Sea Of Changes Coming

ADLER · July 22, 2008

During his post-press conference chat with the print media, new Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick went on record about several issues confronting college football, in particular as it relates to Notre Dame:
# On Notre Dame's football independence: "I think it's a critical part of who we are as a school. I think part of it is navigating what I think are sea changes that are coming. If the BCS gets reformed in some way, if there's a reshaping of the conferences, we've got to navigate those waters. (But) it's who we are."

South Bend Tribune

Is North Texas prepared to navigate this coming 'Sea of Changes' ?

Opportunity may soon be knocking, but it may be a very long time before that opportunity again rises.

KingDL1 · July 22, 2008

South Bend Tribune
Is North Texas prepared to navigate this coming 'Sea of Changes' ?
Opportunity may soon be knocking, but it may be a very long time before that opportunity again rises.

I have heard rumors of some major conference shifts in the near future to have 12 teams per conference within the auto-bid conferences, that each auto-bid conference would have a Conference Championship game. But who knows?

ADLER · July 23, 2008

I have heard rumors of some major conference shifts in the near future to have 12 teams per conference within the auto-bid conferences, that each auto-bid conference would have a Conference Championship game. But who knows?

I believe that you're right.

I know that the Big Ten has tried twice within the last 10 years to entice Notre Dame to join but the NBC deal was just too lucrative for them to leave. Big Ten commish Jim Delaney stated this past summer that the conference was again reviewing expansion and mentioned usual target Notre Dame but possibly Syracuse or Rutgers as an alternative. All three fit the conference geographic / academic profile and would be excellent additions to the Big Ten Network.

The quote may have been a warning to Notre Dame not to extend their NBC contract past it's expiration in 2010.

Notre Dame has since extended their NBC contract through 2015.

If the Big Ten goes to twelve by adding Syracuse or Rutgers, then the Big East will probably react by splitting (football/non football) selecting the 5 best expansion candidates.

CUSA would almost certainly be a source for several of those Big East expansion candidates.

The remaining western CUSA schools will be putting on their finest lipstick for the remaining 3 Mountain West positions. (which could even become 5 if there is subsequent Pac 10 expansion) Hawaii, Fresno State, Boise State, and Nevada will already be chasing these openings out of desparation but expect NMSU, UTEP, SMU, Tulsa and Houston to also make attempts.

SJSU, Idaho and Utah State return to familiar territory with their traditional opponents in the Big Sky Conference.

The WAC dies, and the remaining Sun Belt and CUSA schools eventually split into southeastern and south central region conferences as South Alabama, Texas State, Missouri State, and UTSA move up and NMSU is absorbed from the defunct WAC.

La Tech will probably fill the void left in the Southland by the departure of Texas State. Just kidding Techies.

That is how the dominos fall.

Then again, maybe Notre Dame joins the Big Ten and nothing else changes.

Edited July 23, 2008 by ADLER

July 23, 2008

I know that the Big Ten has tried twice within the last 10 years to entice Notre Dame to join but the NBC deal was just too lucrative for them to leave. Big Ten commish Jim Delaney stated this past summer that the conference was again reviewing expansion and mentioned usual target Notre Dame but possibly Syracuse or Rutgers as an alternative. All three fit the conference geographic / academic profile and would be excellent additions to the Big Ten Network.
Geoff, I realize that you are just being cynical about the rest but Notre Dame is a real sticking point with me.
Notre Dame, even though it is a private school, does at least fit the geographic/academic profile while IMO the others do not. Notre Dame draws 80,000 and has a storied history but they should no more be allowed to cut their own deal than Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, Tennessee, Penn State, or any of the others who have the following to be independent. The NCAA TV package is based on conference affiliation. What if no one scheduled Notre Dame as a result of their actions? How long would NBC continue to pay to see them play Appalachian State or Youngstown State? Or maybe only the Big Ten would refuse to play them. Either way, the deal is not so good for the network. No one member should be bigger than the NCAA.
On to the other two, Syracuse is private university located in yet another state away from the core of the Big 10. They aren't even a shadow of the Jim Brown era days and struggle to draw 40,000. Only Northwestern draws less as a rule. Rutgers is a state university (also more distant) as are all of the others except Northwestern, but they too have only been drawing 40,000 and, except for the last few years, have been atrocious.
So, while the NCAA can't force Notre Dame into a conference, it's members could sure make it uncomfortable for them should they choose.

ADLER · July 23, 2008

Although I agree about the Notre Dame situation, that doesn't change the fact that they are still in command of their own destiny and every school in the nation will bend over backwards to get them on the schedule. Their national fan base insures that they can always make more by having their own television package.

I think you brought up an interesting scenario with the Texas Longhorns. What if Texas went independent, kept the neutral site game with OU, played a home-and-home series with A&M, played another national top competitor (USC, Ohio St., or Florida) each year, and then scheduled 9 additional home games against well compensated pushovers. They could have their own television contract, maximize their ticket income, and be in position to play for the BCS championship every couple of years.

Of course it would blatantly be poor sportsmanship, but since when has that ever determined decisions in Austin. It's all about the money and the trophys.

Arkstfan · July 23, 2008

I have heard rumors of some major conference shifts in the near future to have 12 teams per conference within the auto-bid conferences, that each auto-bid conference would have a Conference Championship game. But who knows?

Those rumors have been around forever but they ignore four very basic problems.

