Middle Tennessee

[Censored by Laurie]

In a very deep SBC East, Middle Tennesse will be competitive...however they are the poster boy for the "year away" label. The Blue Raiders will have one senior in Adam Vogelsburg, assuming the shooting guard plans to come back to the team after a year lay-off. If not, the Middle Tennessee roster will be led by seven juniors and a handful of talented underclassmen. Coach Kermit Davis has brought some respectability to the MTSU program, however his teams have stalled out in the SBC semi-finals the past 3 seasons. Davis may be given a pass this year, however 08-09 may be his hot seat season.

Projected Starters:

• PG. Kevin Kanaskie 6'2" 182 Jr.
• SG. Adam Vogelsburg 6'4" 180 Sr. / Calvin O'Neil 6'4" 190 Jr.
• SF. Demetrius Green 6'4" 190 Jr.
• PF. Desmond Yates 6'7" 220 Soph.
• C. Uriah Hethington 6'9" 215 Jr.

Frontcourt: Gone from Murfreesboro are stalwart posts Kyle Young (6'10" 220) and Tim Blue (6'9" 220). Both were solid players, however both saw their production decrease last season as Kermit Davis moved to a more up-tempo style. Desmond Yates (6'7" 220 Soph.) excelled in his freshman season. While the athletic forward averaged 10.9 points per game, foul trouble limited what could've been a monster debut season. Yates fouled out of 5 contests last season and his best games, including a 23 point performance against Arkansas State, were those where he avoided cheap personals. A year of maturity should help. Perhaps Yates' greatest upside is his ability to shoot free throws, shooting 73% for the season, including a 15-16 shooting display against New Orleans. Highly anticipated is Uriah Hethington's (6'9" 215 Jr.) arrival in Murfreesboro. The JUCO transfer lefty post has a 36-inch vertical and should thrive in a fast paced attack. Hethington's arrival will push returnee Theryn Hudson (6'10" 235) into a reserve role. Hudson is the strongest member of the Blue Raiders and will be counted on to be a defensive cog. Hudson managed solid numbers last season (5.9ppg, 3.6rpg) however he doesn't fit well into the system Davis is implementing and will have to increase his mobility to increase his minutes. Deno Hair (6'9' 200 Soph.) should see an expanded role once Hudson's minutes decrease. Hair is an athletic, long armed forward whose contribution was minimal last season (1.9ppg, .9rpg), but the former Alabama Mr. Basketball may be asked to look for his offense more this season. JUCO transfer Dexter Powell (6'5" 200) and freshman Josh Sain (6'5" 190) will see time in smaller line-ups while Kevin Dodd (6'9" 205 Fr.) is expected to redshirt.

Backcourt: Adam Vogelsburg's (6'4" 180 Sr.) return would be a huge boost, however the Raiders are by no means lost without the sharpshooter. Vogelsburg sat out almost all of last season after leading the team in scoring during the 05-06 season (12.4ppg) complaining of burn out. Vogelsburg's departure last season allowed Kevin Kanaskie (6'2" 182 Jr.) to develop into one of the best guards in a guard rich conference. Kanaskie led the Raiders in scoring (12.2ppg), is MTSU's leading returning rebounder (3.8rpg) and led the Sun Belt in assists (5.8apg). Kanaskie thrives in an up-tempo style, has a high basketball IQ and will push for first team all SBC recognition in 07-08. Whatever Vogelsburg decides, much will be expected from Demetrius Green (6'4" 190 Jr.). Green sat out last season after transferring from Daytona Beach CC where he earned JUCO All-America honors. Green is touted as a well rounded wing who will take scoring pressure off of Kanaskie. Juniors Calvin O'Neil (6'4" 190) and Nigel Johnson (6'2" 185) split time in the starting line-up last season and one or both may be counted on heavily to increase their productivity if Vogelsburg doesn't return. O'Neil is the most likely to start at the 2, but he needs to become more consistent; dropping 21 on Troy and 17 on Ul-Lafayette, yet scoring two or fewer seven times. Johnson was steadier, but is counted on to back up Kanaskie at the point. Darren Avery (6'3" 200 Soph.) is a strong wing who will be looking to improve upon an under-impressive freshman campaign (2.3ppg, 1.0rpg). Recruits Broderick Gilchrist (6'0" 180) and Antwann Boyd (6'2" 190) are talented guards, but will have tough competition in front of them in a crowded backcourt.

