Recruiting: On The Rise/on The Decline

UNT Mean Green · February 22, 2010

Here's the link, and the actual article.

On Monday, Football Outsiders analyzed the value of recruiting. Today, with recruits in-house, they look at trends over time.

Now that the ink from the signatures of (most of) the Class of 2010 has dried, what can we derive from this year's class rankings? Who has seen the biggest upgrade (or downgrade) in their overall talent level?

On The Up And Up

These squads have seen their recruiting talent improve the most since 2005-06.

Rank Team ESPN Rivals

1. Oregon 22 13

2. Utah NR 32

3. West Virginia NR 19

4. Baylor NR 39

5. Houston NR 45

6. BYU NR 40

7. Missouri NR 21

8. Stanford 18 27

9. Washington 20 28

10. Georgia Tech NR 43

To determine this, we must compare a team's incoming talent to its outgoing talent; 4-5 recruiting averages both correlate at similar levels to team success, and since a majority of players departing after the 2009 season came from the recruiting classes of 2005 and 2006, we will combine each team's 2010 haul to their averages from the 2005 and 2006 recruiting classes. (Once again, all data for this exercise comes from Rivals.com because all FBS teams are assigned grades/ratings.)

Since most of the top-ranked recruiting classes went to teams who have always recruited well, the teams who have seen the biggest upgrades are not necessarily the ones at the top. In the top chart to the right, you can see the ten teams who have most improved their overall talent level as compared to the 2005 and 2006 recruiting classes.

These teams have taken strong steps forward in terms of talent, though experience could still be an issue. As mentioned earlier this week, experience matters more at the non-AQ conference level, but it still does matter to some degree at the major conference level.

Slipping and sliding

These squads have seen their recruiting rankings decline the most since 2005-06.

Rank Team ESPN Rivals

1. Florida State 6 10

2. Michigan 14 20

3. Ohio State 16 26

4. Miami (Fla.) 13 24

5. Nebraska NR 23

6. Virginia NR 67

7. Arizona NR 36

8. Wisconsin 18 86

9. Georgia 12 16

10. Oklahoma 5 7

Being that recruiting is a zero-sum game, if some teams have improved their talent levels as it pertains to recruiting, others have likely slipped.

And since college football's power structure changes so little, a lot of the names on the list to the left still managed strong classes in 2010 -- just not as strong as those from a few years ago. Here are the top ten teams according to recruiting talent lost:

Recruiting is an accurate predictor of success, but there is obviously no perfect predictor. Every year, teams both overachieve and underachieve compared to the "talent" level they supposedly possess, and some teams do one or the other rather consistently.

With that in mind, let's look at those who have done the most and least with their talent at hand. The top ten overachievers for the last two seasons (2008-09) compared to recruiting rankings can be found in the next chart. (and as with Monday's column, on-field achievement is measured by the Football Outsiders measure, F/+, a combination of FO measures FEI and S&P+).

Overachieving

These squads do the most with the least.

.Rank Team

1. TCU Horned Frogs

2. Boise State Broncos

3. Cincinnati Bearcats

4. Florida Gators

5. Navy Midshipmen

6. Air Force Falcons

7. Alabama Crimson Tide

8. Penn State Nittany Lions

9. Texas Longhorns

10. Connecticut Huskies

Some of these names are predictable. It doesn't take strong data analysis to realize that Boise State and TCU have performed at a level much higher than their perceived talent.

The same probably goes for service academies and teams like Connecticut, who has not had a class grade higher than a C in ESPN's recruiting ratings in the five years of class data available at ESPN.com, yet has seen three straight winning seasons and four in six years.

Some of the names, however, are unexpected. Despite a long series of strong classes, Florida, Alabama, Penn State and Texas have still managed to overachieve as compared to expectations -- which says something about both the coaching staffs on hand (it is hard to come up with a list of coaches more respected than Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Joe Paterno, and Mack Brown), and the level of performance these teams (especially the Gators, Tide and Longhorns) have achieved the past two seasons.

