Vito Blog: The Door Is Open For Unt Now !

MeanGreen61 · February 19, 2010

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/

CMJ · February 19, 2010

I'm just waiting for Tasty's in depth breakdown. This is starting to really get exciting tho. We still need some help, but things are almost in our control.

akriesman · February 19, 2010

"UNT is aiming for the NCAA Tournament, but winning the overall league title would assure the Mean Green at least an NIT bid."

Is this true ? Since when did the Sun Belt regular season champ get an automatic NIT bid ?

An NCAA bid would be great publicity. But, NT would actually have a chance to make some noise in the NIT.

CMJ · February 19, 2010

"UNT is aiming for the NCAA Tournament, but winning the overall league title would assure the Mean Green at least an NIT bid."

Is this true ? Since when did the Sun Belt regular season champ get an automatic NIT bid ?

An NCAA bid would be great publicity. But, NT would actually have a chance to make some noise in the NIT.

Starting about 3-5 years ago, NIT automatically takes any regular season champion that does not win their league tournament and make the NCAA field. We've discussed it here in the past.

Edited February 19, 2010 by CMJ

NT03 · February 19, 2010

"UNT is aiming for the NCAA Tournament, but winning the overall league title would assure the Mean Green at least an NIT bid."

Is this true ? Since when did the Sun Belt regular season champ get an automatic NIT bid ?

An NCAA bid would be great publicity. But, NT would actually have a chance to make some noise in the NIT.

The NIT takes all regular season conference champs that don't make it to the BIG DANCE.

I would be very happy with a NIT bid if we don't win the tournament

akriesman · February 19, 2010

Thanks guys. I don't follow this board as religously as the FB board....unfortunately.

TheTastyGreek · February 19, 2010

I'm just waiting for Tasty's in depth breakdown. This is starting to really get exciting tho. We still need some help, but things are almost in our control.

I've been effectively gone from the board for about 3 days, and I only slept an hour and a half last night... This won't be a long recap.

Here's the basics: We needed two losses by both MTSU and ASU to open the door for the NIT (if we can win out). Half of what we needed happened already, ahead of the schedule I dared to hope for.

No matter what happens, tonight's action guarantees us (assuming we can win out) the 3rd seed and a 1st round SBC Tournament bye.

FAU still plays Troy. One of those teams must lose the game and fall behind us.

FAU still plays MTSU as the tail end of MTSU's Florida road trip, a pair of road games which has led to at least one loss for almost every team that took it this season. Either MTSU or FAU will lose this game and fall behind us.

Troy still plays Arkansas State. One of those teams must lose and fall behind us.

Even if Arkansas State beats Troy, they have to play the resurgent Hilltoppers. They already lost to WKU a week ago, and the Toppers have only gotten hotter since then.

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Based on what happened tonight, the worst thing that can happen for us is MTSU and ASU winning out. That would ensure Troy gets at least 6 losses (through losing to ASU) and FAU also has at least 6 losses (through losing to MTSU). In that scenario, MTSU wins the East, ASU wins the West by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker, and we're the 3rd seed.

If we win out, that's the worst that can happen.

Let me put it another way... To keep pace with us, anyone else in the league MUST win out, unless we lose a game to either one of the two worst teams in our conference (UALR, winless on the road vs. SBC opponents, or UNO, winless in road SBC games until beating ULM tonight), or lose to ULL at home, a team that's only won one SBC road game (also against ULM).

I don't mean to jinx anything, but us winning out is not at all impossible, or arguably even improbable.

So, everyone else must do the same to keep tied with us. FAU and Middle can't both win out, because they play each other. And ASU and Troy can't both win out, because they play each other. If Troy wins out, they'll win the East and we'll be the 1 seed. If ASU wins out, they win the West and 3rd is our locked-in seed.

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It's tough to explain this all without seeming like I'm talking in circles. If you're a North Texas fan, here's the easiest way to approach the rest of the season:

Root for Troy to win out.

If Troy finishes 13-5, ASU must fall behind us and MTSU would, at best, lose a tiebreaker for the East crown.

That would put us atop the West, Troy atop the East, and us 1st overall thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

There are many other potential ways for it to happen, many of which are very plausible. Lots of ways for Middle and Arkansas State to lose tough games.

But the easiest way to see it happen is to just root for Troy. As long as we don't lose, Troy's success guarantees our success.

MeanGreenTexan · February 19, 2010

I think now the most important thing is for the guys to take it one game at a time, and not look past UALR. This is where JJ earns his keep. Regulators, mount up!

GreenMachine · February 19, 2010

I've been effectively gone from the board for about 3 days, and I only slept an hour and a half last night... This won't be a long recap.

Here's the basics: We needed two losses by both MTSU and ASU to open the door for the NIT (if we can win out). Half of what we needed happened already, ahead of the schedule I dared to hope for.

No matter what happens, tonight's action guarantees us (assuming we can win out) the 3rd seed and a 1st round SBC Tournament bye.

FAU still plays Troy. One of those teams must lose the game and fall behind us.

FAU still plays MTSU as the tail end of MTSU's Florida road trip, a pair of road games which has led to at least one loss for almost every team that took it this season. Either MTSU or FAU will lose this game and fall behind us.

Troy still plays Arkansas State. One of those teams must lose and fall behind us.

Even if Arkansas State beats Troy, they have to play the resurgent Hilltoppers. They already lost to WKU a week ago, and the Toppers have only gotten hotter since then.

----------

Based on what happened tonight, the worst thing that can happen for us is MTSU and ASU winning out. That would ensure Troy gets at least 6 losses (through losing to ASU) and FAU also has at least 6 losses (through losing to MTSU). In that scenario, MTSU wins the East, ASU wins the West by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker, and we're the 3rd seed.

If we win out, that's the worst that can happen.

Let me put it another way... To keep pace with us, anyone else in the league MUST win out, unless we lose a game to either one of the two worst teams in our conference (UALR, winless on the road vs. SBC opponents, or UNO, winless in road SBC games until beating ULM tonight), or lose to ULL at home, a team that's only won one SBC road game (also against ULM).

I don't mean to jinx anything, but us winning out is not at all impossible, or arguably even improbable.

So, everyone else must do the same to keep tied with us. FAU and Middle can't both win out, because they play each other. And ASU and Troy can't both win out, because they play each other. If Troy wins out, they'll win the East and we'll be the 1 seed. If ASU wins out, they win the West and 3rd is our locked-in seed.

----------

It's tough to explain this all without seeming like I'm talking in circles. If you're a North Texas fan, here's the easiest way to approach the rest of the season:

Root for Troy to win out.

If Troy finishes 13-5, ASU must fall behind us and MTSU would, at best, lose a tiebreaker for the East crown.

That would put us atop the West, Troy atop the East, and us 1st overall thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

There are many other potential ways for it to happen, many of which are very plausible. Lots of ways for Middle and Arkansas State to lose tough games.

But the easiest way to see it happen is to just root for Troy. As long as we don't lose, Troy's success guarantees our success.