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2009 Prediction


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Did this a couple of week into fall practice last year. But, we're going to Florida for the better part of two weeks, so I'll get it in now. The Fake Lonnie Finch 2009 Guide will be available the week of game one in some form.

My prediction for 2008 was 3-9 with a couple of possibilities of a couple of stolen wins. It is the same in 2009: 3-9 is likely, but 5-7 wouldn't surprise either. The experience we lost on the offensive side of the ball will have the wheels spinning for the most part on that side of the ball.

The fun of 2009 will be watching the front seven under Mike Nelson and Gary DeLoach. Shelton Gandy's special teams will also be an improvement over the Keystone Cops meets the Three Stooges routine we've been treated to over the past two seasons.

As with the 2008 prediction, although I don't expect us to have a winning season, I expect us to be competitive. And, I mean very competitive. There simply is no excuse for it anymore. No more raising the Darrell Dickey boogie-man as an excuse. It's time for Todd Dodge to prove his worth here. If we've gotten three to five wins at the conclusion of the season, and have been competitive in all others (excluding Alabama), he's warranted another season. If we get blown out early and often again, it really is time to call it off and get a college football coach in the drivers seat again.

Game 1 at Ball State: Ball State 28, UNT 19

The hiring of Mike Nelson as the defensive line coach and the special teams take over by Shelton Gandy will be fully evident in Game One. The opening game will not be like the blowouts from 2007 and 2008. Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks. Ball State has more supporting skill players returning for their QB. Ball State's QB is also being tutored by Stan Parrish, the former Michigan assistant who coached both Brian Griese and Tom Brady during the careers at Michigan. The Wolverines won a share of the 1997 national title with Parrish guiding the QBs. Parrish was also the QB coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the 2002 Super Bowl title season.

The chess match of this game will be among Parrish of Ball State and Mike Nelson and Gary DeLoach of UNT. With a super star at tailback, Ball State will provide an immediate test for Nelson and his young, newly configured defensive line. Ball State may be replacing four offensive linemen, but they are not replacing them with players who haven't seen the field before. UNT's defensive line rotation, will be featuring brand new players in their first FBS-level game. Parrish will likely have his QB doing what he had his QBs at Michigan do so well - protect the ball and let the ground game control the tempo of the game.

Game 2 OHIO: Ohio 25, UNT 22

Many UNT fans feel this game is a good bet for an out of conference victory. I agree. In 2008, Ohio switched from a run-heavy offense to a diverse offense which saw them split the play selection almost 50/50 between the run and pass. The Bobcats return two QBs who started parts of last season (one was injured early on). After an 0-4 start that saw the Bobcats lead Ohio State in the second half before losing and playing Big 10 Northwestern to within eight points (both of the road), they settled into a 4-4 record in their final eight games.

Here again, we'll see Mike Nelson's experience at play. He and Ohio coach Frank Solich gameplanned against one another for the better part of a decade when they were at Iowa State and Nebraska respectively. Solich was the offensive coordinator, then head coach. Nelson was the defensive line coach charged with stopping the then-formidable Husker rushing attack. The renewed showdown between Nelson and Solich alone will be worth the price of admission in this one.

As with the Ball State game, having more experienced skill players returning on the offensive side of the ball should be enough for the Bobcats to pull this one out. But, Mean Green fans shouldn't despair of a loss here. Ohio is very likely a bowl contender in 2009. Playing them to the gun will be an excellent sign.

Game 3 at Alabama: Alabama 47, UNT 6

There's really not much to discuss here. Alabama was a quarter away from playing in the national title game last year and returns nine starters off that defense. Trying to scheme against that defense will be the high school Todds - Dodge and Ford - and their new QB and WRs. It won't be pretty as Alabama's experienced front seven squashes whatever those two attempt to muster.

Game 4 MIDDLE TENNESSEE: MTSU 36, UNT 28

With 10 starters returning on to an offense led by former Troy coordinator Troy Franklin, the Blue Raiders have no excuse for underachieving again in 2009. Franklin is eminently familiar with MTSU's conference foes. UNT's secondary is going to be better than in 2008. But, MTSU returns eight of its top nine receivers and should be able to win enough battles in the secondary to take home the win.

