All Texas High School Games Halted Until 5/11

eulesseagle · April 30, 2009

What a better time to enact more draconian legislation than during a "crisis."

oldguystudent · April 30, 2009

I was listening to the radio on the way in today and there are some parents in school districts that are still open saying that they're holding their kids home because some of the classes have "Spanish" kids. Nice.

As for Draconian legislation during a crisis, there's definitely precedent for that.

Smitty · April 30, 2009

An average of 36,000 people die each year from some sort of flu, yet regardless of the warnings countless still refuse to get a flu shot.

Exactly. Routine varieties of the flu kill thousands every year. But this time we're not talking about the flu that many people get each year. Forget about the flu you got last year that made you feel like crap for a few days. This is not the same flu bug.

This has to do with the fear that a large number of scientists have had for decades, based on previous experience, that a new strain of the flu - which is a very fast moving disease - will develop and cut through the population as it did in 1918. It’s not that our medicine is not more advanced, it’s the fear of a rapidly-spreading disease to which no one has immunity.

Perhaps the World Health Organization, scientists all over the world, and some local officials have overreacted. They probably have. But so far this new strain has been reported to have a ten percent mortality rate, and that has the WHO and local officials terrified.

Think about that number. According to the CDC, five to twenty percent of the U.S. population get the flu each year. That's 15 to 60 million people. Only a tiny percentage die each year. But IF the fear of this new strain is realized (and it is an absolutely huge IF) and it does have a ten percent mortality rate, then you're looking at the possibility of 1.5 million to six million dead in the U.S. alone. Is it likely? I have no idea. But people who do have an idea are very worried, so maybe extreme precautions are in order to prevent even a chance of that happening.

Edited April 30, 2009 by Smitty

3XNTGRAD · April 30, 2009

Think about that number. According to the CDC, five to twenty percent of the U.S. population get the flu each year. That's 15 to 60 million people. Only a tiny percentage die each year. But IF the fear of this new strain is realized (and it is an absolutely huge IF) and it does have a ten percent mortality rate, then you're looking at the possibility of 1.5 million to six million dead in the U.S. alone. Is it likely? I have no idea. But people who do have an idea are very worried, so maybe extreme precautions are in order to prevent even a chance of that happening.

Thanks for those numbers - I had been trying to find those.

Another note on the "normal" flu. Most deaths caused by the seasonal flu viruses are in the very young, very old, or people who are very sick. The concern with a 1918-type pandemic is that the deaths occur in ALL kinds of people (even those who were otherwise healthy). That is why the public health response is so aggressive right now.

island eagle · April 30, 2009

Thanks for those numbers - I had been trying to find those.
Another note on the "normal" flu. Most deaths caused by the seasonal flu viruses are in the very young, very old, or people who are very sick. The concern with a 1918-type pandemic is that the deaths occur in ALL kinds of people (even those who were otherwise healthy). That is why the public health response is so aggressive right now.

The potential problem with this flu IF it is or evolves into a potent virus, nobody has an immunity at this point against it. Using the 1918 pandemic as an example, the initial outbreak was mild and killed few people. The virus mutated and came back with a vengeance a few months later with many deaths. Ironically, those who got the first "mild" wave of the flu had developed immunity against the second, more lethal strain. So, maybe it will be good to get it now if it is still relatively mild.

Talking to a friend here at UTMB who is an infectious disease researcher, the big worry with this virus seems to be the ease of transmission and the unknowns about how lethal or non-lethal it will tend to be.

Smitty · April 30, 2009

It's the freakin flu!!! I'll bet you 500 don't die, much less 500,000. I'm going to Mexico over Memorial weekend. Gonna eat a ton of bacon and lie on the beach. The dumbest crap I've ever heard.

This no longer has anything to do with pigs. The strain developed in pigs but it has evolved, and now it can apparently be transmitted from person to person. That is the fear of these new strains. It was the same with the Avian flu a little while back - the epidemiologists were hoping it did not develop into something that one person could give to another. This one has made that transition.

You know, I don't know anyone that contracted SARS. Wasn't that supposed to kill us all?

Then maybe the efforts to contain it worked.

I pray that 500 don't die, much less 500,000. But please take this seriously. A pandemic of a new flu strain is one of the nightmares that keep epidemiologists awake at night.

Edited April 30, 2009 by Smitty

forevereagle · April 30, 2009

So what exactly do they think all these kids will do during the time off, especially the high school kids?

Screw?

UNT90 · April 30, 2009

This no longer has anything to do with pigs. The strain developed in pigs but it has evolved, and now it can apparently be transmitted from person to person. That is the fear of these new strains. It was the same with the Avian flu a little while back - the epidemiologists were hoping it did not develop into something that one person could give to another. This one has made that transition.
Then maybe the efforts to contain it worked.
I pray that 500 don't die, much less 500,000. But please take this seriously. A pandemic of a new flu strain is one of the nightmares that keep epidemiologists awake at night.

