Why I Feel This Team Is Struggling

Censored by Laurie · December 29, 2009

While I still feel the lack of consistant point guard play is the largest factor in this team's recent struggles...and while I don't want to discount the injury to Eric Tramiel...there are two glaring statistics that to me a significantly telling as to why we're muttering quick prayers at the end of a game with a bad SWAC team.

Over the course of JJ's tenure...and especially in the successful past few seasons...this team has solidified an identity around two key stats: rebounding and bench production.

First to rebounding. Coming into tonight UNT was fourth in conference with 37.2 rpg...not bad, though that number will dip with just 23 tonight...UNT finished 2nd in conference last season with basically the same average (37.3), however prior to last season UNT led the SBC in rebounding 5 straight seasons, all more than a rebound per game higher than this year's production.

Even more telling though, UNT has not won a rebounding battle in a game since the Univ. of the Southwest...throw that out and it goes back 2 more games to the OK. State game. UNT won the rebounding battle in its first 3 games...and is since 0-8 in games against D-1 opponents. Including Cameron and Uof SW, UNT is just 4-8 in the offensive rebounding catagory.

Bench production: UNT is 7-5 in the battle of the benches. One might say thats not bad considerring the loses of McCoy and Dennis...however they went 4-0 to start the season, averaging better than 10 points more per game than their opponent...since they're 3-5 (again including Uof SW) and until tonight's 24-11 win, had lost 4 straight on the bench, without cracking double figures in any of those 4 games and losing by just shy of 18 bench points per game.

These two stats have been the calling card of Johnny Jones led teams...and they've been the most frusterating areas for me to watch us be outplayed. Jacob Holman is averaging just 3rpg and has only 2 games with over 5 boards...he is the key frontcourt reserve whose minutes will continue to increase, he has to increase his rebounding effort and improve his positioning. More minutes for Shorter/Spencer couldn't hurt either.

And just two more sidenotes:

We heard at the start of the season that there would be an increased commitment to defense, yet through 12 games this team has allowed 45% or better field goal shooting 5 times, 3 times at 50% or better. Thats not going to cut it.

Set a rotation. Someone out of the rotation has to earn a spot, someone out of the starting line-up has to earn a spot...in practice. This team should only be using more than 9 players in case of fouls, injury or piss-poor play...and things have been ugly, but they're not piss-poor yet.

CMJ · December 29, 2009

Good call on the rebounding differental. That was something we usually hung out hat on --- even against schools that were bigger than us. It's been fairly surprising to me that we're getting beat so bad on the glass right now. I can't believe we lost the rebounding edge tonight, I really can't. Not even George had that many.

foutsrouts · December 29, 2009

Yeah, I've seen less games than I normally do this year (4), but our boarding and interior defense have not been very pretty at all this year. Good shooting 3 point teams are going to kill us if we don't get better on the inside, because that will open them up even more down low.

chrisfisher · December 29, 2009

what is it about our man-to-man defense that isn't lock down??? I can't figure it out. When you watch the game, the guys are often hustling their butts off chasing the other players in the 1:1 scheme.... but the stats always tell a different story... Another thing - I recall when we played Texas A&M, their announcers wondered aloud as to why make no defensive adjustments, noting that our post could not handle their post (forgot his name) one-on-one and there was no helpside defense or defensive scheme changes... they basically observed we have 1 defensive style and were befuddled by our lack of adjustment.... can someone with technical knowledge of defensive comment on these factors? I'd like a coach level explanation of this so I can better understand it...

Edited December 29, 2009 by chrisfisher

Censored by Laurie · December 29, 2009

what is it about our man-to-man defense that isn't lock down??? I can't figure it out. When you watch the game, the guys are often hustling their butts off chasing the other players in the 1:1 scheme.... but the stats always tell a different story... Another thing - I recall when we played Texas A&M, their announcers wondered aloud as to why make no defensive adjustments, noting that our post could not handle their post (forgot his name) one-on-one and there was no helpside defense or defensive scheme changes... they basically observed we have 1 defensive style and were befuddled by our lack of adjustment.... can someone with technical knowledge of defensive comment on these factors? I'd like a coach level explanation of this so I can better understand it...

You kinda answered your own question.

Winning loose balls is about hustle...good defense is about positioning and communication. The number of uncontested finishes by Texas Southern tells me this team doesn't communicate well on defense.

In the A&M game, the problem with doubling down on Davis is that you'll leave Sloan, Harris and/or Holmes open on the perimeter where all three shoot +40% from 3. I do agree that JJ is at times too stubborn about sticking to vanilla man defense, especially typically without any kind of backcourt pressure...if you're gonna play 10 or 11 guys a night at least make sure they all get a good workout in. I was happy to see zone more last night...especially considerring the Tigers shot a smokin 8% from 3.

greenminer · December 29, 2009

My question is, how should we address the rebounding?