The Blue Raiders are ridiculously experienced on both sides of the ball. Few underclassmen are in the starting mix. Rick Stockstill really has no excuse to not be the front runner for the Sun Belt title. along with Troy. If he can't get it done with this team, you wonder if he can ever get it done.

What keeps us close, again, will be Nelson and DeLoach. Nelson's line should be gelling enough to have some answers for talented Blue Raider tailback Phillip Tanner. Plus, he and DeLoach have seen plenty of spread offenses in their day. Nelson matched wits against Mike Leach in the Big 12 for a few seasons and was on the staff of San Diego State with former OU co-offensive coordinator Chuck Long. DeLoach had a good swim through the Pac-10 whose schools are more than adept at winging it around weekend after weekend.

Game 5 at Louisiana-Lafayette: Louisiana-Lafayette 29, UNT 28

UNT and ULaLa are almost identical twins on paper. Both lost their their starting QBs and WRs from 2008. The Cajuns also lost their top tailback, while UNT returns theirs. UNT's line is experienced. The Cajuns return all five starters on their line. They played almost every snap together save for two games when one guard was injured. That 12 starts apiece for four returners and 10 for the other. None are underclassmen. The line features both Lombardi and Rimington Award candidates and may be the best in the Sun Belt.

Both UNT and ULaLa return about the same thing on defense as well a couple of DLs, all linebackers, and many experienced players in the secondary. Each team returns almost their entire compliment of special teams specialist.

This should truly be a coin flip of a game. Here, I simply give the edge to the Cajuns because, again, what their new offensive skill players have in the way of coaching is still superior to what ours will have. Their likely starter at QB stepped in for an injured Michael Desmoreaux last season and delivered a win. His main competition for the starting job also played in 2008 and threw a touchdown pass. So, it's not as if their new starting QB is going to be totally green. Mix that in with the experienced line and special teams, and I just think you have to go with these guys at home.

Game 6 FLORIDA ATLANTIC: UNT 33, Florida Atlantic 28

Florida Atlantic is expected to compete for the Sun Belt title and garner a third straight bowl trip. They return Unitas award candidate Rusty Smith at QB and their leading receivers, but lose seven starters on defense. They also lose their two leading rushers on offense.

I believe this game will come down to the wire, with us finally notching an upset victory of old man Schnellenberger. I have no rational basis for this prediction, other than the Law of Averages dictates that we've got to get up on them sometime. With their defense being rebuilt, this may be the year to sneak up on them and do it.

On a side note, FAU defensive cordinator Kirk Hoza should be on the short list to replace Todd Dodge if we falter again this year and and Rick Villareal pulls his head out of his backside.

Game 7 at Troy: Troy 30, UNT 29

I expect this to be another edge-of-your-seat type game. Troy is looking for its fourth consecutive Sun Belt title. But, like Florida Atlantic, they've lost alot on the defensive side of the ball from 2008. While I expect the Trojans to win the title again, I don't think they'll be beating teams by double digits, as was the case in most of their 2008 Sun Belt teams.

Their offense returns nearly every skill player and most of the line. Their special teams returns intact. Larry Blankney is the best coach in the league. He'll be pushed here by our solid defensive coaching staff, but will pull out the win at home.

Game 8 WESTERN KENTUCKY: UNT 37, Western Kentucky 22

Western Kentucky is finally a full-fledged FBS team. They, sadly, account for 2/3rds of our win total over the past two seasons. They had a terrible time moving the ball in 2008 - except against us. In their five games against Sun Belt competition last season, the Hilltoppers managed 80 points - 40 of those came against us.

No more. The Hilltoppers return only three starters on defense and are very thin on depth at all positions there. They return seven starters on offense, but that shouldn't really make a difference. Our defensive coaching staff should be able to easily handle whatever is thrown their way. There is no reason for us not to win this game by double digits. If WKU is playing us close again in 2009, we will be well into another one or two win season. This is a game we should dominate on both sides of the ball.

