How Low, How Low, How Low Can It Go?

oldguystudent · March 2, 2009

I'm looking at the Dow sitting at 6786 right now. I believe a big part of this precipitous drop is a result of fear more than it is a result of business fundamentals. Conversely, I believe that the 13,000 mark (or wherever it peaked) was a result of bubble-riders with no sense of sustainability.

So now that fear is rampant, the TV says the world is ending, we're falling into Stalinesque socialism, the dollar will be more valuable to us as toilet paper than currency (This is good for global warming!), and we'll all be speaking Chinese before the close of the next decade, how low can this whole stock thing go?

Good thing I spent all my money on UNT before my stocks could drop. Now I've just got the kid's college fund and my IRA wrapped up in this, and both of those have plenty of time to recover. I am therefore gleefully sitting on the sidelines of all this wondering just how much people can panic.

Oldguy "I'll trade you a pack of Wrigley's doublemint gum for a hundred shares of AIG" student

UNT90 · March 2, 2009

My uneducated guess is the Dow goes to 5000. I also see unemployment at 12 -15 %, interest rates eventually in double digits, along with inflation.

Very uneducated guess.

yyz28 · March 3, 2009

The market is reacting to what is being done by your friendly federal government. People who actually run businesses and understand the business world understand that what the Government is doing to fix this problem is only making it worse.

Out of control Government spending is going to cause inflation.

There is now no doubt that everyone's taxes are going up - the decreases in deductions in the new budget is going to wipe the $13 a week right off the radar for most tax payers.

We're about to raise taxes on what capital might be left in the system.

We've depressed interest rates to where banks can't make any money even if they want to lend it out.

Mark to Market is still fubar.

The Nationalization of the banks is diluting private wealth.

Welcome to the Change you all voted for... oh, yes. This is MUCH better. :rolleyes:

UNTflyer · March 3, 2009

I plan to wait it out a few more weeks and start putting in my buy orders. Soon I will be the biggest man in the world, and covered in 14 KT gold.

GoMeanGreen1999 · March 3, 2009

The market is reacting to what is being done by your friendly federal government. People who actually run businesses and understand the business world understand that what the Government is doing to fix this problem is only making it worse.
Out of control Government spending is going to cause inflation.
There is now no doubt that everyone's taxes are going up - the decreases in deductions in the new budget is going to wipe the $13 a week right off the radar for most tax payers.
We're about to raise taxes on what capital might be left in the system.
We've depressed interest rates to where banks can't make any money even if they want to lend it out.
Mark to Market is still fubar.
The Nationalization of the banks is diluting private wealth.
Welcome to the Change you all voted for... oh, yes. This is MUCH better.

You mean all of the HOPE and CHANGE isn't working?

oldguystudent · March 3, 2009

I happened to look up AIG stock this evening, and my offer of a pack of gum for 100 shares wasn't too far off. 100 shares of AIG runs you a whopping $42 right now. Steal!