Bcs Craziness

emmitt01 · November 10, 2008

So the BCS standings came out today. They are as follows:

1)Bama

2)Texas Tech

3)TU

4)Florida

5)OU

6)USC

7)Utah

Now let's look at how things could get hinky. We'll assume that USC wins out like they should.

Tech and OU have this next week off. Bama plays Miss State. UT plays Kansas. Let's assume they both win. Florida plays South Carolina and we can assume they'll win. Everything stays the same at the top.

The week of 11/22 Tech plays OU. Let's assume for arguments sake that OU wins. That same week UT plays aTm on Thanksgiving night. Let's assume they win. Bama is off. Florida gets the Citadel and should roll. So, that week could easily end with Bama #1, UT #2, OU #3 Florida #4 and Tech falling to #5...or maybe #6 if USC moves up.

Ok, the week of 11/29 rolls around. UT is done with their season and sitting at #2 having played aTm on that Thursday. Bama plays Auburn in their rivalry game. Auburn hasn't looked near good enough to beat Bama so let's give Bama the edge. Tech plays Baylor and we'll give them the win...but a win at Baylor isn't all that impressive. Florida should beat Florida State. OU plays OkState. What if OU loses this game?(It's conceivable) Well you conceivably end this week with Bama still #1, UT #2, Florida at #3, USC #4, Tech #5, and OU #6.

Ok so the Big XII season is over with UT at #2, Tech at #5 and OU at #6. OU has two conference losses. UT and Tech each have one. So, OU is out of the Big XII south champion discussion. UT is ranked higher in the BCS than Tech but doesn't go to the Big XII title game by virtue of the head to head tie-breaker. Uh oh. So your Big XII south champion is potentially ranked lower than the team they beat during the regular season.

Now the real madness. Bama plays Florida on 12/6 for the SEC title. The winner of this game would end the regular season in either the #1 or #2 spot and would be lined up to play UT in the national title game. (Bama wins they stay at #1 and Florida falls to #6 or so...Florida wins and they move up to #2 probably and Bama goes to 4,5, or 6)

You may be thinking, "Emmitt, it's no big deal because if Tech wins the Big XII title game they vault into the national title game." But do they? Would Mack Brown whine to the media to "take control of college football" again...and would it work? Would a 1 loss USC team move into the title game since they lost early and would be looking pretty impressive to end the season? What about Bama? Their only loss is in the SEC title game...should they get another shot?

Bottom line is that this thing could play out so many goofy ways (a few of which could call for a Tech/UT rematch or a Florida/Bama rematch). And if voters voted in a manner which ensures that you don't have an all SEC or all Big XII national title game then they'd have to ignore actual strength of schedule or quality losses/wins.

BeanCounterGrad'03 · November 10, 2008

Nothing personal against you wanting to start some BCS talk, but I'm not wasting much time worrying about these senarios until there is a decent (i.e. 8+ team) playoff system implemented.

That being said...I'm rooting for the underdog Tech to go all the way.

GangGreen · November 10, 2008

The only problem with USC is, if Oregon St. wins out, OSU goes BCS.

CMJ · November 10, 2008

We'll see what happens. I expect it to be the SEC champ vs the Big XII champ no matter the outcome.

Granted I think USC is the best team right now, but they have no argument really with their loss to Oregon State in a down year for the Pac-10.

GoMeanGreen1999 · November 10, 2008

And you could have all three of UT, TT and OU finishing in the top 8 of the BCS, but because of the stupid BCS rules only two of them could go to a BCS game with one of them being left out, meanwhile no team in the Big East is ranked, yet they have an automatic bid into the BCS.

The musers brought this up this morning: Top ranked defense in the Big 12 this season: OU, ranked #51.

Eagle1855 · November 10, 2008

What's even crazier is you could quite possibly have 4 Big 12 South teams with 10+ wins. I don't think I've ever seen that in a conference, much less one division of a conference.

CMJ · November 10, 2008

The musers brought this up this morning: Top ranked defense in the Big 12 this season: OU, ranked #51.

Which is why I think USC is the best team right now. The reputation of the Pac-10 is all offense, no defense...wide open, blah, blah.

USC hads given up 60 points for the season. So, less than a touchdown per game in the supposedly all offense Pac-10.

TheTastyGreek · November 10, 2008

My BCS Championship has Utah taking on Boise State.

greenminer · November 10, 2008

My BCS Championship has Utah taking on Boise State.

I have 9 different simulation models, with 8 of them plaingy out to this scenario. So I am going to have to agree with you.

Utah 32 - BSU 30

CMJ · November 10, 2008

Unfortunately I think too much has to happen to thrust Utah or Boise up that high. I could see Utah getting up as far as 4/5 though.

UNT_playmaker · November 10, 2008

Good Analysis Emmitt... I was thinking about alot of the scenarios you played out.... I do think that Tech will fall to OU in Norman....

Also I think USC is alot better than what people give them credit for.

THOR · November 10, 2008

Well, twice teams have failed to win the Big 12 yet still played in the national championship game.
From Wikipedia (I know, I know): In 2001 Nebraska played Miami (Florida), after losing to Colorado during the regular season and, therefore, did not play in the Big 12 Conference Championship game. In 2003 Oklahoma played LSU despite losing to Kansas State 35-7 in the Big 12 Conference title game.

didn't they change the rule a while back about having to win your conference championship in order to go to the bcs title game?

