Txfb's Stat Projections

[McK]

It has taken a while for me to find last year's Dave Campbell's Texas Football, but I finally found it to compare last year's stat projections to actual stats.

TFb had Meager passing 150 for 275, 1700 yards, 14 TD's and 8 int's; Vizza 125 for 200, 1400 yards, 10 TD's, 4 int's. Meager's actual numbers were 107 for 169, 1088 yards, 4 TD's, 8 int's; and Vizza's were 223 for 383, 2388 yards, 17 TD's and 20 int's. Other than very significant miss of the interceptions, that was quite close. Obviously Vizza played more, and Meager less, than expected, but in their combined projections-- 275 for 475, 3100 yards, 24 TD's, 12 int's-- compare well (less the int's) with their actuals: 330 for 552, 3476 yards, 21 TD's, 28 int's. Hopefully wiser and more mature play will lead to less mistakes, which should be the case, even if it means less yards, as an incompletion is better than an interception, and driving is overall better than a quick score or a quick out.

For running back, Thomas was projected: 200 carries for 1000 yards and 8 TD's. His actual was 112 carries for 666 yards and 8 TD's. But the top 2 RB's came close (though it was Mosley, not Deavan Cox in 2nd))-- proj.: 250 carries for 1200 yards, 10 TD's; actual: 206 carries for 1127 yards, 13 TD's.

For WR's, Jackson's projections: 75 catches for 900 yards, 8 TD's; and Fitzgerald's were 45 catches, 450 yards, 4 TD's. Actual: Jackson-- 79 catches for 784 yards, 1 TD; Fitzgerald-- 111 catches for 1322 yards, 12 TD's. So combined, projections were: 120 catches, 1350 yards, 12 TD's; actual: 190 catches, 2106 yards, 13 TD's. Again, UNT could afford more incompletions for less interceptions, though these stats do show the potential.

So total offense, based on the top 2 passers and top 2 rushers-- projection: 725 plays for 4300 yards, 34 TD's; actual: 758 plays, 4603 yards, 34 TD's. The projected # of offensive TD's was right on target; but the projection was one TD per 126.5 yards, and the actual was one TD per 135.4 yards. This is relevant, basing it on these less-than-complete stats because they represented 93.9% of the total offense, and the projections were within 93.4% of the actual for total offense-- excellent in comparison to individual stats projections.

So... for this year the offensive projections, on the same basis, are: 360 of 605 passes for 4070 yards, 21 TD's, 18 int's; and 225 rushing attempts for 975 yards and 8 TD's-- total offense, then: 830 plays for 4995 yards and 29 TD's. Or, within the 93% range: 4645 yards to 5370 yards. And if the rate of one TD per 135 yards continues or improves-- 34 to 39 TD's. That seems to be shorting the offense of scoring, considering the projected 29 TD's, and/or projecting there will be no "wiser" use of opportunities on the offense. On that I hope they're wrong.

Defensive stats are not projected the same way in TFB, but they are implied by the # of plays by the offense, which is projected to improve (they better).

[NT80]

So... for this year the offensive projections, on the same basis, are: 360 of 605 passes for 4070 yards, 21 TD's, 18 int's; and 225 rushing attempts for 975 yards and 8 TD's-- total offense, then: 830 plays for 4995 yards and 29 TD's. Or, within the 93% range: 4645 yards to 5370 yards. And if the rate of one TD per 135 yards continues or improves-- 34 to 39 TD's. That seems to be shorting the offense of scoring, considering the projected 29 TD's, and/or projecting there will be no "wiser" use of opportunities on the offense. On that I hope they're wrong.

I would like to see the offense score quicker, that is fewer plays or longer pass completions. The dink and dunk passes work fine to a point, but most drives that are longer than 12-14 plays usually have something bad happen to end them...ie turnovers. Dodge's SLC offenses developed into a quick-strike offensive machine. Many TDs in a short time span to break open the game, depress the opponent into submission by the 3rd quarter, then run out the clock in a controlled offense.

Edited July 5, 2008 by NT80