Preparing For Fau

[Green to the Bone]

Coach Howard ("Which team is Todd Dodge with?") Schnellenberger and the FAU Owls come to Fouts in a couple of weeks for our home opener. They're 1-1 right now; they beat MTSU 27-14 but got clobbered Saturday by Oklahoma State, 42-6. Next Saturday, they play Minnesota (1-1) at home.

The first area in which we can beat them is attendance. They got 11,000 and change in their only home game so far. We'll stomp on that number pretty hard, but I'd like to think we can double that when they come to Denton. Not a prediction, but I don't think it's unreachable.

Despite an apparently deeply rooted belief among some that statistics are for losers and crybabies, the thinking world of grown-ups wants to know how we stack up. OK, I got my pencil and made some comparative notes between us and the Owls, mostly on offense. These are cumulative for 2007, two games each.

My column formatting's not perfect. I've also corrected some typos in the first post of this.

Category FAU UNT

1st Downs 34 44

By Rushing 16 8

By Passing 13 35

By Penalty 5 1

Net Rushing 244 27

Attempts 76 52

Avg per 3.2 0.5

Yards gained 303 138

Yards lost 59 111

Net passing 370 833

A-C-I 59-31-2 102-65-6

Avg per att 6.3 8.2

Avg per comp 11.9 12.8

Fumbles-lost 2-1 4-1

Punts-yards 16-615 14-588

Avg 38.4 42

Net 27.6 38.4

3rd D Conv 5/27 (19%) 9/30 (30%)

Touchdowns 3 5

By Rushing 1 1

By Passing 2 4

FG made-att 4-5 2-2

Total points 33 41

Analysis: Our passing superiority vastly overpowers their rushing superiority. How can I say that? We have scored as many rushing TDs as they have, but added 4 more TDs in the air, twice their number. We have made many more first downs than they have and a far better 3rd down conversion record. We are also more fumble-fingered, but have lost only one; still, fumbles must drop (pun intended).

Comparing passing to passing, they have thrown 2 picks in 59 attempts, compared to our 6 in 102 attempts; ours is clearly the worse actual and percentage record of keeping the ball in friendly hands. That said, the completion rates have more than made up the difference so far; they have completed just over half of the attempts, while we have completed nearly two-thirds, a very, very fine figure indeed. And our average per catch is significantly higher.

Our punting game is decidedly better. Field goals are pretty even in accuracy. I haven't researched distance.

Conclusion: FAU has faced some tough opponents and has another to go against next week; the Gophers are coming off a dramatic, triple-OT win against Miami (Ohio). Since FAU doesn't have a bye next week, they will have just one week to prepare for the Mean Green; we, on the other hand, have a long lead time on their game films.

FAU has posted some good numbers, but they have some decided disadvantages against UNT. They are unlikely to create an explosive aerial game at this point in the season; it will be an easier task for UNT to find a way to make progress on the ground. Since UNT's passing offense has been much more TD-productive than FAU's rushing offense, the scoreboard is clearly leaning toward UNT.

Given these statistics, UNT's offensive job in the next two weeks will be to work on reducing interceptions, which are a concern, and developing at least the appearance of a running attack that can take some pressure off DM's arm. We don't have a balanced offense now, but Dodge has said he wants one, so I assume they will work on that. If that happens, it is likely to make the passing game look even better, since it will add an additional element of doubt in the defenders' minds and will keep DM's arm fresher, thus impacting the interceptions.

In other words, we have a little developing and a little adjusting to do, while FAU has a good bit of developing to do. With all these circumstances combined, I'm predicting a 2-TD victory on the 22nd.

Not because I drank the green Kool-Ade, but because of those annoying little losers' tools, statistics.

Edited September 10, 2007 by Green to the Bone

[ParksAndRecRick]

Green ot the Bone alluded to it in his post...but, their supposedly big time Coach had some not too impressive comments about Coach Dodge. Stuff like, "I never heard of him." And, "who is he with". I would say that is probably the only Division I Coach who could say that.

I truely believe after the game....He will know who Coach Dodge is!!!!!!!

C'mon Mean Green Nation. Let's do 30,000 peeps at our Home Opener!

Remember... "The Journey is JUST beginning!"

ParksAndRecRick

[SilverEagle]

Green ot the Bone alluded to it in his post...but, their supposedly big time Coach had some not too impressive comments about Coach Dodge. Stuff like, "I never heard of him." And, "who is he with". I would say that is probably the only Division I Coach who could say that.

I truely believe after the game....He will know who Coach Dodge is!!!!!!!

C'mon Mean Green Nation. Let's do 30,000 peeps at our Home Opener!

Remember... "The Journey is JUST beginning!"

ParksAndRecRick

Besides, who could pass up an opportunity to see Captain Kangaroo in person.

[SLCoutsider]

Here's another gem from Schellenberger. In response to the 10 oral commitments that UNT has for the 2008 recruiting class...

Schnellenberger said such aggressive recruiting "runs counter to what we believe." "We want them to take all their visits and then decide once and for all if they really want to play for us," he said. "That's never going to change."

Source: Ft Worth Star Telegram - http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/story/215050.html

[ShopMeanGreen]

Here's another gem from Schellenberger. In response to the 10 oral commitments that UNT has for the 2008 recruiting class...

Schnellenberger said such aggressive recruiting "runs counter to what we believe." "We want them to take all their visits and then decide once and for all if they really want to play for us," he said. "That's never going to change."

Source: Ft Worth Star Telegram - http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/story/215050.html

I love that comment. Pretty much the same as we'll take the players no one else really wanted. If you have lots to pick from ie UT, OK, LSU etc that my work. The early bird gets the worm.

[pollock]

I can't believe it, but I'm chomping at the bit to play FAU this year. It makes me so sick that we haven't beaten them.

That ends in 13 days.

Hey Schnellenberger, Duck!