Of course, there are also underachievers. Here are the teams who have struggled the most to achieve at the level their recruiting rankings suggested for them:

Underachieving

These squads have been unable to live up to their recruiting results.

.Rank Team

1. Washington State Cougars

2. Washington Huskies

3. Texas A&M Aggies

4. San Diego State Aztecs

5. Michigan Wolverines

6. Kansas State Wildcats

7. UCLA Bruins

8. Colorado Buffaloes

9. New Mexico State Aggies

10. North Texas Mean Green

Washington State has not recently graded high in the realm of recruiting, but they make the top of the underachiever list due to their historically poor level of recent play. Meanwhile, quite a few teams with reputations for disappointment show up on the list as well, particularly Texas A&M, Michigan and Colorado.

As a whole, certain conferences have managed to exceed recruiting expectations with their performance on the field. The Mountain West has done quite well, with TCU, Air Force, Utah and BYU all vastly overachieving. Powered by steady performances from Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh and South Florida, the Big East has also surpassed its perceived talent levels.

Meanwhile, the Pac-10 has been the biggest recent underachiever in the last two seasons. Wazzu and Washington are powerful anchors, but UCLA, the Arizona State Sun Devils and the California Golden Bears have also struggled to keep up. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt conference has inexplicably also underachieved; despite failing to register any major recruiting hauls, six of the conference's nine teams have failed to live up to their average recruiting rankings. Only Troy has overachieved, while Middle Tennessee and Florida Atlantic have basically broken even.

Edited February 22, 2010 by UNT Mean Green

GreenStreet · February 22, 2010

Losing one game in the season will cost a school a recruit or talent. To say that big name teams are slipping is simply not true. It just means another team out performed them durning the year. But for the out performing team to never slip as the article does not suggest is simply impossible.

Having said that its great to see that maybe soon an SEC team will not be playing for the Natl. Champ. Lets switch it up a bit.

FirefightnRick · February 22, 2010

These squads do the most with the least.
.Rank Team
1. TCU Horned Frogs
2. Boise State Broncos
3. Cincinnati Bearcats
4. Florida Gators
5. Navy Midshipmen
6. Air Force Falcons
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
8. Penn State Nittany Lions
9. Texas Longhorns
10. Connecticut Huskies

You gotta be kidding me? When has tU ever gone without anything?

Rick

UNT Mean Green · February 22, 2010

You gotta be kidding me? When has tU ever gone without anything?

Rick

Great point Rick. I do believe they are basing that information off of the players who were actually playing on the field for Texas. Not necessarily all of those high profile recruits that fizzle out. The Colt McCoy's (2/3 star), Blake Gideon (2 star who has started every game of his career at Safety), and others. Those type of guys. Not the Dan Buckners of the world who are 4 star recruits and don't pan out; which as we know, Texas has plenty of those.

VideoEagle · February 22, 2010

You gotta be kidding me? When has tU ever gone without anything?

Rick

Or Florida, or Alabama or Penn State? All of those schools get so many top recruits that the under rated players who break through must be great players.

GrayEagle · February 22, 2010

Texas, Alabama, Penn State and Florida are always in the Top 10 in recruiting so if they finish there how is that overachieving?

At the other end of the spectrum it's been pointed out that North Texas has improved in talent with little results. That's an established fact but I hope that this year it begins to correct itself.

Edited February 22, 2010 by GrayEagle

Mean Green 93-98 · February 22, 2010

Or Florida, or Alabama or Penn State? All of those schools get so many top recruits that the under rated players who break through must be great players.

Texas, Alabama, Penn State and Florida are always in the Top 10 in recruiting so if they finish there how is that overachieving?

Penn State is not a perennial top 10 recruiter. Penn State's recruiting rank, per Rivals:

2010 - 12th

2009 - 24th

2008 - 43rd

2007 - 24th

2006 - 6th

2005 - 25th

Yes, they had a great class in 2006 and a very good one this year; but those aren't typical for Penn State. In that same timeframe they finished seasons with the #3, 24, 8, and 9 AP ranking. Only one time did they finish out of AP's top 25. That's achieving more than recruiting results alone would suggest.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Mean Green 93-98