Inside Dish : Pac 10 Could Face Expansion

MeanGreen61 · June 16, 2008

Effect on the MWC, WAC ?

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=424038

Mean Green 93-98 · June 16, 2008

Not related to the headline, but I thought this was interesting:

New Mexico State is in danger of losing its Bowl Championship Subdivision (Division I) status if it fails to average 15,000 fans this fall. The Aggies averaged 14,412 last year, falling short of the NCAA's 15,000 mandate for a rolling two-year period.

WAC membership doesn't seem to be boosting their attendance any.

VideoEagle · June 16, 2008

I have always heard and read that the chief obstacle to PAC10 expansion was giving up the annual games with USC and UCLA. Those are huge draws for the other 10 teams and they were reluctant to give those up. It seemed that having one or the other of those teams playing at the other 8's stadiums made more money than the one twelfth share of title game TV revenue would generate. What I understand is that is especially true for the Arizona and Oregon schools and to a lesser extent true for Washington State, Stanford, Cal and Washington.

As for BYU, there was some issue about scheduling games in sports other than football that somehow related to the LDS church. I can't remember the specifics but I seem to remember reading about a lot of opposition to BYU from USC and Stanford.

Nothing is set in stone anymore, but I don't see the PAC 10 expanding till they are forced by outside influences. Remember, they really would prefer not to even be in the BCS alliance.

Green Mean · June 16, 2008

If I am the Pac 10 then I would probably go after Hawaii and Boise State.

MCMLXXX · June 16, 2008

Utah and Colorado would be the best available options.

Eastern Division: USC, UCLA, ASU, UA, UU, and UC.

Western Division: Stanford, Cal, OU, OSU, WSU, WU

NT80 · June 16, 2008

It will happen because of TV $$. BYU, Utah, and Colorado will be the main targets because they already have the alums and facilities to host 50K+ crowds. Next in line would be Boise and perhaps Hawaii but don't bet on them. Any change in conference lineups is potentially good for UNT because of the trickle-down effect.

Arkstfan · June 17, 2008

Video your memory is good.

USC and UCLA are generally the best gate receipts for most Pac-10 schools and it has been long assumed that Washington, Washington State, Oregon and Oregon State would always oppose expansion because it is highly unlikely that they would end up in the same division as USC and UCLA. These were the schools who were strong proponents of the nine game schedule.

BYU does not play on Sunday. The Pac-10 plays a lot of Sunday basketball and baseball as well as playing Sunday in most every sport except football. Most of their championship tournaments play on Sunday as well. Now I happen to think BYU might have a different stance toward Sunday play if the Pac-10 were asking but we can always act like they are actually devoted to their beliefs and assume Sunday will remain an issue.

Here's the thing when you look at Pac-10 expansion. First look at how the members see themselves. Seven out of ten members are also members of the Association of American Universities (all but Arizona State, Washington State and Oregon State). The 60 AAU schools pull in 58% of all research grant funds in the US and 52% of all doctoral degrees. In the last decade nearly half of Noble Prize winners were affiliated with one of those schools and three fourths of all US winners. There are only three schools that play I-A ball that are members of the AAU that aren't in one of the six BCS auto qualifier leagues (Buffalo, Rice, and Tulane).

The Pac-10 is going to be very hesitant to look to a school that doesn't have a very high national profile academically. Not saying they will totally exclude lower tier school but it is an extra hurdle to clear.

Next look at the pool. Let's say the Pac-10 excludes Central and Eastern time zone schools from the candidate list. That leaves like 17 schools in I-A.

Now look at the TV markets of those schools. Denver is #18 but it's on the front range, you've got to cross the Rockies to get there (but Colorado is AAU). Next is San Diego at #27 but by all reports, the Pac-10 is already very strong in that market. The networks are unlikely to give more money for adding San Diego State because the impact would be minimal in market the Pac-10 dominates already (that's like the SEC adding ASU to improve in the Arkansas market or the B12 adding UNT to improve in the DFW market). Salt Lake is #35. Las Vegas is #43. Albuquerque is #45. Fresno is #55. Honolulu is #72. Spokane serving Moscow, Idaho is #77 and Washington State is in that market already. El Paso is #99. Reno is #110. Boise is #118.

All the way around there just aren't a lot of TV eyeballs to attract other than by adding the University of Colorado and a Utah school.

BYU with its huge influence in Salt Lake City and huge average attendance makes perfect sense but do you see West Coast colleges welcoming a college that deems homosexual behavior or advocacy for homosexuality to be an honor code violation that can result in expulsion?

That leaves the University of Utah but its support while outstanding among the non-BCS crowd still pales compared to most BCS schools and it generally struggles to attract top in-state students (academically) when BYU wants them.

If you pass on them next in line are UNLV and Fresno and neither come close to fitting the Pac-10's academic image of itself.

The core problem for Pac-10 expansion remains finding two schools that fit academically, athletically and bring eyeballs.

Daddy Dumpsalot · June 17, 2008

Not related to the headline, but I thought this was interesting:
WAC membership doesn't seem to be boosting their attendance any.

We have already been over this. One poster that is a student from NMSU said that initially their attendance rose and when they played crappy it dropped. I believe his phrase was they pulled a "goose egg" and therefore no one came to the games. Imagine how UNT's attendance would increase; even though we had a terrible record we had record attendance numbers. If we were in another conference it would only go up.

ADLER · June 17, 2008

Here's my off-the-cuff prediction: Nevada and Utah.

