Electoral College Prediction

[UNT_playmaker]

This is how I predict Election Night on November the 4th will go down: To be Prez either candidate needs 270.

OBAMA has 264 Solid Electoral Votes: Including Iowa and New Mexico and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

OBAMA just needs to grab any tossup state such as Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, or North Carolina.

For MCCAIN to win he would need to win all of these tossup states I mentioned above.

This is my Election prediction: OBAMA: 311 MCCAIN: 227

OBAMA WINS: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia

MCCAIN WINS: Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida

If Obama wins either Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, or Ohio at 7p.m. on Nov.4, The election will be called in Obama favor early and he will win the election.

I've been following this election for a long time and made my predictions based on how certain states voted in the 2004 Electoral Outcome, states hit hardest by the economic downturns,

high african-american populations in certain states and support in toss-up states.

Another scenario that could happen is since there are a dozen battleground state scenarios and never before seen high record turnouts, then there might be a dozen potential

Florida scenarios and we wont find out who the prez is until late in the evening or after a few days. Keep in mind alot of these states are very close and it could be an intersting evening.

[UNT_playmaker]

Here are some good websites to follow the election with, for all the political junkies.

www.electoral-vote.com

www.realclearpolitics.com

www.fivethirtyeight.com

[FirefightnRick]

Here are some good websites to follow the election with, for all the political junkies.

www.electoral-vote.com

www.realclearpolitics.com

www.fivethirtyeight.com

Here are a couple of others.

Zogby has it at 5%

IBD has it at 4%

Gallup has it at 2%

Is it just me, or does it seem that every time Obama gains in the polls the stock market declines, and when McCain see's a gain the market goes up?

Nah, it's probably just me.

Rick

[JesseMartin]

There's one major flaw in a lot of these polls that has been visited previously, and I'm talking about more than the usual flaws.

In states with conservative propositions, such as anti-gay marriage ones, typically non-voting members of the public show up and vote Republican while voting on the Props. Look for a couple of "proven" Obama states to swing to McCain if they have conservative measures on the ballots.

[UNTflyer]

The only poll I believe in is the one conducted on Nov 4.

Real Clear Politics predicted Kerry would win in 2004 by a margin of 10 electoral votes.

[Censored by Laurie]

I think it will all depend on the Eastern quarter of the country...also known as the first quarter...if McCain finds himself down after the Atlantic coast closes its voting it'd probably be best for him to just shut it down and concede before the rest of the country can vote.

[Coffee and TV]

Playmaker is right on just about every point.

[UNT_playmaker]

Thank You

[KRAM1]

You think Playmaker has any bias in his "thought process"? Check out the Avatar he is now "proudly" displaying. That's what I call "Fair and Balanced" reporting...you go Playmaker!

[SUMG]

With Playmaker's track record....that explains this breaking news: Obama just conceded.

Edited October 29, 2008 by SUMG

[Coffee and TV]

You think Playmaker has any bias in his "thought process"? Check out the Avatar he is now "proudly" displaying. That's what I call "Fair and Balanced" reporting...you go Playmaker!

Bias Schmias, he spelled out his analysis and methodology. Prove him wrong.

Edited October 29, 2008 by Coffee and TV

[Mean Green 93-98]

Bias Schmias, he spelled out his analysis and methodology. Prove him wrong.

No, he did not spell out his analysis and methodology. He gave states that are leaning McCain to Obama, and states that are leaning Obama to McCain. Why?

[KRAM1]

Yep...my thoughts exactly about the "facts" stated. What facts are there to prove one way or the other? Way to go Coffee and Tea..another example of sheep following the herd! I have yet to have a conversation with a supporter of Mr. Obama who does not use the word "change" and the name "George Bush" in every explanation as to why they are favoring Mr. Obama...nothing solid as to why they think HE might make a better presiodent than Mr. McCain. Just the same rat-clap they have heard from the media over and over and over. This is not a personality contest and we are not looking to elect as our next president the guy who can read a tele-prompter better than the other guy (is it just me or have you noted a difference in Mr. Obama's "talking" when he is not reading from a prepared speech? Just wondering). And we are not electing someone because of George Bush...folks on the left...get over it! Mr. Bush's presidency is ending in January. That you can rest assured. So, do some real research about taxes, the war in Irag and Afghanistan, immigration, health care and social security reform, campaign finance reform (man, does this campaign every cry out for solid and genuine campaign finance reform), etc., etc.

Then go vote...whichever way, but at least be an informed voter! You decide...use your own intelligence and then decide. But, wait, I am sure you already have done all that...that's why you think what playmaker posted were "facts" and "research".

Predictions are worth about as much as you paid for them to read...NOTHING! remember Truman vs Dewey????? As Yogi said (I think it was Yogi...let me do a little research on that one) "It Ain't Over Until It's Over"!!!!

[UNT_playmaker]

I am an Conservative who voted for Bush in 2000 cuz he was from Texas. I am a conservative but am an independent, nor Republican or Democrat.

