We Should Expect A Big Win On Saturday, Right?

CaribbeanGreen · October 28, 2009

I know we've had our problems. I know we have a lot of questions about the direction of this thing. I know we have some injuries.

But barring an epic meltdown, we win this thing comfortably, right? One thing Football Trilli has been able to do on the field the past three years - some would say the only thing - is beat WKU. And I venture to say this might just be the WORST Hilltopper team of the bunch - and that's saying something.

Consider this:

WKU is 0-7, and has lost 15 straight games dating back to last season.

This year, they lost 28-7 to CENTRAL ARKANSAS, who outgained the Toppers 407-287 with UCA completing more than 80% of their passes....

UCA won by 3 TD's despite turning it over twice and committing 8 penalties for 82 yards (almost twice the penalty yardage as WKU) ...

also, UCA ran TWENTY ONE - count 'em, 21 fewer plays than WKU... obviously losing the ToP battle, yet still whipping the Toppers.

Did I mention that all this happened on WKU'S HOME FIELD?!?

The best game WKU has played all year, and their closest margin of defeat, was an 8 point home loss to ULL. They also lost at home to FIU by 17, their next best SBC performance.

Let's compare some team rankings for the year so far, shall we:

Rushing Offense: NT -33, WKU - 54

Passing Offense: NT - 54, WKU - 114

Total Offense - NT - 38, WKU - 113

Scoring Offense - NT - 75, WKU - 112

Rushing Defense - NT - 99, WKU - 119

Pass Eff. Defense - NT - 61, WKU - 120

Scoring Defense - NT - 117, WKU - 119

Total Defense - NT - 111, WKU - 120

It's hard to find a single statistical category where WKU measures up except Punt Returns (WKU - 68, NT - 119) and Turnover margin (both teams T-111).

Defensively, as bad as it has been here, it's been WORSE in Bowling Green. The Toppers are literally dead last in the nation in Total Defense, and ahead of only winless Eastern Michigan in rushing defense (or most any aggregate team category, where WKU is 119 or 120).

In addition, WKU is LAST in the nation in sacks. No one pressures the QB less. Meanwhile, NT is actually ranked #1 in the SBC in sacks allowed. Riley/Tune or your grandmother should basically be able to hold poetry readings in the pocket while carving up the WKU defense.

Believe me, I know there's no such thing as a sure win for this thing. I'm not proposing that this one is already over. Quite simply that this is the rare game that we are essentially better than our opponent in almost every aspect of the game. Period. This is a "exert your will" kind of thing - against a team that is basically an average to poor FCS team (Central Arkansas lost to SFA at home and beat Glenville St. - GLENVILLE STATE!!!! - at home by a full TD less than than they beat WKU on the road.).

Show up. Limit mistakes. Keep the foot on the gas... and this thing wins going away. What that's worth, I'm not sure, but I'll take wins any way I can get them.

Edited October 28, 2009 by CaribbeanGreen

gangrene · October 28, 2009

Is it a coincidence that St. Louis and Detroit play each other this week too?

NT03 · October 28, 2009

We better not get our a$$ kicked

MeanGreen61 · October 28, 2009

A wise man once said "statistics don't win games". That said, we should win by at least 10.

Edited October 28, 2009 by MeanGreen61

forevereagle · October 28, 2009

A wise man once said "statistics don't win games". That said, we should win by at least 10.

Yeah, because if they did, we should have beat ULL.

That said, I do have concerns about this game. This team seems to have regressed through the season, and I am just not confident about beating anyone at this point.

KingDL1 · October 28, 2009

A wise man once said "statistics don't win games". That said, we should win by at least 10.

I hope we win, but I don't expect to win. If I was predicting the score, I would and will if the topic comes up, I would predict a blow out in our favor. But after watching the games this year I am not worried about the Hill Toppers beating us, I am worried about us beating ourselves.

risinggreen · October 28, 2009

Rushing Offense:

WKU #54

Rushing Defense:

NT #99

That, and our potential for big turnover games, are the stats that worry me.

shaft · October 28, 2009

A win over winless Western Kentucky is not big.

This is a must win game. Dodge's job is on the line.

emmitt01 · October 28, 2009

A win over winless Western Kentucky is not big.
This is a must win game. Dodge's job is on the line.

No, it's not (his job). And, no, a win isn't assured.

If we get up big and show that we know how to NOT meltdown then I will be impressed.

GoMeanGreen1999 · October 28, 2009

No, it's not (his job). And, no, a win isn't assured.
If we get up big and show that we know how to NOT meltdown then I will be impressed.

A win over a #120 team that is 0-7 would impress you? Or just if we got up big and don't let up? I think I know what you mean, but anything under a 20 point win over WKY will not do anything for me.