Pen Yan Fan · December 29, 2009

Look at the W-L record of Jones since he has been at UNT. Take away the wins over Div III and NAIA schools and his record is below .500 It seems like the program has become stagnant almost like winning 20 games is a goal instead of doing something in the post season.

greenminer · December 29, 2009

Look at the W-L record of Jones since he has been at UNT. Take away the wins over Div III and NAIA schools and his record is below .500 It seems like the program has become stagnant almost like winning 20 games is a goal instead of doing something in the post season.

An old chicken-egg argument.

/Bill Snyder'd

CMJ · December 29, 2009

Look at the W-L record of Jones since he has been at UNT. Take away the wins over Div III and NAIA schools and his record is below .500 It seems like the program has become stagnant almost like winning 20 games is a goal instead of doing something in the post season.

WTF - we're consistently doing more in the SBC tournament(which is the post season) than we ever did in the past. Before the '06-07 season JJ had one win in 5 years in the SBC tourney. Since we've yet to go out in the first round posting a 6-2 mark over the last three years. All time JJ's record in the SBC tournament is only 8-7, but considering it was 1-5 not too long ago, I'd say we're on an upward trajectory.

If you want to discount the D3 and NAIA wins, that's fine - but by the same measure we've dramatically increased win totals by 5+ a season the last few years compared to early in JJ's career here(and we played those sorts of schools even when we had losing records), so the reason for our winning more games in this stretch is not those sorts of games. We've tended to have two or so a season ever since JJ's first year in Denton - and we'll probably continue to do so in the future.

Quoner · December 29, 2009

WTF - we're consistently doing more in the SBC tournament(which is the post season) than we ever did in the past. Before the '06-07 season JJ had one win in 5 years in the SBC tourney. Since we've yet to go out in the first round posting a 6-2 mark over the last three years. All time JJ's record in the SBC tournament is only 8-7, but considering it was 1-5 not too long ago, I'd say we're on an upward trajectory.
If you want to discount the D3 and NAIA wins, that's fine - but by the same measure we've dramatically increased win totals by 5+ a season the last few years compared to early in JJ's career here(and we played those sorts of schools even when we had losing records), so the reason for our winning more games in this stretch is not those sorts of games. We've tended to have two or so a season ever since JJ's first year in Denton - and we'll probably continue to do so in the future.

We'll have plenty of time to downplay JJ's legacy and fight with each other after he leaves for a better job in the next few years.

aztecskin · December 29, 2009

We'll have plenty of time to downplay JJ's legacy and fight with each other after he leaves for a better job in the next few years.

Promise?

UNT90 · December 29, 2009

We'll have plenty of time to downplay JJ's legacy and fight with each other after he leaves for a better job in the next few years.

Won't happen without post season success. And that means winning a game in the NCAA tourney. I like what JJ has done, but am frustrated by watching undisciplined play, lack of cohesiveness on the offensive end, 15 turnover games, bad free-throw shoooting (except for last year), and losses to teams to which we have no business losing. These are milti-year problems. I love his recruiting and the defense and rebounding that his teams play (this year excluded). While the football program has one of the worst stadiums in FBS, the basketball program has a facility of which any Big 12 member would be proud.

JJ is a long way away from a step up to a bigger program. He will need success in the NCAA tourney, most likely in back to back years, to move to the next level.

BleedGreen · December 29, 2009

Okay, I give in. We have to give either Spencer or Knox minutes to see who can step up. One of them must. Last night's game was the best chance to try them for more minutes. Eric is obviously not well and not just his reinjured wrist. He is in bad shape. George and Jacob can not carry the load by themselves. Someone is going to have to step up for good bench minutes. I am not confident in either Ben Knox or Cameron Spencer. I'd rather have Kedrick Hogans. But, no choice now. My bet is on Spencer, if I had to make one.

calvin · December 29, 2009

It always amazes me that people get on here and gripe about the b-ball program and JJ. All you have to do is get a media guide and look at how dismal this program was and figure out that we are in good shape. Gonzaga is probably the only mid major that is a powerhouse year in and year out, every other top mid major has its ups and downs. We have had 3 straight 20 win seasons and I think we only had 2 or 3 in the whole history of the program. And go back and look at those 20 win seasons and they were filled with teams like West Texas A&M and ACU and programs like that.

With saying that, I am disappointed at how the season has gone so far. I think having Dom out has totally changed this season. If you go back and look at the last 10 or 12 games of last year with the starting line-up of Dom, JW, TT, ET, and George we were playing really well and we had a lot of double digits wins and we went blow for blow with WKU who was a buzzer beater away from being in the sweet 16. Hopefully we can find a way to get going and tigthen up our defense and attack more on offense.