My favorite presdients have been Democrats, Kennedy and Carter and Republicans, Lincoln, Eisenhower, Ford.

I think my analysis is pretty decent, I think this is the way the election will go. I mean Ohio or Florida could go either way. But I think the seniors in Florida push the state towards Mccain and Ohio has been trending democratic since the Kerry election. So I put alot of thought into it.

For the record, I really like John Mccain and hoped he was the republican nominee in 2000 but Obama just makes more sense.

Edited October 30, 2008 by UNT_playmaker

[Travis]

I am an Conservative who voted for Bush in 2000 cuz here was from Texas. I am a conservative but am an independent, nor Republican or Democrat.

My favorite presdients have been Democrats, Kennedy and Carter and Republicans, Lincoln, Eisenhower, Ford.

I think my analysis is pretty decent, I think this is the way the election will go. I mean Ohio or Florida could go either way. But I think the seniors in Florida push the state towards Mccain and Ohio has been trending democratic since the Kerry election. So I put alot of thought into it.

For the record, I really like John Mccain and hoped he was the republican nominee in 2000 but Obama just makes more sense.

You can't possibly be a conservative and vote obama. Unless, you have no idea what a conservative is.

[UNT_playmaker]

I have conservative views but am not affiliated to any party and support the best candidate.

I know people who tend to vote republican and are supporting Obama.

[Green Mean]

You can't possibly be a conservative and vote obama. Unless, you have no idea what a conservative is.

Why does a person have to be so one sided? I am neither a conservative nor a liberal...nor am I democrat or a republican. I feel both sides have good views that I agree with. I hate this all or nothing crap. As for politics...it is just better if everybody tries to keep it to themselves. I find it that no one can really have a good discussion about politics because everybody has their own damn agenda trying to convince people one way or another.

Edited October 30, 2008 by Green Mean

[Travis]

Why does a person have to be so one sided? I am neither a conservative nor a liberal...nor am I democrat or a republican. I feel both sides have good views that I agree with. I hate this all or nothing crap. As for politics...it is just better if everybody tries to keep it to themselves. I find it that no one can really have a good discussion about politics because everybody has their own damn agenda trying to convince people one way or another.

They don't have to be one-sided. But, if you claim to be "conservative" then you are claiming a philosophic ideal. When you follow that up with saying you are voting for Obama who is completely opposite a conservative, then I think it is completely just to question one's knowledge of what it means to make that original claim.

I am Travis and I approve this message.

Edited October 30, 2008 by Travis

[meangreendork]

They don't have to be one-sided. But, if you claim to be "conservative" then you are claiming a philosophic ideal. When you follow that up with saying you are voting for Obama who is completely opposite a conservative, then I think it is completely just to question one's knowledge of what it means to make that original claim.

I am Travis and I approve this message.

Depends on what someone's conservative or liberal about, really. I'm a social liberal, but not entirely a fiscal conservative...and it wouldn't matter with this $750B bailout anyways since the tax cuts will be pretty meaningless. It's just a matter of what kind of economics you believe will actually fix the problem, and since I'm no economist, I won't say I know whether Keynesian economics will work here or not.

[UNTflyer]

I am an Conservative who voted for Bush in 2000 cuz he was from Texas. I am a conservative but am an independent, nor Republican or Democrat.

My favorite presdients have been Democrats, Kennedy and Carter and Republicans, Lincoln, Eisenhower, Ford.

Does not compute.

[meangreendork]

Does not compute.

He's got both parties listed there, although Lincoln's party isn't the same party we have now and neither was Eisenhowers, though he was a good president.

[JayDub]

This thread has been cleaned up significantly and one person has been given a 3 day "Board Vacation" as a result of some of the personal attacks that have been thrown around.

This forum was created to be the sort of "catch-all" for anything not sports and not UNT related. It was inevitable that it would become a politics forum during this election year. It is an obviously divisive topic (one that has, on more than one occasion this election year, resulted in me receiving nasty PM's...including one just this evening...from people I otherwise respect including, amongst other things, wishing death on me for being a "liberal moderator"). I lobbied the admins to allow us to have political discussions in this forum...as long as we could keep the personal stuff in check. Now, I'm not so sure that was a great idea.

That said, everyone is entitled to their opinion here...no matter how wrong you may thing that person's opinion is. I don't agree with the opinions of many that post here...but I respect that individual's freedom to voice those thoughts and feelings...and will continue to allow it. However, I'm getting awfully close to imploding this whole thing. So, let's take a moment to review the rules of GoMeanGreen.com

The Board Rules

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• While debating and discussion is fine, we will not tolerate rudeness, insulting posts, personal attacks or purposeless inflammatory posts. Our decision is final in these matters.
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Any threads/posts of these types will be deleted.

Let's keep it civil...I'm growing tired of handing out 2, 3, and 5 day vacations. Hell, I banned my best friend today. How's that for those who call me "unfair"?

Happy Posting.

Edited October 30, 2008 by JayDub