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MeanGreen61

By MeanGreen61
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TheTastyGreek Collaborator

TheTastyGreek

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I've seen SHSU ahead of us in just about every bracket prediction out there. I don't quite understand that either.

No, I mean that Montana won't get a higher seed than SHSU.

SHSU has a better tournament resume than we do, and we need to see them upset in their tournament to improve our shot at a 14 seed.

SHSU beat a sub .500 Auburn team, and their SEC schedule is helping SHSU's RPI. They also lost to Kentucky, which is pulling them up more than losing to A&M or OSU is pulling us up.

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MeanGreenTexan Grand Master

MeanGreenTexan

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No, I mean that Montana won't get a higher seed than SHSU.

SHSU has a better tournament resume than we do, and we need to see them upset in their tournament to improve our shot at a 14 seed.

SHSU beat a sub .500 Auburn team, and their SEC schedule is helping SHSU's RPI. They also lost to Kentucky, which is pulling them up more than losing to A&M or OSU is pulling us up.

Ah. Gotcha. I hope they lose, but if they don't, will the selection committee just look at the help that their RPI gives them, or might they consider us over them even though we have a lower RPI?

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TheTastyGreek Collaborator

TheTastyGreek

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The Bearkkats also played Kentucky pretty tough, so they get that whole quality loss thing too.

They do have 4 non-D1 wins on their resume, though. Their best case scenario is 25-7, with only 21 D1 victories.

I don't see us getting a higher seed than they do... But their record is deceptive, and that first D1 game of the season against Kentucky is really what's propping their RPI up so high.

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Censored by Laurie Veteran

Censored by Laurie

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Or SHSU.

This is an odd prediction...

I don't think it is odd.

Sam Houston Resume -

Current RPI - 80 (will drop)

SOS - 205 (will drop)

Conference RPI Rank - 26

Conference SOS Rank - 27

Last 10 - 8-2 (assuming SLC Championship)

Record vs. D1 - 20-7 (see above)

North Texas Resume -

Current RPI - 98 (should actually go up even with a SELA loss)

SOS - 269 (see above)

Conference RPI Rank - 22

Conference SOS Rank - 21

Last 10 - 10-0

Record vs. D1 - 22-8

If SHST beats SELA (RPI 197) and then either SFA (162) or TAMCC (177), their RPI will drop...while just playing SHST will bump up SELA slightly, which may bump us up a spot or two before the year is said and done. Our RPI and SOS should end up comparable.

From there the Sun Belt is a clearly superior conference based on RPI and SOS...our last 10 is better...and our record vs. D1 opponents is better.

Add in our conference's success in the dance the past 2 seasons, I think we're fine for a 14...but lets go ahead and cheer against SHST and UCSB just to make sure

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TheTastyGreek Collaborator

TheTastyGreek

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Ah. Gotcha. I hope they lose, but if they don't, will the selection committee just look at the help that their RPI gives them, or might they consider us over them even though we have a lower RPI?

One thing that might work in our favor is that their "best win" (per RPI rankings) is over Oral Roberts (RPI 124). Second best is over Auburn (140).

We have two wins over Troy (RPI 109) and the one over Western Kentucky (131). Other than name recognition for a pretty bad Auburn team, they don't really have any win that makes them look significantly better than us. And as CMJ has pointed out (and the committee has proven on a yearly basis)... It isn't just RPI, though RPI is a good tool to help filter things out.

They dropped 2 of their last 5 regular season games, against UTSA and Texas State. That's supposed to be off the table as a point of comparison, but under the old system, we'd have a leg up on them there.

Still... I don't think we'll get favored over SHSU, so it's still important that they (or UC Santa Barbara, or ideally both) lose their tournament.

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TheTastyGreek Collaborator

TheTastyGreek

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Sunday

Deez nuts.

Seriously... I picked up on most of this stuff from conversations with you and CMJ a few years back, so I'll defer to your opinion about who wins the coin flip between us and SHSU.

Still, the conference RPI would also tend to give Montana an edge over us, considering similar RPIs and their better SOS.

Whatever measure anyone is using... It's still a good but not certain chance that we'll get that 14 seed. Upsets = good, especially UC-SB and SHSU. Also, root for A&M and OSU in the Big 12 tournament. No upsets means a reasonable but by no means certain shot at that 14 spot.

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