BYU carries too much baggage. Utah and Nevada may not be the only major college in their respective states, but both can deliver their whole state's market to the Pac 10.

UNTFan23 · June 17, 2008

We have already been over this. One poster that is a student from NMSU said that initially their attendance rose and when they played crappy it dropped. I believe his phrase was they pulled a "goose egg" and therefore no one came to the games. Imagine how UNT's attendance would increase; even though we had a terrible record we had record attendance numbers. If we were in another conference it would only go up.

What makes anyone think that we'll see higher attendance numbers based on our conference affiliation. In our Big West days, didn't we see some of our worst attended games? I think I can count on one hand the number conference games where we had 20,000 in the stands. I just can't see any significant increases in attendance cause we switch to the WAC.

One thing that I think a lot of WAC lovers seem to forget is traveling to away games. Trust me, they can be a blast. Right now, both Louisiana schools and Arkansas State are within a reasonable distance. We'd be looking at really limiting fan traveling options. I think it is almost the same distance to MTSU as it is NMSU, who is one of the more "out there" schools that is in a state that doesn't rhyme with Orida.

Quoner · June 17, 2008

What makes anyone think that we'll see higher attendance numbers based on our conference affiliation. In our Big West days, didn't we see some of our worst attended games? I think I can count on one hand the number conference games where we had 20,000 in the stands. I just can't see any significant increases in attendance cause we switch to the WAC.
One thing that I think a lot of WAC lovers seem to forget is traveling to away games. Trust me, they can be a blast. Right now, both Louisiana schools and Arkansas State are within a reasonable distance. We'd be looking at really limiting fan traveling options. I think it is almost the same distance to MTSU as it is NMSU, who is one of the more "out there" schools that is in a state that doesn't rhyme with Orida.

I've been away a few days. Good to see we are all moving on to new topics.

UNTFan23 · June 17, 2008

I've been away a few days. Good to see we are all moving on to new topics.

I know. I'm just itching for someone to start a stadium thread. :shifty:

UNTflyer · June 17, 2008

I know. I'm just itching for someone to start a stadium thread.

We should have helmet stickers like they do at Georgia. And if anyone says it is high school-ish, I'm gonna get hostile all up in their face.

Chrisattsu · June 17, 2008

Video your memory is good.
USC and UCLA are generally the best gate receipts for most Pac-10 schools and it has been long assumed that Washington, Washington State, Oregon and Oregon State would always oppose expansion because it is highly unlikely that they would end up in the same division as USC and UCLA. These were the schools who were strong proponents of the nine game schedule.
BYU does not play on Sunday. The Pac-10 plays a lot of Sunday basketball and baseball as well as playing Sunday in most every sport except football. Most of their championship tournaments play on Sunday as well. Now I happen to think BYU might have a different stance toward Sunday play if the Pac-10 were asking but we can always act like they are actually devoted to their beliefs and assume Sunday will remain an issue.
Here's the thing when you look at Pac-10 expansion. First look at how the members see themselves. Seven out of ten members are also members of the Association of American Universities (all but Arizona State, Washington State and Oregon State). The 60 AAU schools pull in 58% of all research grant funds in the US and 52% of all doctoral degrees. In the last decade nearly half of Noble Prize winners were affiliated with one of those schools and three fourths of all US winners. There are only three schools that play I-A ball that are members of the AAU that aren't in one of the six BCS auto qualifier leagues (Buffalo, Rice, and Tulane).
The Pac-10 is going to be very hesitant to look to a school that doesn't have a very high national profile academically. Not saying they will totally exclude lower tier school but it is an extra hurdle to clear.
Next look at the pool. Let's say the Pac-10 excludes Central and Eastern time zone schools from the candidate list. That leaves like 17 schools in I-A.
Now look at the TV markets of those schools. Denver is #18 but it's on the front range, you've got to cross the Rockies to get there (but Colorado is AAU). Next is San Diego at #27 but by all reports, the Pac-10 is already very strong in that market. The networks are unlikely to give more money for adding San Diego State because the impact would be minimal in market the Pac-10 dominates already (that's like the SEC adding ASU to improve in the Arkansas market or the B12 adding UNT to improve in the DFW market). Salt Lake is #35. Las Vegas is #43. Albuquerque is #45. Fresno is #55. Honolulu is #72. Spokane serving Moscow, Idaho is #77 and Washington State is in that market already. El Paso is #99. Reno is #110. Boise is #118.
All the way around there just aren't a lot of TV eyeballs to attract other than by adding the University of Colorado and a Utah school.
BYU with its huge influence in Salt Lake City and huge average attendance makes perfect sense but do you see West Coast colleges welcoming a college that deems homosexual behavior or advocacy for homosexuality to be an honor code violation that can result in expulsion?
That leaves the University of Utah but its support while outstanding among the non-BCS crowd still pales compared to most BCS schools and it generally struggles to attract top in-state students (academically) when BYU wants them.
If you pass on them next in line are UNLV and Fresno and neither come close to fitting the Pac-10's academic image of itself.
The core problem for Pac-10 expansion remains finding two schools that fit academically, athletically and bring eyeballs.

That can't be true, they have a softball team!

UNTLifer · June 17, 2008

Here's my off-the-cuff prediction: Nevada and Utah.
BYU carries too much baggage. Utah and Nevada may not be the only major college in their respective states, but both can deliver their whole state's market to the Pac 10.

And would make TCU happy with their decision to move to the MWC.