Gas Prices

GoMeanGreen1999 · May 21, 2008

Alaska has a lot of oil...lets start digging those puppies up. Oh wait I bet not a damn price change will happen if that happens. Actually it will go even higher since they will say its too expensive to get the process started...thats why we are raising the price of gas.

And they will tell us it costs so much to ship it from way up in Alaska to here. It doesn't matter what solutions we come up with, they will always have another reason why it continues to go up. I never thought gas would stay above $2.50, but now I don't think it will go lower than $3.

Cerebus · May 21, 2008

The demand from emerging markets continue to rise. There is no puppet master, folks. If you want a real solution to the problem, call Congress and demand that they allow drilling in ANWR, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Rockies. It will still take 5 years to raise production, but it's better than whining about it.

Most of my family works in oil, so I am no tree huggin hippie. But lets get real. The Emerging Markets are HUGE, mammoth. There is no way to increase supply over demand, none.

The only long term solution is to create technologies that more efficently use the resources we have now.

1 out of every three (or so) people on earth are in India and China, countries that use far, FAR less resources per capita that western countries. However, with their economic boom, more and more and more of thier people are going to be able to afford things like air conditioning, cars, tv's etc that suck up a lot of resources.

There is no way to over come that with supply, you have to create efficiency.

UNTflyer · May 21, 2008

There is no way to over come that with supply, you have to create efficiency.

I partially agree. I do not think we can overcome the current demand with current supply. The days of 99 cent gasoline are gone forever. However, we CAN ease the pain by providing more supply domestically, and when China and India's economies go into recession (and they will) we may once again see gas around $1.50 - 1.75.

And becoming more efficient balances it out on the other end of the scale... which I completely agree we need to do.

What irks me is the populist rhetoric of blaming the oil companies like they're rubbing their hands and twirling their mustaches, thinking of new ways to screw the little people. I think some people need a few basic lessons in economics.

Finally, I don't give any weight to what politicans say. Who is going to give it to you straight? The corporate executives who are subject to jail time if they mislead investors or the public in the slightest way, or politicians who want to get re-elected and are not accountable for what they say on the floor of the Senate? The corporate executives have been dragged before Congress a dozen times in the past 10 years... who calls out the politicians to demand why they hamstring domestic production?

Cerebus · May 22, 2008

I partially agree. I do not think we can overcome the current demand with current supply. The days of 99 cent gasoline are gone forever. However, we CAN ease the pain by providing more supply domestically, and when China and India's economies go into recession (and they will) we may once again see gas around $1.50 - 1.75.

There is no way. The most optimistic, and I mean the very leading edge of optimism, put the floor of gasoline at 2.25-2.50. Russian oil field production is falling, Mexican oil field production is evaporating, OPEC isn't keeping prices, they literally can't produce any large upswings in production.

The Russian front is the most troubling, in the last ten years the Russians have amounted for 80% of the non opec growth, almost keeping up barrel for barrel with the emerging market demand. But the western Siberia fields are drying up, the Kremlin is skimming about 85% of all oil profits, and they can't afford to find new wells.

And don't think Russian slowdown equals Chinese slowdown, they can out bid us. They can use the dollars we have sent to them faster than we can print new ones. Yes, at some point, the Chinese middle class will start to slow and drag down growth just it happens in all 3rd->1st markets, but with their size, they are probably a couple hundred million people away from getting close to that.

I think some people need a few basic lessons in economics.

I think most of the people saying most people need basic lessons in economics need basic lessons in oil field production.

Finally, I don't give any weight to what politicans say. Who is going to give it to you straight? The corporate executives who are subject to jail time if they mislead investors or the public in the slightest way, or politicians who want to get re-elected and are not accountable for what they say on the floor of the Senate? The corporate executives have been dragged before Congress a dozen times in the past 10 years... who calls out the politicians to demand why they hamstring domestic production?

I trust people who have spent their entire lives in the oil industry, people who started off as as roustabouts and now own their own exploration companies, or service companies, or are energy lenders, or are in some other way shape or form make their living off the industry and know it.

Trusting the CEO's of the large companies is just as foolish as trusting the congressmen. Those CEO's are there to do anything but make a profit. Is opening ANWR going to make an appreciable impact on pump prices? No. Is it going to make money hand over fist for share holders? Oh hell yes.

LongJim · May 22, 2008

I am no tree huggin hippie.

Yes you are. Celebrate it, Starchild.

UNTflyer · May 22, 2008

There is no way. The most optimistic, and I mean the very leading edge of optimism, put the floor of gasoline at 2.25-2.50. Russian oil field production is falling, Mexican oil field production is evaporating, OPEC isn't keeping prices, they literally can't produce any large upswings in production.

This assumes domestic production is peaking. But the U.S. has (conservatively) over 100 billion barrels of untapped proven supply, and even more that we can get to with a little more work and expense -- but most of it is in areas that the federal government will not permit drilling. Given our current consumption, we can fuel America for 13 years without a single drop of imported oil should the government allow exploration and production on that 100 billion barrels. Of course, we wouldn't stop importing but we could cut it drastically.

