This Year Vs. Last Year Analysis

GoMeanGreen1999 · July 29, 2009

The passing game will be a loss. FBS-level college football is leaps and bounds different than college ball. It doesn't matter what Riley "knows" or how "fast" people think he's going to be. He'll be facing defensive coordinators who have been running rings around his dad and Ford for two seasons. The speed of the game at this level will wear on him. His size will also be a factor in him wearing down. There's simply not enough there for a full season at this level of competition.
Vizza took a pounding, but he was built for it. Dodge will not be able to withstand the same kind of beating. In his final high school game, he broke a collarbone. In the small amount of time he saw the field in 2008, he absorbed a concussion. Due to Dodge and Ford's offense, he'll take a ton more hits than if his dad would use his brain and move him to defensive back or receiver where he belongs at this level.
Because it is doubtful that we'll have much of a passing game threat, the run game will also suffer. Opposing defenses will once again neutralize Dodge and Ford's pass-first offense, then clog the running lanes enough to build solid leads by halftime.
Special teams will be much better by default - Robert Drake is gone and has been replace by a proven college coach, Shelton Gandy. Gandy should be kept, or at the very least interviewed, by the new head coach when the wheels completely fall of the Dodge wagon. If anything keeps us in the games in the first half, it will be Gandy's charges on the special teams units.
The front seven will be the strength of the defense. Again, Robert Drake is gone and has been replaced with a guy whose experience dwarves all other coaches on the staff. The secondary is again young. Add to that, the safeties are again being coached by a guy who was a wide receivers coach, a quarterback coach, and then an offensive coordinator during the 17 seasons before he arrived here. In a totally sane alignment of the coaching staff, he'd be on the offensive side of the ball where he belongs. But...we're talking Coach Dodge here, so Petersen's learning curve - and our opponents' "bombs away" mentality - will continue in 2009
Overall, the defense should be much better. Any improvement we see over our one win 2008 will be due to Mike Nelson and Gary DeLoach.
As stated a couple of months ago, I'd consider 4-8, with all four wins coming in the Sun Belt, a successful season. As bad as I think the offense will be, the truest axiom in college football is that defense wins games. The Sun Belt may be "tougher" but it is still the Sun Belt. We're into Year Three of this experiment and should have the brain trust on the defensive side of the ball alone to keep two or three games close enough to steal. If we are not competitive in the Sun Belt this season, we will officially be spinning our wheels for however much longer Rick Villareal would continue to let the Dodge experiment play out.

The only thing I disagree on is you say "when" the wheels completely fall off, and I would say the wheels have fallen completely off. This season is Dodge's only season to see if he has any clue how to get them back on.

I just don't see how anyone honestly looks at the QB and WR postion and thinks we will see improvement.

Edited July 29, 2009 by GoMeanGreen1999

mad dog · July 29, 2009

These are the only two mild disagreements I have with your writeup. I don't think you can discount the significant hit we took in the receiver corps. All we can rely on here is optimism and potential... I think calling the passing game a push, given the growing pains and risks associated with Riley and the total dependence on new or unproven talent... That's not realistic. I think that we'll see a drop in the passing game. Or at least that we need to expect it.
I also think you're being a little too pessimistic on defense. I believe we'll see a return to the Bleil level of performance this year. Adequate. But adequate is a pretty big gain.

I can see where you're coming from, and agree with you to a certain extent. I think I may have been a little too light on the hit to our receiving corps, but I think that I think the offensive line, from an experience and growth standpoint, is certainly nothing to sneeze at. If I were to re-evaluate, I might grade the passing a little lower.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the defense. There are parts that are good, but one weak position in a defense will kill you. If you have one bad receiver, you don't have to throw to him, or throw at all. If you have a bad corner, teams are going to key in on them all night long. If you have have question marks at defensive end, one tackle spot, one linebacker spot, a cornerback spot, and both safety spots... That's where I'm coming from.

