Will Contraction Lead To Smart Expansion In The Sun Belt Conference?

[mgsteve]

Bleacher Report

[Guest GrayEagleOne]

Bleacher Report

This is an honest appraisal of where North Texas stands when expansion comes.

The big unknown is when it comes. That's very important in where we choose to locate until that happens. If the expansion begins in the next two or three years, the WAC scenario would only make sense if we knew that we would not be included in CUSA expansion. If the expansion is five or more years in the future then a 12 team WAC makes a lot of sense provided we are given the opportunity to change conferences without drastic penalty.

I firmly believe that we will have the essentials to being accepted by CUSA and, if it includes most or all of the current western members, we should jump at it. Ideally, his last scenario of including Memphis and Southern Miss would even be better. A nine-team league of UTEP, Tulsa, North Texas, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulane, Memphis and Southern Miss would be perfect in my eyes. If they wanted to include Louisiana, La Tech and either Arkansas State or New Mexico State then I wouldn't object to that either.

[BIG DAWG]

I like many of these scenarios...I would love to get NMSU back...GREAT rivalry there.

Just think...new stadium...new conference...all in a matter of a couple of years.

We have talked about both for many years now...at least one is sure fire going to happen

[hickoryhouse]

Perhaps I am naive but I think that with the current state of athletics here, even with football being in as bad a way as it is, we have been making huge strides to improve all programs in facilities, coaches (BB mainly) competitiveness and market location we seem to be a great candidate for a conference trying to expand or not lose much if the big players are heading to greener pastures.

Football is important of course but definitely not the only factor in the conference talks. We will all have to wait and see but I for one think the RV has done a good job getting us propped up and ready to compete for a new conference spot should that opportunity present it self soon.

[untjim1995]

This is an honest appraisal of where North Texas stands when expansion comes.

The big unknown is when it comes. That's very important in where we choose to locate until that happens. If the expansion begins in the next two or three years, the WAC scenario would only make sense if we knew that we would not be included in CUSA expansion. If the expansion is five or more years in the future then a 12 team WAC makes a lot of sense provided we are given the opportunity to change conferences without drastic penalty.

I firmly believe that we will have the essentials to being accepted by CUSA and, if it includes most or all of the current western members, we should jump at it. Ideally, his last scenario of including Memphis and Southern Miss would even be better. A nine-team league of UTEP, Tulsa, North Texas, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulane, Memphis and Southern Miss would be perfect in my eyes. If they wanted to include Louisiana, La Tech and either Arkansas State or New Mexico State then I wouldn't object to that either.

I just can't see a scenario at play ever where we are in the same conference as SMU. I just don't think that will ever happen. I think the private schools in this scenario are always going to vote together to protect their own interests--SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, and Rice.

[Green Dozer]

I just can't see a scenario at play ever where we are in the same conference as SMU. I just don't think that will ever happen. I think the private schools in this scenario are always going to vote together to protect their own interests--SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, and Rice.

You seem to know about this subject better than most, but I can't help but think Conf USA would not want to add another public school. Besides, with our new stadium, market, etc SMU will not have as good of an argument as they once had. With a new stadium and in a conference where we play schools that our prospective recruits have heard of will only help us. The winning will improve because we are able to attract better recruits (YES-THE COACHING WILL DEF HAVE TO IMPROVE, I KNOW). It would also be good for SMU as TCU is obviously leaving them behind as well and not playing SMU every year, to have a rival in the area.

[meangreen-mba]

that is a lot of talk about UNT....come on CUSA>>>>

[Guest GrayEagleOne]

Where are they going to get more private schools from? Not from the FBS unless they can talk Notre Dame into joining. All other private universities are in conferences; most in AQ conferences. Unless they can talk TCU, Baylor or Vanderbilt into leaving their conferences, there aren't any private schools close enough to be considered and there are still eight public universities in CUSA, so the privates aren't in the majority. No one that plays major college football is in a conference where private colleges are the majority.

It may not be what they want but it's what they will have to accept.