I'll take this about as seriously as I took SARS (not at all). I wouldn't alter your life at all unless you are an ailing plus 60 year old or a child under 6 (or care for the same), or you care for people of this age. A Dr. on the news described this as a milder virus than the common flu that goes around every year, but the problem is there is no vaccine.

If one of these ever came from a chicken, I really hope they call it the Chicken Little Flu. That would be appropriate.

As far eating bacon in Mexico, I said that mainly because I like bacon and any time I think of bacon it makes me happy. It just happened to fit the conversation.

ummmmmmmmmmmm bacon!!!!!!!

CMJ · April 30, 2009

Well UNT90, you're probably right in this case - it'll turn out to be nothing. Chances are remote in any one year that a superflu will ravage the world. So you can think the scientific community is just jerking us around, and you'd seem to be right most years. Maybe even your entire lifetime.

But the odds say one of these years another killer flu like the Spanish Flu will come and kill millions.

It's like people who live on the coastlines and hurricanes. Chances are in any one year they aren't gonna get hit by a big storm. Hell, sometimes where you are is hit but by a lesser cane, and you don't take the threat seriously. It might be decades between a major landfall.

Then one day an Andrew or a Katrina wipes your community out.

TIgreen01 · April 30, 2009

I'll take this about as seriously as I took SARS (not at all). I wouldn't alter your life at all unless you are an ailing plus 60 year old or a child under 6 (or care for the same), or you care for people of this age. A Dr. on the news described this as a milder virus than the common flu that goes around every year, but the problem is there is no vaccine.
If one of these ever came from a chicken, I really hope they call it the Chicken Little Flu. That would be appropriate.
As far eating bacon in Mexico, I said that mainly because I like bacon and any time I think of bacon it makes me happy. It just happened to fit the conversation.
ummmmmmmmmmmm bacon!!!!!!!

Funny stuff....you basically singled out the vast majority of the American population with that quote. Other than that, I do tend to agree that this thing is being overblown....but who knows?

LongJim · April 30, 2009

Hysteria. Fetch it, Spot.

CMJ · April 30, 2009

Thanks LongJim, the article basically said what I stated a few times. This virus was quite concerning initially, seems alot more mild now, & could be dying off relatively soon. However, stay vigilant in the future just in case. Scientists aren't crying wolf just for the hell of it.

Monkeypox · April 30, 2009

Sure, scientists aren't crying wolf for the hell of it. There are a variety of reasons, like:

1) Research Money

2) Attention Whoring

3) Lack of touch with reality

Being involved in medicine on a daily basis and having an entire family of healthcare workers, I'm not even a little bit worried. You know what happens when you get H1N1?

You get the flu.

CMJ · April 30, 2009

I'm not really worried about this either. I am about the "real" pandemic and no one takes it seriously because of apparent false alarms like this one, and everyone believes that the scientists are only in it for the money/fame/or lack of reality.

Again much like coverage of hurricanes on the Gulf Coast. You have enough Hurricane Lily's(remember that one in the early 00's?) that peter out before hitting Louisiana and no one believes it until a Katrina comes along and wallops you.

UNT90 · April 30, 2009

I'm not really worried about this either. I am about the "real" pandemic and no one takes it seriously because of apparent false alarms like this one, and everyone believes that the scientists are only in it for the money/fame/or lack of reality.
Again much like coverage of hurricanes on the Gulf Coast. You have enough Hurricane Lily's(remember that one in the early 00's?) that peter out before hitting Louisiana and no one believes it until a Katrina comes along and wallops you.

So maybe they shouldn't get everyone so alarmed over the FLU . I don't think it is the scientific community at all. I think they simple say, "Hey, there is a flu epidemic coming" and the politicians, idiot news reporters, and research hounds do all the rest.

By the way, the city of Ft. Worth cancelled Mayfest because of 10 cases of this stuff! TEN!!! It will cost the organizers over $500,000 dollars.

Idoit, overreacting politicians!

And they probably don't even like Bacon!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited April 30, 2009 by UNT90

oldguystudent · May 1, 2009

And they probably don't even like Bacon!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I vow to double the portion of bacon on my hot dogs now.

CMJ · May 1, 2009

The problem is that scientists don't know how dangerous this flu is/was when they start announcing warnings. It's a double edged sword like was mentioned earlier. If you wait for massive levels of death before trying to control the spread, you might as well do nothing at all. The odds are that any given possible pandemic is going to turn out to not be exceptionally dangerous. These sorts of measures are designed to catch those rare cases that are.