TIgreen01 · July 29, 2009

I don't want to turn this into an argument, because I enjoyed reading your post... But Riley's game experience last year consisted of two interceptions and a season-ending concussion. I don't know that his game time was quite the same as being tested by fire and coming out ready to kick ass.
I'm not trying to tear the kid down, just keep the expectations realistic. We all need to be fair- he's a freshman, not a particularly large one, and he's having to take over a team with zero returning proven receivers. Riley's got lots of ability and a ton of potential, but it seems very, very unfair to expect him to come in and upgrade our offense immediately.
Again, not trying to fight with you. Just my perspective.

No argument on the "type" of game experience he got. Definitely not equal to playing QB for a full season---but at least he got on the field and saw the size and speed up close.

I never said to "expect" him to immediately upgrade the position. My opinion is that he will do just that. However, if we're talking expectations, I think you can definitely expect him to do as well as our previous Freshman QB did in this offense---Vizza in 2007. Granted there are many factors that are different now than they were then...more proven oline now, potential lack of the deep threat we had in 2007's WR corps, etc. I just think that we have seen what this offense looks like with an underclassmen running it during the past 2 seasons. Why anybody would grade this position as WORSE than those 2 seasons based simply on a Riley vs. Vizza comparison, I just don't understand....unless you give lack of experienced depth as your primary reason. We had Meager, a proven backup with loads of starting experience, last year and really nobody backing up Riley that has any experience this year.

Again, the thing that stings here is that we lost Vizza. We either would have had Vizza as a junior starter (with 2 seasons starting experience), or at least as a backup who could come in if Riley struggles. When you look at it from that perspective, then this is a loss for this season. But I don't think you can look at it that way in a year on year comparison. Expectation wise, RF Riley vs. F Vizza = PUSH...not a loss, not a gain.

Edited July 29, 2009 by TIgreen01

Mean Green 93-98 · July 29, 2009

Good conversation. Two things I might add:

1. Riley is now the same weight, or more, than Vizza was at this time going into his freshman season.

2. I really don't see how special teams will be a loss from last year. I'm not saying I'm convinced it will be good, but I am sure it will be better.

Won't be too long until we know for sure about all of these things.

UNT90 · July 29, 2009

Yep, TFLF, Vizza put up crappy numbers his true freshman season without having the knowledge of the system Riley has and without a seasoned offensive line that Riley will play behind.

Love how you just dismiss the fact that Vizza ran the same offense in High School, therefore having just as much experience with the offense as R. Dodge.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/MYSA111...6_html1912.html

I would love to see some version of the wildcat offense this year. Take advantage of the talent that you have on offense.

Edited July 29, 2009 by UNT90

meangreendork · July 29, 2009

Good conversation. Two things I might add:
1. Riley is now the same weight, or more, than Vizza was at this time going into his freshman season.
2. I really don't see how special teams will be a loss from last year. I'm not saying I'm convinced it will be good, but I am sure it will be better.
Won't be too long until we know for sure about all of these things.

Yeah, all our conjecture will be moot or confirmed come the Ball State game. I'm hoping we're wrong about things being worse and right about things being better. Our program can do all it wants to bring up the stadium, but ultimately, wins will do more than anything else. New stadium =/= wins, but wins could +++ for a new stadium.

Charlie NT 73 · July 29, 2009

Wow, so many MG fans ragging on one of the best state of Texas QB's, to ever come to North Texas!

Simply freaking amazing! Judged, and already condemed by the MG nation!

Riley is a solid 195lbs right now. Has great quickness, speed, strong arm, and knows the offense since he was

a kid. Riley will have a very solid OL with a strong rotation, top RB's, WR's with more speed than ever before.

Riley is a leader, smart, and knows what is going on. Riley will be a heck of alot better redshirt QB than you currently believe.

Lets look ahead to Ball State. Sunnyvale TX , red shirt Kelly Paige will start for Ball State. No college game experience at all, starting under first year HFC Stan Parrish, with a OL that lost 4 starters, and their big name

offensive stars.

Who do you think will be the best QB in this game?

I will go with Riley Dodge!

