Re-visiting Preseason Won-loss Predicitions

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 29, 2008

Anyway...

I predicted we'd be 0-4. As you can see, I also thought we'd be struggling a little on defense due to the sheer number of new players.

However, what I got completely wrong is that I thought we'd be competitive in the games. That hasn't been the case. And, it's baffling - especially on the offensive end.

For what it's worth, I also predicted we'd beat FIU and U-LaLa after the 0-4 start, and that we'd have a winning record in the Sun Belt once the dust cleared. Now, I'm not so sure. FIU won a road game against a MAC team and U-LaLa played K-State to within 8 in The Little Apple.

Game 1 at Kansas State: KSU 45, UNT 21

It doesn't really matter that KSU has a bunch of JUCO guys coming in. On the offensive side of the ball, they have plenty coming back. Their veteran offensive line wears our fledgling defensive line down in the third quarter to break away.

What happened: Kansas State 45, UNT 6: It didn't matter that K-State had JUCOs, as predicted. Surprisingly, our offense was a no-show against a Wildcat defense with a bunch of new guys

Game 2 Tulsa: TU 41, UNT 34

This is a game of two spread offenses. Tulsa had a bad defense on the road last year, but still managed to outscore most opponent in the way to a CUSA Championship appearance and a 63-7 beating of Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl. TU is still a few seasons ahead of us. Our new defensive backs get their first real look at a spread team.

What happened: Tulsa 56, UNT 26: The Golden Hurricane post a 42-10 halftime lead, we tack on a couple fourth quarter scores against the TU scrubs to make the blowout look...respectable?

Game 3 at LSU: LSU 45, UNT 19

It's LSU. They will be coming off a game with Troy and preparing for the game the next week at Auburn. They get up on us early, then pull the starters to rest for the early SEC showdown with Auburn the following week.

What happened: LSU 41, UNT 3: Les Miles never has had a history of running up the score, so I didn't figure he would here either. LSU could have just on punt returns alone. For some reason, I honestly thought we'd hang about 20 on the Tigers on the road. One field goal.

Game 4 at Rice: Rice 43, UNT 32

Like the Tulsa game, this is two offenses that wing it around. Rice will have been trashed by Texas the weekend before we get there and will be happy to see softer competition.

What happened: Rice 77, UNT 20: Again, The defense was worse than I thought, and so was the offense. Special teams is getting to be unmentionable. The sight of Rice desperately trying not to move the ball in the fourth quarter will be indelibly marked in many of our minds. Yes, Rice trying not to run it up on us! THE Rice Owls! Never in my wildest and worst nightmares did I expect OU II at Rice.

Through 4 games

Predicition: 0-4 with 106 points for and 174 points against

Reality: 0-4 with 55 points for and 219 points against...ouch!

Game 5 Florida International: UNT 40, FIU 25

We inexplicably lost to the worst team in college football last year, FIU. It won't happen again.

Revised Predicition: UNT 33, FIU 25: FIU winning on the road against a MAC team was impressive, but - against my better judgement - I still say we win this one. Just not by double digits. Even in the win at Toledo, FIU offense didn't set the world on fire.

Surely, we can stop FIU's offense, as it often stops itself: 2008, so far for the Golden Pathers - 22% 3rd down conversion rate, 46% pass completion rate, 1 TD pass against 5 interceptions thrown, 11 sacks given up, 2.5 yards per carry average rushing, 28 penalties (7 per game, so far).

Yes, if we can't beat this team, on our own field, we have major problems, Houston. Major problems. FIU is still awful.

Game 6 Louisiana-Lafayette: UNT 36, ULL 31

Yes, ULL has some talented seniors on offense. However, most of it is run-based. By this point in the season, I expect out DL to be doing better against the run. We feed off the win the weekend before and steal one from hardluck Ricky Bustle's bunch for a second consecutive home win.

Revised Prediction: UNT 35, Louisiana-Lafayette 33: I still think this one will be an exciting nail-biter, and I still think we can win it. I don't have any logical explanation as to why...I guess it's just hope.

Edited September 29, 2008 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

LongJim · September 29, 2008

Anyway...
I predicted we'd be 0-4. As you can see, I also thought we'd be struggling a little on defense due to the sheer number of new players.
However, what I got completely wrong is that I thought we'd be competitive in the games.

I had UNT at 0-4, as well, although I thought the Rice game would be competitive.

