Minimum 5 Game Improvement Next Year

UNT90 · December 3, 2009

Considering that the the biggest turn around this year for a D1A school was 5 games, the task ahead of this team is grand. The record turn around for a D1A program was posted by the 1998-99 Hawaii team, with an 8 1/2 game turn around. I couldn't find any info on the in between years, so if anyone out there does, please post.

When people come on here and predict 7 or 8 wins, I really don't think they get the historical significance that this improvement would signify.

I really hope y'all are right, but...

Curious, what is the school record for games won differential from one year to the next.

Maybe VideoEagle can answer this off the top of his head, since he has annointed himself as the most bestest, all knowing UNT fan ever.

Edited December 3, 2009 by UNT90

VideoEagle · December 3, 2009

Considering that the the biggest turn around this year for a D1A school was 5 games, the task ahead of this team is grand. The record turn around for a D1A program was posted by the 1998-99 Hawaii team, with an 8 1/2 game turn around. I couldn't find any info on the in between years, so if anyone out there does, please post.
When people come on here and predict 7 or 8 wins, I really don't think they get the historical significance that this improvement would signify.
I really hope y'all are right, but...
Curious, what is the school record for games won differential from one year to the next.
Maybe VideoEagle can answer this off the top of his head, since he has annointed himself as the most bestest, all knowing UNT fan ever.

Not that I've anointed myself as anything, but in 74 Hayden Fry had a 2-7-2 record and in 75 he went 7-4 including a win over Tennessee. And in 74 he lost to some pretty weak teams including Lamar, West Texas State, Cal State Long Beach and tied that football powerhouse Drake.

Check out College Football Data warehouse for North Texas.

By the way, I was looking at the start of Hayden's career and his record after his first 3 years as a head coach. Hayden was 7-24 including going 1-9 his third season. Todd Dodge is most certainly not Hayden Fry yet, but their records look similar after three years.

Edited December 3, 2009 by VideoEagle

UNT90 · December 3, 2009

And the winner is...

Corky Nelson!!

From 2-9 in 1982 to 8-4 in 1983.

The school record for win increases in a one year period is 5 1/2 games. There is only one other time where a 5 win improvement occurred (3-7 in 1965 to 8-2 1966, Odus Mitchell).

This covers 96 years of football.

So, 2 times in the 96 year history of this school have the results demanded by RV occurred.

So we are taking a 2.08% chance on this thing next year.

Those are pretty bad odds.

Where is that guy that wanted to bet season tics and a mean green club membership?

Edited December 3, 2009 by UNT90

KingDL1 · December 3, 2009

And the winner is...
Corky Nelson!!
From 2-9 in 1982 to 8-4 in 1983.
The school record for win increases in a one year period is 5 1/2 games. There is only one other time where a 5 win improvement occurred (3-7 in 1965 to 8-2 1966, Odus Mitchell).
This covers 96 years of football.
So, 2 times in the 96 year history of this school have the results demanded by RV occurred.
So we are taking a 2.08% chance on this thing next year.
Those are pretty bad odds.
Where is that guy that wanted to bet season tics and a mean green club membership?

Did anyone say it was without risk? It is better then the lottery that should mean something. Isn't from 2 to 8 a six win difference? Dodge needs a 5 win increase, and he has the or else to motivate him.

Edited December 3, 2009 by KingDL1

James Mosley · December 3, 2009

Just looking at the returning level of competition in the Sun Belt and the OOC games on schedule for next year, together with the possible move of the Kansas State game, I would bet if a computer were to generate our win total for next year it would look something like 7 wins 6 losses, or 8 wins 5 losses. Please don't let the 13 game total fly over your head.....

UNT90 · December 4, 2009

Did anyone say it was without risk? It is better then the lottery that should mean something. Isn't from 2 to 8 a six win difference? Dodge needs a 5 win increase, and he has the or else to motivate him.

I said a five win increase???? It has been done exactly 2 times in 96 years . Yes, it is slightly better than lottery chances. Pardon me if I don't want to play the lottery with the football program.