[yyz28]

Where are they going to get more private schools from? Not from the FBS unless they can talk Notre Dame into joining. All other private universities are in conferences; most in AQ conferences. Unless they can talk TCU, Baylor or Vanderbilt into leaving their conferences, there aren't any private schools close enough to be considered and there are still eight public universities in CUSA, so the privates aren't in the majority. No one that plays major college football is in a conference where private colleges are the majority.

It may not be what they want but it's what they will have to accept.

I tend to agree. As I see it, CUSA only have two places to pull from should they get raided - What's left of the WAC after they get raided and the 'Belt. ...when you consider who's in the belt, it is very easy to see how we're mentioned as many times as we are in that article.

With the stadium and athletic fee in the works, UNT IS the whole package. We're a huge school and getting bigger with growing visibility in the home market (WAY more folks in Dallas and Ft. Worth know what's going on at UNT now than ever before) which is a top tier TV market. Our recent success (or lack thereof) isn't really the driving factor behind these types of decisions. It's all about $$ potential, and I don't see who has more of it than us in the 'Belt and really the WAC for that matter with a few exceptions.

[stebo]

that is a lot of talk about UNT....come on CUSA>>>>

Keep in mind that BleacherReport.com (where the "article" was posted) is not a news magazine or even a professional website. They are a very unique website that will allow anyone to write an article. You could sign up today and write an article and have it posted by tomorrow. This is one of our fans writing this article, someone named Tobi. He has written articles on NT in the past and seems to also be a big fan of UTSA and Texas State. If you read his bio - you can see the obvious bias in the article. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer - just giving you an extra set of tools so that you don't get "too" excited. This article was professionally written but has no more credibility than a post on this board.

[untjim1995]

Where are they going to get more private schools from? Not from the FBS unless they can talk Notre Dame into joining. All other private universities are in conferences; most in AQ conferences. Unless they can talk TCU, Baylor or Vanderbilt into leaving their conferences, there aren't any private schools close enough to be considered and there are still eight public universities in CUSA, so the privates aren't in the majority. No one that plays major college football is in a conference where private colleges are the majority.

It may not be what they want but it's what they will have to accept.

Ok, I agree that those 4 private schools are not going to be able to add a 5th to their conference. No way any other private school is leaving voluntarily from where they are. So, lets play the assumption game that CUSA gets raided in this manner--the Big Ten takes Pitt or Rutgers, which makes the Big East choose someone, lets say its Memphis, since they fit their conference perfectly, or Central Florida because they can be a travel partner to USF and are in Florida. Then CUSA has to fill that void of one team. Well, the Eastern teams are still Memphis or UCF, Marshall, ECU, USM, and UAB. The West is Tulane, SMU, Tulsa, Rice, UH, and UTEP. Now if those 4 private schools are going to vote together, wouldn't you also assume that they have some pull with the other schools, particularly to the East where they just lost a school in one of their two big markets (Tennessee or Florida)? Usually, the votes for admission into a new conference require a strong majority, not 6-5. In my scenario, if I were MTSU or FAU right now, I would like my chances A LOT!! If I was a western-oriented public school in a market that already had a school who has a strong history, sits in the middle of the media center of that market, and oh by the way, has more money then God, sitting there saying to their buddies, "Uhh, I don't think they fit with us.", I think that would have a lot of pull. It certainly has for a long time, which is exemplified by SMU backing podunk-market LA Tech for CUSA admission over a school with a tad more potential up the road.

IMO, our road to significance isn't going to be in CUSA--unless SMU leaves. Pray that TCU stops looking down their noses long enough at SMU right now to consider them for admission into an expanded MWC. Then we are the perfect fit for CUSA. Otherwise, I think its in the SBC with our current bunkmates for at least the next 10 years or splintering off with some of the western SBC and joining a WAC that has a strong Eastern Division. BTW, I think the SBC with our current bunkmates minus a MTSU or FAU, but adding USA and eventually UTSA or Texas State, would probably be ok, especially since I believe the MWC/PAC-10 will eventually raid the Western WAC heavyweights at some point. I guess the other possibility in all of this is that we got our stuff together in the next five years in both football and men's hoops (multiple bowls and tourney appearances), see stronger attendance, and the MWC asked TCU to take us on as a travel partner and that was agreed upon by the Frogs. Other than a BCS invite or a new SWC being formed, the best possible alternative would be this scenario.

