Texas

Quoner · December 2, 2008

Also, there are rumors that Will Muschamp is working with Mizzou to help their defense and Colt and Chase are having one hour conversations about the Sooners together. Good times. God bless the BCS.

Also, if the Big 12 championship is the JV bowl, where does Tech get to play?

LongJim · December 2, 2008

Also, if the Big 12 championship is the JV bowl, where does Tech get to play?

Sucks for Tech, doesn't it? Best season in school history. Perfect storm against Texas. Potential Heisman winners. Welcome to the Cotton Bowl.

Censored by Laurie · December 2, 2008

http://jvbowl.com/
Also, there are rumors that Will Muschamp is working with Mizzou to help their defense and Colt and Chase are having one hour conversations about the Sooners together. Good times. God bless the BCS.
Also, if the Big 12 championship is the JV bowl, where does Tech get to play?

Such tired-head. I love the argument used in this for justification that UT has played a tougher schedule...somehow just playing 4 mediocre teams is better than only playing 2 top 15 teams...and arguably the worst team in the country w/o a cardinal direction in it's name.

All this bitching and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see UT backdoor its way into the national title game

December 2, 2008

Such tired-head. I love the argument used in this for justification that UT has played a tougher schedule...somehow just playing 4 mediocre teams is better than only playing 2 top 15 teams...and arguably the worst team in the country w/o a cardinal direction in it's name.
All this bitching and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see UT backdoor its way into the national title game

Since I root for chaos, I hope OU loses and Bama loses. Then we could see the SEC non-champ and Big12 non-champ play for the BCS championship. Are my numbers in order?

Green Mean · December 2, 2008

All this bitching and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see UT backdoor its way into the national title game

Well if the BCS believes and practices the open door policy then UT still has a shot.

LongJim · December 2, 2008

All this bitching and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see UT backdoor its way into the national title game

Exactly. Plus they'll probably be whining about how they were jobbed on message boards twenty years from now.

Quoner · December 2, 2008

Since I root for chaos, I hope OU loses and Bama loses. Then we could see the SEC non-champ and Big12 non-champ play for the BCS championship. Are my numbers in order?

One item/question - The Bama and Florida game is basically a semifinal, so the SEC winner will get in pretty much regardless, right? The chaos can only come from one side.

I really wish they could just replace Mizzou with OU and let them play Texas one last time.

LongJim · December 2, 2008

Since I root for chaos, I hope OU loses and Bama loses. Then we could see the SEC non-champ and Big12 non-champ play for the BCS championship. Are my numbers in order?

Yes, it is possible. Not probable, however.

Censored by Laurie · December 2, 2008

Should be USC vs. Tech

December 2, 2008

One item/question - The Bama and Florida game is basically a semifinal, so the SEC winner will get in pretty much regardless, right? The chaos can only come from one side.
I really wish they could just replace Mizzou with OU and let them play Texas one last time.

I see the err in my thinking. SEC champ would go on regardless. True. Damn.

Eagle1855 · December 2, 2008

Exactly. Plus they'll probably be whining about how they were jobbed on message boards twenty years from now.

i see what you did there. and I approve of it.

LongJim · December 2, 2008

I see the err in my thinking. SEC champ would go on regardless. True. Damn.

Nope. Believe it or not, there are scenarios calling for a less-than-impressive UF win over Bama. In this scenario, 0U and Texas slide to 1 and 2:

"A win over the Tide will help the Gators' computer rankings, but it's unlikely to put them ahead of either UT or OU in the computer scores. So if the voters split their votes three ways among Texas, Oklahoma and Florida, then the Gators will be the odd team out."

I'd put an 0U/Texas title game at less than %3 probability, but as we all know--stranger things have happened.

Lots of intrigue this Saturday. It ain't over yet.

Link

TheTastyGreek · December 2, 2008

If Alabama loses, my national championship game has Utah taking on Boise State.

Quoner · December 2, 2008

Nope. Believe it or not, there are scenarios calling for a less-than-impressive UF win over Bama. In this scenario, 0U and Texas slide to 1 and 2:
"A win over the Tide will help the Gators' computer rankings, but it's unlikely to put them ahead of either UT or OU in the computer scores. So if the voters split their votes three ways among Texas, Oklahoma and Florida, then the Gators will be the odd team out."
I'd put an 0U/Texas title game at less than %3 probability, but as we all know--stranger things have happened.
Lots of intrigue this Saturday. It ain't over yet.
Link

True - I'm basically going on precedent from the Florida/FSU and Michigan/Ohio State game a few years ago, but in that case, they had both just played each other. I think most people will get in line with any kind of Gator win and tell us how good SEC defenses are (which to be fair, Bama's is pretty freaking good.) I don't think style points matter in this game, but you are right, way stranger things have happened.