Game 9 LOUISIANA-MONROE: Louisiana-Monroe 28, UNT 20

ULM's new defensive coordinator is bringing in a high pressure package he used in the MWC with New Mexico and in the WAC with UTEP. Add to the lineup, New Mexico's former DL coach and Georgia's former secondary coach. They will shape a Warhawks defense that returns nearly everyone in their defensive two-deep from 2008, which will help offset the loss of QB Kinsman Lancaster at QB.

The high school Todds have yet to prove they can scheme against high pressure defenses. The addition of the secondary coach from Georgia will be a boon for ULM as he has already spent part of his career preparing defensive backfields for battle against the likes of Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer. It will likely be too much the the Todds to deal with...again. This would be a great weekend to break out the two tight end set. But, don't hold your breath.

Game 10 @Florida International: Florida International 40, UNT 32

The Golden Panthers return 10 starters from their high-scoring offense of 2008. This is the year they break through. And, where they go this year is where we would be had be hired a college coach back in December of 2006.

Mario Cristobal came close to a breakthrough last season, coming within eight of South Florida and three of Louisiana-Monroe. Wins there would have given FIU the miracle winning season after recently losing 26 games in row. A bowl contending Panther squad could spell grief for coaches not getting it done in other places (MTSU, UNT, ULALA).

Game 11 ARMY: UNT 25, Army 19

This game shouldn't be close, but it probably will be. Rich Ellerson is a great coach who is getting the opportunity to show it at the FBS level. It not improbable that he has the Black Knights in the four to six game win category in 2009. And although they may have a losing record in 2009, Army is not going to be a team to look past.

Game 12 at Arkansas State: Arkansas State 26, North Texas 23

Barring injury to Reggie Arnold and Corey Leonard, ASU should be able to squeeze out another win in what is becoming a good rivalry between the two schools. Steve Roberts' team is loaded on defense and strong on offense. He has no excuse from competing for the Sun Belt title.

Edited by The Fake Lonnie Finch
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2008 PREDICTION REPOST:

I expect 3-9, but would not be surprised by 5-7 (adding winnables Rice and WKU to the win list). DeLoach coming back to guide the defense will be a factor in improving, but he doesn't have the cast of characters he did in 2001 and 2002. It took him a few seasons to build that tough 2002 defense. Now is no different. Too much inexperience on the defensive side of the ball this year.

On the offensive side, we'll be fine if Dodge can resist the temptation to monkey with Vizza. Vizza is proven and will again be hooking up with Casey Fitzgerald, Brock Stickler, and Sam Dibrell. Micah Mosely and Cam Montgomery will do well, but the offensive line depth will hurt us in the end. Dodge must turn to recruiting linemen this year or he will flame out before his contract is up.

Overall, the games will be closer than last year, and I believe we'll have a winning record at home. However, getting over five wins is going to be asking alot of this group. In 2009, however, there will be no excuse for not contending for the Sun Belt title. Key opponents will have lost senior QBs while Vizza will be a battle-hardened junior...if, if, if Dodge can resist the urge to put in his son too soon! Dodge, Jr. should be redshirting the 2008 campaign while Vizza leads the way and the experienced Meager backs up for his final season. If Todd Dodge can't see that...well...everyone will have vastly overrated his knowledge as a football coach.

Game 1 at Kansas State: KSU 45, UNT 21

It doesn't really matter that KSU has a bunch of JUCO guys coming in. On the offensive side of the ball, they have plenty coming back. Their veteran offensive line wears our fledgling defensive line down in the third quarter to break away.

Game 2 Tulsa: TU 41, UNT 34

This is a game of two spread offenses. Tulsa had a bad defense on the road last year, but still managed to outscore most opponent in the way to a CUSA Championship appearance and a 63-7 beating of Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl. TU is still a few seasons ahead of us. Our new defensive backs get their first real look at a spread team.