I think most of the people saying most people need basic lessons in economics need basic lessons in oil field production.

I am in the energy business, good sir. Natural gas, but we get all this information on oil and gas in our daily emails. But whether it is oil, or gas, or widgets, the laws of supply and demand hold up. Increase in supply, cerebus paribus, will lower prices... or stabilize them at the very least.

untbowler · May 22, 2008

I to would rather trust the Oil Execs who have earned their momey over some crooked politician who thinks the way to save the American public from rising gas prices is to sue OPEC!!!! :blink:

Cerebus · May 22, 2008

This assumes domestic production is peaking. But the U.S. has (conservatively) over 100 billion barrels of untapped proven supply, and even more that we can get to with a little more work and expense -- but most of it is in areas that the federal government will not permit drilling. Given our current consumption, we can fuel America for 13 years without a single drop of imported oil should the government allow exploration and production on that 100 billion barrels. Of course, we wouldn't stop importing but we could cut it drastically.
I am in the energy business, good sir. Natural gas, but we get all this information on oil and gas in our daily emails. But whether it is oil, or gas, or widgets, the laws of supply and demand hold up. Increase in supply, cerebus paribus, will lower prices... or stabilize them at the very least.

The latest report I've seen from the US Energy Department says that completely opening up ANWR, and accepting all the environmental change that would occur, would lead to peak production of ~880k barrels a day by 2025 and would lower oil prices by about 50 cents a barrel.

Same report states that opening up domestic production in other ares will have negligible effect on prices because we can't ramp up production faster than overall consumption is rising, even if per capita consumption is stalling like it has recently.

Increase in domestic supply will lower over seas usage, but in the end, we can't ramp up quick enough to meet our own demand, and after we use most of our own supply, we are screwed. Do we really want to be totally dependent on Russia and the Middle East?

Have you noticed that the only people telling you opening up ANWR and other domestic production are those who are going to make buckets of money? It is not a long term solution.

Lets face it, we NEED to increase efficiency and usage patterns. I have a sports car that I love, but it burns up gas, and its part of the problem. Next car I get will probably be much more energy efficient. If we need to write Congress about anything, it's to demand that industry is forced to meet tough energy efficiency standards.

Cerebus · May 22, 2008

I to would rather trust the Oil Execs who have earned their momey over some crooked politician who thinks the way to save the American public from rising gas prices is to sue OPEC!!!!

Your first problem is trusting anyone.

Your next problem is trusting someone you have no control over, who does have control over you by buying politicians, and whose only job duty is to increase profits.

In other words, it is smart not to trust politicians, it is just as smart not to trust oil executives*.

*I'm related to several and I don't trust them either

untbowler · May 22, 2008

Your first problem is trusting anyone.
Your next problem is trusting someone you have no control over, who does have control over you by buying politicians, and whose only job duty is to increase profits.
In other words, it is smart not to trust politicians, it is just as smart not to trust oil executives*.
*I'm related to several and I don't trust them either

I never said how much I would trust them

Cerebus · May 22, 2008

I never said how much I would trust them

I have no idea why people would trust anyone. Research things, we have the interweb, you can find out anything about anything now a days. Except possibly our stadium plans.

And when I say industry must meant higher efficiency standards, I don't mean oil industry. Do you know that if you go buy a new TV and plug it in, it uses ~80% as much power OFF as it does ON? Why? Because it keeps components charged so the tv can come fully on faster. How about we just get used to the damn TV taking 3-5 seconds to come on? Would it really kill us? That change alone would save us the equivalent of tens of thousands of barrels of oil a day nationwide.

MeanGreenEngineer · May 22, 2008

Have you noticed that the only people telling you opening up ANWR and other domestic production are those who are going to make buckets of money? It is not a long term solution.

You mean people like untflyer? :whistling1:

SUMG · May 22, 2008

There are so many "experts" out there...and their predictions are all over the place. Some say the oil price bubble is about to burst...some guy thinks the price of oil will go down after China has its' Olympics...some think the price will continue to rise. This is the scariest predicition that I've seen:

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2...0521145247.aspx

Edited May 22, 2008 by SUMG

Cerebus · May 22, 2008

There are so many "experts" out there...and their predictions are all over the place. Some say the oil price bubble is about to burst...some guy thinks the price of oil will go down after China has its' Olympics...some think the price will continue to rise. This is the scariest predicition that I've seen:
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2...0521145247.aspx

The root of the problem is huge.

1) More and more people on earth. There were 2.5 billion in 1950, there are 6.0 billion now, there will be 9 billion by mid century.

2) Each person is becoming (on average) wealthier and can afford to consume more. Wait till those billion people in China can afford to buy internal combustion engine vehicles instead of bicycles.

3) People are reluctant to give anything up. People in developed nations don't want to give up cars, or blasting the A/C. People in developing nations aren't willing to forgo increased lifestyles just because they got to it later than the rest.