[AnotherEagleFan]

Bleacher Report

Bogus!

[stebo]

If we want to show that we are "serious" about big time football at NT - we would copy TCU and be pushing for a MWC invite. CUSA, WAC, MAC, Belt - all are interchangeable for the most part. At any time a school can rise up or fall. MWC has 3 teams in the top 25 each year. If we are going to think about going West for any reason - it would need to be for the Mountain West.... not the WAC. The WAC is doing better because it is regional again. Add an Eastern block to it and it goes back to being the Big West. It would be a terrible mistake for both the WAC and the school(s) invited. Build the Belt, it is no different than any of the non-auto qualifier leagues with the exception of the MWC. The MWC is very close to being auto bid BCS... it is less than 10 years away if they keep up their momentum.

Edited December 28, 2009 by stebo

[Green Mean]

If I am RV I am constantly on the phones with the MWC to get in their conference. I would do whatever it takes because that is clearly the best conference out of the non BCS conferences.

[wardly]

when/if big 10 takes a big east school,[r.u.?]i think the big east will take 2 cusa schools, one all sports and one football only.[ucf,ecu?] this gives them 9 football and 16 basketball members. when big 10 goes to 12, then pac 10 has said they will as well, probably from mountain west.[utah,byu?] the mountain west will reload, either taking 2 wac schools to get back to 9 members, or taking a total of 5 wac/cusa schools and increase to 12 members.[ the usual suspects are fresno,boise,nevada,utep,and houston.].if this happens,whats left of the wac,[6],belt[7],and cusa[8] could realine geographly with cusa/east and belt/east hooking up, and wac,cusa/west, and belt/west doing the same. however, when it gets down to a depleted wac,cusa,and belt its going to be musical chairs, with size of athletic budget being a deal breaker. someone is going to be left out, but it won't be north texas. with our new student fee, increased budget, new stadium as well as all other athletic facalities, i feel good about our chances of being in a regional conference with natural rivals. just my opinion.

[UNT90]

when/if big 10 takes a big east school,[r.u.?]i think the big east will take 2 cusa schools, one all sports and one football only.[ucf,ecu?] this gives them 9 football and 16 basketball members. when big 10 goes to 12, then pac 10 has said they will as well, probably from mountain west.[utah,byu?] the mountain west will reload, either taking 2 wac schools to get back to 9 members, or taking a total of 5 wac/cusa schools and increase to 12 members.[ the usual suspects are fresno,boise,nevada,utep,and houston.].if this happens,whats left of the wac,[6],belt[7],and cusa[8] could realine geographly with cusa/east and belt/east hooking up, and wac,cusa/west, and belt/west doing the same. however, when it gets down to a depleted wac,cusa,and belt its going to be musical chairs, with size of athletic budget being a deal breaker. someone is going to be left out, but it won't be north texas. with our new student fee, increased budget, new stadium as well as all other athletic facalities, i feel good about our chances of being in a regional conference with natural rivals. just my opinion.

Wondering how the lack of a baseball program will effect all this. It really isn't a revenue sport, but will it hold us back?

[Side Show Joe]

Wondering how the lack of a baseball program will effect all this. It really isn't a revenue sport, but will it hold us back?

If RV has a design for a baseball stadium in place when the next expansion happens, and told the interested conference we were going to build it, I'd like to believe they would take him at his word. I think everyone would agree, he has the credibility at this point.

One thing everyone seems to be overlooking when it comes to expansion, is that UNT is in a very unique situation. At a time when most schools are retracting, in an effort to save money, North Texas is expanding in almost every area. When I walk around campus and see new buildings going up, see trees being moved for our new stadium, and see UNT named one of the ten up and coming universities in the country, I have to feel that makes us a more attractive school then we realize. Our athletic budget will increase at a rate few other mid-majors will be able to keep up with. I would think conferences would want to expand with universities that are rising in stature, rather then ones that are retracting, or stagnant.

I don't know where we end up, but I truly believe that we can't stay in the Sun Belt. As long as the Sun Belt continues to expand by adding FCS schools, it will always be the "bottom of the barrel" in the FBS. The good coaches in the Belt will get hired away by bigger programs with more money to hand out, and the better teams in better markets will get picked up by more established conferences with better bowl ties, when expansion does happen.

