Jaydub's Game Day Weather Forecast....

[JayDub]

Well boys and girls, here's to hoping it stays dry long enough to put a whippin' on SMUt.

The latest Surface Weather Prog Chart shows a stationary front giving way to a surface low-pressure trough tomorrow afternoon. It should sit on top of the North Texas area tomorrow evening...slightly more to the west of the metroplex 'til late. Since precipitation tends to come down on the east side of a surface trough (air rises, cools, condenses, blah, blah, blah)...expect some rain and convective storms. Thunderstorm probability at game time will be low...but late tomorrow evening (possibly late in the game) expect some thunderbumpers to roll through the area. I could break out what the Lifted/K Indexes are indicating...but I'll spare you.

All in all...I think there's a decent chance of some rain coming down during the game. I'm giving it a 60% chance of rain. Take an umbrella or rainjacket....or some plastic Safeway grocery bags...to stay dry.

With all that said...you still have no excuse to go cheer on the Mean Green!

Edited September 8, 2007 by JayDub

[JayDub]

Update...

Looks like that area of low pressure may stay north of the Texas/Oklahoma border...so I'll drop my chance of rain/storms tonight down to 40%.

[NM Green]

Obviously you stayed west like I did this weekend. Heading home for the opener!

GMG

[UNT_92_Fan]

u really need a little bowtie mr. finfrock...

[Texas Stranger]

The K-Index is not used widely in these parts, it's more of a tropical regime tool for airmass activity. The best severity indexes are the Lifted Index (lowest 100 mb method) and Total-Totals, even though TT does have the same problem that Showalter Index has (850mb dewpoint may or may not be representative of low-level moisture). The SWEAT Index works well here as well since it has an argument for wind direction turning with height.

Have you done the RAP/UCAR online modules ? Great stuff.

About the game conditions, it will depend on whether afternoon convection in OK can produce strong enough outflow to bump the front. Hope not, but possible.

[JayDub]

The K-Index is not used widely in these parts, it's more of a tropical regime tool for airmass activity.

I use the hell outta the Lifted/K Indexes for planning everyday...and I've found them to be semi-reliable. I'm still learning alot of this crap...and of course, I don't really plan for outdoor activity...I just plan for getting from point A to point B.