Sports Network - N T V Navy Comments/prediction

MeanGreen61 · November 7, 2007

Navy (5-4) at North Texas (1-7)

The Sports Network

DATE & TIME: Saturday, November 10th, 4:00 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Fouts Field (30,500) -- Denton, Texas. Television: None. Home Record: Navy 2-3, N. Texas 1-2. Away Record: Navy 3-1, N. Texas 0-5. Neutral Record: Navy 0-0, N. Texas 0-0. Conference Record: Navy 0-0, N. Texas 1-4. Series Record: First-ever meeting.

GAME NOTES: Coming off their historic win over Notre Dame, the Navy Midshipmen travel to Fouts Field for a bout with the North Texas Mean Green. Navy's 46-44 triple-overtime win over UND was the program's first defeat of the Fighting Irish in 44 years. It also snapped a two-game slide for the Midshipmen, who are a respectable 3-1 in road games this year. By earning a fourth road victory this weekend, Navy would lock up a spot in the Poinsettia Bowl, to be played December 20th in San Diego. However, four of Navy's final five opponents will have had two weeks to prepare for the Midshipmen, and one of those is this week's foe. North Texas has been idle since a 48-28 loss to Middle Tennessee on October 27th. The Mean Green boast a legitimate passing attack, but they've often been playing from behind thanks to a leaky defense that ranks among the nation's worst. North Texas will play one more home game this season, a November 24th matchup with Western Kentucky that is sandwiched in between two road games for the Mean Green. This contest marks the first-ever meeting between these two schools on the gridiron.

As is annually the case for Navy's triple-option offense under coach Paul Johnson, the Midshipmen once again possess the nation's top rushing attack. Navy's 333.33 rushing yards per game obviously comes at the expense of the passing game, which ranks dead-last in the nation (104.67 ypg). Quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is the catalyst of the offense. He leads the team in rushing with 78 ypg and has scored a team-high 11 touchdowns, to go along with five passing TDs. Eric Kettani is getting 70 ypg and has scored eight times, as six Midshipmen are averaging at least 40 ypg on the ground. Kaheaku-Enhada hooked up with Reggie Campbell for Navy's third touchdown in overtime last week, and found him again for the deciding two-point conversion to seal the win.

Defensively, the Midshipmen have struggled in several areas. For one, Navy ranks dead-last in the nation in net punting average (28.55), which has shortened the field for the defense. The Midshipmen front-seven has not been able to pressure opposing quarterbacks, as the team ranks 111th out of 119 FBS teams in sacks. The lack of pressure has allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for an average of 265 ypg, with Navy ranking last in the nation in pass efficiency defense. The Midshipmen are not so good against the run, either, allowing 185 ypg on the ground. All of that yardage has equated to an average of 38.78 ppg allowed this season. The Fighting Irish, who have struggled mightily on offense all season long, managed to put up 44 points against this unit last week.

The North Texas offense is the polar opposite of Navy's, as the Mean Green prefer to drop back and pass on nearly every down. The result has been a passing offense that ranks 12th in the nation with 297.88 ypg. Still, quarterback Giovanni Vizza has not been all that effective at times, which has certainly played a part in the team's 1-7 record. He is completing only 53 percent of his passes, and has thrown 12 interceptions with only eight touchdowns. Against Middle Tennessee two weeks ago, he threw four interceptions. Due to the high volume of passes, wideouts Casey Fitzgerald and Sam Dibrell each had 100-yard receiving games. Fitzgerald is the team's best weapon in the passing game, with team-highs in catches (72), yards (992) and touchdowns (seven).

The North Texas defense has been abused to the tune of 46.5 ppg this season. That figure, not surprisingly, is the worst points-allowed average in the nation. The Mean Green are allowing 209 ypg on the ground, and 289 ypg through the air. They do not create many turnovers (minus-0.88) or generate a whole lot of sacks (1.38 per game, 103rd in the nation). In fact, only three players have recorded a sack for North Texas this season. Middle Tennessee, by no means a national powerhouse, scored on all six of its trips to the red zone en route to a 48-point output. The Blue Raiders did not put up a whole lot of yards, but they were extremely efficient in North Texas territory, as the Mean Green put up little fight with their backs to the wall.

On paper, Navy's commitment to the ground game is the perfect weapon to control the clock and keep the North Texas offense off the field. As long as the Midshipmen do not give up too many big plays in the passing game, they should be able to wrap up that Poinsettia Bowl berth.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Navy 41, North Texas 28