At this point there are only three things I feel we need to be doing a better job of; winning, donating, and attending games. Of course winning makes it easier to get the other two done. I honestly feel we would have averaged around 24K if we just could have played .500 ball.

[Guest GrayEagleOne]

If we want to show that we are "serious" about big time football at NT - we would copy TCU and be pushing for a MWC invite. CUSA, WAC, MAC, Belt - all are interchangeable for the most part. At any time a school can rise up or fall. MWC has 3 teams in the top 25 each year. If we are going to think about going West for any reason - it would need to be for the Mountain West.... not the WAC. The WAC is doing better because it is regional again. Add an Eastern block to it and it goes back to being the Big West. It would be a terrible mistake for both the WAC and the school(s) invited. Build the Belt, it is no different than any of the non-auto qualifier leagues with the exception of the MWC. The MWC is very close to being auto bid BCS... it is less than 10 years away if they keep up their momentum.

Stebo, I agree that the MWC is the best of the non-AQ FBS conferences and that when they expand we would be a good fit. Even if we are considered to have a meager share of the 5th largest market it is still larger than Boise, Fresno, Reno, or Honolulu, the most likely additions or replacements. We also top all of them in size and academics and soon should match them in athletic budget. But, if Utah and BYU should leave for the Pac-12, a lot of the luster will be gone from the MWC.

Ditto for the WAC. They appear to be an accident waiting to happen. Unless they only lose one school to realignment, they will have a very tough time surviving and if they do will be another SBC or MAC. The "Big Four" dominate the league in attendance and bowl appearances and if a major part is lost there are no viable replacements.

In my opinion, the Belt will always be the worst or second worst FBS conference. We can only build the Belt with FCS teams. Only an occasional top player is content to play here so it will be almost impossible to build from within. Furthermore, if a team is successful its coach will be raided by a higher profile conference. Everyone but ULM is clamoring to get out at the first better offer. Troy, Arkansas State, WKU and ULM are in small markets so ESPN will never pay the big bucks to save the conference.

Personally, I still believe that CUSA, especially if they split, is the best conference for North Texas. I believe that we will draw more and recruit better with that scenario than any other. We could likely recruit as well in the MWC but attendance should be better against universities that we can travel to. No one will want to go to Wyoming, Colorado State, San Diego, or New Mexico. Las Vegas is a fun trip, but expensive. Other than TCU none of the trips are drivable. For travel reasons, I'll take CUSA (west) over the MWC.

Lastly, (from another thread) I don't see SMU being as much of a problem as Houston. At least SMU will schedule us, as will Rice and Tulsa, but Houston considers themselves too good for us.

[UNT_playmaker]

Wondering how the lack of a baseball program will effect all this. It really isn't a revenue sport, but will it hold us back?

It held us back when CUSA was seriously interested in UNT at that time and you can bet that it still is an issue.

By the way great article, it shows alot of different scenarios and gave UNT hope to be in the CUSA, made me happy..

[stebo]

It held us back when CUSA was seriously interested in UNT at that time and you can bet that it still is an issue.

By the way great article, it shows alot of different scenarios and gave UNT hope to be in the CUSA, made me happy..

Where did you see that not having baseball held us back during the last CUSA expansion? And I agree - if that was an actual article with sources and quotes, my green pants would be going crazy!!!... but alas, it is a blog in fancy packaging

[wardly]

Where did you see that not having baseball held us back during the last CUSA expansion? And I agree - if that was an actual article with sources and quotes, my green pants would be going crazy!!!... but alas, it is a blog in fancy packaging

i don't think lack of a baseball program was a factor in last cusa expansion, as smu does not have a baseball team. however, it is my understanding that a baseball program is a requirement for future cusa expansion, and that smu is grandfathered. if so, then i would think that if we agreed to add a program within an agreed upon time frame, that it would not be a barrier to entry. we just need to keep improving our facalities and increasing out budget.

[Quoner]

Where did you see that not having baseball held us back during the last CUSA expansion? And I agree - if that was an actual article with sources and quotes, my green pants would be going crazy!!!... but alas, it is a blog in fancy packaging

Don't fight the power of the Bleacher Report. It's 100% legit when it says what people want to hear.