Game 3 at LSU: LSU 45, UNT 19

It's LSU. They will be coming off a game with Troy and preparing for the game the next week at Auburn. They get up on us early, then pull the starters to rest for the early SEC showdown with Auburn the following week.

Game 4 at Rice: Rice 43, UNT 32

Like the Tulsa game, this is two offenses that wing it around. Rice will have been trashed by Texas the weekend before we get there and will be happy to see softer competition.

Game 5 Florida International: UNT 40, FIU 25

We inexplicably lost to the worst team in college football last year, FIU. It won't happen again.

Game 6 Louisiana-Lafayette: UNT 36, ULL 31

Yes, ULL has some talented seniors on offense. However, most of it is run-based. By this point in the season, I expect out DL to be doing better against the run. We feed off the win the weekend before and steal one from hardluck Ricky Bustle's bunch for a second consecutive home win.

Game 7 at Louisiana-Monroe: ULM 39, UNT 21

Kinsmon Lancaster and a group of experienced receivers and a gelling Warhawk defense snap our two game win streak.

Game 8 Troy: Troy 36, UNT 32

We give Troy an unexpected fight, but fall short. We are getting tougher at home.

Game 9 at Western Kentucky: WKU 48, UNT 15

For whatever reason, the bottom falls out. The Hilltoppers remember the game that got away in Denton and play a tighter, more disciplined game this time around.

Game 10 at Florida Atlantic: FAU 40, UNT 25

These are the Sun Belt favorites. Much experience on offense and defense. At this point in the season, Owl QB Rusty Smith should be well into leading FAU to back-to-back Sun Belt titles.

Game 11 at Middle Tennessee State: MTSU 38, UNT 18

A third consecutive tough conference road game. MTSU will be fighting for a piece of the Sun Belt title; we'll still be struggling to learn how to win on the road. Although, this many conference road games this late in the season would be brutal on any team, much less the one we'll have with such an inexperienced defense.

Game 12 Arkansas State: UNT 31, ASU 28

For some reason, Arkansas State has lost tons of road game under Steve Roberts - even in Sun Belt play! Their inability to win consistently on the road will bite them here again, was we finish 3-2 at home for the 2008 season - a positive sign for a breakout 2009 season.

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Game 1 at BALL STATE: Ball State 24, UNT 21

This game should be an instant classic between two rebuilding teams on Thursday night. BSU is rebuilding from an extremely successful season and leans on their stud RB, while UNT is rebuilding from an extremely disappointing season and will also lean on their running game while breaking in a new QB. I feel that home field advantage will allow BSU to win a squeaker.

Game 2 OHIO: UNT 31, Ohio 24

The Mean Green take away many positives from their efforts in Muncie along with an extended recovery time, and come away with a nice win for the home opener in the 2nd to last season in Fouts Field. Riley Dodge will entertain the crowd with his feet, and the defense should do just enough to win this game against a solid Ohio team following their loss against UConn.

Game 3 at ALABAMA: Alabama 56, UNT 10

The Crimson Tide 'roll' through another Sun Belt opponent following a dismantling of FIU the previous week. UNT plays hard, but is extremely out-athleted, and this one is just plain ugly.

Game 4 MIDDLE TENNESSEE: MTSU 37, UNT 28

I hate to chalk this one up as a loss, but I feel that a hungover UNT squad In last year's game, UNT was dismantled in Murfeesboro by the Phillip Tanner show. An improved defense and kicking game keeps UNT in this one until late in the game where I think that Middle Tennessee's experience will take over. This game should put up some impressive offensive numbers from both squads, and entertain a nice crowd at Fouts Field.

Game 5 at LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE: UNT 41, Louisiana Lafayette 35

Following a 1-4 start, UNT works out some kinks and expands the playbook during 2 weeks of prep for the Ragin' Cajuns and puts up plenty of offense in Lafayette despite the Cajuns returning an experienced front 7. In last year's game, the teams traded turnovers with Louisiana converting on those and the Mean Green unable to capitalize. The game was within 7 points after UNT's first drive of the 3rd Qtr (should have been within 4-missed FG), and then the wheels came off. This year, that will not happen in this game as I believe the Mean Green will steal a nice win, and get back to the .500 mark in conference.

