Stewart Mandel - Recruiting Question

SHOSS · July 30, 2007

I really enjoy reading Steward Mandel every chance I get on CNNSI.com... Hopefully one day UNT will get some ink(or ascii) from this guy. Most folks that follow the lesser tier college football programs already know this to be true, but it is kind of nice to see this stated by someone who evaluates college football at the national level... Just may be more reason that the new recruits UNT is pulling(even for 2008 already) are almost certainly being under-valued by those national tracking sites...***cough*** rivals...scout...***cough*** I swear I've seen some of the guys ranked at 3 stars before committing to UNT and then afterwards are downgraded to 2... Maybe it is the green coolaid I'm drinkin... Enjoy.

Mailbag entry last week: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writ.../mailbag/1.html

I have a question for you: How come teams like TCU, Louisville, etc., can be in the top 25 consistently for the last seven years and yet they NEVER show up on anyone's "top recruiting" lists. Apparently they are getting some good kids ... so why do only the big schools make the lists?

-- Forrest Tempel, Fort Worth, Texas

For the most part, I think recruiting analysts do a pretty good job identifying the elite players in any given recruiting class. I've done research on the subject many times through the years, including for Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls, and the top 25-50 prospects in the country by and large turn into very successful college players. Once you go further down the list, however, it gets a lot more difficult, and it's here where I think the recruiting rankings can be a little misleading. First of all, it's not like coaches rely on recruiting rankings to decide whom they're going to pursue. Coaches do their own, very thorough evaluations of hundreds and hundreds of prospects, and their opinion of a kid may differ from that of the analysts.

Furthermore, there's the self-fulfilling prophecy that, if Player A is being recruited by Florida State, Miami and USC while Player B is being recruited by TCU, Louisville and Memphis, the analysts are going to take that as a sign that Player A should be ranked significantly higher than Player B. It could well be, however, that Player B is just as good as Player A, it's just that TCU's coaches saw something different on tape than Florida State's coaches. This isn't necessarily an indictment against those Florida State coaches, it's just that evaluating most recruits really is that subjective.

I know I'm already trying to sell you on one book, but for a truly fascinating window into this very topic, you're going to want to pick up a second one this fall, Meat Market by Bruce Feldman. Feldman spent much of the past season inside Ole Miss' war room and shares first-hand details on the coaches' evaluation process. It's more complicated than you might think.

UNTLifer · July 30, 2007

Instead of talking about USC's receivers or Michigan's defense, I'm curious about something completely different. Of the BCS teams, which do you consider the most irrelevant and why? For instance ,if it's Washington State, is it because you never see them on TV living on the East Coast? If it's Duke, is it because they haven't been any good since Spurrier coached there, etc.
-- Dan, Spokane, Wash.
Wow -- a Mr. Irrelevant for BCS programs. I like it. And it's a tough choice. I can assure you it's not Wazzu because the Cougars have played in two Rose Bowls within the past decade. Duke would seem like the obvious candidate seeing as the Blue Devils have been such an absolute non-factor for so long now. However, I do think there's still a modicum of interest just because Duke is such a well-known school and there's a familiarity with the Blue Devils among sports fans because of basketball.
So I hereby bestow this dubious honor on Baylor. The timing is a bit unfair, seeing as the Bears have enjoyed their two best Big 12 seasons these past two years and are finally gaining some semblance of respectability under Guy Morriss. Nevertheless, facts are facts: Eleven straight losing seasons since joining the Big 12; a combined conference record of 11-77; but more importantly, I defy anyone outside of Big 12 country to name a Baylor player, recent or current. And when was the last time you saw a Baylor game on TV?