Early Lines For The Smu Game

SouthBendGreen · September 4, 2007

All of the Vegas casinos have the line out and ranging anywhere from SMU -16.5 to -17.

Wow that's a big number IMO. Are they that much better than us?

KingDL1 · September 4, 2007

No they are not.

I would take that bet, if I was in Vegas.

It is just generic math for the odds makers, new coach, new system, young players, and OU score. SMU has seasoned players and there are many predicting them to win CUSA.

GreenTiger_OriginalAcct · September 4, 2007

Is that the spread or the over/under for SMU's points scored on Saturday? SMU put up 3 FGs on a bad, bad Tech defense.

Smitty · September 4, 2007

No they are not.
I would take that bet, if I was in Vegas.
It is just generic math for the odds makers, new coach, new system, young players, and OU score. SMU has seasoned players and there are many predicting them to win CUSA.

Actually, the line is as much an evaluation of the bettors as it is an evaluation of a game. The only thing the bookies care about is having the same amount of money bet on each team - that way, the bookies win before the game kicks off. The line and/or odds are the way they even out the wagering. Based on reputation, expectations, and last week's results, the bookies estimated that they would have to give 16-17 points to get half the gamblers to take UNT. The line is not so much an indication of how the bookies view the game, but an indication of how the bookies believe the public views the game.

KingDL1 · September 4, 2007

Actually, the line is as much an evaluation of the bettors as it is an evaluation of a game. The only thing the bookies care about is having the same amount of money bet on each team - that way, the bookies win before the game kicks off. The line and/or odds are the way they even out the wagering. Based on reputation, expectations, and last week's results, the bookies estimated that they would have to give 16-17 points to get half the gamblers to take UNT. The line is not so much an indication of how the bookies view the game, but an indication of how the bookies believe the public views the game.

I never thought about that way and you are probably right, though the generic math is still how I would look at from the outside so it still kind of works.

SouthBendGreen · September 4, 2007

yea, but they're not going to give a crazy out of whack line that would be foolish. Yes, you are right about getting equal action, but they have to figure out also what a legit line would be. I'm sure the line will be bet down, but that still means the Vegas boys think SMU is at least a 2 TD favorite. That's still a lot of points IMO.

Cooley · September 4, 2007

http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football_Div1A_Rankings.asp

gangrene · September 4, 2007

Speaking of betting, some person, or persons made, a butt-load off of TROY last weekend. That line opened at somewhere around 28 and had dropped to 23 by game time. Troy lost 46-26 and beat the spread. As someone that places an occasional wager, I know it takes a lot of one-way betting to swing the line by 5 points.

gangrene · September 4, 2007

http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football_Div1A_Rankings.asp

Excellent!!! We are ranked #119...three spots behind Western Kentucky and sandwiched in between Utah State and FIU.

GoMeanGreen1999 · September 4, 2007

that line doesn't shock me. I figured it would be between 14 and 20. I still think we will win.

Tramp96 · September 4, 2007

Don't be fooled...SMU has some very decent team speed. Not OU speed, but they held their own against Tech in terms of overall team speed. I think SMU is going to be a pretty good team this year, and Monday's game against Tech is probably more an indication of the level of play of the Big XII South than it is of SMU. UNT will have to play mistake-free football and try and find ways to neutralize SMU's speed...because without a doubt, they will be one of the fastest teams UNT faces this year (not OU fast, but then, not many teams are OU fast).