Summary: Vogelsburg's return is important, but by no means a season make-or-breaker, and while it would be nice to have a senior on the roster, its tough to say how much senior leadership a guy who left the team for season and a half could provide. Kevin Kanaskie was asked to do a lot last season, and while he responded well, help is always nice. Winning the Sun Belt West this season is unlikely this year for Kermit Davis; anything short of that goal next season may cost him his job. Davis has a roster full of talented, young players and should be focused on developing chemistry and perfecting a new system this season. MTSU may finish just out of the East basement this year, with or without Vogelsburg, however look for them to be a favorite in 08-09.

Edited July 23, 2007 by Censored by Laurie

[KAjunRaider]

Not bad. Good stuff, and thanks!

[untgeorge]

Well, i don't know about up-tempo, MTSU finished the conference last in scoring offense and 1st in scoring defense. They didn't score as much as 80 points in a game even once during the season. Against USA and UNT in the conference tournament they tried to control the tempo and play at their pace, winning vs USA 63-60 in OT and losing to UNT 52-59. In other words, they neither gave up nor scored 60 pts in any conf tournament game, and they took only 44 shots vs USA. Davis is very good at making you play his game, which was a hard-nosed physical game, and he certainly kept both USA and UNT out of their offenses, which he had to do in the conf tournament because he didn't have the quickness or the athleticism of either USA or UNT.

That having been said, Kanaskie and Yates are solid blocks to build on. I liked O'Neill, too. It is surprising that a 215 lb newcomer would beat out Hudson at the center spot, Hudson's was his team's top scorer and rebounder in the tournament; but CbLs analysis (he is slow) is right on. However neither Wooden nor Williams or anyone else pushed Hudson around.

It is hard for an old dog to change his spots (is that a mixed metaphor, or what?) and Davis has been a take-your-time, take good shots coach at A&M and Idaho. He also coached under Brady at LSU; Brady thinks 65-64 is a high scoring game. It will be interesting to see Davis can change like that, even with an infusion of new athletic talent (hopefully quickness will come with that talent). I am an old cynic, so I will bet against.

[untgeorge]

I should add: good job, CbL. It takes lots of research and time to pull this stuff together. I hope everyone who follows basketball appreciates that.

[Cooley]

COACH AND PROGRAM

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

Last Season 15-17 (.469)

Conference Record 8-10 (t-4th)

Starters Lost/Returning 1/4

Coach Kermit Davis (Mississippi State '82)

Record At School 83-67 (5 years)

154-116 (9 years) Col 2

RPI Last 5 years 146-132-117-117-163

During Kermit Davis' five seasons at Middle Tennessee State the Blue Raiders have compiled the Sun Belt's third-best record (47-39), including a league-best 21-19 mark on the road. His 83 victories during that span are second in the program's history. Imagine what Davis could do if he could catch a break. Actually, that's a poor choice of words, the type of talk that, in light of a rash of key injuries and ailments in recent years, Davis seems to descend into with a sort of gallows humor while sizing up upcoming seasons. For three straight years the Blue Raiders have been eliminated from their conference tournament with their best player hobbled or out with an injury or illness. Leading scorer Adam Vogelsburg missed last season because of a shoulder injury, and 6-9 Tim Blue, a long, athletic slasher, was half the player he could have been as a senior because of a severe off-season knee injury.

