Bracketology Update - #15 Seed

gangrene · March 10, 2010

First of all, I have very little confidence in the accuracy of the ESPN (or anyone else's) ability to predict the seeds of all 65 teams. Furthermore, I believe we'll be higher than a 15 seed based on the "hot team factor" (a factor the selection committee admittedly considers). Still, it's interesting to see that ESPN projects us as the #15 seed in the West (New Orleans) bracket and if, and that's a big IF, we were to upset the #2 seed, we'd have a potential 2nd round matchup against formerly #1 ranked Texas. (Of course, the way Texas has been playing lately, there's no assurance they'll even win their first round game.

But....I'd actually like our chances against the Longhorns - would that ever be a huge victory the Mean Green?

Eagle1855 · March 10, 2010

First of all, I have very little confidence in the accuracy of the ESPN (or anyone else's) ability to predict the seeds of all 65 teams. Furthermore, I believe we'll be higher than a 15 seed based on the "hot team factor" (a factor the selection committee admittedly considers). Still, it's interesting to see that ESPN projects us as the #15 seed in the West (New Orleans) bracket and if, and that's a big IF, we were to upset the #2 seed, we'd have a potential 2nd round matchup against formerly #1 ranked Texas. (Of course, the way Texas has been playing lately, there's no assurance they'll even win their first round game.

But....I'd actually like our chances against the Longhorns - would that ever be a huge victory the Mean Green?

I'm sure one Rick Barnes remembers a certain NT point guard fairly well. There are a lot of things that have to happen to make this go, but yeah, it would be a hell of a lot of fun if this all fell together like that.

Would really prefer that 15 seed in OKC against K-State.

Edited March 10, 2010 by Eagle1855

meangreenacct · March 10, 2010

If we are going to be a 15 seed, I would love to play Purdue. They have had a great year, but are without the services of their best or at least second best player Robbie Hummel. E'twaun Moore and Jajuan Johnson would definitely be tough, but out of the 2 seeds, they would definitely be my first choice.

e-bone ver2.awesome · March 10, 2010

Honestly, I would take playing in OKC over a 14 seed. I think we could have a pretty good crowd.

Censored by Laurie · March 10, 2010

Honestly, I would take playing in OKC over a 14 seed. I think we could have a pretty good crowd.

You're crazy.

FirefightnRick · March 10, 2010

I've really been craving some benets, so I'm hoping for New Orleans.

Rick

GoMeanGreen1999 · March 10, 2010

Honestly, I would take playing in OKC over a 14 seed. I think we could have a pretty good crowd.

Not me. Give me the 14 seed over the 15 in OK City.

ColoradoEagle · March 10, 2010

I don't see us being below a #13 seed. I'm hoping for #12.

gangrene · March 10, 2010

Honestly, I would take playing in OKC over a 14 seed. I think we could have a pretty good crowd.

Maybe we could have both? Bracketography

MeanGreenTexan · March 10, 2010

I don't see us being below a #13 seed. I'm hoping for #12.

Put down the crack pipe! As awesome as a 12 seed would be, I don't think that's going to happen.

my sarcasm meter may be broken?

GoMeanGreen1999 · March 10, 2010

I don't see us being below a #13 seed. I'm hoping for #12.

I am hopefull of a 14 seed, but I don't see much higher than that. I would shocked if they gave us a 12 or 13. What was the highest WKU had?

ColoradoEagle · March 10, 2010

I am hopefull of a 14 seed, but I don't see much higher than that. I would shocked if they gave us a 12 or 13. What was the highest WKU had?

They had a #12 seed last year and the year before, and South Alabama had a #10 at-large seed 2 years ago. It's possible, of course, that we could end up a #15 seed. However, I think our conference placement the last two years and us winning 11 straight gets us a #13, or hopefully, #12 seed.

The biggest knock against us is going to be those two losses to Ark. State.

Edited March 10, 2010 by ColoradoEagle

glick1980 · March 10, 2010

The biggest knock against us is going to be those two losses to Ark. State.

I thought that FIU loss was the worst loss of the year by far.....

MeanGreenTexan · March 10, 2010

The biggest knock against us is going to be those two losses to Ark. State.

I think the lack of any quality OOC wins will hurt the most. If UTA/Jackson St. or any other Southland/SWAC school we beat this year can make the tourney, that will help. Otherwise, there's nothing for the selection committee to go on except that we're really good against other SBC schools and Southland/SWAC pushovers.

ColoradoEagle · March 10, 2010

I thought that FIU loss was the worst loss of the year by far.....

RPI wise, yeah, that stung. Teams can have off days or hot days from time to time. What looks ugly if you look at the schedule the way the committee will be is that we lost twice to a non-contender with one of them bordering on blowout territory.

Edited March 10, 2010 by ColoradoEagle

foutsrouts · March 10, 2010

I'll take the 14th seed even if we have to play it in Hong Kong. Based purely on RPI's, I guess we're gonna have to root for someone besides Sam to win the Southland, and for a pretty good Montana team to beat Weber State in the Big Sky Championship game tonight. I would still love us to slip into the 14th seed and get matched up with a #3 seed New Mexico. I saw them against TCU and was not impressed.

