKC and will have a good crowd backing them, then that is fine with me. But if some of yall feel that playing a team that is ranked 1 spot lower and having our guys travel half way across the country with no fan support will give them a better chance, then that is your opinion and you are welcome to it. But think about it from their perspective first and what will give them the most confidence. Because it doesn't matter who we will play in the first round, if our guys don't come out and play over their heads then it doesn't matter anyway. I want them to have the best chance of doing that.

The best chance to win, by a factor of 4, is to be a 14 seed. CMJ pointed out how little a role "fan support" played in any of the 15 over 2 upsets.

If I remember correctly from the link provided yesterday or the day before, the cheapest ticket for any session anywhere, was $66.

Meanwhile, people could have bought season tickets for $90.

I just don't see a huge mass of fans spending $66 or more so they can drive to Oklahoma City on a Thursday/Friday afternoon.

Even if they do... What are you really expecting as far as a North Texas turnout? 500 people? 1000? 1500?

The Ford Center seats more than 18,000. If we more than doubled our average home attendance... We'd fill less than a third of the place.

The best chance to win a game is to play as a 14 seed.