TheTastyGreek · July 29, 2009

Wow, so many MG fans ragging on one of the best state of Texas QB's, to ever come to North Texas!
Simply freaking amazing! Judged, and already condemed by the MG nation!
Riley is a solid 195lbs right now. Has great quickness, speed, strong arm, and knows the offense since he was
a kid. Riley will have a very solid OL with a strong rotation, top RB's, WR's with more speed than ever before.
Riley is a leader, smart, and knows what is going on. Riley will be a heck of alot better redshirt QB than you currently believe.
Lets look ahead to Ball State. Sunnyvale TX , red shirt Kelly Paige will start for Ball State. No college game experience at all, starting under first year HFC Stan Parrish, with a OL that lost 4 starters, and their big name
offensive stars.
Who do you think will be the best QB in this game?
I will go with Riley Dodge!

Who the hell is ragging on Riley Dodge here? Who? Who's saying he's not talented? Who's saying he's not capable? Who's saying he's not gifted with the potential to be a very good quarterback for us?

Who the hell is judging and condemning him? WHO? Name a name. Identify ONE PERSON who has condemned him in this thread.

"So many MG fans"??? WHO ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT???? There's only one guy here who's been critical/negative, and that was on the first page, and THAT was in regards to what we saw in the spring game.

So who are you talking about? Where is the condemnation?

Come on, already. Be serious. What's "simply freaking amazing" is your sense of hyperbole, lack of reading comprehension, or both. Enough of this crap already.

Edited July 29, 2009 by TheTastyGreek

Greendylan · July 29, 2009

Just to shift the perspective a bit, here's another angle on areas of improvement: If this season's defense improves to a point where it matches the median 2008 FBS scoring defense, then it will surrender about 25 points per game. That would have meant that we had finished last season at 4-8.

So, as we all know, defense is the glaring problem, but there's certainly room for improvement on offense as well.

Regarding the offense, here are my reasons for optimism: We will possibly have a Rivals three star recruit at QB, RB, and WR. Furthermore, as previously noted, the offensive line will be one of the most experienced in the nation. I realize I'm completely negating important factors such as classification for QB, RB, and WR, and yes, the rating for the QB was as an athlete. Regardless, I expect to at least see flashes of brilliance out of the offense this season. They may not be consistent, but their talent should at least show.

Quoner · July 30, 2009

Who the hell is ragging on Riley Dodge here? Who? Who's saying he's not talented? Who's saying he's not capable? Who's saying he's not gifted with the potential to be a very good quarterback for us?
Who the hell is judging and condemning him? WHO? Name a name. Identify ONE PERSON who has condemned him in this thread.
"So many MG fans"??? WHO ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT???? There's only one guy here who's been critical/negative, and that was on the first page, and THAT was in regards to what we saw in the spring game.
So who are you talking about? Where is the condemnation?
Come on, already. Be serious. What's "simply freaking amazing" is your sense of hyperbole, lack of reading comprehension, or both. Enough of this crap already.

Simply freaking amazing! Judged, and already condemed by basic 6th grade literacy.

meanrob · July 30, 2009

Not that this is an original thought, it might have been said earlier but all aspects of the team may be better and it won't translate into wins. Especially the defense.

I'm not worried about who is going to be the better QB in Muncie, IN. I'm worried about whether we can stop anybody.

I don't care what they lost, they started out 12-0 last year. Hell if we had done that, even with losing good players we'd be laughing if a 1 win team was coming into our house predicting/thinking victory.

Doesn't mean it can't happen, it's just that i'll have to see it to believe it.

Green P1 · July 30, 2009

I wish all you guys didn't hate Riley so much.

eulessismore · July 30, 2009

I wish all you guys didn't hate Riley so much.

I don't hate Riley; I love him, although many here in Euless resent that a team he quarterbacked beat our high school team in the playoffs. I'll love him more if he quarterbacks a North Texas team that is noticeably improved offensively in 2009. The measures for improvement would be (1.) games won, and (2.) points scored.

That is not to say that said lack of scoring or winning was entirely on last year's offensive players. I don't really have any single answer for the lack of offensive scoring, it seemed like a team problem (yes, including coaching staff). I agree with those who say the lack of winning was mainly due to defense and special teams.

