Vito On Unt 09 Football Schedule

[eulessismore]

Vito's thoughts on the schedule

[Mean Green 93-98]

Pretty cut and dry. I like the schedule, but if we're not a good deal better than last year, I don't see a single "gimme" win. Ohio and FAU should serve as a gauge for how the season will go.

[eulessismore]

Pretty cut and dry. I like the schedule, but if we're not a good deal better than last year, I don't see a single "gimme" win. Ohio and FAU should serve as a gauge for how the season will go.

I thought it was interesting what he said about Ball State and their running back. It sounds like our defense should get tested right away, especially on stopping the run. I agree that nothing can be taken for granted; I do count myself among those to consider that game winnable, based on them looking about the same as we did against Tulsa last year.

[Mean Green 93-98]

I thought it was interesting what he said about Ball State and their running back. It sounds like our defense should get tested right away, especially on stopping the run. I agree that nothing can be taken for granted; I do count myself among those to consider that game winnable, based on them looking about the same as we did against Tulsa last year.

Ball St. vs. Tulsa Box Score

UNT vs. Tulsa Box Score

I don't know if that's a fair comparison. Ball St. kept it close for a while before Tulsa ran away with it in the 2nd half. We were well out of that game before halftime.

I will say that statistically we were more competitive. But touchdown differential seems to be our biggest statistical difficulty--and that's a pretty important one.

Edited March 26, 2009 by Mean Green 93-98

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

To me, it will all hingle upon Ohio and FAU.

Ohio is an opportunity to match up with another mid-major. They ran and threw it at about a 50/50 ratio last. So, we will see whether or not both the run and pass defense have improved at all. Plus, it's a home game. If Dodge doesn't have the squad jacked up for the home opener - and, he didn't against Tulsa last year - it's a bad sign.

FAU lost almost all of it's defense to graduation. They'll be sporting eight new starters, including all three linebackers. If we can't move the ball versus FAU's virtually brand new defense, it will be a harbinger of tougher times against the more experienced defenses. On the other side of the ball, FAU returns eight of offense. If we can stop their offense, that will be a good sign. Although, not stopping them wouldn't necessarily be a bad sign. FAU does move the ball well against most teams, SBC or not.

In short, September 2009 will be the barometer of the overall health of the program. You can cite off the field improvement all you want (and, even that's a sketchy argument at this point). But, if we see the same old, same old in September and are limping into October 0-4? Then, it will be time to call church on the Dodge experiment, and possibly Rick Villareal as well, and get down to getting people in place who can truly take the program upward without all of the hush, hush and wait, wait, wait.

Personally, I'd view 1-3 with close losses to Ball State and Ohio as progress. If we're 2-2, I think we'll be competing for the Sun Belt crown. Unlike many others here, I expect the leadership of any type of turn around to come from the defensive side of the ball and special teams since that's where the bulk of our college coaching staff lies.

[Charlie NT 73]

Read 97and03's posting about FAU.

Yes, according to the article, the FAU 's defense will lose 8

defensive starters, 3 LB's, 2 safeties, 1 CB, 1 DT.

For the team, 22 seniors are gone.

For the offense, QB Rusty Smith and all the top receivers return.

Both TE's, LY's starting RB are gone, and 1 OL player.

The article also states the coaches are "tinkering with the

OL", which really does not mean alot.

Losing 22 seniors does mean something, as well as losing 8 defensive

starters. FAU must make alot of personell changes this spring.

FAU will be the 4th NT game of the season.

I agree with Fake Lonnie, this game is important.

If NT can compete with Ball State, win the Ohio game, and

not get blasted by Bama, NT just may be able to beat FAU

this season. The NT offense may be able to take advantage

of the new FAU defense. If our defense shapes up, and is

able to contain Rusty Smith, the match up might work out.

I would take a 2-2 record, with a SBC win, to start

the SBC race.

[UNT Mean Green]

Read 97and03's posting about FAU.

Yes, according to the article, the FAU 's defense will lose 8

defensive starters, 3 LB's, 2 safeties, 1 CB, 1 DT.

For the team, 22 seniors are gone.

For the offense, QB Rusty Smith and all the top receivers return.