Still, the youthful Blue Raiders and a valiant Blue scrambled to 15 victories and bounced back from a five-game losing streak in February to win three straight before a hard-fought loss to eventual champion North Texas in the tournament semifinals. MTSU eliminated defending tournament champion South Alabama in the quarterfinals after the Jaguars had won the East Division. Playing the role of spoiler wasn't what the Blue Raiders had in mind in November, but it ultimately seemed like a solid silver lining. ''You hate to use it as an excuse, but the truth is the truth,'' Davis said. ''As good as Florida was the last two years, and I don't mean to compare us to Florida, but I don't remember them having any significant injuries. I thought Western Kentucky probably had the best team in our league two years ago until Courtney Lee broke his hand at tournament time. It's hard to win without your best players.''

MTSU made the most of Vogelsburg's absence and Blue's injury-restricted contributions. The Blue Raiders had to win a first-round tournament game in a hostile environment at Troy before upsetting South Alabama at the neutral site (Lafayette, La.) in the quarterfinals. ''I was proud that our team got a lot better by the end of the season,'' Davis said, ''especially with us being so young. There were a lot of positives.''

PLAYERS

The leading returning scorer is 6-2 junior guard Kevin Kanaskie (12.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg). The long-armed point guard from State College, Pa., was third team All-Sun Belt after leading the league in assists (5.8 apg), which was 14th nationally.

A starter since the final 11 games of his freshman season, Kanaskie became the first player in school history to lead the team in scoring, assists (185) and three-pointers (67). His 1,184 minutes (37.0 mpg) were also a school record. ''He had to absorb a lot [with the injury to Vogelsburg],'' Davis said. ''We put a lot on him and he was so durable. His minutes need to go down, and we should have the depth for that to happen.'' Davis believes more breathers will aid Kanaskie's defense and his assist to turnover ratio, which wasn't shabby last season at nearly 2-to-1 (185-96).

''We think his ratio can go to two and a half- or three-to-one,'' Davis said. The ability of 6-2 junior Nigel Johnson (6.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg) to step in and run the offense in his first season out of junior college didn't translate into rest for Kanaskie, because he also proved capable on the wing. Johnson is probably even more of a combo guard. He has a burst with the dribble, good body control with his jump-stop and seemingly all of the necessary tools to be an exceptional player when polished. ''Nigel was trying to find his way a little bit like a lot of junior college kids,'' Davis said. ''The good thing about him is that he still has two years left. He's our fastest player with the ball and really helps our transition game. He also ended up being probably our best on-ball defender.''

Another experienced guard who is good off the dribble is 6-4 junior Calvin O'Neil (6.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg). After missing a month of his freshman season with a stress fracture in a foot, O'Neil was just finding his stride by the end of his sophomore campaign. He finished second on the team in assists and averaged a team-high 12.3 points during three league tourna-ment games. ''He started taking the ball to the basket more,'' Davis said. ''He can get to the rim off the dribble.''

Davis saw promise in the rookie season of 6-4 sophomore Darren Avery (2.3 ppg, 1.0 rpg), who averaged 12 minutes in 30 games and ended up starting eight times. Avery made 15-of-31 three-pointers, which wasn't the Blue Raiders' forte.

They shot 33.8 percent for the season (opponents shot 35.8). O'Neil shot 24 percent, Johnson 30 percent and Kanaskie 36 percent from long range. Impacting the perimeter minutes this season will be touted 6-4 junior Demetrius Green, who red-shirted last season after transferring from Daytona Beach (Fla.) Community Col-lege. Green averaged 11.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists there two years ago. Before that he finished runner-up to Tennessee All-American Chris Lofton for Mr. Basketball in Kentucky after getting 24 points and 11 rebounds in Lexington Catholic's state championship victory. Catholic finished No. 10 in USA Today's Top 25 thanks to Green, who was rated the state's second-best prospect.

