The New Kick Off Rule - From The 30yd Line

Charlie NT 73 · August 24, 2007

I was thinking about this new rule. I see the kick off from the 30 yard

changing the strategy of which team will kick off and which team

receives the ball. The winner of the coin flip has a big advantage!

If my team wins the coin flip, I want to receive. A "average" return

of 20 yards will put you out to the 30 or better. If the KO team has

a personal foul penality, I take the penality, and force the opponent

to kick off again from their 15yd line. Big difference in field position.

So looks like to me, each team that wins the begining of the game

coin flip, will want to receive the ball and go on offense first.

What do you think is the best strategy on handling the kick off now?

Do you kick or do you receive?

NTPhiKap99 · August 24, 2007

I really don’t see what the big deal is. I do see touchbacks going way down but average field position should only change by about 5 yards. As for penalties you pretty much always accepted a 15 yard penalty before since they were already kicking from the 20. Does making more returns give you a better shot at a big return yes but I really can’t see this drastically changing strategy like some people think.

Smitty · August 24, 2007

Doesn't matter. If you get the ball to start the game, the other guy gets it to start the second half. And the NFL has found that winning the toss in overtime is not a strong indicator of who wins the OT.

Where the new rule could come into play is if you have a really good return man. What the colleges are trying to do is the same thing the NFL tried to do when they moved the kickoff back - increase the number of returns. Touchbacks are boring, returns are exciting. So, the advantage will not go to who wins the toss, but to who can still kick it deep and who has good returners. The great return men will have the biggest advantage, because they'll have more opportunities.

Otherwise, it's not a big deal. On average, you're only talking about five extra yards, and if your offense can't go 80 yards, it probably can't go 75, either.

Greenblood94 · August 24, 2007

If the KO team has a personal foul penality, I take the penality, and force the opponent to kick off again from their 15yd line. Big difference in field position.
What do you think is the best strategy on handling the kick off now? Do you kick or do you receive?

A personal foul penalty would be tacked on to the end of the return, unless it happened prior to the receiving team getting the ball, which is a highly unlikely occurrance.

I still prefer getting the ball to start the second half, unless the wind is going to be a huge factor in the game. You put your defense in a position to make a statement at the beginning of the game, and you can change or continue momentum by getting the ball to start the second half.

I don't think the extra five yards will make that big of a difference in the long run.

Arkstfan · August 24, 2007

In the NFL the team winning the toss in OT wins 52% of the time which isn't that big of a deal but 28% of the time the team winning the toss scores without the kicking team touching the ball. If you lose the toss and don't give up a score on the opening drive you will win 66.6% of the time.

Now the supposed logic for deferring is two-fold. First coaches believe that if their defense can stop the opening drive they have an advantage in the field position battle. The NFL OT numbers back that up. The AFCA has done its own study and found that the team that kicks off to start the game will generally get one more possession per game than the receiving team.

I expect the rule change to have a huge impact.

Not because the average return length will go up, I would rather expect it to fall, remember the average kick return is a bit over 20 yards. Teams with good return capability are already brining it out of the end zone. Average to poor are taking the touchback. They will now be catching the ball in the field of play and being forced to make a return. Last year when ASU played Auburn, they kicked off 6 times, 5 were touchbacks, 1 was returned to the 12. Against Oklahoma State six kickoffs 2 touchbacks, four returned none made it to the 20. UNT vs. Texas 9 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 4 returned to the 35, 28, 22, 4. Troy v. FSU. Five kickoffs, two big returns, one touchback, two short returns.

If you've got coverage and pretty good kicker, you can actually force some bad field position with the longer kick.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT

Will be coaches. If they aren't confident, you will see a lot of shorter kicks aimed at the corners or kicked for height to help coverage, maybe even more squib kicks. Corner kicks produce a risk of kicking out-of-bounds giving up good field position. High kicks are shorter also helping field position and squib kicks also lack depth plus allow for misdirection plays by the return team.