BleedGreen · December 29, 2009

Let it be known that I am a big time Johnny Jones fan and dread the day he leaves. I appreciate the man and what he has done for this program.

Keith7 · December 29, 2009

Look at the W-L record of Jones since he has been at UNT. Take away the wins over Div III and NAIA schools and his record is below .500

Is that true? I need to see proof

untjim1995 · December 29, 2009

Won't happen without post season success. And that means winning a game in the NCAA tourney. I like what JJ has done, but am frustrated by watching undisciplined play, lack of cohesiveness on the offensive end, 15 turnover games, bad free-throw shoooting (except for last year), and losses to teams to which we have no business losing. These are milti-year problems. I love his recruiting and the defense and rebounding that his teams play (this year excluded). While the football program has one of the worst stadiums in FBS, the basketball program has a facility of which any Big 12 member would be proud.
JJ is a long way away from a step up to a bigger program. He will need success in the NCAA tourney, most likely in back to back years, to move to the next level.

I disagree with this big-time. If JJ gets back to another NCAA tournament, he won't need to win a game to get consideration for a move up. Heck, most of the time we would be a high double-digit seed, so you play a big-time team usually in the first round. In reality, I think another school will look at JJ and see what he has built over the years at UNT with a great facility, but with absolutely pitiful attendance and will gladly offer him a contract ith the thought being that he can build a program from scratch and with more support and $$, he could be a great coach for their school for a long time.

greenminer · December 29, 2009

No coach is perfect.

I can't believe the nitpick I read in this thread.

Green Mean · December 29, 2009

Johnny Jones should be the face of UNT athletics and basketball has shown that it should absolutely be the face of the University. Just my opinion.

Greendylan · December 30, 2009

Right now I feel like this team is playing at the level of an average to slightly above average Sun Belt team. Part of this is due to injury, but overall it just seems like the new players have not yet meshed with the returning starters. However, there are flashes of rebounding dominance, focused defense, and organized offense; these just aren't happening consistently. I do believe this team has the talent and coaching to still win the conference, but at some point the player combinations will have to gel. I think this is possible. If it wasn't, the team would not be 8-4 despite clearly struggling at times.

UNT90 · December 30, 2009

I disagree with this big-time. If JJ gets back to another NCAA tournament, he won't need to win a game to get consideration for a move up. Heck, most of the time we would be a high double-digit seed, so you play a big-time team usually in the first round. In reality, I think another school will look at JJ and see what he has built over the years at UNT with a great facility, but with absolutely pitiful attendance and will gladly offer him a contract ith the thought being that he can build a program from scratch and with more support and $$, he could be a great coach for their school for a long time.

The pitiful attendance is exactly what the school will look at, and that will not get them excited about JJ.

I know times are hard right now for UNT sports and it's sacrilege to question the Basketball team because, right now, they are the shining light. But, is this really all you want out of the Basketball program? No conference titles and one conference tournament championship and one NCAA trip, without a victory, in 9 years? The facility excuse does not apply to the basketball program. Neither does the weak conference excuse, as WKU has managed to go to the NCAA tourney the past 2 years and win 3 games. The Sun Belt has always been an above average basketball conference. I have not been to every arena in the Sun Belt, but would wager that we have the best.

Are these really your only expectations? To barely win 20 games while playing a creme puff OCC schedule? No at large bid to the NCAA and NIT 2 of the three 20 win seasons?

I know it's not the trend around here, but I expect more. I think the students expect more, or they would be there in greater numbers. Ditto for the Denton community.

If JJ was going to get an offer, it would have come after the NCAA appearance. The next one won't come until he goes, and has success in, another NCAA tourney.

I like JJ, but I'm not satisfied with what has been accomplished the last three years, and frankly think we had the personnel to do better.

CMJ · December 30, 2009

The pitiful attendance is exactly what the school will look at, and that will not get them excited about JJ.
I know times are hard right now for UNT sports and it's sacrilege to question the Basketball team because, right now, they are the shining light. But, is this really all you want out of the Basketball program? No conference titles and one conference tournament championship and one NCAA trip, without a victory, in 9 years? The facility excuse does not apply to the basketball program. Neither does the weak conference excuse, as WKU has managed to go to the NCAA tourney the past 2 years and win 3 games. The Sun Belt has always been an above average basketball conference. I have not been to every arena in the Sun Belt, but would wager that we have the best.
Are these really your only expectations? To barely win 20 games while playing a creme puff OCC schedule? No at large bid to the NCAA and NIT 2 of the three 20 win seasons?
I know it's not the trend around here, but I expect more. I think the students expect more, or they would be there in greater numbers. Ditto for the Denton community.
If JJ was going to get an offer, it would have come after the NCAA appearance. The next one won't come until he goes, and has success in, another NCAA tourney.
I like JJ, but I'm not satisfied with what has been accomplished the last three years, and frankly think we had the personnel to do better.