I think we can have a successful season, which I would consider to be 4 or more wins, and being competitive in all but one or two games, if Riley is one part of overall improved team play.

TheTastyGreek · July 30, 2009

Tasty, I can name one. TFLF said he should be playing defensive back or receiver. That is definately trashing the QB. I have no idea why he thinks the punishment for those two positions is less than at QB.

To that point... TFLF has said that Riley wasn't being considered as a QB at Texas, and that because of his size and speed he probably wouldn't have an easy time getting QB consideration at other top tier D-1 football schools because of what his natural athletic gifts allow him to do elsewhere. He's said that Riley would be a DB at Texas if he'd stayed. And Lonnie actually praised Todd Dodge (one of a VERY few) when he burned Riley's redshirt and played him at receiver. Said that the right thing to do is to play your best eleven, Riley is definitely one of the best players on our roster (even as a true freshman), and that using him as a WR when we need a spark was a much wiser move than saving him to play an extra year at QB 4 years down the line.

He's never said, at least since Vizza transferred away, that Riley shouldn't be our starting QB. And anything else he's said that anyone might consider "trashing" Riley, not that I'd agree with that label, has been in other places at other times.

-------------------------

The reason I make such a confrontational issue of it is because Charlie is totally off point and out of his mind with what he said. Even if you think Lonnie has been trashing Riley elsewhere... It hasn't happened here. And to jump in on a thread that has gone back and forth between "Riley is very talented and he'll almost certainly be a great player somewhere down the line, but we shouldn't hold him to unrealistic expectations" to "Riley is very talented and will immediately be head and shoulders above our former QB, who happened to be the conference Freshman of the Year"... Then start scolding people for "ragging", "condemning", and all that other complete fictional bullpoop*... Well, it makes me angry.

As a general rule, I'd go out of my way to respond to this sort of stupidity in an overly friendly and non-confrontational way. But I'm pretty much done trying to be friendly and gracious towards Charlie. After having to respond to multiple borderline personal attacks including ones with overtly homophobic insults... And having to put up with similar bullpoop* on the SBC forum and then come back here to read several snippy comments (like this one) that I couldn't even see or respond to when they were made because of my suspension...

And all this coming after I've spent months trying to respond to this sort of feces* with humor or ignore it completely, going out of my way to say friendly things whenever possible or try to reach out through PMs as a way of trying to keep things from being personal (or at least, keep the personal stuff one sided).

For example:

I don't dislike you, Charlie. I'm glad you're so enthusiastic and even when we disagree, I certainly don't think I've made any personal attacks on you.
You can certainly disagree with me and I don't think any less of you for it. Like I said, I like you and I respect your opinion even when I don't share it. But this sort of thing? Making a lazy joke about my board name and cracking a gay joke? You're a better guy than that. Don't stoop to it again.

Well, the Hades* with putting up with this feces* anymore. Other people can be batpoop* crazy or unpleasant or take haymaker swings at straw men and windmills. But when Charlie does it where I'm involved or vaguely implicated... I'm going to start responding in kind. It's not that I can't take it... It's just that I'm going to start dishing it out to him, too.

Quit being an idiot or quit being an anal opening*. Ideally, do both.

And since this almost certainly qualifies as a personal attack, I'll be taking my next GMG vacation tomorrow, I suppose.

* - Edited by suggestion to remove some potentially inappropriate language

Edited July 30, 2009 by TheTastyGreek

NT03 · July 30, 2009

Boy, that escalated quickly.. I mean, that really got out of hand fast.

It jumped up a notch didn't it ?

TheTastyGreek · July 30, 2009

Boy, that escalated quickly.. I mean, that really got out of hand fast.
It jumped up a notch didn't it ?

dib2-HBsF08

It's an even better news anchor movie than Anchorman!

Edited July 30, 2009 by TheTastyGreek

FirefightnRick · July 30, 2009

Boy, that escalated quickly.. I mean, that really got out of hand fast.
It jumped up a notch didn't it ?

...and Charlie, as far as we know, didn't even attend UC Irvine?

Rick

Shuke-D · July 30, 2009

...and Charlie, as far as we know, didn't even attend UC Irvine?
Rick

F'ing loser school.