MeanGreenTexan · March 10, 2010

I'll take the 14th seed even if we have to play it in Hong Kong. Based purely on RPI's, I guess we're gonna have to root for someone besides Sam to win the Southland, and for a pretty good Montana team to beat Weber State in the Big Sky Championship game tonight. I would still love us to slip into the 14th seed and get matched up with a #3 seed New Mexico. I saw them against TCU and was not impressed.

Yeah. I think New Mexico is riding high on Steve Alford. They're good, but they are beatable as a 3 seed.

mrsgreengoblin · March 10, 2010

I saw St. Marys win over Gonzaga...I would not want to play them in OKC or anywhere else.

TheTastyGreek · March 10, 2010

There's no way we go higher than a 14 seed.

I wish it were possible, but 14 is our ceiling this year. 15 is still likelier than not.

UNT90 · March 11, 2010

Maybe we could have both? Bracketography

From the looks of this, we better hope for a 14. The closest place for a 15 seed would be Florida.

Are the locations already set for the seeds, or is this a guesstimate, just like the picks?

GreenStreet · March 11, 2010

There's no way we go higher than a 14 seed.

I wish it were possible, but 14 is our ceiling this year. 15 is still likelier than not.

As long as were not a 16. I want best case to win first round.

FirefightnRick · March 11, 2010

I think the lack of any quality OOC wins will hurt the most. If UTA/Jackson St. or any other Southland/SWAC school we beat this year can make the tourney, that will help. Otherwise, there's nothing for the selection committee to go on except that we're really good against other SBC schools and Southland/SWAC pushovers.

Forget UTA. They lost out to SFA this afternoon. I don't see anyone beating Sam other than Texas State, who beat them last week.

Rick

Green to the Bone · March 11, 2010

I think 15 is reasonable, given everything. 16 seems unlikely. Anything higher than 15 would be equally unlikely, a boon from Heaven.

At 15, a win would be difficult, but not impossible. This team has gotten better as the season has progressed, to the point where we could beat a good many bigger conference teams. Clearly, anybody in the top half of the Big XII would have our number, but compare us to the bottom half and we come out ahead (I'd schedule Tech right now if I could). Give us 14 and there's a shot at something good.

TheTastyGreek · March 11, 2010

I think 15 is reasonable, given everything. 16 seems unlikely. Anything higher than 15 would be equally unlikely, a boon from Heaven.

At 15, a win would be difficult, but not impossible. This team has gotten better as the season has progressed, to the point where we could beat a good many bigger conference teams. Clearly, anybody in the top half of the Big XII would have our number, but compare us to the bottom half and we come out ahead (I'd schedule Tech right now if I could). Give us 14 and there's a shot at something good.

Don't agree.

Saying that a 14 is as likely as a 16 means that there's no chance of a 14 whatsoever.

All we need is a better resume than 5 other auto-qualifiers to avoid a 16 seed, and we've already got that in the bag.

SWAC Champion - no better than Jackson State (RPI of 191, 19-11 going into SWAC tourney with a 2-10 OOC record and one of those wins coming against a non-D1 opponent)

Big South Champion - Winthrop (RPI of 159, 19-13 final record)

Atlantic Sun Champion - East Tennessee State (RPI of 123, 20-14 final record)

Boston (137, 19-12) plays Vermont (129, 24-9) for the America East bid. With one game left (and poor OOC opponents for Vermont, which didn't even manage to lose to teams as good as OSU or A&M that can still help our RPI before selection Sunday), neither is likely to even get close to a double digit RPI. Either way, they both have lower RPI, more losses (and worse losses), and they don't have the opportunity to build a better resume than the one we already have.

In the Patriot League, the only teams left are Lehigh (21-10, RPI 160) and Lafayette (19-12, RPI 211). Neither will get a better seed than us.

That's five right there, none of whom will be seeded higher than us. So the floor is a 15. If you think there's any chance we get a 16, you have to believe that one or more of those teams is going to get a better seed than us.

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To get a 14 seed, we need to do better than at least 4 other teams. It's still very possible.

One is the Northeast tournament winner. It'll either be Quinnipac or Robert Morris (it's in progress right now, 1 point game on ESPN2)

If Morgan State loses the MEAC tournament (still two games left for them), the next highest RPI team is Delaware State at 222. At the moment, Morgan State already has 9 losses against a worse Strength of Schedule than ours, and their 103 RPI doesn't include a game today against 300+ RPI N.C. A&T, or the other two games they'll have to play vs. teams with RPI's between 222 and 291 (or worse, if there are any upsets). Even if Morgan State DOES win their tournament, we may have a better RPI, SOS, and fewer losses than they do. That's two.

CBL has made reference to how much we need an upset in the Southland tournament. If Sam Houston State loses there, then the next highest RPI team is SFA at 162. That's assuming SHSU gets past their first round game against Nichols State (still a one possession game with less than 3:30 minutes remaining as I type this). That would be three.

If we get a mild upset in a conference like the Big West (no UC Santa Barbara, please), that would make four.

It's not impossible, or even really that improbable. I'd say we've got at least a 25-33% chance of seeing ourselves land a 14. And that may be a pessimistic estimate.