Bracketology Update - #15 Seed

chrisfisher · March 11, 2010

Dang! Sam Houston pulled it out.

chrisfisher · March 11, 2010

Robert Morris about to win.

TheTastyGreek · March 11, 2010

Robert Morris about to win.

This is very good.

chrisfisher · March 11, 2010

They have a 4 point lead with 7 seconds left... all but over.

chrisfisher · March 11, 2010

Robert Morris wins it!!!

UNT90 · March 11, 2010

Don't agree.

Saying that a 14 is as likely as a 16 means that there's no chance of a 14 whatsoever.

All we need is a better resume than 5 other auto-qualifiers to avoid a 16 seed, and we've already got that in the bag.

SWAC Champion - no better than Jackson State (RPI of 191, 19-11 going into SWAC tourney with a 2-10 OOC record and one of those wins coming against a non-D1 opponent)
Big South Champion - Winthrop (RPI of 159, 19-13 final record)
Atlantic Sun Champion - East Tennessee State (RPI of 123, 20-14 final record)

Boston (137, 19-12) plays Vermont (129, 24-9) for the America East bid. With one game left (and poor OOC opponents for Vermont, which didn't even manage to lose to teams as good as OSU or A&M that can still help our RPI before selection Sunday), neither is likely to even get close to a double digit RPI. Either way, they both have lower RPI, more losses (and worse losses), and they don't have the opportunity to build a better resume than the one we already have.

In the Patriot League, the only teams left are Lehigh (21-10, RPI 160) and Lafayette (19-12, RPI 211). Neither will get a better seed than us.

That's five right there, none of whom will be seeded higher than us. So the floor is a 15. If you think there's any chance we get a 16, you have to believe that one or more of those teams is going to get a better seed than us.

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To get a 14 seed, we need to do better than at least 4 other teams. It's still very possible.

One is the Northeast tournament winner. It'll either be Quinnipac or Robert Morris (it's in progress right now, 1 point game on ESPN2)

If Morgan State loses the MEAC tournament (still two games left for them), the next highest RPI team is Delaware State at 222. At the moment, Morgan State already has 9 losses against a worse Strength of Schedule than ours, and their 103 RPI doesn't include a game today against 300+ RPI N.C. A&T, or the other two games they'll have to play vs. teams with RPI's between 222 and 291 (or worse, if there are any upsets). Even if Morgan State DOES win their tournament, we may have a better RPI, SOS, and fewer losses than they do. That's two.

CBL has made reference to how much we need an upset in the Southland tournament. If Sam Houston State loses there, then the next highest RPI team is SFA at 162. That's assuming SHSU gets past their first round game against Nichols State (still a one possession game with less than 3:30 minutes remaining as I type this). That would be three.

If we get a mild upset in a conference like the Big West (no UC Santa Barbara, please), that would make four.

It's not impossible, or even really that improbable. I'd say we've got at least a 25-33% chance of seeing ourselves land a 14. And that may be a pessimistic estimate.

Now, could you please run down the scenerios that would allow us to grab a 13 or 12 seed, please? And I'm gonna need that by 8:30 tonight.

Seriously, I do wonder if the conference's (read: WKU's) success in the tourney the last couple of years will give us the boost we need to hit at least a 14. I would think reputation plays a little role in this crap shoot.

Edited March 11, 2010 by UNT90

TheTastyGreek · March 11, 2010

Now, could you please run down the scenerios that would allow us to grab a 13 or 12 seed, please? And I'm gonna need that by 8:30 tonight.

Barring some sort of dramatic shift in selection criteria... It's zero percent.

I'll start a new thread as a replacement for the "Who to root for" one that outlines who we're likely to out-seed (for lack of a better phrase) and what our prospects are for getting to that 14 seed.

CMJ · March 11, 2010

Remember, the RPI's are useful for us as a guide - but they aren't necessarily how the Committee seeds teams. Back in 2007 I believe going strictly by RPI's we would've been the highest rated 16 seed -- instead we made it onto the 15 line.