It's a damned if you, damned if you don't thing. SARS has been mentioned earlier in several threads in a flippant sort of way. Thankfully that virus was very hard to transmit person to person(unlike something like the flu, which is very easily spread) - because the fatality rate was much higher than anything we've seen. Even though there were only something like 750 deaths, only about 7500 cases world wide were found. So basically if you caught it - you had a one in ten chance of death. That is way higher than the normal flu(about .06%) or even the deadly 1918 flu(which was around 3%).

Say what you will, but the scientific community had good reason to be quite concerned about that one.

Edited May 1, 2009 by CMJ

MeanGreenZen · May 1, 2009

I wouldn't alter your life at all unless you are an ailing plus 60 year old or a child under 6 (or care for the same), or you care for people of this age.

Uh...actually people with strong immune systems are most at-risk. This virus kills via a cytokine storm (overreaction of the body's immune system) which explains its unusually severe nature and the concentrated age profile of its victims. The strong immune systems of young adults ravage the body, whereas the weaker immune systems of children and middle-aged adults cause fewer deaths.

My family is taking this flu VERY seriously.

BeanCounterGrad'03 · May 1, 2009

So what exactly do they think all these kids will do during the time off, especially the high school kids?

Don't worry...the swine flu is not a sexually transmitted disease.

UNT90 · May 1, 2009

Uh...actually people with strong immune systems are most at-risk. This virus kills via a cytokine storm (overreaction of the body's immune system) which explains its unusually severe nature and the concentrated age profile of its victims. The strong immune systems of young adults ravage the body, whereas the weaker immune systems of children and middle-aged adults cause fewer deaths.
My family is taking this flu VERY seriously.

Thats how come the only death in Texas was a 2 year old. I would love to know the age, pre-existing health conditions, and living conditions fo those infected, along with the seriousness of thier symptoms. But, alas, none of that on the news (Darn HIPPA!!....don't want to get banned)

I'll let y'all know how I'm feeling when I get back from a very relaxing, and hopefully sparsely crowded, Memorial day trip to Cancun.

I hear the bacon is served by the beach!

More proof of overreaction:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090501/ap_on_...swine_flu_virus

Dr. Peter Palese, a leading flu researcher at New York's Mount Sinai Medical School, said the new virus appeared to be similar enough to other common flu strains that "we probably all have some type of immunity."

"There is no real reason to believe this is a more serious strain," he said.

Edited May 1, 2009 by UNT90

Smitty · May 1, 2009

A note on this: there is an email going around (when is there not?) about a doctor in south Texas saying things are much worse than we've been hearing. Apparently the doctor in question is real but his message has been overblown and has been edited and added to with each passing posting. The good doctor is scrambling to put things right:

An email has been circulating the globe with my name on it. Unfortunately, that email is a very modified version of an email I sent to close friends and family, and it contains additions and modifications that I did not write. Many are using it in support of their own diverse agendas. If you heard my email read on the Alex Jones Show, know that it may not be what I wrote, and it was done without my knowledge or permission. I am justifiably upset, but here should be only one agenda right now, and that is appropriately responding to this public health situation. To contact me, do not call my hospital, or anyone else I am affiliated with. Please email me, as directed below.
Cordially,
Marcus L. Gitterle, MD

Here is a link to a story from one of those websites that tracks down viral emails and tries to find the truth behind these stories:

Swine Flu Update from Dr. Gitterle

I feel sorry for the doctor. He probably sent an email to friends and family with some helpful suggestions, it got passed on, and others ran with it and wrote that the possibilities of this situation are already starting to become reality.

UNTnewbie · May 1, 2009

Found out this afternoon LISD (Lewisville ISD) is closing down all of next week and is being supported in its decision by the Denton County Health Department.

Official Letter PDF - English - http://www.lisd.net/communications/site_me...osingletter.pdf

Just waiting to see if Lake Dallas and Denton follow suit. Sounds like an LISD Admin read the good Dr.'s letter. This just gets Crazier every day!!

Edited May 1, 2009 by UNTnewbie

MeanGreenEagle · May 1, 2009

Come on baby, shut down UNT!

NT80 · May 2, 2009

Looks like all the media hype about the "end of the world" is about to be quashed. This flu is seen as no more potent than regular flu....

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/MED...EMPLATE=DEFAULT

Edited May 2, 2009 by NT80

UNT90 · May 2, 2009

Looks like all the media hype about the "end of the world" is about to be quashed. This flu is seen as no more potent than regular flu....
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/MED...EMPLATE=DEFAULT

So, I guess the sky isn't falling after all. Sad thing is, I can see people in the future being skepitical of something that is truely dangerous.

Due to the medical advances in the last 50 years, I doubt we will ever really have to worry about a serious pandemic in tis country. Now, if health care is socialized, all bets are off!