Week One: Prediction Versus What Really Happened

The Fake Lonnie Finch · August 31, 2008

Back in the pre-season prediction thread, I predicted a KSU win by the score of 45-21. I nailed the KSU side, but expected more out of our guys. I think this is what surprises me the most.

We managed to hang a couple of scores on the OU subs last year. This year, we start of with an off with a seasoned offense getting squashed by what was alleged to be a band of thrown together JUCOs. I guess not. We didn't even get in any licks on KSU's subs and desperation JUCOs, though.

Dodge needs to just burn this game film and declare the Tulsa game and Game #1.

GoMeanGreen1999 · August 31, 2008

Lonnie, remind me please - what is your prediction for the Tulsa game? I realize Tulsa's defense is weak, but KSU didn't have any problems passing on our defense, and that has me very concerned.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 2, 2008

Game 2 Tulsa: TU 41, UNT 34

This is a game of two spread offenses. Tulsa had a bad defense on the road last year, but still managed to outscore most opponent in the way to a CUSA Championship appearance and a 63-7 beating of Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl. TU is still a few seasons ahead of us. Our new defensive backs get their first real look at a spread team.

GoMeanGreen1999 · September 2, 2008

Game 2 Tulsa: TU 41, UNT 34
This is a game of two spread offenses. Tulsa had a bad defense on the road last year, but still managed to outscore most opponent in the way to a CUSA Championship appearance and a 63-7 beating of Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl. TU is still a few seasons ahead of us. Our new defensive backs get their first real look at a spread team.

So in light of this past saturday, does your prediction change any?

greenminer · September 2, 2008

So in light of this past saturday, does your prediction change any?

I don't think anyone can safely assume what will happen next on offense.

I wasn't nails like Fake was on the KSU points allowed (45), but I was pretty darned close.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 2, 2008

So in light of this past saturday, does your prediction change any?

Not really. Tulsa opened their season on the road, and for the first half of the game trailed 22-21. I went and checked UAB's two-deep - they have no senior starters on their offense and only one senior at all in the two-deep - and they still moved the ball well against TU in the first half! We are also very young on offense, relatively speaking.

UAB's QB, Joe Webb, is a guy who started last season - as a wide receiver! Later in the year, they moved him to QB. Basically, he's an athlete, not a pure QB. Against TU's defense, he was 17-31 for 169 yards, two TDs and one INT. He was only sacked once - again, this was against a UAB line with no seniors in the two-deep!

The better news for us is that QB Webb punctured TU's defense to the tune of 136 yards on 18 carries. For the day, UAB rushed for 245 yards on 36 carries, so TU's run defense is still suspect.

Yes, TU's defense did pitch a shutout the second half. However, we should have more experience than UAB put out there and should be able to move the ball all day long against the Golden Hurricane.

On the flip side, TU's offense is a machine. Their starting QB, David Johnson, went 20-24 for 332 yards and three TDs against no INTs. They also ran for 240 yards. All told, they put up 361 yards passing against a UAB defense that had three seniors starting in the secondary, giving them an eye-popping 601 yards of offense in their road win. Not surprising, though, as Tulsa led the NCAA in total offense last season. Yes, they graduated a QB, but this is an offense, like ours aspires to be, where you just plug in the next guy in line and the yards keep coming.

Even though our offense was throttled by K-State, I still expect us to move the ball well against Tulsa. I expect a high scoring affair. Tulsa is in their sixth year of running this type of spread offensive which was installed by former coach Steve Kragthorpe (who is currently ruining the Louisville program). They are very proficient at it. But, their defense which was very suspect last year, appears to be just as suspect this year.

So, I still expect the game to be in the 41-34 range.

WILDCARD: The Tulsa QB is a pretty decent punter. On a 4th and 8 from their 48, Johnson got off a 34 yard kick. So, in between the 40s, we should be aware of a possible quick kick even if Tulsa lines up like they're going to run a fourth down play.

Edited September 2, 2008 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 2, 2008

ADDENDUM: If we can't move the ball: ( a ) at home and ( b ) especially against TU's "defense"...fellas, this will not be a good year. A very inexperienced UAB offense hung 414 yards on TU last Saturday. I would expect us, with our more experienced offense, to be able to put at least 500 yards on the Golden Hurricane - with at least 200 on the ground and by air.

Folks, this is a game we can realistically steal, courtesy of TU's spotty defense in road games. Let's go ahead and do it.

Edited September 2, 2008 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

GoMeanGreen1999 · September 2, 2008

ADDENDUM: If we can't move the ball: ( a ) at home and ( b ) especially against TU's "defense"...fellas, this will not be a good year. A very inexperienced UAB offense hung 414 yards on TU last Saturday. I would expect us, with our more experienced offense, to be able to put at least 500 yards on the Golden Hurricane - with at least 200 on the ground and by air.
Folks, this is a game we can realistically steal, courtesy of TU's spotty defense in road games. Let's go ahead and do it.

I am not so much worried about our offense, as I am our defense. That Mahlzan offense looked pretty proficient last week.

NCMeanGreen · September 2, 2008

Back in the pre-season prediction thread, I predicted a KSU win by the score of 45-21. I nailed the KSU side, but expected more out of our guys. I think this is what surprises me the most.
We managed to hang a couple of scores on the OU subs last year. This year, we start of with an off with a seasoned offense getting squashed by what was alleged to be a band of thrown together JUCOs. I guess not. We didn't even get in any licks on KSU's subs and desperation JUCOs, though.
Dodge needs to just burn this game film and declare the Tulsa game and Game #1.

I predicted KSU - 42, UNT - 24 and I, too, expected more out of the offense. (Woudl have been spot on except for that crappy last FG made by KSU!)

For Tulsa, I predict a score of 35-10...Tulsa