UNT90 · March 11, 2010

I just wonder if conference reputation and past SBC NCAA tournament performance may give us a boost.

For personal reasons, I want the 14 seed in OK City, because I will BE THERE.

Censored by Laurie · March 11, 2010

I just wonder if conference reputation and past SBC NCAA tournament performance may give us a boost.

For personal reasons, I want the 14 seed in OK City, because I will BE THERE.

You're making up a game. OKC has a 15 seed game...the 14s are 2 in Providence, San Jose and Jacksonville

gangrene · March 11, 2010

From the looks of this, we better hope for a 14. The closest place for a 15 seed would be Florida.

Are the locations already set for the seeds, or is this a guesstimate, just like the picks?

You're making up a game. OKC has a 15 seed game...the 14s are 2 in Providence, San Jose and Jacksonville

From what I've read, which seeds will play at which locations will be determined by the selection committee and will not be announced until next Sunday.

UNTflyer · March 11, 2010

From what I've read, which seeds will play at which locations will be determined by the selection committee and will not be announced until next Sunday.

Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible. A team moved out of its natural area will be placed in the next closest region to the extent possible.

A team may be moved one seed line from its true seed line (e.g., from a No. 13 seed to a No. 12 seed) when it is placed in the bracket if necessary to meet the principles.

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They will try to get us into Oklahoma City or New Orleans.

SUMG · March 11, 2010

I was told by a Sun Belt official that Wright Waters thinks we'll be sent to NO. Not sure if he has inside info...or if that's just a hunch on his part.

UNTFan23 · March 11, 2010

I was told by a Sun Belt official that Wright Waters thinks we'll be sent to NO. Not sure if he has inside info...or if that's just a hunch on his part.

NO makes it tough for some to make it a day trip for the tournament whereas OKC would allow the most fans an opportunity to make the trip.

gangrene · March 11, 2010

Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible. A team moved out of its natural area will be placed in the next closest region to the extent possible.

A team may be moved one seed line from its true seed line (e.g., from a No. 13 seed to a No. 12 seed) when it is placed in the bracket if necessary to meet the principles.

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They will try to get us into Oklahoma City or New Orleans.

Right, but the question is more about which regions get which seeds rather than what seed a specific team gets. I can't find anything that states a predetermined seeding list for each location. This particular question is in regards to whether OKC gets a #15 vs #2 game or a #14 vs #3 game. ESPN's bracketology and bracketography.com show the differing perspectives. I've watched the live selection show every year it's been televised and this particular issue has never been discussed (or at least not that I can recall). From what I can tell, it looks like the selection committee has full discretion to determine which seeds play at which location. If you've ever bought tickets to any of the regionals, you might have noticed there is no mention of which seeds you may potentially be watching.

NT03 · March 11, 2010

Just going by history there are only about 3 things we know for sure :

1) The NCAA will not put us in OKC

2 ) If there are 3 teams the committee deems as #14 seeds and 5 teams as #13 seeds , we will lose the tiebreaker and be deemed a # 14 seed

3) DJ will be denied a medical redshirt

All About UNT · March 11, 2010

Maybe we could have both? Bracketography

I do not wish for this setup in that K-State has only lost 80% of it's games by a three pointer or so...

CMJ · March 11, 2010

Well, whoever we get is gonna be a real tough draw. We just have to hope we catch a powerful team on a slightly off night.

UNTflyer · March 11, 2010

I was told by a Sun Belt official that Wright Waters thinks we'll be sent to NO. Not sure if he has inside info...or if that's just a hunch on his part.

I'd prefer Okalhoma City, but if we don't get that New Orleans will be a damn fine road trip.

UNTflyer · March 11, 2010

Well, whoever we get is gonna be a real tough draw. We just have to hope we catch a powerful team on a slightly off night.

True we will not get a great seeding, even if we get a 14 it will be a tough game in which we will be the big underdog. Let's just keep building that resume and when we win the tournament next year we may get a 13 or a 12.