Game 6 FLORIDA ATLANTIC: Florida Atlantic 33, UNT 21

FAU comes into this one loaded on the offensive side of the ball, and following their bye week, they are able to upset the Mean Green in front of their faithful. This game was absolutely horrible in Boca Raton last year, and this year's game should be a marked improvement against a superior opponent.

Game 7 at TROY: Troy 38, UNT 28

Troy is the class of the league, and they win a hard fought game against the Mean Green. These teams have similar styles, and in last year's game Troy displayed their abundance of weapons while protecting the football. Vizza was picked off 3 times by the Trojans defense last year, and I don't feel like Troy will have the playmakers on D that they had last year.

Game 8 WESTERN KENTUCKY: UNT 42, Western Kentucky 24

The Mean Green will show marked improvement for the home fans against a winless Hilltopper squad that is hungover from the thrashing they took in Murfeesboro the week before. Riley Dodge will begin to really 'get it' this game, and will lead UNT to an explosive performance offensively, while the Mean Green defense keeps WKU in check until late in the game when it's out of hand.

Game 9 LOUISIANA-MONROE: UNT 21, Louisiana-Monroe 19

The Mean Green will squeak out a tough, physical defensive battle and win this afternoon game in Denton. It won't be pretty, but it'll be a 'W and push UNT back to the .500 clip in Sun Belt play.

Game 10 @FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL: FIU 45, UNT 35

FIU is the most improved football program in the conference. This game shold provide plenty of fireworks on a nice evening in Miami, and unfortunately, the most explosive player in the conference (TY Hilton) will go off on the Mean Green defense and special teams again. UNT will play the Golden Panthers tough, but in a case where both teams need a Belt win, FIU is too much on their home turf.

Game 11 ARMY: UNT 35, Army 24

In a game full of pageantry, UNT will defeat the Black Knights in another tough, physical game on the turf of Fouts Field, and send fans away with some nice memories from their 2009 home season.

Game 12 at Arkansas State: UNT 42, Arkansas State 34

Experience and confidence leads the Mean Green over the beaten up Red Wolves. I feel that UNT will click on all cylinders on a cool Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro. The D-Line finally reaches their potential and harasses Corey Leonard all game long. Last years game featured 3 INT's by Vizza and no red zone defense by the Mean Green against the potent ASU rushing attack. UNT will cap off a much improved season by defeating Arkansas State and finishing .500 in league play.

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One thing I really like about our schedule is that we do not go on the road back to back all year.

Other small positives :

vs Ohio : it will be their 1st road game ( 0-4 in games outside the state of Ohio last year)

@ Bama : last game before SEC play starts ( they have ARKANSAS the next week,maybe they will be looking ahead :unsure: )

vs MTSU : we get to host our 1st SBC game of the year, plus we have a week off to prepare ( 1-5 on the road last year)

vs ULL : They could be really banged up by the time we see them (play K-St,LSU,NEB before we see them)

vs Army : We are in between the Air Force & Navy game. Could be diffucult to prepare b/w the 2heavily run based teams

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we may get to 3-4 wins but i expect a couple of blowout losses this season. i.e. troy, mtsu, and maybe fiu.

look at army's schedule last year and how they did and then predict a win. i can't.

i'm expecting 2-10 but a 2 game swing either way wouldn't surprise me. i just can't get a feel for this team.

Edited by meanrob
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we may get to 3-4 wins but i expect a couple of blowout losses this season. i.e. troy, mtsu, and maybe fiu.

look at army's schedule last year and how they did and then predict a win. i can't.

i'm expecting 2-10 but a 2 game swing either way wouldn't surprise me. i just can't get a feel for this team.

I agree here--I see 2-3 wins. I think we beat WKU for sure and then we win 1 or 2 against ULM, Army, ULL, and Ohio. I think we get beat by BSU, FIU, FAU, MTSU, Troy, and Arkansas State. And, of course, I think Alabama will score at least 60 on us.

