A Sbc Vs. C-usa Study

Censored by Laurie · September 17, 2007

Following what may have been the biggest weekend for the SBC since 2002's New Orleans Bowl victory , I decided to do a Norm-like statistical breakdown of the conferences thus far.

C-USA vs. BCS conferences schools - 2-14. (UCF over NC St. 25-23; ECU over UNC 34-31). C-USA schools have 8 remaining games with BCS schools, plus 2 games with teams with BCS bowl aspirations, TCU vs. SMU and Southern Miss vs. Boise St...so 10 games will give them a total of 26 BCS school match-ups.

SBC vs. BCS conference schools - 2-13. (FAU over Minnesota 42-39; Troy over OK St. 41-23). SBC schools have 11 remaining games with BCS schools...giving them a total of 26 BCS school match-ups.

C-USA vs. AP Top 25 (as of 9/17) - 0-4. C-USA schools have 5 remaining games with AP Top 25 schools.

SBC vs. AP Top 25 (as of 9/17) - 0-9. SBC schools have 5 remaing games with AP Top 25 schools.

C-USA vs. FCS schools - 3-2. Losses - (U. New Hampshire over Marshall 48-35; Nichols St. over Rice 16-14). C-USA schools have 3 remaining games against FCS schools (UH vs. Tex. Southern; UTEP vs. Tex. Southern; Tulane vs. SE-Louisiana)

SBC vs. FCS schools - 0-1. Loss - (McNeese St. over UL-La 38-17) SBC schools have 1 remaining game against FCS schools (UL-M vs. Grambling).

C-USA vs. SBC - 2-1. SBC win - (ASU over SMU 45-28) C-USA wins - (SMU over UNT 45-31; Tulsa over UL-M 35-17)

Remaining C-USA vs. SBC games - Memphis vs. ASU; So. Miss vs. ASU; UCF vs. UL-La; Memphis vs. MTSU)

Summary - In the end, it all comes down to what happens on the field...however there are some interesting notes to be gleaned from this type of statistical analysis. The two conferences will play the same number of games against BCS school, however the SBC has only 8 teams to CUSA's 12. So far its a dead heat with two wins a piece. The Top 25 will change throughout the year and I didn't feel like seeing who was ranked when...and I think this will prove to be a wash by the end of the year, with neither conference getting a Top 25 victory...though it should be noted that both FAU and UCF will play South Florida, currently ranked number 23. Oh, and speaking of the Top 25, Tulsa is the only school in either conference to register a vote in this weeks AP Poll...they got 1. The next section is fascinating to me. C-USA will play 8 games against FCS schools to the SBC's 2...C-USA already has two losses and could easilly have a third with Tulane. The head to head at this point is all but a wash...the SMU-UNT game clearly could've gone either way, ASU handled SMU; Tulsa handled UL-M. I think 3 of the remaining match-ups are winnable for the SBC...I'll give So. Miss a W against UL-La.

I think in the end the SBC will prove to be on par with C-USA...and the only remaining arguement for a move would be regional games and rivalries.

Green Lantern · September 17, 2007

I'll give So. Miss a W against UL-La

Probably safe after their showing against McNeese St.

Interesting read. It does seem that the two conferences are becoming more and more similar in terms of performance on the field.

NT03 · September 17, 2007

Excellent post CBL

Mean Green 93-98 · September 17, 2007

Good post. Thanks for the breakdown.

Smitty · September 17, 2007

Excellent research. Provides some interesting fuel for the debate over trying to join CUSA versus staying in the Belt.

SAGreenFan · September 17, 2007

Excellent research. Provides some interesting fuel for the debate over trying to join CUSA versus staying in the Belt.

Yeah, I really have no problem with the Belt anymore. This season should be an exciting one. The only pang I have about not being in CUSA is the lack of any Texas schools in the Belt. However, reading the CUSA message board is like reading a bunch of scathing notes passed around a 7th grade classroom, and their insistence that the Belt is just a bunch of Southern commuter schools with no history or tradition gets old. Its night and day compared to the Belt Board, there really seems to be a strong sense of unity between the football playing schools.