Also, let Playmaker run with this. It will makes RV's next podcast more exciting.

[stebo]

i don't think lack of a baseball program was a factor in last cusa expansion, as smu does not have a baseball team. however, it is my understanding that a baseball program is a requirement for future cusa expansion, and that smu is grandfathered. if so, then i would think that if we agreed to add a program within an agreed upon time frame, that it would not be a barrier to entry. we just need to keep improving our facalities and increasing out budget.

Again, where in the world are you getting your information? Almost 90% of what you just both posted is incorrect. There is no conference bylaw for CUSA regarding baseball. SMU is not "grandfathered" into anything. I am not trying to be a jerk, but you guys seem to be just making stuff up. We were passed over for UTEP. UTEP does not have baseball. Come on guys - try to be somewhat honest with your posts.

Maybe these are items that are important to you? They certainly are not deal breakers for CUSA (or any other conference) and expansion. Obviously, a well rounded school is what all conferences seek - but that could be accomplished with higher academics just as easily as baseball. We all would love baseball - and that is next on the list after the stadium - but it has absolutely nothing to do with CUSA, their rules, or why we were passed over for UTEP last time. UTEP got the invite because they average 40K people a football game, have great basketball with great attendance, and have made a commitment to their athletic program - primarily, they have an athletic budget exceeding $25 million a year (per CUSA bylaws). They do not have baseball and baseball had nothing to do with the last expansion slot that we did not get.

[Side Show Joe]

Again, where in the world are you getting your information? Almost 90% of what you just both posted is incorrect. There is no conference bylaw for CUSA regarding baseball. SMU is not "grandfathered" into anything. I am not trying to be a jerk, but you guys seem to be just making stuff up. We were passed over for UTEP. UTEP does not have baseball. Come on guys - try to be somewhat honest with your posts.

Maybe these are items that are important to you? They certainly are not deal breakers for CUSA (or any other conference) and expansion. Obviously, a well rounded school is what all conferences seek - but that could be accomplished with higher academics just as easily as baseball. We all would love baseball - and that is next on the list after the stadium - but it has absolutely nothing to do with CUSA, their rules, or why we were passed over for UTEP last time. UTEP got the invite because they average 40K people a football game, have great basketball with great attendance, and have made a commitment to their athletic program - primarily, they have an athletic budget exceeding $25 million a year (per CUSA bylaws). They do not have baseball and baseball had nothing to do with the last expansion slot that we did not get.

This article says UTEP's current athletic budget is $19,200,000, because CUSA asked them to make cut-backs. Or budget is not that high, but with the athletic fee kicking in after our new stadium is done, we should out grow their budget.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/minersmania/ci_12839281

[wardly]

Again, where in the world are you getting your information? Almost 90% of what you just both posted is incorrect. There is no conference bylaw for CUSA regarding baseball. SMU is not "grandfathered" into anything. I am not trying to be a jerk, but you guys seem to be just making stuff up. We were passed over for UTEP. UTEP does not have baseball. Come on guys - try to be somewhat honest with your posts.

Maybe these are items that are important to you? They certainly are not deal breakers for CUSA (or any other conference) and expansion. Obviously, a well rounded school is what all conferences seek - but that could be accomplished with higher academics just as easily as baseball. We all would love baseball - and that is next on the list after the stadium - but it has absolutely nothing to do with CUSA, their rules, or why we were passed over for UTEP last time. UTEP got the invite because they average 40K people a football game, have great basketball with great attendance, and have made a commitment to their athletic program - primarily, they have an athletic budget exceeding $25 million a year (per CUSA bylaws). They do not have baseball and baseball had nothing to do with the last expansion slot that we did not get.

for someone who is not trying to be a jerk you do an excellent job. since when is everything you say is correct and others wrong. i don't see you providing data to back up your statements other than "i'm right and you're wrong".by the way , i said that is "my understanding" regarding smu and cusa baseball program requirement,which is based upon a conversation with athletic administration a few years ago.. maybe you are right, but if so why are we talking about adding a baseball program, which would be just another underfunded sport? i'm sure you have the insite for all of us, so please share.