Both TE's, LY's starting RB are gone, and 1 OL player.

The article also states the coaches are "tinkering with the

OL", which really does not mean alot.

Losing 22 seniors does mean something, as well as losing 8 defensive

starters. FAU must make alot of personell changes this spring.

FAU will be the 4th NT game of the season.

I agree with Fake Lonnie, this game is important.

If NT can compete with Ball State, win the Ohio game, and

not get blasted by Bama, NT just may be able to beat FAU

this season. The NT offense may be able to take advantage

of the new FAU defense. If our defense shapes up, and is

able to contain Rusty Smith, the match up might work out.

I would take a 2-2 record, with a SBC win, to start

the SBC race.

How many years of eligibility does Rusty Smith have? Goodness gracious he's been there forever.

Like the schedule, and think there are some barometer games like people have mentioned. I really hope we can win the majority of conference games. I also hope for a flyover for the Army game!

[TIgreen01]

I am not as impressed with Ball St. as many seem to be. They were on tv quite a bit last year, and without that QB (who left for the NFL) that team doesn't go. Throw in the fact that the Head Coach also left during the offseason and I think THIS is the game we have the best chance to win in the first 4 games. Ohio still has Frank Solich on the sidelines and they are a VERY physical team. That will be the team (with the obvious exception of Alabama) that challenges our new dline the most.

[UNTflyer]

But touchdown differential seems to be our biggest statistical difficulty--and that's a pretty important one.

Yeah, in the game of football the team that scores the most touchdowns will usually win.

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

I am not as impressed with Ball St. as many seem to be. They were on tv quite a bit last year, and without that QB (who left for the NFL) that team doesn't go. Throw in the fact that the Head Coach also left during the offseason and I think THIS is the game we have the best chance to win in the first 4 games. Ohio still has Frank Solich on the sidelines and they are a VERY physical team. That will be the team (with the obvious exception of Alabama) that challenges our new dline the most.

Ball State's new head coach was their offensive coordinator, so it's not like they picked up someone new off the streets. The offense is the same; he's been there five years now. The leading rusher and receiver are back, as well as the starting tight end. The QB will probably be the guy who is a fifth year senior who has spent his entire college career in the new coach's offense.

This is a road game that will not be easy, and is probably not winnable. Ball State does return a bulk of their playmakers on both sides of the ball. It's not like FAU where almost the entire defense is gone. It's also not the new coach's first time as a head football coach. He's got a winning record as a I-A coach. Ball State will be fine. Ohio and FAU are the most realistically winnable September games for us. If we don't at least compete well against those two, we're in for another 1-3 win season as it has been for the past four years.

[nautique]

Army and Ohio are wins. We will do well against them. ULM and ULL should be games that are very possible to win. Other than that, we are going to have to play some damn good football.

[UNT90]

It seems people are forgetting last season. There are 0, Zip, Nada, Nil, Nolo sure wins on this schedule. Not even WKU at home.

No experienced QB, no experienced playmaker at WR. 119th rank defense in D1A. Close to the worst special teams in D1A.

Not being negative, just trying to bring some reality to the situation. When you see Nautique predicting 2-4 wins next year, you know the off-season optimism has gotten out of hand!!

Edited March 27, 2009 by UNT90

[GoMeanGreen1999]

It seems people are forgetting last season. There are 0, Zip, Nada, Nil, Nolo sure wins on this schedule. Not even WKU at home.

No experienced QB, no experienced playmaker at WR. 119th rank defense in D1A. Close to the worst special teams in D1A.

Not being negative, just trying to bring some reality to the situation. When you see Nautique predicting 2-4 wins next year, you know the off-season optimism has gotten out of hand!!

Before I see this team in the first game be miles ahead of where this team finished, I have to agree with you. I think a lot of folks are thinking that RD will just come in and pick up where Vizza left off.

[TIgreen01]

Before I see this team in the first game be miles ahead of where this team finished, I have to agree with you. I think a lot of folks are thinking that RD will just come in and pick up where Vizza left off.

No. I think he'll be better than Vizza. Call me crazy. There are going to be things that Riley doesn't do as well as Vizza, and he'll probably make his share of "freshman" mistakes, but he's going to bring another dimension to the offense with his running ability. Not to mention that he's more accurate with his throws than Vizza was.