I think 3 wins keeps Dodge here.

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Dodge WILL be back...UNT gets 5 wins in 2009. Wins over: Ball St., Ohio, ULM, W. Ky and Army. With a little luck UNT picks up # 6 over ULL.

GO MEAN GREEN!

This worries me. If KRAM is only predicting 5 wins, this MUST mean we are destined to win only 1 or 2.

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Dodge WILL be back...UNT gets 5 wins in 2009. Wins over: Ball St., Ohio, ULM, W. Ky and Army. With a little luck UNT picks up # 6 over ULL.

GO MEAN GREEN!

I've been working on a new research project, similar to the Equivalent Futility List from last year.

Not to spoil anything... But anyone who doesn't think Dodge will get at least 6 wins this year should not want him back for year four.

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Hey, it's pre-season. Five wins...I wrote the prediction on the Mean green poster at the Barber Shop in downtown Denton for all to see...Didn't really have enough space to mention the possibility of 6 with a bit of luck. What, some of you folks thought I'd predict 12-0 for the Mean Green? Come on now...

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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like teams rarely improve by more than three games from one season to the next. However, I can think of a few exceptions: Ball State 07-08 (7 to 12), Alabama 07-08 (7 to 12), FIU 07-08 (1 to 5), and TCU 04-05 (5 to 11). I'm sure there are several more examples, but this is all I could think of at the moment.

So, it's hard for me to predict more than 4 wins, but 6 is not impossible.

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Hey, it's pre-season. Five wins...I wrote the prediction on the Mean green poster at the Barber Shop in downtown Denton for all to see...Didn't really have enough space to mention the possibility of 6 with a bit of luck. What, some of you folks thought I'd predict 12-0 for the Mean Green? Come on now...

What's this? A pragmatist in optimist clothing? :huh: Careful now, someone might ask you to turn in your pom poms..... ;)

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This worries me. If KRAM is only predicting 5 wins, this MUST mean we are destined to win only 1 or 2.

So true.

Hey, it's pre-season. Five wins...I wrote the prediction on the Mean green poster at the Barber Shop in downtown Denton for all to see...Didn't really have enough space to mention the possibility of 6 with a bit of luck. What, some of you folks thought I'd predict 12-0 for the Mean Green? Come on now...

My prediction is up there too.

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What's this? A pragmatist in optimist clothing? :huh: Careful now, someone might ask you to turn in your pom poms..... ;)

There is a difference between an optimist and a pessimist who cloaks themselves in a disguise by calling themselves a pragmatist. Nope, I'm keeping my "pom poms" thank you very much...and, just in case anyone is wondering...this WILL be a great season to be a Member of the Mean Green Nation...it's REDEMPTION TIME for the MEAN GREEN!

GO MEAN GREEN!

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There is a difference between an optimist and a pessimist who cloaks themselves in a disguise by calling themselves a pragmatist. Nope, I'm keeping my "pom poms" thank you very much...and, just in case anyone is wondering...this WILL be a great season to be a Member of the Mean Green Nation...it's REDEMPTION TIME for the MEAN GREEN!

GO MEAN GREEN!

:blink:

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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like teams rarely improve by more than three games from one season to the next. However, I can think of a few exceptions: Ball State 07-08 (7 to 12), Alabama 07-08 (7 to 12), FIU 07-08 (1 to 5), and TCU 04-05 (5 to 11). I'm sure there are several more examples, but this is all I could think of at the moment.

So, it's hard for me to predict more than 4 wins, but 6 is not impossible.

If you can rattle off that many, then it must not be too uncommon. I would say that the majority of the time, teams only improve by 3 wins or so, but a quantum leap forward is not unheard of or extremely rare.

Not that I expect a quantum leap forward.

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I am so excited that our season is about to start (and bored of no sports) that I think will revise my initial prediction from 6-6 to 8-4!!!! Yes, 8-4 baby! Take it to the bank!

Edited by chrisfisher
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