#1. The Big 10 can't get the ring on the finger of the one gal they want to marry to get to 12 (ie. Notre Dame). The Big 10 commands huge television numbers.

#2. The Pac-10 has two problems. One there ain't no one in or around their neighborhood they want to add. Their bylaws require a unanimous expansion vote. While it doesn't command the TV numbers of the Big 10, if you have a BCS that doesn't include the Pac-10 you lose major interest in the little ol TV markets of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco/Oakland, Sacramento, Portland, Seattle, and Phoenix. You also lose interest in communities that host two of the four BCS games.

#3. The Big East doesn't have four schools of the caliber of the top half of the league to pick from. They don't have four of the level of the top 75% to pick from. While they don't throw the TV numbers of the other five BCS leagues they are the primary source of TV interest in little ol TV markets like New York, Boston, Hartford, and Pittsburgh. One of the strongest influences in college athletics (ESPN) has historically held a tight relationship with the Big East and UConn.

#4. With six big table members it would be very hard to get half of them to vote for a rule they don't want.

ADLER · July 23, 2008

Those rumors have been around forever but they ignore four very basic problems.
#1. The Big 10 can't get the ring on the finger of the one gal they want to marry to get to 12 (ie. Notre Dame). The Big 10 commands huge television numbers.
#2. The Pac-10 has two problems. One there ain't no one in or around their neighborhood they want to add. Their bylaws require a unanimous expansion vote. While it doesn't command the TV numbers of the Big 10, if you have a BCS that doesn't include the Pac-10 you lose major interest in the little ol TV markets of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco/Oakland, Sacramento, Portland, Seattle, and Phoenix. You also lose interest in communities that host two of the four BCS games.
#3. The Big East doesn't have four schools of the caliber of the top half of the league to pick from. They don't have four of the level of the top 75% to pick from. While they don't throw the TV numbers of the other five BCS leagues they are the primary source of TV interest in little ol TV markets like New York, Boston, Hartford, and Pittsburgh. One of the strongest influences in college athletics (ESPN) has historically held a tight relationship with the Big East and UConn.
#4. With six big table members it would be very hard to get half of them to vote for a rule they don't want.

Sure the Big Ten wants Notre Dame, but if it can't have it, Rutgers and the New York market isn't such a bad consolation prize.

If, and I am stating IF, that were to happen, how do you think the Big East would react? I don't think just adding Memphis would be enough and the Big East would look for the best long term stability; expanding to 12 football schools by adding the best candidates available.

Edited July 23, 2008 by ADLER

VideoEagle · July 23, 2008

Those rumors have been around forever but they ignore four very basic problems.
#1. The Big 10 can't get the ring on the finger of the one gal they want to marry to get to 12 (ie. Notre Dame). The Big 10 commands huge television numbers.
#2. The Pac-10 has two problems. One there ain't no one in or around their neighborhood they want to add. Their bylaws require a unanimous expansion vote. While it doesn't command the TV numbers of the Big 10, if you have a BCS that doesn't include the Pac-10 you lose major interest in the little ol TV markets of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco/Oakland, Sacramento, Portland, Seattle, and Phoenix. You also lose interest in communities that host two of the four BCS games.

Don't forget the Big 10 Commish basically dictated the current BCS rules. He had made no secret of the Big 10 pulling out of the entire system if he doesn't think it benefits his teams - they were perfectly happy with the old Bowl system.

And an additional Pac 10 problem: eight of the teams really, truly, want to play UCLA and USC each and every year. You can't do that in divisions.

forevereagle · July 23, 2008

Notre Dame should probably be careful. If the Big 11 does take someone else, and the changes do go on, as the college football insider new AD they hired says, ND could be left on the outside looking in. A new system that doesn't give them an auto-bid if they are even a little good could really hurt. Everyone needs to quit bending over for a team that hasn't been relevant in a long time.

Arkstfan · July 24, 2008

Sure the Big Ten wants Notre Dame, but if it can't have it, Rutgers and the New York market isn't such a bad consolation prize.
If, and I am stating IF, that were to happen, how do you think the Big East would react? I don't think just adding Memphis would be enough and the Big East would look for the best long term stability; expanding to 12 football schools by adding the best candidates available.

Well one thing to remember. Mike Tranghese will likely be retired by the time that happens so a lot will depend on the new commissioner. Tranghese saved the conference after the ACC raid like George Bailey when there was a run on the bank. Do they have another George Bailey?

If the Big East holds together? If Notre Dame is being squeezed don't be shocked if their place of choice is the Big East. They already have the other sport relationship, they already have the bowl relationship. The Big East unlike the Big 10 might very well entertain a deal where Notre Dame still controls the tv rights to its home games because that would mean three to four Notre Dame road games would be under their television contract.

Barring Notre Dame, the logical play is UCF. Allows football to go to Florida every year allows for pairing a trip to Orlando with Tampa in other sports.

Now if basketball and football part ways?

Notre Dame would have to choose sides. The football Big East would probably kick Notre Dame out of their football bowl relationship making it hard for the domers to get in a good paying bowl game if they don't qualify for the BCS but they might still cut them slack on the TV deal.

Temple could come into the picture because the Big East would lose its basketball presence in Philly (#4 TV market). UCF could still be in the mix. If they go to 12 Memphis could get in the mix, maybe UAB.