Edited September 17, 2007 by SAGreenFan

GoMeanGreen1999 · September 17, 2007

Following what may have been the biggest weekend for the SBC since 2002's New Orleans Bowl victory , I decided to do a Norm-like statistical breakdown of the conferences thus far.
C-USA vs. BCS conferences schools - 2-14. (UCF over NC St. 25-23; ECU over UNC 34-31). C-USA schools have 8 remaining games with BCS schools, plus 2 games with teams with BCS bowl aspirations, TCU vs. SMU and Southern Miss vs. Boise St...so 10 games will give them a total of 26 BCS school match-ups.
SBC vs. BCS conference schools - 2-13. (FAU over Minnesota 42-39; Troy over OK St. 41-23). SBC schools have 11 remaining games with BCS schools...giving them a total of 26 BCS school match-ups.
C-USA vs. AP Top 25 (as of 9/17) - 0-4. C-USA schools have 5 remaining games with AP Top 25 schools.
SBC vs. AP Top 25 (as of 9/17) - 0-9. SBC schools have 5 remaing games with AP Top 25 schools.
C-USA vs. FCS schools - 3-2. Losses - (U. New Hampshire over Marshall 48-35; Nichols St. over Rice 16-14). C-USA schools have 3 remaining games against FCS schools (UH vs. Tex. Southern; UTEP vs. Tex. Southern; Tulane vs. SE-Louisiana)
SBC vs. FCS schools - 0-1. Loss - (McNeese St. over UL-La 38-17) SBC schools have 1 remaining game against FCS schools (UL-M vs. Grambling).
C-USA vs. SBC - 2-1. SBC win - (ASU over SMU 45-28) C-USA wins - (SMU over UNT 45-31; Tulsa over UL-M 35-17)
Remaining C-USA vs. SBC games - Memphis vs. ASU; So. Miss vs. ASU; UCF vs. UL-La; Memphis vs. MTSU)
Summary - In the end, it all comes down to what happens on the field...however there are some interesting notes to be gleaned from this type of statistical analysis. The two conferences will play the same number of games against BCS school, however the SBC has only 8 teams to CUSA's 12. So far its a dead heat with two wins a piece. The Top 25 will change throughout the year and I didn't feel like seeing who was ranked when...and I think this will prove to be a wash by the end of the year, with neither conference getting a Top 25 victory...though it should be noted that both FAU and UCF will play South Florida, currently ranked number 23. Oh, and speaking of the Top 25, Tulsa is the only school in either conference to register a vote in this weeks AP Poll...they got 1. The next section is fascinating to me. C-USA will play 8 games against FCS schools to the SBC's 2...C-USA already has two losses and could easilly have a third with Tulane. The head to head at this point is all but a wash...the SMU-UNT game clearly could've gone either way, ASU handled SMU; Tulsa handled UL-M. I think 3 of the remaining match-ups are winnable for the SBC...I'll give So. Miss a W against UL-La.
I think in the end the SBC will prove to be on par with C-USA...and the only remaining arguement for a move would be regional games and rivalries.

Very good breakdown of the two conferences. I guess to some degree, I think C-USA is recognized nationally as being a better conference and much of it may have to do with 10 years ago and who was in it compared to today and who is in it.

Arkstfan · September 17, 2007

Yeah, I really have no problem with the Belt anymore. This season should be an exciting one. The only pang I have about not being in CUSA is the lack of any Texas schools in the Belt. However, reading the CUSA message board is like reading a bunch of scathing notes passed around a 7th grade classroom. And the insistance that the Belt is just a bunch of Southern commuter schools. Its night and day compared to the Belt Board, there really seems to be a strong sense of unity between the football playing schools.

Most Sun Belt football schools aren't true commuter campuses. FAU and FIU probably more than anyone but as I recall UNT has quite a few on-campus residents.

Conference USA lacks historic ties except for a few clusters of schools that have been in other affiliations together before, same story for the Sun Belt.

Conference USA has geography issues, as does the Belt.

Conference USA has issues with basketball/football focus, as does the Belt.

Conference USA has issues of public vs. private with their schools, which the Belt does not have.