Mr. Mosley, no disrepect, but like I said before this year, I will listen to the experts. They are devoid of any emotion and will predict based on the data before them. I remember many people on here cussing the experts when they picked us 7th in the conference this year. We ended up 7th in the conference. I would be shocked if any of them pick us to win more than 4 games next year. I hope your son and the rest of the team use this as motivation and make the biggest turn around in school history. I'm just saying that the odds are stacked high against them.

James Mosley · December 4, 2009

I said a five win increase???? It has been done exactly 2 times in 96 years . Yes, it is slightly better than lottery chances. Pardon me if I don't want to play the lottery with the football program.
Mr. Mosley, no disrepect, but like I said before this year, I will listen to the experts. They are devoid of any emotion and will predict based on the data before them. I remember many people on here cussing the experts when they picked us 7th in the conference this year. We ended up 7th in the conference. I would be shocked if any of them pick us to win more than 4 games next year. I hope your son and the rest of the team use this as motivation and make the biggest turn around in school history. I'm just saying that the odds are stacked high against them.

No disrespect taken UNT90. Trust me, my son and his teammates are not driven to motivation by a message board. Seriously, ask yourself why would they be.

akriesman · December 4, 2009

I said a five win increase???? It has been done exactly 2 times in 96 years . Yes, it is slightly better than lottery chances. Pardon me if I don't want to play the lottery with the football program.
Mr. Mosley, no disrepect, but like I said before this year, I will listen to the experts. They are devoid of any emotion and will predict based on the data before them. I remember many people on here cussing the experts when they picked us 7th in the conference this year. We ended up 7th in the conference. I would be shocked if any of them pick us to win more than 4 games next year. I hope your son and the rest of the team use this as motivation and make the biggest turn around in school history. I'm just saying that the odds are stacked high against them.

Most 2-10 teams that were used in this example were probably killed in most games. Our team was competitive this season and could have had a winning record with a few more good coaching decisions and the prevention of a few critical blunders.

Going from 2-10 to 7-5 is easier, if the 2-10 season was based on things that SHOULD be easily fixable. Recruiting talented players cannot be fixed overnight. However, coaching blunders, a lack of discipline and the kicking game (not to throw Jeremy under the bus) are things that can be turned around quickly.

I am not saying that we will be 7-5 next season. But, I think we are a lot closer to turning things around than most 2-10 teams were in the past. So, I discount the 2% chance of turning things around statement. Each situation is different.

foutsrouts · December 4, 2009

How did everyone miss this?
So we are going to Hawaii?

Either that, or maybe we're having a big money exhibition "bodybag game" against SLC?

GoMeanGreen1999 · December 4, 2009

Another words UNT90, throw out all those statistics, facts, history, odds, ect....none of that matters because this is Todge and we were just a few plays away (even though you can make the same argument that we were a few plays away from 0-12 and 0-36) and just trust us this team will win 7-8 next season because we are driven, ect.

I may be getting a case of the TTG's.

Green P1 · December 4, 2009

I may be getting a case of the TTG's.

Dip it in bleach and take a salt bath.

FirefightnRick · December 4, 2009

No really, all it's going to take is playing Army very close. I promise. My friend untcampbell wouldn't lie to you.

Rick

UNT90 · December 4, 2009

No disrespect taken UNT90. Trust me, my son and his teammates are not driven to motivation by a message board. Seriously, ask yourself why would they be.

"This" wasn't referring to the message board, but was referring to only being done twice in 96 years.

Actually, I was hoping that just my little ol' opinion would motivate the team to glory.

UNT90 · December 4, 2009

Most 2-10 teams that were used in this example were probably killed in most games. Our team was competitive this season and could have had a winning record with a few more good coaching decisions and the prevention of a few critical blunders.
Going from 2-10 to 7-5 is easier, if the 2-10 season was based on things that SHOULD be easily fixable. Recruiting talented players cannot be fixed overnight. However, coaching blunders, a lack of discipline and the kicking game (not to throw Jeremy under the bus) are things that can be turned around quickly.
I am not saying that we will be 7-5 next season. But, I think we are a lot closer to turning things around than most 2-10 teams were in the past. So, I discount the 2% chance of turning things around statement. Each situation is different.