That said, I agree that it's hard to predict wins and losses for this team. That's mostly b/c our defense and special teams were so horrendously bad the last 2 seasons. Until we actually see them improving on the field, it's probably best to steer clear of calling any game a "win" at this point. That doesn't mean that we can't still break down the schedule and the opponents...and hope to find the best chance at getting wins.

[Charlie NT 73]

Defense starts in the trenches!

Being a starter now, does not mean these players will start at game time.

Going into the fall, the starting DL may look like this.

DE, Tevinn Cantley, 6-4, 300+

DT, Draylen Ross, 6-4, 300+

DT, Jesse Desoto, 6-1, 300+

DE, Eddrick Gilmore, 6-6, 270 +/-

On top of that, the JUCO's come in.

DT, Shavod Atkinson, 6-2, 300

DT, Kelvin Jackson, 6-3, 320

DE, John Weber, 6-3, 265

And NT will have DE's Russo, Sykes, Owusu-Hemng, and Cole back, each were in the rotation LY.

Charlie Brown, returns back to the DE position.

DT's, will return Franklin, and Stewart, who played in the rotation LY, and newcomer Joe Hawthorne.

True freshman, Kyle White, 6-2, 318, arrives in the fall. Maybe Red shirt year in 09?

This group of DL players will make a difference in 09. Experience, size, speed, depth, and true position

rotations! Add in DL Coach Nelson and DC Gary DeLoach, plus a summer of training under S/C Coach Asumus,

this adds up to succes in my book!

[foutsrouts]

Defense starts in the trenches!

Being a starter now, does not mean these players will start at game time.

Going into the fall, the starting DL may look like this.

DE, Tevinn Cantley, 6-4, 300+

DT, Draylen Ross, 6-4, 300+

DT, Jesse Desoto, 6-1, 300+

DE, Eddrick Gilmore, 6-6, 270 +/-

On top of that, the JUCO's come in.

DT, Shavod Atkinson, 6-2, 300

DT, Kelvin Jackson, 6-3, 320

DE, John Weber, 6-3, 265

And NT will have DE's Russo, Sykes, Owusu-Hemng, and Cole back, each were in the rotation LY.

Charlie Brown, returns back to the DE position.

DT's, will return Franklin, and Stewart, who played in the rotation LY, and newcomer Joe Hawthorne.

True freshman, Kyle White, 6-2, 318, arrives in the fall. Maybe Red shirt year in 09?

This group of DL players will make a difference in 09. Experience, size, speed, depth, and true position

rotations! Add in DL Coach Nelson and DC Gary DeLoach, plus a summer of training under S/C Coach Asumus,

this adds up to succes in my book!

I agree. I like the look of our lines on both sides of the ball this year. My question is, will our younger linebackers and our corners finally reach their potential this year? If they do, this defense could be surprisingly good. As far as offense is concerned, I guess we'll just have to wait and see how well Riley and his receivers can hook up. I like the look of the RB's and the OL. I'm not even going to mention special teams since they couldn't even compete with Denton High School's the last couple of years. We shall see.

[TIgreen01]

Ball State's new head coach was their offensive coordinator, so it's not like they picked up someone new off the streets. The offense is the same; he's been there five years now. The leading rusher and receiver are back, as well as the starting tight end. The QB will probably be the guy who is a fifth year senior who has spent his entire college career in the new coach's offense.

This is a road game that will not be easy, and is probably not winnable. Ball State does return a bulk of their playmakers on both sides of the ball. It's not like FAU where almost the entire defense is gone. It's also not the new coach's first time as a head football coach. He's got a winning record as a I-A coach. Ball State will be fine. Ohio and FAU are the most realistically winnable September games for us. If we don't at least compete well against those two, we're in for another 1-3 win season as it has been for the past four years.

If Ball St. has a 5th year senior anywhere near the quality of what Tulsa had last year (they lost their stud QB the year before last and used a 5th year senior last season--and he turned out to be a stud) then you might be right. I still think that's a big hole to fill and that they will certainly not be as good this coming season as they were last year.