Davis believes Green has the tools to make an impact similar to the ones made last year by Arkansas State's Adrian Banks and South Alabama's Daon Merritt. ''I hope Demetrius can be one of those types,'' Davis said. ''He had a great summer and a great sit-out year last season. But I don't think you really truly know about a guy until you get a chance to put him out there on the court.'' One newcomer at guard who has pleasantly surprised is 6-0 freshman Broderick Gilchrest. He averaged 14.5 points, 6.3 assists and 4.5 steals while leading Memphis Hamilton to a 39-0 season as a junior and scored 50 points in a game against Memphis White Station his senior year.

''He's looked like a junior that's been here for three years,'' Davis said. ''He can shoot from the perimeter and play the point.'' With guards seemingly crawling out from under the bench, it might not be uncommon for four of them to end up on the court together. The frontcourt appears thin, relatively speaking. There is experience at forward in 6-7 sophomore Desmond Yates (10.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg), and in the low post with 6-10, 250-pound junior Theryn Hudson (5.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Yates led the team in scoring 10 times as a freshman, and his 37 percent three-point shooting (19-51) was better than all of the guards save for the sparingly used Avery.

Still, Davis sees Yates spending a lot of time at power forward. ''In games where he averaged six or more rebounds, he averaged 20 points a game,'' Davis said. ''In games he averaged less than six rebounds, he averaged 8.5 points. I think 12 feet and in, Desmond is as good as any scorer in our league.'' Hudson's combination of height and thick body rarely ends up in the Sun Belt. But his first two seasons have generated pedestrian production.

''He had one double-double the entire season last year,'' Davis said. ''He got more aggressive in the spring and had his best summer since he's been here. Hopefully that'll help on the defensive end, too.'' Another talent who could blossom is 6-9 sophomore Dino Hair (1.9 ppg, 0.9 rpg), who averaged around five minutes in 26 games last season during his first year back from a knee injury. Hair, a former Mr. Basketball in Mississippi, made 3-of-7 three-pointers last season. Two of those came during his eight-point, 10-minute performance in the league tournament win at Troy. Two JUCO newcomers in the frontcourt are 6-5 junior Dexter Powell (14.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and 6-8 junior Uriah Hethington (8.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg), who played at Wabash Valley (Ill.) and Okaloosa Walton (Fla.), respectively. Hethington was rated the No. 1 JUCO center after averaging 12.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocked shots during his freshman season.

Also aiding a top 50 signing class -- at least in the opinion of one recruiting analyst -- for Davis are 6-5 freshman swingman Josh Sain and 6-2 freshman Antwaun Boyd. Sain led Liberty Tech Magnet to back-to-back Class AA state titles and was a finalist for Tennessee's Mr. Basketball. He capped a state tournament MVP award with a 34-point, 14-rebound performance in the championship game his senior year, which ended with his team being ranked No. 13 by USA Today, and scored 24 points against perennial prep power Oak Hill.

''Sain was a really good high school player and he's got a chance to be a good player,'' Davis said. ''But he's got a ways to go from a maturity standpoint.'' Boyd was ranked as one of Indiana's top 10 players by several services after averaging 20 points, eight rebounds and three assists for Anderson High School. Davis appears to have his best collection of depth and athleticism to date. It's a good thing, because the Sun Belt will be a veteran league, one that should be closer to its confer-ence RPI in 2005 (13th) than the No. 20 ranking it earned last season. ''I like our returning guys,'' Davis said. ''The great thing about it is that we've got our whole team back for the next two years.'' Not that Davis is gearing towards March 2009. Indeed, there's no time like the present in Murfreesboro.

''I almost hate to say it,'' Davis said, ''but if we can stay healthy, I really like where we are.'' If Green adapts smoothly and Hudson progresses, the Blue Raiders should be a quality team come January. And with the depth compiled here, those might not even be prerequisites.

BLUE RIBBON ANALYSIS

BACKCOURT: A

BENCH/DEPTH: A-

FRONTCOURT: B

INTANGIBLES: A-