Well, lets take a look at the only 10 loss season this team had in it's history before the last 3:

L

09-16-1972

21

Cal St.-Long Beach

24

Norwalk, CA

L

09-23-1972

0

San Diego St. (CA)

25

Irving, TX

L

09-30-1972

8

Drake (IA)

54

Des Moines, IA

L

10-07-1972

6

Wichita St. (KS)

23

Wichita, KS

L

10-14-1972

6

Louisville (KY)

56

Louisville, KY

L

10-21-1972

6

Memphis (TN)

7

Irving, TX

L

10-28-1972

16

Arkansas

42

Little Rock, AR

W

11-04-1972

27

Cincinnati (OH)

25

Irving, TX

L

11-11-1972

22

New Mexico St.

36

Denton, TX

L

11-18-1972

14

West Texas A&M

17

Irving, TX

L

11-25-1972

22

Tulsa (OK)

45

Tulsa, OK

The 3 close losses to Memphis, West Texas A&M, New Mexico (hey, if you count MTSU as a close loss, you gotta count this) and Longbeach comparable to Ohio, ULL, MTSU, and Army. Man, they were just a few plays from 5-5!! Sound familiar?

The good news? The next year UNT was 5-5-1.

The bad news? It was under a new coach by the name of Haden Fry.

Guys, this whole "a few plays away" is such flawed thinking. EVERY team is just a few plays away.

EDIT - please excuse the format, it didnt cut and paste like I hoped.

Edited December 4, 2009 by UNT90

NT80 · December 4, 2009

By the way, I was looking at the start of Hayden's career and his record after his first 3 years as a head coach. Hayden was 7-24 including going 1-9 his third season. Todd Dodge is most certainly not Hayden Fry yet, but their records look similar after three years.

???

I think you need to look at the link again.

Fry:

1973 = 5-5-1

1974 = 2-7-2

1975 = 7-4-0

First 3 year total = 14-16-3

Got5onIt · December 4, 2009

You really need to get over this!

Why? We've created a whirlwind of respect in Utah from the Army game. We pretty much own Provo now.

SUMG · December 4, 2009

???
I think you need to look at the link again.
Fry:
1973 = 5-5-1
1974 = 2-7-2
1975 = 7-4-0
First 3 year total = 14-16-3

I think he was talking about Coach Fry's first three years as a head coach: at SMU.

NT80 · December 4, 2009

I think he was talking about Coach Fry's first three years as a head coach: at SMU.

Oh. But who cares what happens at Smut anyway? Hayden probably dumped them down on purpose, even better!!

UNT90 · December 4, 2009

Most 2-10 teams that were used in this example were probably killed in most games. Our team was competitive this season and could have had a winning record with a few more good coaching decisions and the prevention of a few critical blunders.
Going from 2-10 to 7-5 is easier, if the 2-10 season was based on things that SHOULD be easily fixable. Recruiting talented players cannot be fixed overnight. However, coaching blunders, a lack of discipline and the kicking game (not to throw Jeremy under the bus) are things that can be turned around quickly.
I am not saying that we will be 7-5 next season. But, I think we are a lot closer to turning things around than most 2-10 teams were in the past. So, I discount the 2% chance of turning things around statement. Each situation is different.

Like 4 years? Dude, all of these have been happening the last 3 years. All of them. They weren't fixed. Why do you think they will be in year 4?

VideoEagle · December 4, 2009

???
I think you need to look at the link again.

As SUMG pointed out, I was writing about Hayden's first three years ever as a head coach at any level. Those were 62, 63, and 64 at SMU.

And just to be really, really clear, I am not saying Dodge is going to be the next Hayden Fry. I'm just pointing out that some coaches have bad early records and then become much more effective collage coaches. It's not where you start but where you finish that counts.