Anteaters Bite my A**

Got5onIt · July 30, 2009

Tasty, I can name one. TFLF said he should be playing defensive back or receiver. That is definately trashing the QB. I have no idea why he thinks the punishment for those two positions is less than at QB.

How about having 11 guys trying to take your head off?? A defensive back might get lucky to make a tackle, chances go up slightly if they 're playing safety. WR's may have a ball thrown in their direction a 1/4 of the time. QB is one of the most punishing positions on the football field, why down play that fact? How is TFLF trashing the QB? His assessment is right on regarding Riley's potential position at any "BCS" school.

Edited July 30, 2009 by Got5onIt

Censored by Laurie · July 30, 2009

F'ing loser school.
Anteaters Bite my A**

You said this...not FireHelmet Jesus

KRAM1 · July 30, 2009

WOW...OK, you would have to put me in the camp with those who think there are folks on this board that have been trashing Riley....for what reason, I certainly do not know. Since I have graduated from three colleges and attended one other...two are in the Big XII by the way, and since I read their boards and alumni "stuff" too, I can tell you...none of my "other" school's fans ever go off on coaches and players the way this board does. Agreed, some posters, etc. are none too happy about things at times, but I have never seen what appears to me to be the continued negative rehtoric like you see on GMG.com regarding one's own team. I am sure there are boards of schools out there that go way beyond what is posted here, so, believe me, I am not saying the posters here are "the worse" around or anything near it. I am just saying that it surprises me how negative folks can be toward individual players and coaches. It will probably surprise me just as much when some of the folks who think the team will be "awful" again this season and how Riley will get beaten up and how Riley can't do this or that and how Coach Dodge should do this or that (BTW...some of the suggestions here for Coach Dodge have been excellent ideas indeed...we all know that) change their tunes when the wins and much improved play comes.

Charlie nt73 has some great experience and some great points...I tend to relate to his enthusiasm and positive attitude toward the program...Tasty also has some great points...as do many...many...of the other posters here on GMG.Com. Both Charlie and Tasty are great members of the Mean Green Nation and both love the Mean Green. We can all agree on that....so, let's ramp it down in the rethoric catagory....and I'll start another strike if Tasty gets banned. Ha! :lol:

FirefightnRick · July 30, 2009

You said this...not FireHelmet Jesus

Hey, what's with the fantasizing over male genetalia sex objects in your signature line? Not THAT AGAIN?

Censored By Laurie: You could spend months meticulously constructing a miniture Clipper ship, piece-by-piece, in a glass bottle...or you could do the Republican method and just roll a dildo in glitter. Either way...you've got yourself a conversation piece.

Rick

mad dog · July 30, 2009

Reading through a lot of these points, it seems that those who claim positivity across multiple categories base most of their conclusions on conjecture, at best.

Recruits, even if highly touted, have a big bag of nothing until they can prove it on the field. To be honest, kids more often than not will fizzle after getting to campus. How many difference makers do we currently have on the team? Of those, how many were difference makers during their first year playing? It would be a tremendous statistical anomaly to have new guys show up and contribute at every position of need. Very few of these guys, historically speaking, turn into impact players. I used to have an easy time looking at incoming freshmen and jucos with Pollyanna eyes, thinking that we just recruiting "the class" that will turn things around. I just got tired of looking for them every year and never finding them.

Likewise, there's no way you can "replace" a proven all-conference caliber punter with, frankly, some dude who at this point is nothing more than a new name. Is there a chance he might show up and become our beloved mush mouthed Coach Joe? Yes, but there is also a chance we run the Belt and show up in New Orleans again: I'm just not betting on it. Likewise spending a scholarship on a punter is nice, but that's not getting better. Speed on special teams is nice, but that doesn't make you a great returner. Even if it did, you're still dependent upon the other 10 return team guys to open holes for you, which happened with stunning irregularity last year.

The only thing I'm comfortable accepting on credit alone is that the coaching staff will be improved, and that is based on specific examples from Coach Dodge on how he is tweaking his offense and Coach DeLoach's proven track record at North Texas.