Tasty and I had a talk about this awhile ago. JJ could very well leave with a few more years of similar success. But not to a "Big 6" league. There are many leagues ahead of the Belt in Basketball that could swipe him up without some NCAA Sweet 16 type of run. Heck, even Oklahoma State rolled the dice on a guy that only had NIT success(granted it WAS an NIT Championship game run). I don't think UMass was even drawing that well when Travis Ford was there. But anyways, I could see some school in the MVC or CAA take a look at JJ if he has a few more years of this kind of success. And don't kid yourself, they'd be able to pay more than us.

As far as the facility thing goes, the SuperPit is arguably the best, but it's not an obvious call. WKU for example has an excellent arena.

Edited December 30, 2009 by CMJ

Greendylan · December 30, 2009

The pitiful attendance is exactly what the school will look at, and that will not get them excited about JJ.
I know times are hard right now for UNT sports and it's sacrilege to question the Basketball team because, right now, they are the shining light. But, is this really all you want out of the Basketball program? No conference titles and one conference tournament championship and one NCAA trip, without a victory, in 9 years? The facility excuse does not apply to the basketball program. Neither does the weak conference excuse, as WKU has managed to go to the NCAA tourney the past 2 years and win 3 games. The Sun Belt has always been an above average basketball conference. I have not been to every arena in the Sun Belt, but would wager that we have the best.
Are these really your only expectations? To barely win 20 games while playing a creme puff OCC schedule? No at large bid to the NCAA and NIT 2 of the three 20 win seasons?
I know it's not the trend around here, but I expect more. I think the students expect more, or they would be there in greater numbers. Ditto for the Denton community.
If JJ was going to get an offer, it would have come after the NCAA appearance. The next one won't come until he goes, and has success in, another NCAA tourney.
I like JJ, but I'm not satisfied with what has been accomplished the last three years, and frankly think we had the personnel to do better.

If we accomplish nothing over the next ten years other than a few more 20-win seasons but no NCAA/NIT bids, then yes I would be disappointed that we couldn't get over that hump. However, I feel that the success over the last three seasons was an important step in the right direction--consistently winning. The next step will be consistently reaching postseason play (beyond the SBC tournament of course). That may or may not happen, but I feel that the program is poised to reach this point, and that's something I would have never dreamed of several years back.

UNT90 · December 30, 2009

Tasty and I had a talk about this awhile ago. JJ could very well leave with a few more years of similar success. But not to a "Big 6" league. There are many leagues ahead of the Belt in Basketball that could swipe him up without some NCAA Sweet 16 type of run. Heck, even Oklahoma State rolled the dice on a guy that only had NIT success(granted it WAS an NIT Championship game run). I don't think UMass was even drawing that well when Travis Ford was there. But anyways, I could see some school in the MVC or CAA take a look at JJ if he has a few more years of this kind of success. And don't kid yourself, they'd be able to pay more than us.
As far as the facility thing goes, the SuperPit is arguably the best, but it's not an obvious call. WKU for example has an excellent arena.

I don't really see either of those conferences being that much above the Belt, but your right, I was speaking of a big six job. I think that is the next step from success in this conference. I don't see why JJ would risk going to the MVC or CAA and take over a down program. They would have to throw a lot of money at him, because this would be one hell of a career gamble, in my opinion.

But the good news/bad news is, with WKU having a recognizable bball name, even among the big boys, all JJ has to do is beat them in the conference tournament this year, go to the NCAA, win a 1st round game, and, presto, he will have an offer. OK, maybe he will have an offer.

CMJ · December 30, 2009

I don't really see either of those conferences being that much above the Belt, but your right, I was speaking of a big six job. I think that is the next step from success in this conference. I don't see why JJ would risk going to the MVC or CAA and take over a down program. They would have to throw a lot of money at him, because this would be one hell of a career gamble, in my opinion.
But the good news/bad news is, with WKU having a recognizable bball name, even among the big boys, all JJ has to do is beat them in the conference tournament this year, go to the NCAA, win a 1st round game, and, presto, he will have an offer. OK, maybe he will have an offer.

The MVC is definitely a better basketball league than the belt. Wasn't it just 5 years ago they got like four teams in the Dance? The CAA is usually just a one bid league, so maybe it wouldn't be that much of a step up. But schools like George Mason and VCU have had arguably as much success(if not more) as the Hilltoppers in the NCAA's in recent years. That is a basketball league tho - JJ would be THE guy at a school there as opposed to NT where he's at best on par with the football Coach.

Edited December 30, 2009 by CMJ