4) Any changes, even if they are enforced, will be very hard for people to adapt to. Are you ready to give up your car? Take fewer baths? Stop buying food en bulk and instead going to the market every day? Any don't forget that the number one killer in the world is preventable disease and infection. Are those billions of people in the developing world willing to slow down thier economic growth, and in continue to die in droves? Or are they going to try and do everything they can to live safer lives?

SUMG · May 22, 2008

An interesting article. BTW...I've always thought that T Boone Pickens was a shady character. This guy sure seems to imply that, as well:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/78440-the-...es?source=yahoo

GoMeanGreen1999 · May 22, 2008

There are so many "experts" out there...and their predictions are all over the place. Some say the oil price bubble is about to burst...some guy thinks the price of oil will go down after China has its' Olympics...some think the price will continue to rise. This is the scariest predicition that I've seen:
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2...0521145247.aspx

That is a scary idea -which definately would either shut most of our country down, or change much of the way we do things today.

UNTLifer · May 22, 2008

Both very interesting reads. In today's Houston Chronicle, in the article regarding the oil exec's on Capitol Hill, I found it appalling the amount of money these CEO's take in. The head of Exxon Mobil stated that he made over $12 million last year, which is probably conservative, while the others either claimed to not remember their income (yeah, right) or didn't comment at all.

MeanGreenEngineer · May 22, 2008

This thread reminds me of:

My life fades. The vision dims. All that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos. Ruined dreams. This wasted land. But most of all, I remember The Road Warrior. The man we called "Max". To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time. When the world was powered by the black fuel. And the desert sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel, they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed. Men like Max. The warrior Max. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything. And became a shell of a man, a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past, a man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again...

Also, whenever I see a post by UNTFlyer, this is what I picture:

GIVE US YOUR GASOLINE!

UNTflyer · May 22, 2008

You mean people like untflyer?

Oh yeah... I'm going to be rolling naked in the the piles of money! Just need to be careful of paper cuts!

UNTflyer · May 22, 2008

This is the scariest predicition that I've seen:
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2...0521145247.aspx

Rubbish... these are long term speculators looking to put more fear in the market. Our economy cannot sustain $12-15 per gallon.

MeanGreenEngineer · May 22, 2008

Oh yeah... I'm going to be rolling naked in the the piles of money! Just need to be careful of paper cuts!

Just get it all in coins, worked for Scrooge McDuck:

Bonus: You get to swim in it!

GoMeanGreen1999 · May 22, 2008

Rubbish... these are long term speculators looking to put more fear in the market. Our economy cannot sustain $12-15 per gallon.

How high do you think our economy can handle?

UNTflyer · May 22, 2008

This thread reminds me of:
Also, whenever I see a post by UNTFlyer, this is what I picture:
GIVE US YOUR GASOLINE!

My vision is of a world where oil flows freely from Alaska and Colorado and North Dakota and the Gulf and the coast of California and Florida...

But everyone says "It won't make a difference" out one side of their mouth while claiming "Supply all over the world is peaking" out the other.

As far as "We're screwed" after we use up all our oil, maybe and maybe not. We're talking about proven reserves. They just found 200 billion barrels in North Dakota that will take some extra work to get to, but it is there.

13 years is a long time to develop alternative fuels. With the current oil crisis, this may be the time to shut down imports, open up our own reserves, drill ANWR and other reserves, but with the condition that they come up with something new within a 10 year deadline or face stiff excise fees... I'm talking billions.

UNTflyer · May 22, 2008

How high do you think our economy can handle?

I think maybe $6-7 a gallon is when we would start to feel some serious effects. Right now, we're all complaining but we're still standing in line to buy Grand Theft Auto 4 at $50 a pop.

I am not an economist, so I don't know what an exact number would be... it is just my opinion that $12-15 a gallon will never be reached, it's just too much.

MeanGreenEngineer · May 22, 2008

My vision is of a world where oil flows freely from Alaska and Colorado and North Dakota and the Gulf and the coast of California and Florida...

So, you are saying 'GIVE US YOUR GASOLINE!".

But everyone says "It won't make a difference" out one side of their mouth while claiming "Supply all over the world is peaking" out the other.

How are those mutually exclusive, it won't matter how we increase production in the long run, because can't meet growth.

As far as "We're screwed" after we use up all our oil, maybe and maybe not. We're talking about proven reserves. They just found 200 billion barrels in North Dakota that will take some extra work to get to, but it is there.

And most of those are going to be much more expensive. You are going to get $2.25 a gallon gasoline out of Canadian Oil Sands.

13 years is a long time to develop alternative fuels. With the current oil crisis, this may be the time to shut down imports, open up our own reserves, drill ANWR and other reserves, but with the condition that they come up with something new within a 10 year deadline or face stiff excise fees... I'm talking billions.

What CEO in their right mind would agree to that sword of damocles dangling over them?

The only proper way is to enforce higher efficiency standards on everything. Autos, homes, electronics, let the market self correct by raising gas prices and forcing people to live closer to work and not travel as much.

Of course, that won't make Oil Companies billions, so I am guessing you aren't too interested in that.