What makes the difference is that CUSA has more fans with a "we're better than his $hithole conference" attitude. SMU, Rice, and Houston all have memories of being nationally ranked in a top conference (admittedly old memories for Rice). East Carolina has been ranked in somewhat recent memory as have Marshall and Southern Miss. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, and Tulsa have been serious national powers at times in basketball (Memphis is now). The SWC leftovers are still stinging by being shunned by the Big 12 and then watched TCU move on without them. The old CUSA schools are stewing over Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF moved on to the Big East. The fans grumble about the Sun Belt being schools that recently moved to I-A, yet UAB and Marshall are in that same boat and see ya later USF was as well.

The core problem is a belief that it is their manifest destiny to be THE challengers to the BCS rich boys or be THE next in line to get promoted. When the reality of the level of play hits them anger is the natural response.

Belt fans are mostly glad to fight against "the man" and share similar experiences of fighting for ounce of respect.

SAGreenFan · September 17, 2007

Most Sun Belt football schools aren't true commuter campuses. FAU and FIU probably more than anyone but as I recall UNT has quite a few on-campus residents.

Yeah i had a punctuation malfunction. Im dead tired of the "commuter" school crap, but before this becomes a what is a commuter school discussion, I've edited my last post...

Go Belt!!!... Boo CUSA!!!

Censored by Laurie · September 17, 2007

Belt fans are mostly glad to fight against "the man" and share similar experiences of fighting for ounce of respect.

And I think that attitude is a direct reflection of the attitude of the school...Belt schools always seem to load up their schedules with national powers and statement games...some of these are viewed as money games, but others like Troy vs. OSU, FAU vs. Minnesota and UNT vs. Arkansas ( :thumbsup: ) are viewed as games we think we can win and make a national statement. It seems C-USA is content to load up with FCS schools to make sure they get to 6 wins and are bowl eligible.

Eagle1855 · September 17, 2007

well said, ArkStatefan. I'm impressed with the level of commitment some of the Sun Belt schools have shown to athletics. As you know, I've always been a Sun Belt hater, and while I still would rather have some more regionally-appealing games (against the likes of SMU, UH, Rice, etc) on a consistent basis, it feels good watching your conference mates take it to the "big" schools. I think that commitment to become legitimate programs separates us from many of the C-USA also-rans and used-to-be's...

Im not ready (just yet) to convert to a full-on Sun Belt supporter, but I'm getting there... the level of play we've seen lately certainly helps!

AnotherEagleFan · September 17, 2007

That is great. But in reality this is what people look at.

Sunbelt Conference (8 teams) record = 4 - 18

C-USA East (6 teams) record = 6 - 10

C-USA West (6 teams) record = 5 - 10

eulesseagle · September 18, 2007

CBL-

Interesting post but all this comes down to who has the "best" regional appeal?

CUSA-West has the best regional fit than any other mid-major conference in the nation including the SBC.

Do not get me wrong I enjoy watching UNT play anyone but I could get "more" excited about playing SMU, Houston, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa and Tulane every year.

CBL-

I would imagine you would probably find no deviance in your "stats" if you compared the SBC/CUSA with the MAC.

NM Green · September 18, 2007

I'll take it one step further. How long before we can throw bait to a couple of other programs to see if we get a nibble. For example, LA Tech has to be looking at the improved Belt and thinking if the SBC gets one more bowl guarantee should we think about applying? I would like state programs with decent followings like a Southern Miss to join Troy in the heart of the football south. UAB would be a nice fit but they have a poor following. La Tech would be a natural with 2 other programs in the state and 1 3 hours West. Heck, the Bulldogs have one to the north, the SE, the NW. It would make perfect sense for La Tech to leave the WAC sooner than later. If we could lure Southern Miss, La Tech, UCF and Memphis now you are talking about 2 divisions with some solid name recognition a couple of more bowls and the key - MORE FANS.

I personally don't see Marshall, ECU, UCF, Houston, SMU, UTEP and Rice going anywhere. Tulane is not a good draw and Rice will go with the flow. UTEP is attached at the hip with SMU, Rice and H-town.

Keep winning. Win head to heads. Build FANBASES! Get the BCS at home and get on TV.

Bring on FAU!