My worst prediction so far...

"Defense and special teams will win 2 games this year."

Holy smokes.

Edited September 29, 2008 by LongJim

GoMeanGreen1999 · September 29, 2008

Anyway...
I predicted we'd be 0-4. As you can see, I also thought we'd be struggling a little on defense due to the sheer number of new players.
However, what I got completely wrong is that I thought we'd be competitive in the games. That hasn't been the case. And, it's baffling - especially on the offensive end.
For what it's worth, I also predicted we'd beat FIU and U-LaLa after the 0-4 start, and that we'd have a winning record in the Sun Belt once the dust cleared. Now, I'm not so sure. FIU won a road game against a MAC team and U-LaLa played K-State to within 8 in The Little Apple.
Game 1 at Kansas State: KSU 45, UNT 21
It doesn't really matter that KSU has a bunch of JUCO guys coming in. On the offensive side of the ball, they have plenty coming back. Their veteran offensive line wears our fledgling defensive line down in the third quarter to break away.
What happened: Kansas State 45, UNT 6: It didn't matter that K-State had JUCOs, as predicted. Surprisingly, our offense was a no-show against a Wildcat defense with a bunch of new guys
Game 2 Tulsa: TU 41, UNT 34
This is a game of two spread offenses. Tulsa had a bad defense on the road last year, but still managed to outscore most opponent in the way to a CUSA Championship appearance and a 63-7 beating of Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl. TU is still a few seasons ahead of us. Our new defensive backs get their first real look at a spread team.
What happened: Tulsa 56, UNT 26: The Golden Hurricane post a 42-10 halftime lead, we tack on a couple fourth quarter scores against the TU scrubs to make the blowout look...respectable?
Game 3 at LSU: LSU 45, UNT 19
It's LSU. They will be coming off a game with Troy and preparing for the game the next week at Auburn. They get up on us early, then pull the starters to rest for the early SEC showdown with Auburn the following week.
What happened: LSU 41, UNT 3: Les Miles never has had a history of running up the score, so I didn't figure he would here either. LSU could have just on punt returns alone. For some reason, I honestly thought we'd hang about 20 on the Tigers on the road. One field goal.
Game 4 at Rice: Rice 43, UNT 32
Like the Tulsa game, this is two offenses that wing it around. Rice will have been trashed by Texas the weekend before we get there and will be happy to see softer competition.
What happened: Rice 77, UNT 20: Again, The defense was worse than I thought, and so was the offense. Special teams is getting to be unmentionable. The sight of Rice desperately trying not to move the ball in the fourth quarter will be indelibly marked in many of our minds. Yes, Rice trying not to run it up on us! THE Rice Owls! Never in my wildest and worst nightmares did I expect OU II at Rice.
Through 4 games
Predicition: 0-4 with 106 points for and 174 points against
Reality: 0-4 with 55 points for and 219 points against...ouch!
Game 5 Florida International: UNT 40, FIU 25
We inexplicably lost to the worst team in college football last year, FIU. It won't happen again.
Revised Predicition: UNT 33, FIU 25: FIU winning on the road against a MAC team was impressive, but - against my better judgement - I still say we win this one. Just not by double digits. Even in the win at Toledo, FIU offense didn't set the world on fire.
Surely, we can stop FIU's offense, as it often stops itself: 2008, so far for the Golden Pathers - 22% 3rd down conversion rate, 46% pass completion rate, 1 TD pass against 5 interceptions thrown, 11 sacks given up, 2.5 yards per carry average rushing, 28 penalties (7 per game, so far).
Yes, if we can't beat this team, on our own field, we have major problems, Houston. Major problems. FIU is still awful.
Game 6 Louisiana-Lafayette: UNT 36, ULL 31
Yes, ULL has some talented seniors on offense. However, most of it is run-based. By this point in the season, I expect out DL to be doing better against the run. We feed off the win the weekend before and steal one from hardluck Ricky Bustle's bunch for a second consecutive home win.
Revised Prediction: UNT 35, Louisiana-Lafayette 33: I still think this one will be an exciting nail-biter, and I still think we can win it. I don't have any logical explanation as to why...I guess it's just hope.

After last night, I don't see a team we can beat. I would love to see us win this weekend, but I am afraid we are going to see this weekend just how far off we really are. You aren't the only one that is shocked though from last night, I just keep saying to myself all day: RICE?