Quoner · November 10, 2008

Good Analysis Emmitt... I was thinking about alot of the scenarios you played out.... I do think that Tech will fall to OU in Norman....
Also I think USC is alot better than what people give them credit for.

I decided out of shame, I will not pick against Tech anymore this year. I also am proud to still call Red Raider Gum my best friend.

GoMeanGreen1999 · November 10, 2008

didn't they change the rule a while back about having to win your conference championship in order to go to the bcs title game?

I thought this too, but I can't seem to find anything that says they did.

CMJ · November 10, 2008

They didn't make a rule...but I think it's sort of expected now that the voters will vault a conference champion over a school that isn't.

Like LSU moved over Georgia last season in the Final Poll.

UNTFan23 · November 11, 2008

Which is why I think USC is the best team right now. The reputation of the Pac-10 is all offense, no defense...wide open, blah, blah.
USC hads given up 60 points for the season. So, less than a touchdown per game in the supposedly all offense Pac-10.

See, I can't call USC the best team out there cause they lost to an un-ranked Oregon State team. What hurts USC even more is that Utah beat OSU a couple weeks later. I almost expect Utah to jump past USC since Utah has yet to play BYU.

CMJ · November 11, 2008

See, I can't call USC the best team out there cause they lost to an un-ranked Oregon State team. What hurts USC even more is that Utah beat OSU a couple weeks later. I almost expect Utah to jump past USC since Utah has yet to play BYU.

Of course OSU lost on the road to Utah.

And OSU is ranked in acouple of the polls now, though not in the BCS as of yet.

I wouldn't RANK USC as #1...I just think they're probably the best team RIGHT NOW. Texas Tech or Alabama definitely deserve their rankings though because they haven't slipped up.

NT80 · November 11, 2008

My hope is that the BCS is a mess and there are many unhappy fans, coaches, and ADs.

Enough madness to scrap this human-manipulated computer poll and take it to the field for a true playoff, 32 teams of course!

untbowler · November 11, 2008

Well funny to hear the hypocrite Bob Stoops railing on the BCS when it saved his ass when he choked in the Big 12 Championship as well as helped Nebraska in 2000 or so. For any coach in the Big 12 to complain about inequities in the BCS is just plain funny and hypocritical.

LongJim · November 11, 2008

You may be thinking, "Emmitt, it's no big deal because if Tech wins the Big XII title game they vault into the national title game." But do they?

Yes. If they win out, they will play for the MNC. If they don't, then their 2 games against 1AA schools will hurt them in the computers and in the human polls--as they should.

Would a 1 loss USC team move into the title game since they lost early and would be looking pretty impressive to end the season?

No, because their strength of schedule is not high enough, and they got owned by an unranked team at home. Voters aren't going to forget it. The two teams to watch (IMO) are Tech and Florida. Harris and USA Today have Florida #3. Computers don't like them as much, but if they knock off Bama, all bets are off. Texas needs help, and USC needs a LOT of help.

THOR · November 11, 2008

Yes. If they win out, they will play for the MNC. If they don't, then their 2 games against 1AA schools will hurt them in the computers and in the human polls--as they should.
No, because their strength of schedule is not high enough, and they got owned by an unranked team at home. Voters aren't going to forget it. The two teams to watch (IMO) are Tech and Florida. Harris and USA Today have Florida #3. Computers don't like them as much, but if they knock off Bama, all bets are off. Texas needs help, and USC needs a LOT of help.

sc lost at oregon state, not at home

TIgreen01 · November 11, 2008

I used to favor a playoff scenario, but have absolutely no faith that we'd ever be given access. Therefore, I hope this plays out in a fairly civilized manner. I think a +1 game would be the best option out there right now b/c I truly don't believe you'd ever see a playoff with more than 8 teams invited--which would ultimately just seed teams under a similar formula to what the current BCS uses.

Now...if by some miracle, a playoff that allowed each conference champion access were to come about.....I'd definitely like to see it.

emmitt01 · November 12, 2008

Yes. If they win out, they will play for the MNC. If they don't, then their 2 games against 1AA schools will hurt them in the computers and in the human polls--as they should.

No, I was asking if Tech, should they lose to OU yet still go to the Big XII title game by virtue of tie-breakers, would still make it to the national championship. I'm not so sure they would.

bflan · November 12, 2008

This is a "mythical" National Championship since there are NO playoffs. It still boggles my mind what a true 16 team (or more) playoff system could do for college football. It would make March Madness look silly.

LongJim · November 12, 2008

No, I was asking if Tech, should they lose to OU yet still go to the Big XII title game by virtue of tie-breakers, would still make it to the national championship. I'm not so sure they would.

Ah, okay. I misunderstood. I'm not positive they'd go to the B12 with a loss to OU. Three way tie then, if everyone wins out. Not sure how they'd break that tie. My personal opinion is that there is no way they will make the MNC without being undefeated. BCS bowl, yes.

Edited November 12, 2008 by LongJim