LongJim · December 2, 2008

True - I'm basically going on precedent from the Florida/FSU and Michigan/Ohio State game a few years ago, but in that case, they had both just played each other. I think most people will get in line with any kind of Gator win and tell us how good SEC defenses are (which to be fair, Bama's is pretty freaking good.)

I agree. One thing to remember is that the BCS "formula" "has" changed since those games.

Obviously Texas fans want a Mizzou win desperately, but the more I look at projections, I think UF has to win big over Bama to make enough dent in the computer to go, and it'll be close either way--particularly if an 0U win isn't 'impressive' enough. 0U wins comfortably--they're in. Bama--in if they win.

Quoner · December 2, 2008

i see what you did there. and I approve of it.

Wow, I totally missed it the first time.

+15 to LJ

LongJim · December 2, 2008

Matt Hinton from BCS Realpolitik (Rivals) wrote this on Sunday:

****************************************************************

BCS Realpolitik--"Oklahoma it is, but a new route to chaos from the Gator-hater computers"

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season.

Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

As predicted, the machines bit hard for Oklahoma's win over Oklahoma State, despite the paper-thin finish in the human polls: Oklahoma finished one measly point ahead of Texas for No. 2 in the Coaches' poll, 1,397 points to 1,396, and just six points back of the Longhorns in the Harris poll, whose members were apparently swayed enough by the Horns' "45-35" sloganeering to move UT back in front of the Sooners, 2,575 points to 2,569. If you had to pick a winner in the human polls, by the narrowest possible margins, it's probably Texas. But essentially, it's a tie.

It's not as close according to the computers: Oklahoma took three first-place votes from the machines to only one for Texas (which was subsequently dropped from UT's average as the high score) and finished in front of the Longhorns in four out of six computer ballots. The Sooners are headed to the Big 12 Championship game because of the computers, and it has nothing to do with "style points" -- the algorithms aren't even allowed to note OU's gaping point totals or margins of victory. If the conference schedule was basically a wash, I have to think the difference was strictly Oklahoma's non-conference wins over a pair of top-20 teams, TCU and Cincinnati, which were vastly better than Texas' best out-of-conference wins, over Arkansas and Rice.

This is simultaneously fair to Oklahoma and unfair to Texas, and also not the most interesting result of this week's effort. Take a look at the computer averages: Alabama ranks third, behind the 'Horns and Sooners, and the Tide were ranked fourth or fifth by three out of the six machines (again, strength of schedule, people. Think twice about those body bag games with Tulane and Western Kentucky). In the same vein, an email from a worried Florida voter popped up this morning in my inbox for the second time in just a few days:

"UF is still #6 in Sagarin's rankings today, and not really anywhere close to #5 Utah. How sure ARE we that the computers will jump UF up after playing a 13th game? And how sure are we that if they don't, even a #1 ranking from the humans would be enough to keep UF #2 ahead of the Big 12 South runner-up? I would like someone somewhere to run through this with more than just a "Florida and Alabama in a semi-final" bit of "analysis.""

This is a great point that I'm not sure I would have considered otherwise, and that most people are overlooking in their rush to deem Alabama-Florida the winner-take-all primer for the mythical championship. That's certainly true for Alabama if it finishes 13-0, and I assume it's true for Florida in the human polls if the Gators take the mighty SEC at 12-1. But the computers? That's not so certain.

My concerned emailer is right: Florida's highest rank in any of the six computer polls is third (Richard Billingsley); after that UF is fouth, sixth, sixth, sixth and seventh, respectively. Compare that with Texas, who is second, third, fourth, first, third, and second, respectively, in the Sagarin, A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, and Wolfe computer rankings.

There is at least three positions difference between the Horns and Gators in every computer poll except Richard Billingsley's. So how much is beating Alabama -- which, again, comes into the game ranked behind Texas and Oklahoma in the computer average -- worth? The humans are all but guaranteed to vote Florida into the championship with a win Saturday, any kind of win. But will it be worth enough in the computer polls (I'm thinking at least two positions per computer) to close that very wide gap with Texas? That's a shaky guess.

Chaos is not Missouri upsetting Oklahoma; in fact, that's very clean: Texas will play the SEC champion, whoever it is. Chaos is Florida beating Alabama, and still missing out because the computers are set on an OU-Texas rematch."

LINK

Edited December 2, 2008 by LongJim