GO MEAN GREEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FirefightnRick · September 18, 2007

Good stuff CBL.

As I have reminded for 6 years now, build the belt. So many people want recognition, now and don't realize it takes time. It took the MAC conference 14 years to send two teams to a bowl game. It only took the belt 4.

Not to redirect the thread, but I noticed less non BCS school bashing this weekend by the so called experts on tv. Especially with the call in by Kirk Herbstreet during the Troy vs OSU game. That was amazing if you didn't see it? Something that I noticed a long time ago, even back when NT was 1-AA. People don't realize that not EVERYONE can play for a top 65 BCS program, and there are a hell of a lot more kids playing football now days and trying to go to college. Look at the growth just in the Tarrant and Denton county areas alone. Since the 80's, Mansfield has what, 4, 5 high schools now up from 1? Keller 4 up from 1? Crowley has 2 up from 1, Burleson is getting ready to turn dirt on their second HS. Denton has 3 now up from 1? Saginaw has 2 up from 1. Then look at the size increase of the little schools due to the same growth? Aledo is 4A and will be 5A soon up from 3A, SLC 5A up from 2A, and on and on. Compound this tiny area with the entire state, the entire nation and you can imagine the increase in numbers and growth of players coming out of the HS ranks wanting to play college ball. They all can't attend said BCS schools. This solidifies that the smaller programs who are growing will start to get their shots at better and better players. The sky is the limit on it and the quality of play will continue to rise for the little guys and it's exciting to see it happen.

Rick

Censored by Laurie · September 18, 2007

CBL-
Interesting post but all this comes down to who has the "best" regional appeal?
CUSA-West has the best regional fit than any other mid-major conference in the nation including the SBC.
Do not get me wrong I enjoy watching UNT play anyone but I could get "more" excited about playing SMU, Houston, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa and Tulane every year.
CBL-
I would imagine you would probably find no deviance in your "stats" if you compared the SBC/CUSA with the MAC.

I agree 100% with the regional appeal of C-USA West...and I mention that at the end of my post...I just grow tired of the idea that we are wallowing in the sewer of Division 1 football, and for that matter basketball. The SBC has shown a great commitment to athletics and I love the fact that all the schools seem to pull for the success of their conference mates...could you ever see an SMU fan cheer for Houston to win an OOC game?

With WKU joining and knowing the support they have from fans and admin for athletics, they could be on a similar path as Troy. Add a possibile move by Texas St. once the NCAA lifts the moratorium on division movement...and you have a conference of 10 very intriguing programs.

I'll take it one step further. How long before we can throw bait to a couple of other programs to see if we get a nibble. For example, LA Tech has to be looking at the improved Belt and thinking if the SBC gets one more bowl guarantee should we think about applying? I would like state programs with decent followings like a Southern Miss to join Troy in the heart of the football south. UAB would be a nice fit but they have a poor following. La Tech would be a natural with 2 other programs in the state and 1 3 hours West. Heck, the Bulldogs have one to the north, the SE, the NW. It would make perfect sense for La Tech to leave the WAC sooner than later. If we could lure Southern Miss, La Tech, UCF and Memphis now you are talking about 2 divisions with some solid name recognition a couple of more bowls and the key - MORE FANS.

The only problem with this is that the SBC has 13 schools...four just don't have football programs...and, much like the Big East, the Sun Belt is still a basketball conference. I think you may have wiggle room to add three programs in the next five yers if our improved play continues. Texas St. would be a great addition and create what we ohhh so desperatly want and need in a regional rival. Denver is seeking a more logical fit and UNO may be dropping to D-II or getting rid of athletics altogether for a while...so that would free up 2 more spots. La Tech makes regional sense...I just have a hard time believing just one school would make what would be at best considered a lateral move from C-USA...but your best bet would be Tulsa or Tulane.

Arkstfan · September 18, 2007

Denver has to have more sports in place or has to find a new home for the 2013 season. They will not add the needed sports because they couldn't do it without cutting some of their other sports like skiing and hockey that they are very good at.

I think UNO's fate is up in the air. They need to add back the sports they had before Katrina and add one more. Unless enrollment continues to rise that may not be financially feasible.